Devers next deal

[mvp 78]

Unfortunately I find it quite credible. We know that this team sets values and doesn't stray far from them.

 

Yup.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately I find it quite credible. We know that this team sets values and doesn't stray far from them.

 

Especially for our own players, true.

 

They won't suddenly go from thinking Devers was worth $250M/10, yesterday to $320M/11, today.

 

They may not care about the market surging on high end player contracts. Maybe they adjust their value methods slightly upwards but not by enough.

 

To me, it may come down to them just realizing they have to bite the bullet on this one and overpay by a lot.

 

They did go against their own policy when they went extreme on the Price signing. I know they broke their own rules on that one. Maybe, they realize it is time to do it, again. This time, on their own player.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The least likely thing to happen this offseason is that Raffy is extended. They have the money to do so, they don't have the willingness.

 

The most likely option is that they go into the season with him as the 3B and still say they are committed to extending him during the year but we hear all throughout the year that Devers "hasn't heard anything."

 

History does often repeat itself, but every now and again, there are hiccups.

 

[oldtimer]

Especially for our own players, true.

 

They won't suddenly go from thinking Devers was worth $250M/10, yesterday to $320M/11, today.

 

They may not care about the market surging on high end player contracts. Maybe they adjust their value methods slightly upwards but not by enough.

 

To me, it may come down to them just realizing they have to bite the bullet on this one and overpay by a lot.

 

They did go against their own policy when they went extreme on the Price signing. I know they broke their own rules on that one. Maybe, they realize it is time to do it, again. This time, on their own player.

 

 

 

 

Do you establish what a player is worth by what some team is willing to pay him or based on what he is likely to deliver to the team in some measure of value over time? I don't believe Devers is worth $400 million for 14 years. It could just be that teams are committing suicide with these expensive and high risk long term contracts. If the Sox aren't willing to go in the direction of high states long term contracts, then they need to be honest and trade Devers at the beginning of the season.

 

Will it still be possible in todays market to extend young high potential players to long term contracts. If so, maybe that is the way to go. Get some star quality players and fill in with competent major leaguers. If that is what Bloom is thinking, then it's worth a try.

[moonslav59]

Do you establish what a player is worth by what some team is willing to pay him or based on what he is likely to deliver to the team in some measure of value over time? I don't believe Devers is worth $400 million for 14 years. It could just be that teams are committing suicide with these expensive and high risk long term contracts. If the Sox aren't willing to go in the direction of high states long term contracts, then they need to be honest and trade Devers at the beginning of the season.

 

Will it still be possible in todays market to extend young high potential players to long term contracts. If so, maybe that is the way to go. Get some star quality players and fill in with competent major leaguers. If that is what Bloom is thinking, then it's worth a try.

 

A team should establish a player's value on projected production value plus his affect on bringing money to the team in the form of increased attendance, TV viewership and memorabilia purchases. Set the value and maybe overpay by a little, if you want, but never by a gross amount.

 

Maybe, they make mistakes in the setting of value- maybe they nailed Bogey's value to a tee.

 

I do agree on picking a strategy and maximizing the value of players, even if it means trading them.

 

[mvp 78]

Will it still be possible in todays market to extend young high potential players to long term contracts. If so, maybe that is the way to go. Get some star quality players and fill in with competent major leaguers. If that is what Bloom is thinking, then it's worth a try.

 

That's the Atlanta Braves model.

 

Acuna 8/100

Albies 7/35

Riley 10/212

Strider 6/75

Olson 8/168

Harris 8/72

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Benintendi, a guy in his 20s from the midwest, just got the biggest contract in the history of the White Sox. Do you think he's bitter that his old outfield dance partner and batting order bud (when they hit #1-2 in Boston) is still making around five times more than him?

[moonslav59]

The only real young guys the Sox might have thought about locking up under Bloom are probably:

 

Whitlock (Did sign for $18.75M x 4)

Houck

Dalbec (after 2020 or 2021)

Duran (can't think of a time that looked right.)

 

Of course, players like Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni and maybe ERod, Vaz and a few others early on probably would have been best locked up (or not) under the DD years. We had a chance with Bogey, it seems, and Devers, even now.

 

It's hard for GM to gauge the market spikes, and certainly some of the numbers thrown around on Bogey a few months ago, seem like bargains, now, but it's hard to know exactly what went down and what the offers actually were.

 

If the Sox offered $160M/6 or $180M/7 tops, but BorA$$ would not budge from $200M/8, it looks, now, like $200M/8 was a steal, and maybe it was or would have been, but for all we know, even if Bloom & Co. predicted the rising market for top end FAs, they still might not have agreed to $200M/8 and maybe wouldn't, right now, if they could.

 

In that case, blame a faulty evaluation system, assuming Bogey does not go on to earn that, but again by what metric do we end up saying he was worth $200M/8, $160M/6 or $280M/11?

 

If they would have paid $200M/8 and did not, thinking nobody would pay that, and Bogey would come back and settle for $190M/8 or $170M/7, then it was a clear mistake, and a much different type than above's example.

 

Maybe, when they thought he was worth $160M/6, BorA$$ wanted $180M/7, and if we then offered $175M/7 a few months later, BorA$$ then wanted $190M/7. Maybe the Sox final offer was $190M/8, but BorA$$ demanded $220/8. At no point did the Sox feel they would meet Bogey's demands and their "set value" never matched with BorA$$. An agent's demand does not always match with a player's true value and with BorA$$ is usually grossly more than the expected final contract ends up being. In this case, I think Bogey got more than even BorA$$ thought he'd get 12, 6 or even 1 month ago.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard for GM to gauge the market spikes, and certainly some of the numbers thrown around on Bogey a few months ago, seem like bargains, now, but it's hard to know exactly what went down and what the offers actually were.

 

The only reported offer to Bogey prior to reaching free agency was the $30 million bump. It's been reported extensively and never refuted, so I'm assuming it's accurate.

[moonslav59]

The only reported offer to Bogey prior to reaching free agency was the $30 million bump. It's been reported extensively and never refuted, so I'm assuming it's accurate.

 

Maybe no further "official offers" were made afterwards, if one side's demand or offer was so far off, the other felt no need to respond. That may have been the case with Bogey.

[jad]

Maybe no further "official offers" were made afterwards, if one side's demand or offer was so far off, the other felt no need to respond. That may have been the case with Bogey.

 

I notice that your defenses of Bloom always involve a string of subjunctives.

[moonslav59]

I notice that your defenses of Bloom always involve a string of subjunctives.

 

I notice your intense negativity and morbid views on a team you apparently are a fan of.

[vjcsmoke]

Whatever Raffy ends up getting you know the Red Sox will not end up being the one paying it.

 

Unfortunately I fear this will be the case.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe no further "official offers" were made afterwards, if one side's demand or offer was so far off, the other felt no need to respond. That may have been the case with Bogey.

 

It was Lester Redux, plain and simple.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately I fear this will be the case.

 

It sure looks that way, but maybe this time will be different.

 

I'm trying to stay hopeful, but there is not much to base it on, in terms of keeping Devers around.

 

We better not lose him for a comp pick and hopes of some one year window belief. At least we got something for Betts, Vaz and Beni- maybe not enough, but we tried. 4th round comp picks are not "trying."

[Bellhorn04]

It sure looks that way, but maybe this time will be different.

 

I'm trying to stay hopeful, but there is not much to base it on, in terms of keeping Devers around.

 

We better not lose him for a comp pick and hopes of some one year window belief. At least we got something for Betts, Vaz and Beni- maybe not enough, but we tried. 4th round comp picks are not "trying."

 

Maybe you'll get your wishes this time around and they'll have no shot at a playoff spot so trading Devers at the deadline will be a no-brainer.

[Hugh2]

IDK, Bloom seems to have a better track record at drafting than he does trading. I'd rather go for it, try to work out and extension with Devers along the way. But I want him starting 3B in 2023 no matter what.

[moonslav59]

It was Lester Redux, plain and simple.

 

Certainly the most likely scenario. The Sox just never felt Bogey was anywhere near what BorA$$ wanted. Maybe part of their decision was based on thinking he'd never get close to what was demanded, and if that's the case, they sure got that wrong.

 

If their setting value system was so far off, at least on Bogey, there is a chance they are proven right, but it seems like all the big ticket players are being grossly overpaid, so a choice needs to be made, or already has been made, to either bite the bullet or go with more second tier FAs over frontline ones. Maybe not quite the extreme quantity over quality I've been calling it but never top quality, if it is expensive.

 

To win under that system, you gotta have an incredibly strong farm system- top to bottom. Scouts, developers and people able to spot the right guys to trade for. The RHerns, Binelases and Winckowskis aren't getting the job done.

 

It took the Astros many years to get to where they got, and tanking for a few made it go more quickly than it will probably take the Sox, but it does look like that part of the planterm. has been the highest priority since day one of Bloom's term. It's hard to know, if we'll ever come close to the talent the Astros system churned out and is still churning out, but it does look like we are trying to get there, and often at the expense of the here and now ML team. We've traded no top prospects under bloom and even during DD's last season. That's 4 years.

 

I'm hopeful we'll start seeing results from the farm, this year, and most of Bloom's farm additions are slated for arrival in 2024 or beyond, but most fans don't really want to hear about 2025 and beyond hopes and dreams. They don't even want to wait until 2024. I don't either. I thought this could be the winter- Bogey or no Bogey, where we flip from quantity to quality, but for some reason, the Sox top brass has a different view or plan.

 

They won't be honest about their plan, and that makes it worse. For some reason, they think lying and deceiving the fanbase will make things better. They couldn't be more wrong. I'm not sure they know how or have the will to change their stripes.

[moonslav59]

IDK, Bloom seems to have a better track record at drafting than he does trading. I'd rather go for it, try to work out and extension with Devers along the way. But I want him starting 3B in 2023 no matter what.

 

Getting a comp pick for Devers plus one year from him vs whatever we get in trade?

 

If I liked our chances in 2023, I might agree, and I guess if we sign Andrus and Kluber and trade for a solid SP and maybe Dugo for a real RF'er, I'd be more inclined to agree. Maybe if we just do 2 or 3 of the 4 things I listed, I might have more optimism, but it seems like we will be wasting a chance at getting better, long term on false hopes of a miracle in '23.

[mvp 78]

I notice your intense negativity and morbid views on a team you apparently are a fan of.

 

Gee, I wonder why someone would be negative about this team right now...

[mvp 78]

It was Lester Redux, plain and simple.

 

Honestly, Lester wasn't as bad as Mookie or Xander.

[mvp 78]

IDK, Bloom seems to have a better track record at drafting than he does trading. I'd rather go for it, try to work out and extension with Devers along the way. But I want him starting 3B in 2023 no matter what.

 

He started off strong with the Pivetta deal, but really sucked balls after that.

[cukes]

Getting a comp pick for Devers plus one year from him vs whatever we get in trade?

 

If I liked our chances in 2023, I might agree, and I guess if we sign Andrus and Kluber and trade for a solid SP and maybe Dugo for a real RF'er, I'd be more inclined to agree. Maybe if we just do 2 or 3 of the 4 things I listed, I might have more optimism, but it seems like we will be wasting a chance at getting better, long term on false hopes of a miracle in '23. [/b

 

Miracles are in heaven, stupidity is in Boston, only way is fans have to revolt and don't buy those expensive tickets, plenty of sports bars around Boston

[Bellhorn04]

Honestly, Lester wasn't as bad as Mookie or Xander.

 

No, but the modus operandi with Bogey was identical to Lester - the pre-season insult, and the late effort that falls short.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fans love to watch Raffy knock the cover off the ball, and the Red Sox will be better if he does it for them and not someone else in 2023.

 

However, if there's only about a 1% chance he re-signs in Boston, then there will also be a lot of rational fans -- already tired of the Mookie and Bogey debacles -- ready to move on, and root for players they think will be around a lot longer.

[mvp 78]

Miracles are in heaven, stupidity is in Boston, only way is fans have to revolt and don't buy those expensive tickets, plenty of sports bars around Boston

 

Even participating by watching at a bar helps out ownership IMO. The only way to really stick it to them is complete apathy.

[mvp 78]

Fans love to watch Raffy knock the cover off the ball, and the Red Sox will be better if he does it for them and not someone else in 2023.

 

However, if there's only about a 1% chance he re-signs in Boston, then there will also be a lot of rational fans -- already tired of the Mookie and Bogey debacles -- ready to move on, and root for players they think will be around a lot longer.

 

At this point, why even be invested in Casas if he's just going to be somewhere else in 2028?

[notin]

At this point, why even be invested in Casas if he's just going to be somewhere else in 2028?

 

And Mayer will be gone by 2030..

[mvp 78]

And Mayer will be gone by 2030..

 

Will Bleis even be a Red Sox by the time the Sun consumes the Earth?

[moonslav59]

Gee, I wonder why someone would be negative about this team right now...

 

To the extreme of tearing down players with innuendos and whatever you want to call that?

 

I didn't mean those statements to say nobody should feel negative or that there is nothing to feel negative about. I'm feeling negative, too, much of the time I'm thinking of our winter moves and non moves, but to me, it's going too extreme. That's just me.

 

People said I went to extreme giving up on the 2022 team before nearly everyone else, so I'm not trying to come across as holier than thou, but the winter moves are not over, yet. It sucked losing Bogey, but it's not like it was totally unexpected. The mood was rather cheery after the Yoshida signing, even though most of us still felt keeping Bogey was a longshot, but the minute he signed with the Padres, the loss sunk in deeply and negativity went into severe mode.

 

It's understandable, but I didn 't expect personal attacks on our current players and the GM for acquiring them.