A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Just sayin’. Can’t say how it would have worked out.

 

I can accept the results that happened…

[moonslav59]

Hypothetical histories are moon's domain.

 

No comment.

 

BTW, I expected some response to this post:

 

Re-visiting the Catcher-Pitcher dynamics on the Sox in 2023.

 

Bello

w Wong 3.27 ERA/.727 OPSA (321 PAs)

w McGuire 4.05/.764 (256)

 

Pivetta

w Wong 3.38 ERA/.639 OPSA (280 PAs)

w McGuire 6.36/ .881 (211)

 

Crawford

w Wong 4.89 ERA/.767 OPSA (301 PAs)

W McGuire 2.81 ERA/.481 (98)

 

Paxton

w Wong 4.58 ERA/.724 OPSA (316 PAs)

w McGuire 4.70 ERA/.846 (73)

 

Houck

w Wong 5.21 ERA/.734 OPSA (329 PAs)

w McGuire 4.91 ERA/.833 (48)

 

Sale

w Wong 3.31 ERA/ .641 OPSA (284 PAs)

w McGuire 11.25 ERA/ 1.061 (64) Major unbalanced samples

 

Wink

w Wong 3.56 ERA/.751 OPSA (181 PAs)

w McGuire 1.42 ERA/ ,619 (111)

 

Whitlock

w Wong 5.52 ERA/.921 OPSA (198 PAs)

w McGuire 5.40 ERA/.734 (70)

 

Kluber

w. Wong 6.00 ERA/.918 OPSA (51 PAs)

w McGuire 7.33 ERA/.982 (206) Major Unbalanced sample sizes

 

Martin

w Wong 1.36 ERA/.615 (129 PAs)

w McGuire 0.73 ERA/.350 (44)

 

Jansen

w Wong 3.86 ERA/ .743 (132 PAs)

w McGuire 2.08 ERA/.487 (47)

 

Some sample sizes are rather small and or lop-sided. Judge for yourself.

[Bellhorn04]

No comment.

 

BTW, I expected some response to this post:

 

Re-visiting the Catcher-Pitcher dynamics on the Sox in 2023.

 

Bello

w Wong 3.27 ERA/.727 OPSA (321 PAs)

w McGuire 4.05/.764 (256)

 

Pivetta

w Wong 3.38 ERA/.639 OPSA (280 PAs)

w McGuire 6.36/ .881 (211)

 

Crawford

w Wong 4.89 ERA/.767 OPSA (301 PAs)

W McGuire 2.81 ERA/.481 (98)

 

Paxton

w Wong 4.58 ERA/.724 OPSA (316 PAs)

w McGuire 4.70 ERA/.846 (73)

 

Houck

w Wong 5.21 ERA/.734 OPSA (329 PAs)

w McGuire 4.91 ERA/.833 (48)

 

Sale

w Wong 3.31 ERA/ .641 OPSA (284 PAs)

w McGuire 11.25 ERA/ 1.061 (64) Major unbalanced samples

 

Wink

w Wong 3.56 ERA/.751 OPSA (181 PAs)

w McGuire 1.42 ERA/ ,619 (111)

 

Whitlock

w Wong 5.52 ERA/.921 OPSA (198 PAs)

w McGuire 5.40 ERA/.734 (70)

 

Kluber

w. Wong 6.00 ERA/.918 OPSA (51 PAs)

w McGuire 7.33 ERA/.982 (206) Major Unbalanced sample sizes

 

Martin

w Wong 1.36 ERA/.615 (129 PAs)

w McGuire 0.73 ERA/.350 (44)

 

Jansen

w Wong 3.86 ERA/ .743 (132 PAs)

w McGuire 2.08 ERA/.487 (47)

 

Some sample sizes are rather small and or lop-sided. Judge for yourself.

 

I over-reacted. Mea culpa. I have no problem admitting I was wrong. I was wrong about Song, too.

[sk7326]

Trevor Story's 3 for 6 somehow got him UP to .190.

 

Trevor Story somehow is above replacement level despite this.

 

It's a tough combo to pull off.

[Bellhorn04]

Trevor Story's 3 for 6 somehow got him UP to .190.

 

Trevor Story somehow is above replacement level despite this.

 

It's a tough combo to pull off.

 

He's a very good fielder.

[sk7326]

He's a very good fielder.

 

Without a doubt. It is why I am still a little bit optimistic. He can't be this bad a hitter for real. The thing is - the hard contact is still there, but the "bat hitting the ball" bit is not. Is that timing or bat speed. We'll have to figure that out in 2024.

[moonslav59]

I over-reacted. Mea culpa. I have no problem admitting I was wrong. I was wrong about Song, too.

 

I still like Wong better, on O and D, but the word on McGuire was that he was good on D. I figured we'd end up seeing improvement from him, eventually.

 

Wong's bat has impressed me. Although I think Plawecki was pretty good on D, and Vaz had some good numbers in some areas of defense, I like our catcher D better, now. I had hoped our 2023 could come close to our 2022 catcher offense, and they have done just that!

 

.694 in 2022

.712 in 2023

 

Other positions:

.683 1B> .859

.724 2B> .649

.856 3B> .828

.815 SS> .641 (79 RBI> 66 RBI)

.694 LF> .820

.671 CF> .842

.661 RF> .768

.763 DH> .774

 

+.176 1B

+.171 CF

+.126 LF

+.107 RF

+.011 DH

 

-.028 3B (kinda the same.)

-.075 2B (Had Urias and Reyes played 2B all year, this may have been not so bad.)

-.174 SS (Bogey is at .756, so we would have seen something near -.059 had we kept him.)

 

The improvement in OF offense has been astounding:

.676 2022

.809 2023

[moonslav59]

He's a very good fielder.

 

It shows how important the metrics place on DD defense.

 

If Story can just hit .730-.760, next year, and stay healthy, he may lead the team in fWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

It shows how important the metrics place on DD defense.

 

If Story can just hit .730-.760, next year, and stay healthy, he may lead the team in fWAR.

 

It's important. Not quite important enough to save last year's head-scratcher, though.

[moonslav59]

It's important. Not quite important enough to save last year's head-scratcher, though.

 

SS defense is worth way more than CF defense.

[moonslav59]

Taking small sample sizes and projecting to 650 PAs often raises eyebrows, but here are some fWAR guesstimates on 2023 Sox numbers at 650 PAs:

 

5.8 Abreu

4.3 Duran

4.2 Duvall

3.7 Rafaela

3.0 Devers

2.9 Verdugo

2.5 Reyes

2.1 Turner

2.0 Casas

2.0 Wong

2.0 McGuire

0.9 Yoshida

0.6 Refsnyder

0.0 Story & Urias

[Bellhorn04]

SS defense is worth way more than CF defense.

 

Can you document this with a great fielding/terrible hitting SS?

[moonslav59]

Can you document this with a great fielding/terrible hitting SS?

 

I wasn't hinting that terrible hitting SSs can be of great value, overall, due to spectacular defense, but one can be a significant plus on fWAR while being a minus on offense.

 

2018-2023 fWAR Short Stops (6 year sample size)

13.3 fWAR Brandon Crawford (-13.7 Offense and +58.4 defense)

10.5 Nick Ahmed (-48.9 O & +83.9 D)

9.0 Elvis Andrus (-42.8 0 & +40.4 D)

 

Some SSs who have very high fWARs based more on D than O, but are still okay to good on O:

31.8 Lindor (highest fWAR as a SS in MLB) +88.1 O and +104.3 D

19.4 Swanson (7th best fWAR) +20.0 O and +67.1 D (The guy I wanted us to sign)

10.0 Baez (8th in fWAR) +13.0 O and +74.1 D

 

BTW, Story has been....

+18.2

+59.0 on O (6th best O number out of top 9)

+35.4 on D (5th best D number out of top 9)

 

Bogey

+25.7 (3rd best)

+128.1 on O (second best O number out of all SSs- T Turner at 135.0)

+15.0 on D (The worst D number out of the top 9 fWAR SSs.)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

-.174 SS (Bogey is at .756, so we would have seen something near -.059 had we kept him.)

 

 

 

Among NL shortstops, Bogaerts is third in WAR, behind Lindor and Swanson.

 

Forget about his SD contract; if the Sox had just signed him for what they paid Story -- instead of Story, but at the same time... which most folks agree Xander would've taken at the time -- things might be a bit more positive around here these days.

[notin]

Among NL shortstops, Bogaerts is third in WAR, behind Lindor and Swanson.

 

Forget about his SD contract; if the Sox had just signed him for what they paid Story -- instead of Story, but at the same time... which most folks agree Xander would've taken at the time -- things might be a bit more positive around here these days.

 

“Most folks” don’t matter. No one knows if Bogaerts would have accepted it. It is a safe bet that his agent, whom he pays for the advice of, would very, very, very likely have said “they didn’t pay you enough last time. Let’s see what the rest of the league has to offer.”

 

I might need 3 or 4 more “very”’s in there…

[moonslav59]

Among NL shortstops, Bogaerts is third in WAR, behind Lindor and Swanson.

 

Forget about his SD contract; if the Sox had just signed him for what they paid Story -- instead of Story, but at the same time... which most folks agree Xander would've taken at the time -- things might be a bit more positive around here these days.

 

No doubt. Big "if" though, as we do not know Bogey would have accepted $160M/6 of even $200M/6, at any point in his time with the Sox.

 

I agree, though, if it was possible, it would have been better, so far.

[Nick]

No doubt. Big "if" though, as we do not know Bogey would have accepted $160M/6 of even $200M/6, at any point in his time with the Sox.

 

I agree, though, if it was possible, it would have been better, so far.

Give me a break with this constant Monday am quarterbacking.

 

I seem to recall 90% of this board thinking Xander was subpar defensive shortstop

 

Moon himself often said just to sign a defensive shortstop and move Xander to another position.

 

Of course he will say he never said it.

 

Make up yor f***ing minds.

 

Betts is gone. Xander is gone. Xander got exactly what he wanted. He took the $$$$ and ran.

 

Quit living in a dream land. There is no such thing as hometown discount.

 

What I want Bloom to do this winter in to spend real money to sign real starters. Not guys coming off injury.

 

Paxton experiment has run its course. He is broken down. Quit wasting $10M on utility player such as Kike.

 

We have several young talent on the cheap on our roster. It's time to spend $25M on 3 starting pitchers.

 

We at leat have a good defensive shortstop. Yep I think Bloom overpaid but it's a done deal.

 

2024 should be Sale's last year. His money will come off in 2025. Essentially we'll have one year overlap with 3 new, well paid starters.

 

Make a trade if we must. I am not sure if that is doable without opening up a hole in our current lineup.

 

Stay focused. 3 solid starters will give us chance to make the playoffs.

 

We actually lose close to $50M between Sale, Jansen and Martin after 2024.KMaybe Houck Whitlock Kutter can man the 7-9 innings.

 

Bloim has done a good job having young core position players in place. We have 3 big contracts in Devers Yoshida and Story. Others come cheap. We can spend the money elsewhere.

 

The biggest mistake we made in 2023 was thinking Kluber was a serviceable starter and Kike can be a shortstop.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Nick

[Larry Cook]

Give me a break with this constant Monday am quarterbacking.

 

I seem to recall 90% of this board thinking Xander was subpar defensive shortstop

 

Moon himself often said just to sign a defensive shortstop and move Xander to another position.

 

Of course he will say he never said it.

 

Make up yor f***ing minds.

 

Betts is gone. Xander is gone. Xander got exactly what he wanted. He took the $$$$ and ran.

 

Quit living in a dream land. There is no such thing as hometown discount.

 

What I want Bloom to do this winter in to spend real money to sign real starters. Not guys coming off injury.

 

Paxton experiment has run its course. He is broken down. Quit wasting $10M on utility player such as Kike.

 

We have several young talent on the cheap on our roster. It's time to spend $25M on 3 starting pitchers.

 

We at leat have a good defensive shortstop. Yep I think Bloom overpaid but it's a done deal.

 

2024 should be Sale's last year. His money will come off in 2025. Essentially we'll have one year overlap with 3 new, well paid starters.

 

Make a trade if we must. I am not sure if that is doable without opening up a hole in our current lineup.

 

Stay focused. 3 solid starters will give us chance to make the playoffs.

 

We actually lose close to $50M between Sale, Jansen and Martin after 2024.KMaybe Houck Whitlock Kutter can man the 7-9 innings.

 

Bloim has done a good job having young core position players in place. We have 3 big contracts in Devers Yoshida and Story. Others come cheap. We can spend the money elsewhere.

 

The biggest mistake we made in 2023 was thinking Kluber was a serviceable starter and Kike can be a shortstop.

 

1.) sign snell, Hang’em Chaim has a history with him I think.

2.) sign inmaga the lhp the Japanese are posting.

3.) sign the best lhrp on the market.

[moonslav59]

Give me a break with this constant Monday am quarterbacking.

 

I seem to recall 90% of this board thinking Xander was subpar defensive shortstop

 

Moon himself often said just to sign a defensive shortstop and move Xander to another position.

 

Of course he will say he never said it.

 

 

I will not only repeat it, I'll double down.

 

Bogey is not a good defensive SS. Nowhere will you ever find me saying I did not want him to return, or that he was a net negative value.

 

I liked the Story signing, and before I knew of his injury, assumed he'd play SS and Bogey 2B. If they were both on the Sox, now, I'd have the exact same position.

 

I'm not sure where this tirade is coming from.

[moonslav59]

1.) sign snell, Hang’em Chaim has a history with him I think.

2.) sign inmaga the lhp the Japanese are posting.

3.) sign the best lhrp on the market.

 

I'd put a big RH'd hitter before the LH'd RP'er on the list, but adding pitching is never a bad idea.

 

I think we all pretty much agree on needing 2 or more solid SP'ers.

[Nick]

I will not only repeat it, I'll double down.

 

Bogey is not a good defensive SS. Nowhere will you ever find me saying I did not want him to return, or that he was a net negative value.

 

I liked the Story signing, and before I knew of his injury, assumed he'd play SS and Bogey 2B. If they were both on the Sox, now, I'd have the exact same position.

 

I'm not sure where this tirade is coming from.

 

Not really directed at you. I am just tired of rehashing both Betts and Xander departures.

 

I just want to focus on 2024.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Bello a success.

 

Whitlock

Houck

Kutter

Winckowski

Walter

Murphy

 

It's very obvious how difficult it is for Sox to develop starting pitchers. Only Bello is a lock.

 

Others seem destined for bullpen no matter how much I want them to be starters.

 

Then you add injuries. Sale Paxton Eovaldi (had we signed him).

 

It looks me we need to sign 3 starting pitchers at $25M apiece and hope two out of three works out.

 

Does MLB need to expand rosters? Allow 15 pitchers on the staff?

 

Or at the very least allow AAA to Majors and back transaction easier process and less punitive?

Edited September 10, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Not really directed at you. I am just tired of rehashing both Betts and Xander departures.

 

I just want to focus on 2024.

 

Well, you did say this...

 

I seem to recall 90% of this board thinking Xander was subpar defensive shortstop

 

Moon himself often said just to sign a defensive shortstop and move Xander to another position.

 

Of course he will say he never said it.

 

I'm focused on 2024, too.

 

I think we can be strong contenders with 3-4 major additions:

 

SP1

 

SP2

 

RH'd bat for CF/RF and or LH's RP'er.

[Nick]

Is there much difference between Casas of 2022 and Abreu of 2023 in Seprember?

 

I would love to have Abreu in our core young group.

 

What more can he do in AAA. We already know he can hit.

[moonslav59]

Is there much difference between Casas of 2022 and Abreu of 2023 in Seprember?

 

I would love to have Abreu in our core young group.

 

What more can he do in AAA. We already know he can hit.

 

He does look real good, but more time is needed to be sure.

 

We do need to set up 2024 for he and Rafaela to have a chance to win a FT job, or at least share one.

Edited September 10, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

We have the tied for the 15th best record in MLB- about as mediocre as one can be. (14 better and 14 worse)

 

-2 from MIN 12th

-1.5 from AZ 13th

-1.0 from MIA 14th

 

Tied with CIN

 

We are 14th in run differential at +18

 

AZ & MIA have better records but negative run diff's

SDP are +61 but are 10 games under .500.

 

Edited September 11, 2023 by moonslav59

[Nick]

We have the tied for the 15th best record in MLB- about as mediocre as one can be. (14 better and 14 worse)

 

-2 from MIN 12th

-1.5 from AZ 13th

-1.0 from MIA 14th

 

Tied with CIN

 

We are 14th in run differential at +18

 

AZ & MIA have better records but negative run diff's

SDP are +61 but are 10 games under .500.

 

Thus proving that most of us fans are bit delusional thinking we have realistic chance at trade deadline.

 

It's better % to trade anything of value...Paxton comes to mind.

 

I do think there's compensation attached to Paxton.

[Nick]

Positional core group.

 

CC Wong 5

1B Casas 5

2B

3B Devers 10

SS Story 5

DH Yoshida 4

LF Duran 5

CF Rafaela 6

RF Abreu 6

 

That's $76M for 9 spots. Relatively cheap. Go buy starting pitching..

Edited September 11, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Positional core group.

 

CC Wong 5

1B Casas 5

2B

3B Devers 10

SS Story 5

DH Yoshida 4

LF Duran 5

CF Rafaela 6

RF Abreu 6

 

That's $76M for 9 spots. Relatively cheap. Go buy starting pitching..

 

I'm hopeful Urias can fill that 2B slot well.

 

In his previous 2 seasons (2021-2022) he put up a 6.3 bWAR.

 

Good defense.

 

Per 650 PAs

.244 24 75 with a .766 OPS.

 

I realize you are just listing the longer term guys, but we should be covered at 2B for a couple years, or until Mayer and or Yorke start to squeeze our MI.

 

BTW, I'm liking our foundation.

[moonslav59]

Positional core group.

 

CC Wong 5 (McGuire 2)

1B Casas 5

2B

3B Devers 10

SS Story 5

DH Yoshida 4

LF Duran 5

CF Rafaela 6

RF Abreu 6

 

That's $76M for 9 spots. Relatively cheap. Go buy starting pitching..

 

Story has 4 years left.

 

CC Wong 5

1B Casas 5

2B EValdez 6, Reyes 2 (Urias 2)

3B Devers 10

SS Story 4

DH Yoshida 4

LF Duran 5 (Refsnyder 2)

CF Rafaela 6

RF Abreu 6 (Dugo 1)

 

Longer Term

C Teel, Scott, Garcia, Hickey, Brannon

1B Dalbec, Jordan, Kavadas

2B Yorke, Romero, Anderson

3B Zanetello, Bonaci

SS Mayer, Cespedes, DHam

OF Anthony, Bleis, Castro, Paulino