A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

If you get a college pitcher in the first round, he can beat that timeline…

 

https://www.milb.com/player/jack-leiter-683004

 

Technically they can, but nobody is a sure bet even college pitchers.

[mvp 78]

Ref Man has an OBP of .425.

 

It's what happens when you utilize a player correctly.

[mvp 78]

I'd also say the Sox do draft pitchers, roughly just as many pitchers as position players. The thing is they usually don't draft pitchers with their first couple picks, and the few times they have the last decade they've gone bust (Groome, Ball). I feel the Sox inability to develop homegrown starting pitching is truly a combination of factors.

 

1. their bias towards up-the-middle position players early on in the draft

2. Their ability to scout, draft, and develop arms.

3. Luck, I think luck plays a large role in it because developing pitching is really really hard and effectively you're trying to predict a human being's future. Which is also hard.

 

Can't do anything about #3 but 1-2 you can. And as you said, it takes 3-4 years to even notice those changes. For all we know they've made changes and have a great system in place now.

 

Well, if you aren't spending top of the draft capital or over slot capital on pitching, all your getting are value plays. Are those expected to work out into a a complete starting rotation? That doesn't seem like a safe bet to me.

[mvp 78]

I'll also go out on a limb and argue that we shouldn't consider Houck a bust as an SP yet. The stuff is there, it's a matter of better control of the strike zone overall.

 

He's 27. He's spent a few years working on a third pitch. He just isn't really able to turn a lineup over. Can you throw him out there as a 5th starter for a while and see if he figures it out sometime? Sure. I don't feel like his stuff really popped when he was pitching out of the pen.

[mvp 78]

And Bloom keeps signing starters on one-year deals as bridges to...what, exactly?

 

A bridge to the next bridge.

[Bellhorn04]

A bridge to the next bridge.

 

Or "kicking the problem down the road", as another saying goes.

[Dipre]

He's 27. He's spent a few years working on a third pitch. He just isn't really able to turn a lineup over. Can you throw him out there as a 5th starter for a while and see if he figures it out sometime? Sure. I don't feel like his stuff really popped when he was pitching out of the pen.

 

His slider is A++, but as you say he needs that third option to put away lefties and not get his fastball ambushed by righties.

[mvp 78]

His slider is A++, but as you say he needs that third option to put away lefties and not get his fastball ambushed by righties.

 

He's getting hit harder this year than in previous years and all 7 of his HR's are from LHB. He gets a decent amount of whiffs, but just can't seem to put guys away. It's frustrating because he's one average pitch away from being a 3rd starter.

[Hugh2]

Some names I think the Sox really should be in on next year.

 

Shohei Ohtani

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Lucas Giolito

Julio Urias

Blake Snell.

Amed Rosario

Jun Hoo Lee

Teoscar Hernandez

Michael Taylor

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

 

Would love to see 3-4 guys from this group with 2 of them being pitchers.

[mvp 78]

Some names I think the Sox really should be in on next year.

 

Shohei Ohtani

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Lucas Giolito

Julio Urias

Blake Snell.

Amed Rosario

Jun Hoo Lee

Teoscar Hernandez

Michael Taylor

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

 

Would love to see 3-4 guys from this group with 2 of them being pitchers.

 

I don't think the bats would be cost prohibitive (or that inspiring), but I don't see them getting 2 SP's out of that group. I'd be happy if they just added YY.

[Dipre]

He's getting hit harder this year than in previous years and all 7 of his HR's are from LHB. He gets a decent amount of whiffs, but just can't seem to put guys away. It's frustrating because he's one average pitch away from being a 3rd starter.

 

He either gets a changeup or splitter workin', or back to the BP it is.

[Dipre]

Some names I think the Sox really should be in on next year.

 

Shohei Ohtani

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Lucas Giolito

Julio Urias

Blake Snell.

Amed Rosario

Jun Hoo Lee

Teoscar Hernandez

Michael Taylor

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

 

Would love to see 3-4 guys from this group with 2 of them being pitchers.

 

Yamamoto is my spirit animal.

[Hugh2]

I don't think the bats would be cost prohibitive (or that inspiring), but I don't see them getting 2 SP's out of that group. I'd be happy if they just added YY.

 

Well, there are a few names I could add to the list if ONE of them was a big-time name like Ohtani or Yamamoto (Yamamoto feels like more of a Boston bet). Like Jordan Montgomery for example.

 

Yamamoto

Montgomery

Taylor

Rosario

 

That would be a nice haul, a perfect bridge to the next wave who can start helping you win now.

[Hugh2]

Yamamoto is my spirit animal.

 

Mine too, the more I read about him the more I like him. Scouts liked him more than Senga. I really like this Roki Sasaki kid I keep reading about too. John Henry doesn't have the balls for it but you wonder how marketable and profitable it would be to have 3 japanese superstars on one team (Yamamoto/Yoshida/Roki) And you can probably have all three of those guys signed for less than Ohtani. But I suspect the bidding for Yama and Roki will get pretty high.

[mvp 78]

Mine too, the more I read about him the more I like him. Scouts liked him more than Senga. I really like this Roki Sasaki kid I keep reading about too. John Henry doesn't have the balls for it but you wonder how marketable and profitable it would be to have 3 japanese superstars on one team (Yamamoto/Yoshida/Roki) And you can probably have all three of those guys signed for less than Ohtani. But I suspect the bidding for Yama and Roki will get pretty high.

 

I think the money for Ohtani will be stupid high. I'd rather go the other route and get a few players for my money than spend it all on one guy. One elbow injury and you're f***ed.

[Dipre]

Mine too, the more I read about him the more I like him. Scouts liked him more than Senga. I really like this Roki Sasaki kid I keep reading about too. John Henry doesn't have the balls for it but you wonder how marketable and profitable it would be to have 3 japanese superstars on one team (Yamamoto/Yoshida/Roki) And you can probably have all three of those guys signed for less than Ohtani. But I suspect the bidding for Yama and Roki will get pretty high.

 

The Yankees are willing to go balls to the wall for Yamamoto, another reason to try to sign the guy.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees are willing to go balls to the wall for Yamamoto, another reason to try to sign the guy.

 

Kind of a problem, too.

[Dipre]

Kind of a problem, too.

 

These aren't your father's Yankees.

[Hugh2]

I think the money for Ohtani will be stupid high. I'd rather go the other route and get a few players for my money than spend it all on one guy. One elbow injury and you're f***ed.

 

That's kind of been the Sox M.O. now......with mixed results.

[mvp 78]

That's kind of been the Sox M.O. now......with mixed results.

 

When Ohtani is going to get 600M, it's on a whole other level than the current penny pinching complaints.

 

You could get two 300M guys for that price. That's not really going cheap.

[Hugh2]

When Ohtani is going to get 600M, it's on a whole other level than the current penny pinching complaints.

 

You could get two 300M guys for that price. That's not really going cheap.

 

First off when is the last time the Sox gave anyone $300 million? I mean you have Devers but that's it, no other example and he was an extension and not a FA. No, middling moves look like your Trevor Storys, Kenley Jansens, Adam Duvalls, Nathan Eovaldi, and Michael Wachas of the world. We've seen that strategy tilt in both directions. No better example that the 2013/14 seasons, where Drew/Victorino//Napoli helped you win a WS and then all your investments fell off the bridge the next year and you stunk. To me that's a real bridge year, bridge year doesn't mean NOT going for it. I'd say technically the 2013 WS team was a team that won during bridge years between the 2004/7 team and the 2015-2018 team.

 

Yeah that's my argument, when I argue it's not worth going after Ohtani, but today I identify as someone who really really wants Ohtani on their team.

 

I'm also not so sure he gets 600, even 500 is pushing it but I think he could eclipse that. Yes, teams are going to go hard after him, but it's like that for the top free agent or two every year.

 

He's currently worth two 30 million players a year, but he's probably just going to be a DH 5-6 years into the contract. That puts him at about $450.....someone probably throws another 50 million at him somewhere.

 

This is why I like Yamamoto, he might just as good and will cost 1/3 of Ohtani and that's assuming worse case scenario in a bidding for Yama. He's also 5-6 years younger than Ohtani too.

[Dipre]

Ohtani is a mighty high injury risk for a guy that's going to end up making some small market team's entire payroll on a season-to-season basis.

[Hugh2]

Ohtani is a mighty high injury risk for a guy that's going to end up making some small market team's entire payroll on a season-to-season basis.

 

I'm not one of these fans that's going to rag on the Sox when they don't land Ohtani......but I won't be upset if John Henry channels his inner Cohen and goes 480/10 and brings him into Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not one of these fans that's going to rag on the Sox when they don't land Ohtani......but I won't be upset if John Henry channels his inner Cohen and goes 480/10 and brings him into Boston.

 

I don't think John has an inner Cohen.

[Hugh2]

I don't think John has an inner Cohen.

 

Yeah, well....he doesn't have to have a half-a-billion-dollar payroll to make some big splashes either.

[mvp 78]

I don't think John has an inner Cohen.

 

No, he cares too much about the small market clubs. He really hates Cohen.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, well....he doesn't have to have a half-a-billion-dollar payroll to make some big splashes either.

 

Henry thinks he's too smart to have to do that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Roki Sasaki is the guy. He's 21, 6'2 (compared to Yamamoto's 5'10), and in 44 innings so far this year has a WHIP of 0.614.

 

For his very young pro career, in 256 IP, Sasaki has a WHIP of 0.818.

 

For perspective, the lowest WHIP for a big league pitcher in the Wildcard Era (1995-23) is 0.890, for a reliever named Koji Uehara. The best WHIP for a guy with frames mainly as a starter is 0.986 by Tony Gonsolin. He is closely followed by deGrom 0.993 and Kershaw 1.004.

 

Sale's career WHIP is 1.047. Pedro's was 1.054.

[notin]

I don't think John has an inner Cohen.

 

Even if he did, Cohen had an outer Cohen that can outbid him…

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Roki Sasaki is the guy. He's 21, 6'2 (compared to Yamamoto's 5'10), and in 44 innings so far this year has a WHIP of 0.614.

 

For his very young pro career, in 256 IP, Sasaki has a WHIP of 0.818.

 

For perspective, the lowest WHIP for a big league pitcher in the Wildcard Era (1995-23) is 0.890, for a reliever named Koji Uehara. The best WHIP for a guy with frames mainly as a starter is 0.986 by Tony Gonsolin. He is closely followed by deGrom 0.993 and Kershaw 1.004.

 

Sale's career WHIP is 1.047. Pedro's was 1.054.

 

In 2000 Pedro had a WHIP of .737. In 1999 and 2002 he had a WHIP of .923.