A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jansen and Martin are what gives this team a shot . Jansen has 26 saves , almost half of the Sox wins. Martin has been excellent in his role. Still 47 games left to play. Last year, the saves leader for the full season had just 8 saves. You didn't even know who was going to close half the time.

 

Agreed. Just like I can't fault Cora for making in-game moves when he knows his players' status day-to-day -- while I'm just a detached observer -- then I guess I should give Bloom the same benefit of the doubt for the new players he acquires and for the ones he doesn't.

 

I will give Bloom credit for picking up a few complementary players who have exceeded their past baseball card feats... even if they weren't major impact guys, the sum of the whole is the goal.

 

But when ex-Sox-turned-media members like Merloni wonder the same as fans how a CBO goes into a season without a bullpen or 1st baseman (like '22) or shortstop or starting rotation ('23, preseason or deadline), it confirms other concerns. Leaving glaring holes unfilled is just glaring in Boston -- and there's just no disputing it -- whether it's the fault of ownership or the front office...

[mvp 78]

But when ex-Sox-turned-media members like Merloni wonder the same as fans how a CBO goes into a season without a bullpen or 1st baseman (like '22) or shortstop or starting rotation ('23, preseason or deadline), it confirms other concerns. Leaving glaring holes unfilled is just glaring in Boston -- and there's just no disputing it -- whether it's the fault of ownership or the front office...

 

Many of us had those concerns and more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Many of us had those concerns and more.

 

Sometimes I wish I could crawl right into the can.

 

note: preceding quote directly lifted from the script on the beer I'm drinking right now. Who can name it? Hint: New Englanders -- it's from Vermont

[Old Red]

Chang outrighted to Worcester today. Hopefully he’s not needed in Boston again this year, but the way things have gone this year i wouldn’t count it out.

[mvp 78]

Sometimes I wish I could crawl right into the can.

 

note: preceding quote directly lifted from the script on the beer I'm drinking right now. Who can name it? Hint: New Englanders -- it's from Vermont

 

Long Trail? Alchemist?

[Bellhorn04]

Pablo Reyes with the .330 BA and .800 OPS.

 

SSS, but if he keeps this up we might have to put him in the W column for Bloom.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pablo Reyes with the .330 BA and .800 OPS.

 

SSS, but if he keeps this up we might have to put him in the W column for Bloom.

 

SSS: Small Short Stop? For what he's done for just one week, Pablo now gets first name reverence with Sox fans.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Long Trail? Alchemist?

 

We have a winner! B.... but what is the name of this beer... that supposedly sold out daily (intentionally underproduced -- hey, it worked)

[Bellhorn04]

SSS: Small Short Stop? For what he's done for just one week, Pablo now gets first name reverence with Sox fans.

 

It's been Chaim Bloom's 2023 Utility Infielder Extravaganza. Never a dull moment.

[moonslav59]

As fair as I am overall I’ll give it a plus. To add to it the SS situation for a long time, and not adding a starting pitcher were a minus.

 

Two very big minuses.

 

Many of the scrubs chosen to fill out the bottom of the pen have been awful, too, but I don't weigh them as heavily as FT'ers and higher leverage pitchers.

 

When you also consider, he had some big names (not necessarily big 2022 numbers) to replace, I think he did better than 2021's additions, yet the W-L records don't show it.

[moonslav59]

During 2022, I did chuckled at what the Rangers did. Signed Seager to 10 year, $325M deal and Semien to a 7 year, $175M deal. The team did not look much better to me. At least they were not on my radar. But the owner tried.

 

Ranger then followed those signings with adding a slew of quality starting pitchers.

 

It was a two year plan now looking back.

 

I hope we are at year one of two year 'go for it' plan.

 

Our core group is emerging position wise.

 

It's time to do whatever to add starting pitchers. Trade some farmhands if you have to. Sign some free agents.

 

We have in the pen, possibly, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Winckowski, Pivetta, Martin, Janssen, Crawford, Bernadino, etc. Couple of them might start.

 

If we don't go for it in 2024, I'll be very disappointed.

 

Me, too. I'd be like, you better go super large and long in '25, if we go cheap, next year.

 

TEX is doing pretty good, so to many, that is all that counts, but some of those big spending moves have not worked as expected:

 

Semien:

.767 OPS w TEX

.873 w TOR

 

Seager

.870 w TEX

.870 w LAD, but .926 from '20-'21 (223 games out of a possible 280 is kinda better than expected.)

 

de Grom

30 IP in 2023

 

Nate:

124 IP and on the IL but was doing great

 

Perez:

Started out doing well, but is at 4.94 in '23

[Hugh2]

During 2022, I did chuckled at what the Rangers did. Signed Seager to 10 year, $325M deal and Semien to a 7 year, $175M deal. The team did not look much better to me. At least they were not on my radar. But the owner tried.

 

Ranger then followed those signings with adding a slew of quality starting pitchers.

 

It was a two year plan now looking back.

 

I hope we are at year one of two year 'go for it' plan.

 

Our core group is emerging position wise.

 

It's time to do whatever to add starting pitchers. Trade some farmhands if you have to. Sign some free agents.

 

We have in the pen, possibly, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Winckowski, Pivetta, Martin, Janssen, Crawford, Bernadino, etc. Couple of them might start.

 

If we don't go for it in 2024, I'll be very disappointed.

 

I've been predicting that we go for it in 2024 for a while. So confident about it I even changed my signature to stop gloating about my prediction of extending Devers this offseason.

[harmony]

Originally Posted by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

 

New Prediction. The Sox will make a major starting pitching acquisition in the 2023/24 offseason

Do the Red Sox have a controllable bat to spare?

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

[moonslav59]

I've been predicting that we go for it in 2024 for a while. So confident about it I even changed my signature to stop gloating about my prediction of extending Devers this offseason.

 

Will you go back to your laurels, if we go cheap, this winter?

[moonslav59]

Do the Red Sox have a controllable bat to spare?

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

 

Can we have your pitching scouts and developers while keeping our everyday player guys, too?

[notin]

Do the Red Sox have a controllable bat to spare?

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

 

BTV accepts Duran for Miller and Woo…

[Duran Is The Man]

Do the Red Sox have a controllable bat to spare?

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

 

i've been watching Emerson Hancock of the Arkansas Travelers (Mariners AA club) all year. glad to see he got called up the other day. i think he's going to do well for them.

[Randy Red Sox]

what is this post for? Is it to give Bloom another pass for 2024?

Two very big minuses.

 

Many of the scrubs chosen to fill out the bottom of the pen have been awful, too, but I don't weigh them as heavily as FT'ers and higher leverage pitchers.

 

When you also consider, he had some big names (not necessarily big 2022 numbers) to replace, I think he did better than 2021's additions, yet the W-L records don't show it.

[moonslav59]

what is this post for? Is it to give Bloom another pass for 2024?

 

I said that last winter would be Bloom's defining moment and even used the word "legacy" for "good or bad." I have not backed down from that position. (I have not given up on this year, despite coming close a couple times.)

 

I have said I think JH is not looking at last winter as the moment Bloom was expected to get us very near to glory, and that Bloom will be back, no matter how this ends, but that does not mean I let him off the hook.

 

If we miss the playoffs and finish in last and he stays, I will continue hoping we get better, that Bloom's farm additions start making a difference and that his next moves continue to improve. I won't say he sucks. I won't say he's great, because he is neither.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts Duran for Miller and Woo…

 

Can we still get Berrios?

 

LOL

[moonslav59]

A look at some Sox pitchers in the long relief role, this year:

 

Crawford (8 games from 4/13 to 5/31)

1.66 ERA/.471 OPS Against

 

Winckowski (42 games from 3/30 to 8/10)

2.86 ERA/.736 OPS Against

 

Pivetta (17 games from 5/21 to 7/25)

1.98 ERA/.437 OPSA (1.51/.391 his last 15 gms in relief.)

 

Murphy (11 games in 2023)

2.94 ERA/.683 OPSA before tonight

 

Walter (6 games in 2023)

3.07/.739 OPSA

 

While Jansen and Martin get a much deserved praise, these guys have pitched a lot of innings that kept us in many winning games.

 

[moonslav59]

A leader change and shake-up of Sox OPS leaders:

 

.845 Duran

.843 Devers

.841 Casas

.832 Yoshida

.831 Duvall

.826 Turner

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox have won 4 of 5 and might need to go 4-1 in the next 5 to get back in the race.

CLE scored 3 in the 9th to tie TBR, but TBR won 9-8.

Yanks won 9-4 over MIA.

HOU won 11-3 over LAA.

TEX squeaked by SFG 2-1.

SEA beat up in BAL 9-2 and seem for real.

 

Luckily, TOR lost 6-2 to CHC, so we only gained on BAL & TOR.

 

WC Standings

 

TBR +5.0

HOU +2.5

TOR ---

 

SEA -0.5

BOS -3.0

NYY -4.0

LAA -6.5

 

 

[harmony]

BTV accepts Duran for Miller and Woo…

BTV has offered volatile valuations for nearly 27-year-old Jarren Duran, who had posted a negative 0.4 fWAR in each of his two previous seasons. The Mariners would probably prefer to take their chances with outfielders Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone and Taylor Trammell (to complement Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic going forward).

[notin]

BTV has offered volatile valuations for nearly 27-year-old Jarren Duran, who had posted a negative 0.4 fWAR in each of his two previous seasons. The Mariners would probably prefer to take their chances with outfielders Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone and Taylor Trammell (to complement Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic going forward).

 

 

Using fWAR, Jarren Duran is outperforming Julio Rodriguez this year…

[harmony]

Jarren Duran may be this year’s biggest surprise but his 2.6 fWAR trails the 3.9 fWAR posted by Julio Rodriguez.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Using fWAR, Jarren Duran is outperforming Julio Rodriguez this year…

 

Whoa -- who would've thunk it. And using the lip-reading test on telecasts, Duran may also be outhumbling junk-talking Julio...

[Bellhorn04]

The Mariners are becoming a major annoyance.

[harmony]

Jarren Duran may be this year’s biggest surprise but his 2.6 fWAR trails the 3.9 fWAR posted by Julio Rodriguez.

FanGraphs projects rest-of-season wRC+ of 99 and WAR of 0.5 for Jarren Duran, who in 25 games since the All Star break has posted a .241/.308/.422/.729 line.

 

In August Duran has posted a .177/.222/.412/.634 line in 10 games.

Edited August 12, 2023 by harmony

[harmony]

The Mariners are becoming a major annoyance.

It's a long season and the better teams often rise toward the top.

 

Or not.