Xander Bogaerts has signed with San Diego Padres

[Hugh2]

The guy they should have extended after 2016 was Betts: 8.2 fWAR. If they were going to focus extensions that offseason it would have started and ended with him.

 

Absolutely. But if you’re going that route it can’t just be one guy. That’s why I use JBJ as an example. Look at the talent Atlanta locked up.

[mvp 78]

Exactly, add in what one possible addition (such as Kluber might do).

 

Thing is, I think all of these things are perfectly plausible, but all of them happening seems improbable. If all those things happened and Sale looks like Ace Chris Sale then it’s a 90+ win team.

 

How often does everything break right?

 

2013

2021

 

I wouldn't take my chances on all of those things breaking right this year.

 

My guess would be:

 

Sale pitches most of the year, but his numbers are more like 2019 than anything else.

Paxton pitches about 75 innings and has long IL stints.

Bello is good.

Whitlock pitches like a #3.

Sox don't pick up anyone remarkable in FA for the rotation.

 

Yes, this is the most 85 win team of all time.

[mvp 78]

I was thinking 100/8 He put up a 5.8 WAR that season, you’d be buying up 3 arb years that we’re looking pretty costly.

 

Players don't typically make THAT much the first year in arbitration. A lot of JBJ's value comes from his glove which isn't adequately reimbursed through ARB procedures either.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely. But if you’re going that route it can’t just be one guy. That’s why I use JBJ as an example. Look at the talent Atlanta locked up.

 

Yeah, JBJ would have gotten the Albies deal, not an Acuna deal.

[Hugh2]

Players don't typically make THAT much the first year in arbitration. A lot of JBJ's value comes from his glove which isn't adequately reimbursed through ARB procedures either.

 

No but take a time machine back to 2016. JBJ looked like a perennial GG centerfielder who would give you over .800 ops and he hit 26 bombs that year too. That was the player he looked like he was growing into. What does that guy get on the market?

[Hugh2]

Albies is a good comp, maybe I’m overshooting it a bit. But on the other hand, I’m also talking about buying out more free agent years. Otherwise you’re left with another situation where a guy like Bogaerts walks when he’s 30.

[mvp 78]

No but take a time machine back to 2016. JBJ looked like a perennial GG centerfielder who would give you over .800 ops and he hit 26 bombs that year too. That was the player he looked like he was growing into. What does that guy get on the market?

 

The OPEN MARKET doesn't factor into the early career extensions at all.

[mvp 78]

Albies is a good comp, maybe I’m overshooting it a bit. But on the other hand, I’m also talking about buying out more free agent years. Otherwise you’re left with another situation where a guy like Bogaerts walks when he’s 30.

 

The opt out year only favors the player and offers no safety valve for the team. Better that the Sox just add in extra money and not put the option in.

[moonslav59]

The opt out year only favors the player and offers no safety valve for the team. Better that the Sox just add in extra money and not put the option in.

 

Maybe tried but not accepted, so the opt out became better than nothing.

[Hugh2]

The OPEN MARKET doesn't factor into the early career extensions at all.

 

I’m not saying it does whole heartedly but once you start buying those years up you have to take into account the potential value the player is leaving on the table.

[moonslav59]

I’m not saying it does whole heartedly but once you start buying those years up you have to take into account the potential value the player is leaving on the table.

 

That's what it's all about.

 

Both sides weigh the risks and rewards and pull the trigger... or not.

[Hugh2]

The opt out year only favors the player and offers no safety valve for the team. Better that the Sox just add in extra money and not put the option in.

 

While this is generally true, I'm sure there's some instances where a team benefits from having a player for a few extra years in his prime but then someone else pays for his 30's.

[Bellhorn04]

While this is generally true, I'm sure there's some instances where a team benefits from having a player for a few extra years in his prime but then someone else pays for his 30's.

 

Agreed. But it's pure luck. Put it this way, the odds are that the team will not benefit from it, only the player.

[Hugh2]

Agreed. But it's pure luck. Put it this way, the odds are that the team will not benefit from it, only the player.

 

If you're locking guys up early and buying out their arb years and getting their free agency year into their early/mid 30's you're coming out on top. If they did Bogey (longer) Betts, Benintendi and JBJ years ago they'd be 3/4 right now. I'm imagining them locking up their 2018 core as early as 2015/2016. In that scenario, the amount of money you save on Betts/Bogaerts pays for JBJ 5 times over. You probably come out even and a little ahead on Benintendi. So I'd rather pay a little bit more and have these contracts without any opt-outs. But, on the other hand, I'd take a deal with an opt-out in-out over no deal with Devers.

 

At this point, that may be the only way to get Devers to sign an extension.

[jad]

Wow, Bloom says he has "a couple of regrets" about letting Bogey go but declines to say what they were. Why would anyone believe anything coming from the guy who dismantled the team (Betts, Bogey, JD, Beni, JBJ, likely-Devers, Vaz) while denying all the time that was his goal.

 

I hope the BloomSox (a guy who masturbates in public, another who assaults players over fantasy sports, one accused of kidnapping an underage girl when he was signed, an injury-prone .200 hitter, ... who am I forgetting here?) play to an empty park while losing 162 games next season.

[moonslav59]

Wow, Bloom says he has "a couple of regrets" about letting Bogey go but declines to say what they were. Why would anyone believe anything coming from the guy who dismantled the team (Betts, Bogey, JD, Beni, JBJ, likely-Devers, Vaz) while denying all the time that was his goal.

 

I hope the BloomSox (a guy who masturbates in public, another who assaults players over fantasy sports, one accused of kidnapping an underage girl when he was signed, an injury-prone .200 hitter, ... who am I forgetting here?) play to an empty park while losing 162 games next season.

 

So, you wanted JBJ to stay?

[moonslav59]

 

I hope the BloomSox (a guy who masturbates in public, another who assaults players over fantasy sports, one accused of kidnapping an underage girl when he was signed, an injury-prone .200 hitter, ... who am I forgetting here?) play to an empty park while losing 162 games next season.

 

Too bad we didn't sign Bauer or trade for Tatis.

[a700hitter]

Too bad we didn't sign Bauer or trade for Tatis.

Bloom only signs low cost reprobates.

[Jasonbay44]

Wow, Bloom says he has "a couple of regrets" about letting Bogey go but declines to say what they were. Why would anyone believe anything coming from the guy who dismantled the team (Betts, Bogey, JD, Beni, JBJ, likely-Devers, Vaz) while denying all the time that was his goal.

 

I hope the BloomSox (a guy who masturbates in public, another who assaults players over fantasy sports, one accused of kidnapping an underage girl when he was signed, an injury-prone .200 hitter, ... who am I forgetting here?) play to an empty park while losing 162 games next season.

 

Who is the one who kidnapped an underage girl? I’m not sure I’m familiar with that story

[moonslav59]

Bloom only signs low cost reprobates.

 

Over $100M for Yoshida does not fit that mold. Not that many months ago, he signed Story to $140M.

 

Are these guys child molsters?

 

[mvp 78]

Who is the one who kidnapped an underage girl? I’m not sure I’m familiar with that story

 

Confusion about the Verdugo story? I’m not sure.

 

The Sox previously had Urbina, Cordero and Wright. Plus the clubhouse attendant…

[Jasonbay44]

Confusion about the Verdugo story? I’m not sure.

 

The Sox previously had Urbina, Cordero and Wright. Plus the clubhouse attendant…

 

I’m aware of all those guys, and know Julio Lugo was in trouble shortly before his death for kidnapping, and beating his wife but I have no idea what this underage kidnapping story is or who it’s about

[Jasonbay44]

The Washington Post reported last year about the incident, though it didn't name any of the players involved because no charges were filed. A 17-year-old girl accused one player of posting a video to social media of two other girls beating her. She later alleged that another player -- not Verdugo -- had sexually assaulted during a night of partying at a hotel and that she was raped.

 

The suggestion was then made that Verdugo had not stopped the second assault, though there's no evidence to support he was even aware it had happened.

 

 

"I have regrets obviously what had transpired that night with certain events," he said. "There was an investigation and like I said, I was cleared of anything wrongdoing, and if I was around for anything that happened, I would've put a stop to it. I would've helped out. I would've done something. There's a lot of mixed reports about it. I just felt like this was a good time to get my truth out and how I am. It sucks, but we're going to work through and keep getting better and we're just going to keep going on."

[Jasonbay44]

I mean it sounds like something absolutely awful happened to that girl, but I don’t see any evidence supporting Verdugo directly did anything Or had any involvement.

[jad]

I mean it sounds like something absolutely awful happened to that girl, but I don’t see any evidence supporting Verdugo directly did anything Or had any involvement.

 

That's correct. But when Bloom signed him, he had NOT been cleared of these charges. It wouldn't mean much, except for the rest of the guys Bloom has signed who were signed at the height of their legal difficulties. Bloom knows a good deal when he sees it. And character-guys like Betts and Vaz, why, you actually need to pay them what their value is, and no way he's doing that.

[moonslav59]

The negativity is going beyond what I could have ever expected.

 

This is very sad.

[jad]

The negativity is going beyond what I could have ever expected.

 

This is very sad.

 

OK. So show me, as a Bloom apologist, the positivity in getting rid of 6 or 7 of the best and most popular RS players. Players that we have followed for years, have been very productive, and by and large model citizens. Why we should feel good about that?

[Jasonbay44]

That's correct. But when Bloom signed him, he had NOT been cleared of these charges. It wouldn't mean much, except for the rest of the guys Bloom has signed who were signed at the height of their legal difficulties. Bloom knows a good deal when he sees it. And character-guys like Betts and Vaz, why, you actually need to pay them what their value is, and no way he's doing that.

 

It happened in 2015, he was cleared a long time ago, and well before the trade. The media just brought it up and labeled him an “off the field risk” when realistically he’s done nothing, he didn’t even do anything that night, he was at the wrong place when something horrible happened and was questioned.

[notin]

Confusion about the Verdugo story? I’m not sure.

 

The Sox previously had Urbina, Cordero and Wright. Plus the clubhouse attendant…

 

Don’t forget Julio Valdez…

[moonslav59]

OK. So show me, as a Bloom apologist, the positivity in getting rid of 6 or 7 of the best and most popular RS players. Players that we have followed for years, have been very productive, and by and large model citizens. Why we should feel good about that?

 

Where have I even hinted at anyone needing to feel good about this?

 

I have said it sucks and am not happy.

 

I'm fine with saying good bye to Nate, Vaz and Beni. JD is over the hill. Bringing him back makes us no better. I was happy JBJ signed with the Brewers and was glad Bloom let him go. Not sure if you counted him in your "6-7 Players," but he was my favorite player. I was pissed at Bloom for bringing him back, and apparently that is being an apologist in your warped mind.

 

I hated seeing Betts go and suggested offering him more than anyone on this board. I happen to not blame Bloom for Mookie's departure and don't view it as being a Bloom apologist.

 

I don't think Bogey was worth close to what he got, and agree we messed up the whole situation, but I would not sign him to $200M/8, even know. Nothing to do with Bloom of not loving Bogey as much as you do.

 

I'm the driver of the Devers Forvers bandwagon and supported the Sale extension, so does that make me a DD apologist?

 

I'll be super pissed if Devers is not extended, but I don't think it will be Bloom's call. If that's being an apologist, you need to look up what the word means.

 

I hated seeing many Sox players go. We've won afterwards, so I'm not throwing in the towel over losing Bogey. I'm going to root for my Sox and try to be optimistic.

 

You and others can go on choosing negativity and wallowing in the mire. That doesn't make me happy with what has happened, but I'm not giving up on my team.

 

Why don't you go root for the Dodgers. They have more players you love.