Devers next deal

[moonslav59]

He does have age working in his favor. But next off-season he will only be 7 months younger than Olson was when his deal was signed.

 

I wanted to have hope they’d extend him. But Devers called himself completely differently than how the Sox value him. Ideally both sides should budge. But I don’t know if either one will…

 

Unlike others, I'm not so sure Devers wants to leave Boston. It's a great hitters park for lefties, and he knows the Sox are still one of the higher spending teams in MLB, even over the last 2 years combined.

 

Fans love him.

 

I'm thinking Devers may have to move down by more than the Sox are willing to move up. Just a gut feeling.

[S5Dewey]

What is their longer term plan in your opinion?

 

It's hard for me to say what their long term plan is when it doesn't look like they know.

 

If I had to guess I'd say that their long term plan is to not pay any player the kind of money the top-shelf players are getting now and instead try to become the Tampa Bay Rays - build a farm club that will let the parent club usually finish in the top half of the AL East. IOW become average and reap the money from loyal Sox fans for as long as it lasts, then sell the club.

 

It certainly isn't to win now or to build a team that will win their division within the next couple of years.

[notin]

It's hard for me to say what their long term plan is when it doesn't look like they know.

 

If I had to guess I'd say that their long term plan is to not pay any player the kind of money the top-shelf players are getting now and instead try to become the Tampa Bay Rays - build a farm club that will let the parent club usually finish in the top half of the AL East. IOW become average and reap the money from loyal Sox fans for as long as it lasts, then sell the club.

 

It certainly isn't to win now or to build a team that will win their division within the next couple of years.

 

Probably worth noting the Rays have made the postseason the last four years. In 120 seasons, the Red Sox have never made the postseason 4 years in a row.

 

The Rays are a good team and have been for a while. This isn’t 2006 anymore…

[redsoxrules]

So, it's like Bogey redux.

 

Say no to $300M a few months ago, and now offer $300M, when he won't take it.

 

Isn't that the trap the Sox fell into with Bogey?

 

If the final offer to Lester was genuine, same with him. They could have had him for that offer, had they made it earlier.

 

Based on what we've heard they were never interested in Bogey. He was low balled badly. Which is too bad as he seemed to like Boston. The only way they have a shot with Devers is if he wants to stay here which in this case he might do like Pedroia and take a hometown discount and accept a figure around 290-300 Mil

[notin]

Based on what we've heard they were never interested in Bogey. He was low balled badly. Which is too bad as he seemed to like Boston. The only way they have a shot with Devers is if he wants to stay here which in this case he might do like Pedroia and take a hometown discount and accept a figure around 290-300 Mil

 

I don’t think they viewed Bogaerts as a long term solution, either. I mean, in the past 18 months they spent $140mill on one shortstop and spent two first round draft picks on two others. Sure doesn’t look like they planned on keeping him around forever…

[moonslav59]

It's hard for me to say what their long term plan is when it doesn't look like they know.

 

If I had to guess I'd say that their long term plan is to not pay any player the kind of money the top-shelf players are getting now and instead try to become the Tampa Bay Rays - build a farm club that will let the parent club usually finish in the top half of the AL East. IOW become average and reap the money from loyal Sox fans for as long as it lasts, then sell the club.

 

It certainly isn't to win now or to build a team that will win their division within the next couple of years.

 

I think saying we want to be like the Rays is hyperbole. The Rays would never spend $300M in a 9 month period.

 

Let's face it: Henry is spending money- just not on our beloved, homegrown players.

 

There are some owners going downright nutty with their spending, but Henry's total winter spending since the end of 2021 has been among the top 7 or 8, if I'm not mistakes.

 

Last winter:

$140M/6 Story

$19M/2 Barnes extension

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Paxton

$5M/1 R Hill

$4M/1 Diekman

$3M/1 Strahm

$2M/1 Robles

$11M more for JBJ over Renfroe (counting JBJ's buyout)

 

$197M Total last winter

 

This winter, so far:

$105M/5 Yoshida (counting posting fee)

$32M/2 Jansen

$22M/2 J Turner

$19M/2 Martin

$2M/1 or $6M/2 Joely

 

$180M Total, so far.

 

We will likely have spent between $380M and $400M over the last 2 winters, combined.

 

[moonslav59]

Based on what we've heard they were never interested in Bogey. He was low balled badly. Which is too bad as he seemed to like Boston. The only way they have a shot with Devers is if he wants to stay here which in this case he might do like Pedroia and take a hometown discount and accept a figure around 290-300 Mil

 

I've said all along, I don't think they ever valued Bogey at the "market rate" at any point on the timeline of contract talks.

 

They certainly never valued him at what BorA$$ was asking, of he'd be here.

 

I'd guess it might have something to do with his defense and reluctance to move off position, but it might have just been something very simple. They just did not ever place the value needed to get the job done. They might turn out to be right.

 

It's easy to look and say, had they only offered Bogey what they maybe offered him near the end, 2-9 months earlier, he might still be here, but the market going up is what might have changed their off- not what they thought he was valued at comparatively.

 

For argument's sake, say we could have gotten Bogey for $200M/8 back in March. The Sox must not have wanted him for that, or they thought nobody would offer than ,and he'd come back and settle for $190M/8 or lower. My guess is they didn't want him at even $190M/8. Then, when the price went up, their offer never kept pace or maybe even barely budged.

 

I cannot say for sure, but I'm thinking the Sox would not sign him, right now, for $210M/8. That's why he's gone. They might have grossly underestimated what other GMs would spend and truthfully felt they could sign him and were not lying when they said, he was their top priority.

 

We may never know. I could be way off.

 

[moonslav59]

I don’t think they viewed Bogaerts as a long term solution, either. I mean, in the past 18 months they spent $140mill on one shortstop and spent two first round draft picks on two others. Sure doesn’t look like they planned on keeping him around forever…

 

When we signed Story, my 50-50 odds on Bogey staying dropped to 20-80. It fell further as the season ended, and one we started seeing the mega deals being signed, I thought maybe 10% was too high.

[Bellhorn04]

I think saying we want to be like the Rays is hyperbole. The Rays would never spend $300M in a 9 month period.

 

Let's face it: Henry is spending money- just not on our beloved, homegrown players.

 

There are some owners going downright nutty with their spending, but Henry's total winter spending since the end of 2021 has been among the top 7 or 8, if I'm not mistakes.

 

Last winter:

$140M/6 Story

$19M/2 Barnes extension

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Paxton

$5M/1 R Hill

$4M/1 Diekman

$3M/1 Strahm

$2M/1 Robles

$11M more for JBJ over Renfroe (counting JBJ's buyout)

 

$197M Total last winter

 

This winter, so far:

$105M/5 Yoshida (counting posting fee)

$32M/2 Jansen

$22M/2 J Turner

$19M/2 Martin

$2M/1 or $6M/2 Joely

 

$180M Total, so far.

 

We will likely have spent between $380M and $400M over the last 2 winters, combined.

 

 

Doesn't really tell the whole story, though, because you're leaving out the salaries that came off the books.

 

Annual payroll and future commitments are the more meaningful spending numbers.

[S5Dewey]

Probably worth noting the Rays have made the postseason the last four years. In 120 seasons, the Red Sox have never made the postseason 4 years in a row.

 

The Rays are a good team and have been for a while. This isn’t 2006 anymore…

 

Having made the post season isn't a big deal with the extended playoffs and it certainly shouldn't be the goal for the Boston Red Sox. When one considers the money they've spent making the playoffs should be a given.

And how many WSC do they have in that past four years? Or the past 10 years? The answer is a big round number - 0. You're right. The Rays are a good team but not a great team and probably never will be a ALEast contender year after year. That's not a goal the Red Sox should have.

[Bellhorn04]

Having made the post season isn't a big deal with the extended playoffs and it certainly shouldn't be the goal for the Boston Red Sox. When one considers the money they've spent making the playoffs should be a given.

And how many WSC do they have in that past four years? Or the past 10 years? The answer is a big round number - 0. You're right. The Rays are a good team but not a great team and probably never will be a ALEast contender year after year. That's not a goal the Red Sox should have.

 

I know what you're saying, but they are an AL East contender year after year, aren't they?

[S5Dewey]

I think saying we want to be like the Rays is hyperbole. The Rays would never spend $300M in a 9 month period.

 

Let's face it: Henry is spending money- just not on our beloved, homegrown players.

 

We will likely have spent between $380M and $400M over the last 2 winters, combined.

 

 

It's not the amount of money Henry is spending that's the problem, it's the amount of money he's not spending. He (and Bloom) are consistently underestimating the market and whistling while owners who want to win and/or draw fans are setting the market.

 

Here's the question that goes unanswered: If the Dodgers, Yankees, and even the Padres can spend the money necessary to sign these players why can't the Boston Red Sox? Fenway is a big draw and they have a big NESN contract (which in itself feeds Henry). It's not a matter of their not being able to - the issue is that they refuse to. That's why they get stuck with 2nd tier players in their OF and looking for a SS at Christmas and their fans are becoming resigned to losing an AS 3rd baseman.

Edited December 21, 2022 by S5Dewey

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not the amount of money Henry is spending that's the problem, it's the amount of money he's not spending. He (and Bloom) are consistently underestimating the market and whistling while owners who want to win and/or draw fans are setting the market.

 

Here's the question that goes unanswered: If the Dodgers, Yankees, and even the Padres can spend the money necessary to sign these players why can't the Boston Red Sox?). Fenway is a big draw, they have a big NESN contract (which in itself feeds Henry). It's not a matter of their not being able to - the issue is that they refuse to. That's why they get stuck looking for a SS at Christmas while other teams are setting their rosters.

 

I've said it before: this is the only place where some diehard Red Sox fans are interested in how much Boston spends. Seriously, anywhere else I see or hear Sox fans, all they really care about is WHO that money is being spent on. And the last three or four years, who it's not being spent on...

[Bellhorn04]

Henry and Bloom are trying to be the smart guys in the room.

 

-Let the other teams get stuck with those albatross contracts to aging players.

-Lock up potential young stars much sooner. I think they will try to do this with Bello, Casas, hopefully Mayer.

 

But will this approach generate the desired results and do Red Sox fans have the stomach for it?

[Bellhorn04]

I've said it before: this is the only place where some diehard Red Sox fans are interested in how much Boston spends. Seriously, anywhere else I see or hear Sox fans, all they really care about is WHO that money is being spent on. And the last three or four years, who it's not being spent on...

 

Do you really think there are only 5-10 Red Sox fans who jabber about the payroll stuff? I think this goes on anywhere Sox fans can post their thoughts on the internet.

[notin]

I've said it before: this is the only place where some diehard Red Sox fans are interested in how much Boston spends. Seriously, anywhere else I see or hear Sox fans, all they really care about is WHO that money is being spent on. And the last three or four years, who it's not being spent on...

 

There are multiple websites with details of player contracts and team payroll. More than just Cots and Sportrac.

 

Do you think that entire cottage industry of websites is just to cater to 5-10 fans?

[cp176]

Henry and Bloom are trying to be the smart guys in the room.

 

-Let the other teams get stuck with those albatross contracts to aging players.

-Lock up potential young stars much sooner. I think they will try to do this with Bello, Casas, hopefully Mayer.

 

But will this approach generate the desired results and do Red Sox fans have the stomach for it?

 

I think that the amounts of money being thrown around today whether by the owners or to the players is obscene and has done nothing to improve the games fan appeal. We ain't going back I guess. I would also like to think that there is some method to the Red Sox madness, but what sign have they given to us that they have any intention of locking any of our hopefuls up long term? If there was some apparent plan other than something some suggest, maybe a few more fans could get behind them. Right now to me, they just look like a bunch of bumblers going along with no apparent clue.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are multiple websites with details of player contracts and team payroll. More than just Cots and Sportrac.

 

Do you think that entire cottage industry of websites is just to cater to 5-10 fans?

 

If you're asking my opinion, I think those sites based specifically on monetary values may exist to also cater to the industry, may be at least indirectly sponsored by the industry, and very well could be produced by people seeking employment in the industry (if they're not already).

 

My opinions can be totally wrong. But the fact is that Chaim Bloom got his start in the industry by researching and writing at least one analytical article on a baseball website.

[Old Red]

Henry and Bloom are trying to be the smart guys in the room.

 

-Let the other teams get stuck with those albatross contracts to aging players.

-Lock up potential young stars much sooner. I think they will try to do this with Bello, Casas, hopefully Mayer.

 

But will this approach generate the desired results and do Red Sox fans have the stomach for it?

 

Smart guys in the room? Locking up Casas, and Bello are fine, but to little to late especially on Mookie, and Raffy. Lots of promise, but that’s all it is at this point that Casas, Bello, and Mayer ever get to the level of Mookie, and Raffy. That kind on talent doesn’t grow on trees.

[S5Dewey]

I know what you're saying, but they are an AL East contender year after year, aren't they?

 

If you want to go back to since before Bloom took over I'd agree that they are "contenders year after year". However...

 

Sox finishes since Bloom too over as COO (or whatever that title is now)

2018 - Won their division with 108 wins! This team had Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers.

2019 - 3rd. Bloom took over after the end of the season, Betts got traded before 2020 season

2020 - Last

2021 - 2nd

2022 - Last, Lost Bogaerts to FA before the 2023 season

2023 - Unknown, but if losing Betts hurt the team then you also have to think that losing Bogarts will hurt too.

2024 - Unknown, but you can bet that if Devers goes to FA after 2023 this ain't gonna be pretty.

 

This team was a contender pre-Bloom but that hasn't really since Bloom took over. IMO one would have to be very naive to think the Sox can be competitive if they remain willing to let the best player on their team get away.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you want to go back to since before Bloom took over I'd agree that they are "contenders year after year". However...

 

Sox finishes since Bloom too over as COO (or whatever that title is now)

2018 - Won their division with 108 wins! This team had Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers.

2019 - 3rd. Bloom took over after the end of the season, Betts got traded before 2020 season

2020 - Last

2021 - 2nd

2022 - Last, Lost Bogaerts to FA before the 2023 season

2023 - Unknown, but if losing Betts hurt the team then you also have to think that losing Bogarts will hurt too.

2024 - Unknown, but you can bet that if Devers goes to FA after 2023 this ain't gonna be pretty.

 

This team was a contender pre-Bloom but that hasn't really since Bloom took over. IMO one would have to be very naive to think the Sox can be competitive if they remain willing to let the best player on their team get away.

 

It's easy to see the flaws in the plan or lack of plan for the years since '19. But a lot of us are failing to envision the new MLB and how rule changes will impact '23.

 

Bloom may be the Boss, but he's inspired by the words of another... we've got one last chance to make it real, to trade in these wings on some wheels.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

If you want to go back to since before Bloom took over I'd agree that they are "contenders year after year". However...

 

Sox finishes since Bloom too over as COO (or whatever that title is now)

2018 - Won their division with 108 wins! This team had Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers.

2019 - 3rd. Bloom took over after the end of the season, Betts got traded before 2020 season

2020 - Last

2021 - 2nd

2022 - Last, Lost Bogaerts to FA before the 2023 season

2023 - Unknown, but if losing Betts hurt the team then you also have to think that losing Bogarts will hurt too.

2024 - Unknown, but you can bet that if Devers goes to FA after 2023 this ain't gonna be pretty.

 

This team was a contender pre-Bloom but that hasn't really since Bloom took over. IMO one would have to be very naive to think the Sox can be competitive if they remain willing to let the best player on their team get away.

 

2018 was DD not Bloom...Bloom took over late in 2019 season...so he has done rather poorly.

[Bellhorn04]

If you want to go back to since before Bloom took over I'd agree that they are "contenders year after year". However...

 

Sox finishes since Bloom too over as COO (or whatever that title is now)

2018 - Won their division with 108 wins! This team had Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers.

2019 - 3rd. Bloom took over after the end of the season, Betts got traded before 2020 season

2020 - Last

2021 - 2nd

2022 - Last, Lost Bogaerts to FA before the 2023 season

2023 - Unknown, but if losing Betts hurt the team then you also have to think that losing Bogarts will hurt too.

2024 - Unknown, but you can bet that if Devers goes to FA after 2023 this ain't gonna be pretty.

 

This team was a contender pre-Bloom but that hasn't really since Bloom took over. IMO one would have to be very naive to think the Sox can be competitive if they remain willing to let the best player on their team get away.

 

Sorry, I thought we were talking about the Rays.

[enlightened]

If either party wanted to do a deal it would have been done by now. He's gone.

[notin]

2018 was DD not Bloom...Bloom took over late in 2019 season...so he has done rather poorly.

 

2020 can be looked at either way. The team was awful but the season was a slapdash joke.

 

2021 was good.

 

2022 was extremely disappointing. Especially after July 1…

[S5Dewey]

Smart guys in the room? Locking up Casas, and Bello are fine, but to little to late especially on Mookie, and Raffy. Lots of promise, but that’s all it is at this point that Casas, Bello, and Mayer ever get to the level of Mookie, and Raffy. That kind on talent doesn’t grow on trees.

 

The "secret" of course is to take a chance and sign your top prospects to long term deals before they prove themselves - which is pretty risky.

Equally risky is not signing them until they prove themselves.

 

But as long as we're on that topic (ok, *I* am on that topic) can we please pump the brakes just a bit on Mayer until he's proven himself at a level higher than A-Ball?

[Old Red]

The "secret" of course is to take a chance and sign your top prospects to long term deals before they prove themselves - which is pretty risky.

Equally risky is not signing them until they prove themselves.

 

But as long as we're on that topic (ok, *I* am on that topic) can we please pump the brakes just a bit on Mayer until he's proven himself at a level higher than A-Ball?

 

I agree, and like I’ve been saying for some time now that all Casas, Bello, and Mayer is are lots of promise at this point.

[notin]

The "secret" of course is to take a chance and sign your top prospects to long term deals before they prove themselves - which is pretty risky.

Equally risky is not signing them until they prove themselves.

 

But as long as we're on that topic (ok, *I* am on that topic) can we please pump the brakes just a bit on Mayer until he's proven himself at a level higher than A-Ball?

 

It’s not so risky if the deal isn’t outrageous. The Braves locked up Harris ($9mill AAV) and Strider ($12.5mill AAV) in in to deals that are still movable even if they don’t continue to progress. On the free agent market today, those AAVs get you Brandon Drury and Tyler Anderson …

[mvp 78]

The "secret" of course is to take a chance and sign your top prospects to long term deals before they prove themselves - which is pretty risky.

Equally risky is not signing them until they prove themselves.

 

But as long as we're on that topic (ok, *I* am on that topic) can we please pump the brakes just a bit on Mayer until he's proven himself at a level higher than A-Ball?

 

In terms of top-100 prospect rankings, Baseball America has him at No. 12, MLB Pipeline has him at No. 7, and FanGraphs has him at No. 19.

 

No, we will not be pumping the brakes. CHOOO CHOOOO....

[moonslav59]

Doesn't really tell the whole story, though, because you're leaving out the salaries that came off the books.

 

Annual payroll and future commitments are the more meaningful spending numbers.

 

Cots shows the CB Tax 40-man as such:

 

$184.9M in 2020 (adjusted)

$207.6M in 2021

$241.8M in 2022

 

I'm not going to do the research, but how many other teams saw this number increase by 31% in the last 2 years, not counting this winter? (185>242)

 

Several teams have, but my guess is we were top 6-8.

 

We've only spent about $50M of the $90M we had to spend, this winter, so it remains to be seen where we end up, but we won't be increasing the player payroll from 2022. I'm pretty certain of that.

 

My point is all the noise ab out JH being cheap. I'm not defending a rich guy like him for choosing not to spend more. I wish he would and think he should, but let's not pretend he's gone cheap in comparison to 2/3rd or more of MLB owners. He's still spending- just not in big bunches and not one the players we have come to love and want back.