Corey Kluber signs with Red Sox

[jacksonianmarch]

Staying in the race while 3 games out was the right move.

 

Remember the 2019 Sox were 3 games out of the wild card when they acquired Andrew Cashner on July 13th. The deadline that year came and went with no further moves from Dombrowski. He didn’t but any more. He didn’t sell anyone off. How come no one ever questions that (in)decision?

 

How was that the right move?

You had a generational talent hitting Fa

You knew you weren’t going for it

Your team was sliding hard going into the deadline

Your team couldn’t beat their own division

 

It was clearly time to sell or make enormous additions and they did neither. They strongly f***ed up the deadline and instead of getting a top prospect, they’re getting 4th rounders

[moonslav59]

How was that the right move?

You had a generational talent hitting Fa

You knew you weren’t going for it

Your team was sliding hard going into the deadline

Your team couldn’t beat their own division

 

It was clearly time to sell or make enormous additions and they did neither. They strongly f***ed up the deadline and instead of getting a top prospect, they’re getting 4th rounders

 

We could have gotten a top prospect for Bogey- maybe 2.

A good prospect for Nate.

A decent prospect for Wacha.

A decent one for Hill.

Another one for Strahm.

A couple okay ones for Vaz- oh, we did that.

An okay one for JD, if we paid much of his contract.

 

Look what we got for Diekman!

 

We could have paid big chunks of all these deals to get better returns, if needed.

[jacksonianmarch]

We could have gotten a top prospect for Bogey- maybe 2.

A good prospect for Nate.

A decent prospect for Wacha.

A decent one for Hill.

Another one for Strahm.

A couple okay ones for Vaz- oh, we did that.

An okay one for JD, if we paid much of his contract.

 

Look what we got for Diekman!

 

We could have paid big chunks of all these deals to get better returns, if needed.

 

I said it from the beginning last year. I knew your team was trash and said my biggest fear was Bloom being able to trade off assets as it would hasten your retooling. I was tickled pink when he didn’t.

[Bellhorn04]

I said it from the beginning last year. I knew your team was trash and said my biggest fear was Bloom being able to trade off assets as it would hasten your retooling. I was tickled pink when he didn’t.

 

It's just plain stupid saying you knew the team was trash. It was largely the same team that knocked out the Yanks and Rays the previous year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's just plain stupid saying you knew the team was trash. It was largely the same team that knocked out the Yanks and Rays the previous year.

 

And the greatest team in the history of last year's first half was below .500 in the second half.

[Bellhorn04]

Crybaby fans who stop coming to games or paying for NESN or just threatening to would lead to losing money. YES, I get it, and that was likely a big reason they did not do even a mini fire sale (beyond trading Vaz.)

 

Losing fan interest affects the bottom line.

 

Do you think JH felt the team would lose money, if they had a fire sale or mini fire sale? I do, at least temporarily, and to me, the main reason for that would be pissed off fans.

 

Yes, that's the whole argument. JH would have been concerned about losing money. And losing money can ultimately curb spending and therefore hurt the product on the field.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, that's the whole argument. JH would have been concerned about losing money. And losing money can ultimately curb spending and therefore hurt the product on the field.

 

The curb is where I'm most perturbed... especially being thrown there by a franchise I've been loyal to my entire old life.

 

I'll never accept the mantra that some fans buy into that their team can't invest in good players yet because the team isn't good enough yet.

 

The whole point of one-year contracts is to fill in the roster just to get through another year. I'd rather Bloom just promote an entire rotation of his best Triple A and Double A pitchers -- (except Thad Ward, who just made MLB.com's list as the top prospect to watch for Washington in '23).

[moonslav59]

I said it from the beginning last year. I knew your team was trash and said my biggest fear was Bloom being able to trade off assets as it would hasten your retooling. I was tickled pink when he didn’t.

 

You also said the same before 2021.

[moonslav59]

Yes, that's the whole argument. JH would have been concerned about losing money. And losing money can ultimately curb spending and therefore hurt the product on the field.

 

I fully understand this, and my point was that the concern about losing money, and watching attendance and viewership drop, not just for the Sox, but all of MLB is directly related to keeping fans happy and interested, or at the very least, Hopeful.

 

Doing things to upset fans or cause them to lose hope, or in my more colorful words- make them cry- helped cause upper management to decide not to have, even a mini fire sale larger than dealing Vaz away. IMO

 

I'm not sure it worked to heighten fan hopes, and it seemed like many fans were pissed at trading Vaz and the way they handled that trade, but on paper, the guys we acquired vs giving up did better in 2022 and look more hopeful going forward than Groome.

 

My point now is that that choice back-fired on them, and fans got pissed, anyway- just a few months later. As s***** as the team did after the deadline, I'm not sure they made any more money than had they traded away just JD, but that is in hindsight.

 

I get why they did what they did, but I still disagree.

 

I get why they gave up on Ben's plan, when they did. At that time, I hoped for at least one more year at trying a plan for sustainable and consistent winning, but 3 last place finishes in 4 years had the fans on edge, and management felt they needed to "win now" or risk losing the golden goose for good.

 

They may make the same choice, again, but I think they learned a lesson from the DD era. I think we are seeing a bit more patience, this time, with the long term plan, but clearly the idea to try and keep winning, now, is part of the difficult balancing act, It's not an easy choice to make. Some teams who get to that point did so by tanking for several years (Hou & TBR come to mind), while some teams keep the focus on the farm while spending much more than we do, especially over the last 3 years (NYY, LAD.)

 

Teams like the Astros and Braves seem to be the model JH is trying to follow, and if you look at the list of great or key players the Astros have lost over the last 4-5 years, it's shocking, but they had the farm to keep replenishing the big club, made key extensions and signings, most not real long along the way. The only B TV contract severely underwater for the Astros was Altuve, and he is still helping the team on the field. I think BTV, now has him as a plus. It's no fluke the Astros has 6 losing seasons in a row, including 3 in a row with over 105 losses.

 

The Braves had 4 losing seasons in a row around the same time as the Astros, including 3 in a row over with 90 loses.

 

It's a difficult choice to choose the plan to have rebuilding the farm a top priority while still trying to compete on the field, every year. Add to that, the fact that the farm of 5-10 years ago added just Devers, and the farm of 1-5 years ago added just Houck. Then, you have an owner and management group that insists on putting a competitive team on the field while greatly slashing the budget in 2020, not allowing any major prospect trades since the deadline of 2018, and then slowly adding winter spending money over the next 3 winters. All this, while your highest paid player doesn't play.

 

Am I really that crazy to think maybe fan expectations were too high and maybe a bit unreasonable?

 

It doesn't seem like many even give a cursory acknowledgment to the near impossible situation we were in starting in the summer of 2019. The writing was on the wall before 2019, but most felt the window would and should have lasted into 2019 and maybe a year or two beyond.

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't seem like many even give a cursory acknowledgment to the near impossible situation we were in starting in the summer of 2019. The writing was on the wall before 2019, but most felt the window would and should have lasted into 2019 and maybe a year or two beyond.

 

I don't think the situation in 2019 was quite that bad. And 2021 arguably proves that point.

 

And 2022 could have been much better if better moves were made.

 

Given the parameters handed him, Bloom has had a small margin for error, no question about that.

[Nick]

You also said the same before 2021.

 

I enjoy his contribution to this board but kicking a dog while down gets pretty old. Then he pulls the disappearance act when his team is going South.

 

I am incensed that we went over the cap by less than $5M. What the hell?

 

It's time to move on to 2023.

 

Nothing short of World Championship is good enough for the Yankees. Their luxury tax payroll is up to $289M. They are now committed $143M to only 5 players for at least another 4 years.

 

Sox can get into the playoffs. We'd welcome a series with the Yankees. It won't be a cakewalk. I'd start worrying about the health of HIS team.

[Bellhorn04]

Jax is a Pollyanna about his own team. Most Yankee fans are apoplectic over the fact they have one title and one WS appearance in the last 19 years.

[moonslav59]

I don't think the situation in 2019 was quite that bad. And 2021 arguably proves that point.

 

And 2022 could have been much better if better moves were made.

 

Given the parameters handed him, Bloom has had a small margin for error, no question about that.

 

The thing I find most interesting is that one could look at the winter signings before 2021 as worse or equal to those before 2022:

 

2021:

10 Richards

(8 Ottavino via trade)

7 Kike

5 Perez

3 Renfroe

3 Marwin

2 Andriese

1.5 Sawamura

 

2022

22 Story

(12 JBJ via trade)

7 Wacha

6 Paxton

5 Hill

4 Diekman

3 Strahm

2 Robles

[moonslav59]

I enjoy his contribution to this board but kicking a dog while down gets pretty old. Then he pulls the disappearance act when his team is going South.

 

I am incensed that we went over the cap by less than $5M. What the hell?

 

It's time to move on to 2023.

 

Nothing short of World Championship is good enough for the Yankees. Their luxury tax payroll is up to $289M. They are now committed $143M to only 5 players for at least another 4 years.

 

Sox can get into the playoffs. We'd welcome a series with the Yankees. It won't be a cakewalk. I'd start worrying about the health of HIS team.

 

The Yanks still seem reluctant to go the extra mile, although the winter is still not over.

 

They need a LF'er can some were out there.

 

While it's commendable they have improved their team without parting with very top prospects, when they fall short, we'll hear more about that.

[notin]

You also said the same before 2021.

 

And 2018…

[notin]

I said it from the beginning last year. I knew your team was trash and said my biggest fear was Bloom being able to trade off assets as it would hasten your retooling. I was tickled pink when he didn’t.

 

You say that at the beginning of every year…

[moonslav59]

You say that at the beginning of every year…

 

...and he raves about the solid Yankee staff and roster, until they start sucking, every year.

[notin]

...and he raves about the solid Yankee staff and roster, until they start sucking, every year.

 

And then it’s Boone’s fault…

[moonslav59]

And then it’s Boone’s fault…

 

Worse, he blames Cashman for poor roster construction just weeks from saying their roster is the best.

[jacksonianmarch]

Worse, he blames Cashman for poor roster construction just weeks from saying their roster is the best.

 

How are the Red Sox looking?

[moonslav59]

How are the Red Sox looking?

 

To me, better than last year, but better than last place leaves a lot of gray area.

 

People focus on losing Bogey and JD and then Nate, Wacha and Hill.

 

Bogey & JD's production, in terms of runs was down.

 

Nate, Wacha and Hill started enough games for 2, so we essentially lost 2 not 3 SP'ers.

 

I like Bello, Whit and Kluber replacing those 60+ starts.

 

We also are losing some really bad pitching and hitting, which total meaningful PA and IP totals.

 

I like Yoshida and Turner.

I'm counting on better from Story, Kike and Devers.

I might end up being disappointed with Casas, but he has a low bar to beat from 2022 at 1B.

I like our catching tandem better than Vaz & Plawecki.

Our pen lost so many games for us, last year. They should actually win some for us in '23.

 

SS and a couple slots in the rotation are the big question marks, but the other slots all look like plusses or equals, to me.

 

I'm sure you'll tell me where I'm wrong. Bring it on! With your record of predicting Sox outcomes, the more bad ones, the better.

[jacksonianmarch]

To me, better than last year, but better than last place leaves a lot of gray area.

 

People focus on losing Bogey and JD and then Nate, Wacha and Hill.

 

Bogey & JD's production, in terms of runs was down.

 

Nate, Wacha and Hill started enough games for 2, so we essentially lost 2 not 3 SP'ers.

 

I like Bello, Whit and Kluber replacing those 60+ starts.

 

We also are losing some really bad pitching and hitting, which total meaningful PA and IP totals.

 

I like Yoshida and Turner.

I'm counting on better from Story, Kike and Devers.

I might end up being disappointed with Casas, but he has a low bar to beat from 2022 at 1B.

I like our catching tandem better than Vaz & Plawecki.

Our pen lost so many games for us, last year. They should actually win some for us in '23.

 

SS and a couple slots in the rotation are the big question marks, but the other slots all look like plusses or equals, to me.

 

I'm sure you'll tell me where I'm wrong. Bring it on! With your record of predicting Sox outcomes, the more bad ones, the better.

 

You’re f***ing delusional.

[moonslav59]

You’re f***ing delusional.

 

Its not hard to improve on horrible.

 

Answer each of these Qs:

 

Is Casas/Turner better than Dalbec/Cordero?

A healthy Story > the 2022 Story?

Same with Kike?

Devers better in 2023 is likely?

Yoshida > Dugo/Pham/Duran in LF?

Dugo/Ref > JBJ/Ref/Duran in RF?

Turner = the 2022 JD?

Catchers = 2022 catchers?

 

Pen way better than 2022, even without Whitlock?

 

43 more starts from Whit & Bello = 43 starts from Nate & Wacha?

26 starts from Kluber = 26 from Hill?

 

Now, I know all of this will not come true all at once, but one by one, I think the odds are, I'm right on almost all of these.

 

We got way worse at SS, and maybe worse at C and SP2 and SP3. The rest looks even or better and our ML ready depth in the minors is light years better, on paper.

 

Prepare to be wrong, again.

 

Tell me, specifically, which slots I got wrong, and why.

[moonslav59]

You’re f***ing delusional.

 

ZIPs projects 82-80- just 3 GB the Yanks in 2023.

 

I'm not thinking 3 games behind the Yanks, but how delusional are they?

[moonslav59]

Steamers Early OPS Projections:

 

.855 Devers +

.801 Casas +

.768 Dugo+

.736 Story = but way more PAs

.735 Arroyo

.727 Dalbec +

.708 Kike + and way more PAs

They don't have Yoshiad or Turner projections, yet

 

FWAR

3.1 Sale > 1.8 Hill '22

1.9 Whit > 1.5 Whil '22

1.5 Bello > 1.3 Bello '22

1.4 Pivetta = 1.5 Piv '22

1.3 Paxton

?? Kluber ??? 1.0 Nate '22

0.8 Houck = 0.7 '22

0.7 Martin> 0.5 Brasier '22

0.5 Schreiber

0.3 Jansen= Strahm 0.3 '22

0.3 Crawford, Brasier & Taylor = 0.3 Craw/0.3 Davis/0.1 Valdez

0.2 Joely ???

0.1 Barnes, Mata, Kelly, Walter, Seabold ???

 

.660 McGuire (321 PAs) & .738 Wong (209 PAs) = Vaz/Plaw

 

fWAR '22>'23 projected

6.1 Bogey/0.2 Arroyo>>> 1.2 Arroyo

4.9 Devers >4.4 Devers

2.4 Story/-0.3 Downs

1.7 Vaz/1.3 McGuire/0.1 Wong/-0.4 Plaw

1.3 Ref 1.0/-0.2 Pham/-0.3 JBJ/-0.4 Duran ??? Yoshida

1.2 Verdugo

1.0 JD ??? Turner

0.5 Kike

0.2 Casas/-0.1 Dalbec/-0.1 Hosmer/-0.2 Cordero

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by moonslav59

[Tedballgame]

How are the Red Sox looking?

 

Better than being owned by the Astros. Skankees haven’t won anything since 2009. Why don’t you slither back under your rock.

[jacksonianmarch]

Better than being owned by the Astros. Skankees haven’t won anything since 2009. Why don’t you slither back under your rock.

 

Lol. Red Sox won less games vs the AL east last year than the yanks have titles. They lost their leader plus their best pitcher and are rapidly heading into a rebuild. They’re poised to sell of their final generational talent before 2023 is through. So quit living in the past and embrace the s*** sandwich your team is today.

[moonslav59]

Lol. Red Sox won less games vs the AL east last year than the yanks have titles. They lost their leader plus their best pitcher and are rapidly heading into a rebuild. They’re poised to sell of their final generational talent before 2023 is through. So quit living in the past and embrace the s*** sandwich your team is today.

 

Saying we lost our best pitcher is like saying you lost your best RP'er in Chapman.

[Hugh2]

Oh. A Yankees fan. Telling another baseball fan to not “live in the past”

 

Oh the irony.

[mvp 78]

@RedSox

To make room for Kluber on the 40-man roster, Boston designated RHP Connor Seabold for assignment.