A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Bello is the first legitimate pitching prospect to come up through the system and pitch for the Red Sox in a while.

 

Disappointed about how few pitchers the Sox draft. At some point - hopefully in the very near future - that does have to change…

 

Even if it changes, that's a 3-4 year waiting time at best...

[notin]

Who is second best? Houck?

 

It’s a good thing we added Whitlock and Wink in other ways.

 

I meant to say starting pitcher.

 

I don’t like it, but Houck does qualify.

 

In fact, with Houck, Bello and Crawford all in the rotation right now, this might be the first time in a while the Sox have had 3 starting pitchers that came up through the system…

[Dipre]

I meant to say starting pitcher.

 

I don’t like it, but Houck does qualify.

 

In fact, with Houck, Bello and Crawford all in the rotation right now, this might be the first time in a while the Sox have had 3 starting pitchers that came up through the system…

 

2012 had Lester, Bucholz and Doubront.

[Duran Is The Man]

Bello is the first legitimate pitching prospect to come up through the system and pitch for the Red Sox in a while.

 

Disappointed about how few pitchers the Sox draft. At some point - hopefully in the very near future - that does have to change…

 

yeah, he is, and i have very high hopes for him, but outside of him, it's slim pickings.

[Dipre]

2015 had Joe Kelly, Clay Bucholz and Henry Owens

 

Last time the Sox had three homegrown guys in the rotation.

[notin]

2015 had Joe Kelly, Clay Bucholz and Henry Owens

 

Last time the Sox had three homegrown guys in the rotation.

 

Joe Kelly wasn’t homegrown. He was acquired via trade with Allen Craig for John Lackey

[notin]

2012 had Lester, Bucholz and Doubront.

 

11 years ago!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

If Bloom is teaching his financial KPIs, he’s probably safe for now. Fans -and understandably so - don’t care about this stuff and like everything measured in wins and losses. But as you said, profitability is the bottom line. Sure mediocrity (or worse) costs you that swing vote dollar from fans. But that money can’t be counted on.

 

The roles could be as simple as:

 

1. Bloom - staff the team within the budget

2. Cora - maximize the performance of that team

 

If that’s the case, who is on the hot seat?

 

I might have a one-word answer for this now: "projections." Our pre-season projections were not good. I think most of them had us at around .500 or a little over. Baseball analysts didn't think we were a good team, so that tends to point the blame more toward Bloom than Cora.

[Nick]

deGrom out for the year.

 

5 year $175M

 

I wanted Sox to sign him but I did not think he

would cost that much.

 

Expensive mistake.

[Dipre]

Worse than Kluber, go figure.

[moonslav59]

deGrom out for the year.

 

5 year $175M

 

I wanted Sox to sign him but I did not think he

would cost that much.

 

Expensive mistake.

 

Just days ago, some might have been thinking Bloom should have signed him, not Kluber.

 

It’s a crapshoot. I haven’t seen a FA pitcher since maybe Coke that looked like one I’d overpay to get, and even he ended up signing for more than the overpay I was thinking of.

 

I still think trading for one is the best idea, and it just because of our well documented past success going that route.

 

What would it have taken to get Castillo?

[notin]

Even if it changes, that's a 3-4 year waiting time at best...

 

If you get a college pitcher in the first round, he can beat that timeline…

[notin]

deGrom out for the year.

 

5 year $175M

 

I wanted Sox to sign him but I did not think he

would cost that much.

 

Expensive mistake.

 

Well they got more out of him than the Yankees have from Rodon…

[Jasonbay44]

Just days ago, some might have been thinking Bloom should have signed him, not Kluber.

 

It’s a crapshoot. I haven’t seen a FA pitcher since maybe Coke that looked like one I’d overpay to get, and even he ended up signing for more than the overpay I was thinking of.

 

I still think trading for one is the best idea, and it just because of our well documented past success going that route.

 

What would it have taken to get Castillo?

 

I honestly really don’t remember many people if any who wanted or thought Degrom was a legit possibility. It’s sucks for him, but the guy cannot stay healthy and it was pretty predictable that whoever signed him, would likely regret it.

[Bellhorn04]

Ref Man has an OBP of .425.

[Hugh2]

Even if it changes, that's a 3-4 year waiting time at best...

 

I'd also say the Sox do draft pitchers, roughly just as many pitchers as position players. The thing is they usually don't draft pitchers with their first couple picks, and the few times they have the last decade they've gone bust (Groome, Ball). I feel the Sox inability to develop homegrown starting pitching is truly a combination of factors.

 

1. their bias towards up-the-middle position players early on in the draft

2. Their ability to scout, draft, and develop arms.

3. Luck, I think luck plays a large role in it because developing pitching is really really hard and effectively you're trying to predict a human being's future. Which is also hard.

 

Can't do anything about #3 but 1-2 you can. And as you said, it takes 3-4 years to even notice those changes. For all we know they've made changes and have a great system in place now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd also say the Sox do draft pitchers, roughly just as many pitchers as position players. The thing is they usually don't draft pitchers with their first couple picks, and the few times they have the last decade they've gone bust (Groome, Ball). I feel the Sox inability to develop homegrown starting pitching is truly a combination of factors.

 

1. their bias towards up-the-middle position players early on in the draft

2. Their ability to scout, draft, and develop arms.

3. Luck, I think luck plays a large role in it because developing pitching is really really hard and effectively you're trying to predict a human being's future. Which is also hard.

 

Can't do anything about #3 but 1-2 you can. And as you said, it takes 3-4 years to even notice those changes. For all we know they've made changes and have a great system in place now.

 

Based on the organization's pre-Bloom history of trading for top starters, is it possible they have decided to continue stockpiling toolsy position players for deals later on? Speier's recent report on Red Sox international prospects was dominated by future "super-star" shortstops.

 

It's hard to believe they haven't liked any first-round pitching prospects for years and years, since... Matt Barnes, the guy who peaked as an All-Star reliever for half a season. I can't account for Trey Ball (and bet no one in the front office can, either).

[Hugh2]

Based on the organization's pre-Bloom history of trading for top starters, is it possible they have decided to continue stockpiling toolsy position players for deals later on? Speier's recent report on Red Sox international prospects was dominated by future "super-star" shortstops.

 

It's hard to believe they haven't liked any first-round pitching prospects for years and years, since... Matt Barnes, the guy who peaked as an All-Star reliever for half a season. I can't account for Trey Ball (and bet no one in the front office can, either).

 

I mean, you bring up an interesting point. The Sox player development department looks much better on the other side of the ball. You can always trade from a surplus for what you need.

 

Looking back at the last 10 years of the draft Sox have drafted 21 position players and 9 pitchers in rounds 1-3.

 

A few notable 1st round picks we forgot in that time frame. Michael Kopech, Tanner Houck.

[Dipre]

Drafting the best available players is a sound draft strategy. I'd argue their current draft strategy is sound overall. The problem appears to be more centered around the development aspect.

[Hugh2]

Kopech 2014

Houck 2017

 

Still, I agree that it is apparent the Sox have a bias towards position players. That point is true.

[Bellhorn04]

And Bloom keeps signing starters on one-year deals as bridges to...what, exactly?

[Dipre]

I'll also go out on a limb and argue that we shouldn't consider Houck a bust as an SP yet. The stuff is there, it's a matter of better control of the strike zone overall.

[Hugh2]

And Bloom keeps signing starters on one-year deals as bridges to...what, exactly?

 

A time to spend, ideally, which should be next year. Limit is reset and you have a much better starting pitcher class next year.

[Hugh2]

I'll also go out on a limb and argue that we shouldn't consider Houck a bust as an SP yet. The stuff is there, it's a matter of better control of the strike zone overall.

 

Things look a lot different if Houck/Bello/Whitlock are locking down the rotation next year and Crawford/Wink are on point out of the pen.

[Dipre]

A time to spend, ideally, which should be next year. Limit is reset and you have a much better starting pitcher class next year.

 

I have my preferred target over in Japan

[Bellhorn04]

A time to spend, ideally, which should be next year. Limit is reset and you have a much better starting pitcher class next year.

 

I'd like to see a comparison between this year's class and last year's. And if this year's really is much better, will prices be even more exorbitant?

[Hugh2]

I have my preferred target over in Japan

 

As is mine. We are talking Yama right?

 

If I was John Henry I'd be all over Yama next year, and then Roki the year after.

[Hugh2]

I'd like to see a comparison between this year's class and last year's. And if this year's really is much better, will prices be even more exorbitant?

 

Probably, but prices are always going to be exorbitant unless you want to go dumpster diving and take chances on guys like Kluber having one more season left.

 

If you're a G.M. and you're the most rational guy in the room, you will lose every single time. At some point, the Sox will have to throw some real money around if they want to sign a legit TOTRS.

 

I'm not sure how many more premium arms are available next season. WIthout counting if feels like just a few more but next years class is younger and has less injury concerns. DeGrome, Rodon, and Verlander were the top 3 arms last winter

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Bloom keeps signing starters on one-year deals as bridges to...what, exactly?

 

A Bridge Too Far: "a 1977 epic war film depicting Operation Market Garden, a failed Allied operation in Nazi-occupied Netherlands during World War II."

 

This was my point about Bloom surrounding Devers with a load of veteran players in their mid to late-30s: who -- if any of those guys -- will be part of the core of his next awesome Red Sox team? If the answer is none, then Bloom is just filling out the laundry to field a team of placeholders... until, he told us, we "know what's coming."

 

We hope it's a group of suddenly-promoted, not-overhyped youngsters all maturing into the next Killer B's... but we won't be surprised if it's the next stale wave.

[mvp 78]

deGrom out for the year.

 

5 year $175M

 

I wanted Sox to sign him but I did not think he

would cost that much.

 

Expensive mistake.

 

deGrom and Rodon staying healthy weren't safe bets.