A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

On the list of Greatest Omissions from Cooperstown - Non-Steroidal Edition, Tiant ranks number two behind Pete Rose. So that makes him the top omission about whom we can ask “why?”

 

Evans is a bigger omission than Tiant.

 

The biggest omissions in baseball would be Grich and Dahlen.

[mvp 78]

Also, finishing the game is a different point than finishing the 8th.

 

Pedro had gone over 115-120 pitches a few times in 2003 and after. It's not like demanding 9 IP and 140 pitches.

 

Just because someone has done it a few times doesn't mean you should do it with the season on the line.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also, finishing the game is a different point than finishing the 8th.

 

Pedro had gone over 115-120 pitches a few times in 2003 and after. It's not like demanding 9 IP and 140 pitches.

 

But in Gm 7 '03, he was "finished" after the 7th... we all saw Pedro labor through that last frame with the lead, then walk off the mound tapping his heart and pointing to the sky like he always did at the end of a hard day's night, before getting glad-handed in the dugout. He was done, body and mind shut down.

 

In subsequent interviews, Pedro admits Grady then asked him to go back out in the 8th just to get Nick Johnson, the leadoff batter -- which he did (pop-out to short). Then Grady changed his mind again and left him to face Jeter...

[notin]

Evans is a bigger omission than Tiant.

 

The biggest omissions in baseball would be Grich and Dahlen.

 

I do credit you for pointing out to me what a huge omission Grich was, although bWAR tells us Lou Whitaker was a bigger one…

[notin]

Just because someone has done it a few times doesn't mean you should do it with the season on the line.

 

That’s also an argument for avoiding the Sox lackluster bullpen in 2003…

[moonslav59]

On the list of Greatest Omissions from Cooperstown - Non-Steroidal Edition, Tiant ranks number two behind Pete Rose. So that makes him the top omission about whom we can ask “why?”

 

Tiant not being in the HOF is one reason I barely pay attention to that whole clownshow.

[moonslav59]

Just because someone has done it a few times doesn't mean you should do it with the season on the line.

 

I know all the reasons why he should have been Yanked.

 

[moonslav59]

But in Gm 7 '03, he was "finished" after the 7th... we all saw Pedro labor through that last frame with the lead, then walk off the mound tapping his heart and pointing to the sky like he always did at the end of a hard day's night, before getting glad-handed in the dugout. He was done, body and mind shut down.

 

In subsequent interviews, Pedro admits Grady then asked him to go back out in the 8th just to get Nick Johnson, the leadoff batter -- which he did (pop-out to short). Then Grady changed his mind again and left him to face Jeter...

 

I get all that, and it's been rehashed dozens of times.

 

I just don't see many things as "mistakes" that others do, I guess. BTW, I would not have viewed it as a mistake to yank him, either. There is a lot of gray area in these types of choices. I realize some see this as totally black & white with no gray, and that's fine. I see a few things as black and white that others see a lot of gray, too.

[mvp 78]

I do credit you for pointing out to me what a huge omission Grich was, although bWAR tells us Lou Whitaker was a bigger one…

 

Grich 69.1 fWAR, 2008 G

Lou 68.1 fWAR, 2390 G

 

Grich was better. Lou just held on for an extra season. It's close enough where it's just personal preference. I tend to look at Jaffe's HOF JAWS list on bref and go through that as a reference point, FYI.

[mvp 78]

Tiant not being in the HOF is one reason I barely pay attention to that whole clownshow.

 

Are you as upset about Rick Reuschel not being in? He has a better case than Tiant.

[mvp 78]

That’s also an argument for avoiding the Sox lackluster bullpen in 2003…

 

I'd go with lackluster before a tired Pedro.

[notin]

I'd go with lackluster before a tired Pedro.

 

 

Hindsight agrees. But again, I recognize the dilemma Grady was in…

[notin]

Are you as upset about Rick Reuschel not being in? He has a better case than Tiant.

 

Or Kevin Brown?

[mvp 78]

Or Kevin Brown?

 

Deeply unlikable person, but yes.

[Bellhorn04]

But in Gm 7 '03, he was "finished" after the 7th... we all saw Pedro labor through that last frame with the lead, then walk off the mound tapping his heart and pointing to the sky like he always did at the end of a hard day's night, before getting glad-handed in the dugout. He was done, body and mind shut down.

 

In subsequent interviews, Pedro admits Grady then asked him to go back out in the 8th just to get Nick Johnson, the leadoff batter -- which he did (pop-out to short). Then Grady changed his mind again and left him to face Jeter...

 

Right - this is the essence of it right here.

 

This plus the fact that Theo reportedly met with Grady before the game and basically told him he had to get Pedro out of there no matter what after 105 pitches.

 

Everybody thought Pedro was out of the game, everybody except Grady...

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I don't have that many regrets about 2003 any more. 2003 motivated the Sox to get Foulke and Schilling and Francona.

 

And Pedro pitched a beauty in Game 3 of the 2004 WS.

 

For me it was all good after that.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Bellhorn04

[Maxbialystock]

I get all that, and it's been rehashed dozens of times.

 

I just don't see many things as "mistakes" that others do, I guess. BTW, I would not have viewed it as a mistake to yank him, either. There is a lot of gray area in these types of choices. I realize some see this as totally black & white with no gray, and that's fine. I see a few things as black and white that others see a lot of gray, too.

 

Very sensible, as always. But you have omitted one central consideration. Grady Little wasn't much of a MLB manager: he lasted 2 seasons with the Sox and 2 more with the Dodgers.

 

Grady's decision to leave Pedro in was a godsend for John Henry and his senior management team.

[mvp 78]

Right - this is the essence of it right here.

 

This plus the fact that Theo reportedly met with Grady before the game and basically told him he had to get Pedro out of there no matter what after 105 pitches.

 

Everybody thought Pedro was out of the game, everybody except Grady...

 

Grady wasn't a good manager. He had a good team and just sat back and let things happen around him. He was very slow to react.

[Bellhorn04]

Grady's comments after getting fired by the Sox were ultra-weird. Something about how he was going to become another ghost for the team.

[moonslav59]

Here is a pretty interesting look back at that game.

 

Play the Pedro interview.

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/10/16/17982722/grady-little-pedro-martinez-15-year-anniversary-2003-alcs

[Nick]

So much for trashing our farm system ranking. I have learned that so called experts are not so expert.

[mvp 78]

So much for trashing our farm system ranking. I have learned that so called experts are not so expert.

 

I think it just shows that you can't just go by one expert. You need to take all of the available resources into account. Even ignoring Law's take on the Sox having a bad starting pitching pipeline would do a disservice to talking about the state of the farm system. Law is the outlier on the overall ranking, but his comments were justified.

[Hugh2]

BA ranking as #10 says something. When Law had us low the naysayers were out in full force, that ranking was to be taken seriously but now that someone else says we are a top 10 system they have nothing to say.

[mvp 78]

BA ranking as #10 says something. When Law had us low the naysayers were out in full force, that ranking was to be taken seriously but now that someone else says we are a top 10 system they have nothing to say.

 

My personal opinion is that they are somewhere 10-15.

 

AAA - Aside from Bello, the pitchers that have made it to BOS haven't been very successful (Crawford, Winckowski). Mata has potential, but is probably just a reliever. Rafaela is most likely the only impact bat. I'm not sold on Duran, Hamilton or Abreu.

AA - Lots of hitters to watch (Kavadas, Scott, Lugo, Abreu), but the only guy with a clear carrying MLB tool is Yorke. Unfortunately, he had a terrible season last year and has an injury history. The current projected pitchers for AA are rough. This is the 2020 draft class that was restricted to only 4 rounds for the Sox. Maybe it'd look better if there was a normal draft that year? IDK.

A+/A - The strength of the organization with Bleis, Mayer, Hickey, Romero, Bonaci, Paulino, Blaze, Roman, Perales, ERC, Winkelman. Most of these guys are just years away. The only guy who could make a short term impact would be Mayer. I'm not sure anyone else would be in BOS before late 2025.

FCL/DSL - These guys are really far away. Who knows? Includes Brannon, Coffey, Freili, Alcantara, Fraymi, Yoeilin.

 

It is a very heavy, bat first organization. Is that a guiding principal for Chaim? We've seen lots of high ranked prospects go down with arm injuries recently. Some high drafted arms can't even get out of AA. There's just a lot of variance. Maybe it's just circumstance because other organizations have gone heavy with arms (Cleveland, Angels)? The Dodgers only drafted one pitcher in the first 10 rounds last year and they are one of the best organizations in baseball year in and year out (only 4 pitchers taken in all 20 rounds).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My personal opinion is that they are somewhere 10-15.

 

AAA - Aside from Bello, the pitchers that have made it to BOS haven't been very successful (Crawford, Winckowski). Mata has potential, but is probably just a reliever. Rafaela is most likely the only impact bat. I'm not sold on Duran, Hamilton or Abreu.

AA - Lots of hitters to watch (Kavadas, Scott, Lugo, Abreu), but the only guy with a clear carrying MLB tool is Yorke. Unfortunately, he had a terrible season last year and has an injury history. The current projected pitchers for AA are rough. This is the 2020 draft class that was restricted to only 4 rounds for the Sox. Maybe it'd look better if there was a normal draft that year? IDK.

A+/A - The strength of the organization with Bleis, Mayer, Hickey, Romero, Bonaci, Paulino, Blaze, Roman, Perales, ERC, Winkelman. Most of these guys are just years away. The only guy who could make a short term impact would be Mayer. I'm not sure anyone else would be in BOS before late 2025.

FCL/DSL - These guys are really far away. Who knows? Includes Brannon, Coffey, Freili, Alcantara, Fraymi, Yoeilin.

 

It is a very heavy, bat first organization. Is that a guiding principal for Chaim? We've seen lots of high ranked prospects go down with arm injuries recently. Some high drafted arms can't even get out of AA. There's just a lot of variance. Maybe it's just circumstance because other organizations have gone heavy with arms (Cleveland, Angels)? The Dodgers only drafted one pitcher in the first 10 rounds last year and they are one of the best organizations in baseball year in and year out (only 4 pitchers taken in all 20 rounds).

 

No love for Fitzy?

[mvp 78]

No love for Fitzy?

 

Not really.

 

He's 28 and in AAA.

 

2022 OPS by month:

APR 1064!

MAY 803

JUN 571

JUL 439

AUG 800

SEP 531

 

If he was consistently OPS'ing 800+, maybe he'd be interesting, but those bad stretches are absolutely brutal and dragged down his season OPS to 702. He had 10 HR through May and only 6 afterwards. 524 OPS vs LHP, 234 OBP.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not really.

 

He's 28 and in AAA.

 

2022 OPS by month:

APR 1064!

MAY 803

JUN 571

JUL 439

AUG 800

SEP 531

 

If he was consistently OPS'ing 800+, maybe he'd be interesting, but those bad stretches are absolutely brutal and dragged down his season OPS to 702. He had 10 HR through May and only 6 afterwards. 524 OPS vs LHP, 234 OBP.

 

He has his own line of t-shirts for sale in Worcester!

[moonslav59]

My personal opinion is that they are somewhere 10-15.

 

AAA - Aside from Bello, the pitchers that have made it to BOS haven't been very successful (Crawford, Winckowski). Mata has potential, but is probably just a reliever. Rafaela is most likely the only impact bat. I'm not sold on Duran, Hamilton or Abreu.

AA - Lots of hitters to watch (Kavadas, Scott, Lugo, Abreu), but the only guy with a clear carrying MLB tool is Yorke. Unfortunately, he had a terrible season last year and has an injury history. The current projected pitchers for AA are rough. This is the 2020 draft class that was restricted to only 4 rounds for the Sox. Maybe it'd look better if there was a normal draft that year? IDK.

A+/A - The strength of the organization with Bleis, Mayer, Hickey, Romero, Bonaci, Paulino, Blaze, Roman, Perales, ERC, Winkelman. Most of these guys are just years away. The only guy who could make a short term impact would be Mayer. I'm not sure anyone else would be in BOS before late 2025.

FCL/DSL - These guys are really far away. Who knows? Includes Brannon, Coffey, Freili, Alcantara, Fraymi, Yoeilin.

 

It is a very heavy, bat first organization. Is that a guiding principal for Chaim? We've seen lots of high ranked prospects go down with arm injuries recently. Some high drafted arms can't even get out of AA. There's just a lot of variance. Maybe it's just circumstance because other organizations have gone heavy with arms (Cleveland, Angels)? The Dodgers only drafted one pitcher in the first 10 rounds last year and they are one of the best organizations in baseball year in and year out (only 4 pitchers taken in all 20 rounds).

 

I can see not counting Whitlock, as he was from the Yankee system, but is Houck too far back to count?

[mvp 78]

He has his own line of t-shirts for sale in Worcester!

 

Rubes.

[mvp 78]

I can see not counting Whitlock, as he was from the Yankee system, but is Houck too far back to count?

 

Yeah. He has no impact on the current state of the farm system.