Xander Bogaerts has signed with San Diego Padres

[moonslav59]

I think my concerns for the Sox at SS this season, with Story at SS it's not about the strength of his arm, but that his arm just might not hold up health wise. If he can stay healthy and maintain that position until Mayer is ready, then I guess I'm fine with it. I think I preferred him at 2b though because his defense really played up there.

 

There is still ample time and options for adding a SS and solving this whole mess at middle IF.

 

Maybe the options dwindle, if we are seeking only a 1 year contract, and that's what the hold up is, but I agree: don't risk blowing out Story's arm trying to use him as a one year "bridge" to Mayer.

 

In all honesty, I'd rather we just suck at SS and play Arroyo there than risk Story's future. It's weird how we dumped Park & Downs. I have to think a SS addition is on the horizon, but maybe it's just wishful thinking.

[moonslav59]

But the Sox got back to the postseason in 2016. Really, that’s the goal, because any team can go on a run, like Philly did last year.

 

Now the Sox did get back to the postseason 3 years after 2018. But they failed to sustain that run like they were able to 6-7 years ago…

 

Yes, we purged 80% of a nice rotation plus Andrew Miller and made the playoffs 1.5 years, later.

 

Fans were not happy after those trades, to say the least. Lester was "homegrown" and beloved by fans. He loved Boston and how they stuck with him through his bout with cancer. It was not a happy ending, and fans/posters still bitch about how we handled his departure, but winning helped ease that pain.

 

Winning sooner is much better than later.

 

The 2021 season seemed to help with the loss of Betts, Price and Kimbrel, but it can turn sour, real quick as we see, now.

[mvp 78]

I thought this was the winter to reverse that quantity vs quality dynamic or balance, but it doesn't look like now was the time. I'm not so sure if it ever will be.

 

Is this your belief, or just what you think the organization currently believes?

 

If they don't offer Raffy 10/300, why?

[mvp 78]

I prefer him at 2b and Andrus at SS.

 

The Miguel Rojas buzz tells me Bloom is a big fan of DRS. Jacob Stallings lead MLB at catcher in that same defensive metric in 2021…

 

Looks like Rojas is a really good defender at all IF positions. Does seem like a guy Bloom would want.

[Bellhorn04]

Is this your belief, or just what you think the organization currently believes?

 

If they don't offer Raffy 10/300, why?

 

I think Bloom has a new narrative all set to go: If you're going to lock guys up, do it early or not at all.

 

So as notin suggested earlier, we may see extension offers to Bello and Casas.

[mvp 78]

Yes, we purged 80% of a nice rotation plus Andrew Miller and made the playoffs 1.5 years, later.

 

Fans were not happy after those trades, to say the least. Lester was "homegrown" and beloved by fans. He loved Boston and how they stuck with him through his bout with cancer. It was not a happy ending, and fans/posters still bitch about how we handled his departure, but winning helped ease that pain.

 

Winning sooner is much better than later.

 

The 2021 season seemed to help with the loss of Betts, Price and Kimbrel, but it can turn sour, real quick as we see, now.

 

I'm not sure fans really cared about the loss of Price or Kimbrel. I think losing Betts, Xander and Raffy are BIG concerns.

[mvp 78]

I think Bloom has a new narrative all set to go: If you're going to lock guys up, do it early or not at all.

 

So as notin suggested earlier, we may see extension offers to Bello and Casas.

 

Are you comfortable with locking them up now? After next season?

[Bellhorn04]

Are you comfortable with locking them up now? After next season?

 

I'm not comfortable with anything.

 

But yeah, maybe after the 2023 season.

[mvp 78]

I'm not comfortable with anything.

 

But yeah, maybe after the 2023 season.

 

That would make sense to me too. I think I'd want at least one full season of these guys before I went long.

[Hugh2]

Locking up guys early has risk too. Here’s some food for thought, would have looked amazing to have locked up JBJ for 8+ seasons after 2016.

 

Still, you win some and you lose some, you’d have made up for that through paying less for guys like Bogaerts/Devers.

 

I’d be comfortable rolling the dice on guys like Bello/Casas. If the feeling is two way, and you can wait a season on those guys too

Edited December 19, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

Is this your belief, or just what you think the organization currently believes?

 

If they don't offer Raffy 10/300, why?

 

It was my own belief that we had reached the point where we were 4-5 key players away from a good chance at glory and had $80M to fill those slots. It seemed like enough. The statement made to Kike about getting better fed my optimism. I did not expect hearing Bloom's statement about adding 7-9 players. That's what we did, last winter, and I thought we'd lessened the slot need totals.

 

I wrongly assumed the Sox felt the same way, and the market price explosions changed the calculus on how much $80M could go towards filling those 4-5 slots. The market surge probably changed my hopes from 4-5 key additions to maybe 3-4, before we even got to what the Sox were thinking.

 

I have no idea what their reasoning for not offering Devers $300M/10 by now, or shortly. My guess is they think it is too much of an overpay and are locked into the value setting formula to deviate from it based solely on fanbase disgust. They've seen the fans get over losing stars before by quickly turning the team into a winner, and maybe they have convinced themselves they are doing that this winter by beefing up the pen, adding offense they think will replace Bogey and JD, and continuing their slow build up of the farm and 40 man roster.

 

I keep thinking they are trying to time a splurge spending spree just right, but I have my doubts it happens, anytime soon.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure fans really cared about the loss of Price or Kimbrel. I think losing Betts, Xander and Raffy are BIG concerns.

 

Once we started losing in 2019, the Kimbrel and kelly loses were hot topics- along with the babying SP'ers in ST'ing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I prefer him at 2b and Andrus at SS.

 

The Miguel Rojas buzz tells me Bloom is a big fan of DRS. Jacob Stallings lead MLB at catcher in that same defensive metric in 2021…

 

Agree. Arm strength at shortstop isn't just about throwing out batters at first base. The shortstop is the QB of the entire infield, handles the most relays from the outfield, and is also entrusted to nail baserunners at third and home.

 

The position was always where a team put the fielder with the best hands, best glove and best arm. Big bats at shortstop weren't ever a trend until humans started growing due to steroids in their milk and needles in their flesh.

[Hugh2]

It was my own belief that we had reached the point where we were 4-5 key players away from a good chance at glory and had $80M to fill those slots. It seemed like enough. The statement made to Kike about getting better fed my optimism. I did not expect hearing Bloom's statement about adding 7-9 players. That's what we did, last winter, and I thought we'd lessened the slot need totals.

 

I wrongly assumed the Sox felt the same way, and the market price explosions changed the calculus on how much $80M could go towards filling those 4-5 slots. The market surge probably changed my hopes from 4-5 key additions to maybe 3-4, before we even got to what the Sox were thinking.

 

I have no idea what their reasoning for not offering Devers $300M/10 by now, or shortly. My guess is they think it is too much of an overpay and are locked into the value setting formula to deviate from it based solely on fanbase disgust. They've seen the fans get over losing stars before by quickly turning the team into a winner, and maybe they have convinced themselves they are doing that this winter by beefing up the pen, adding offense they think will replace Bogey and JD, and continuing their slow build up of the farm and 40 man roster.

 

I keep thinking they are trying to time a splurge spending spree just right, but I have my doubts it happens, anytime soon.

 

My only problem with setting value on a player and holding your ground is you may be missing out. Someone made a similar argument on another board not too long ago. Let’s say their valuation models are good. That’s great! But if you’re the most rational guy in the room every time, you will probably lose the bidding every time. The most irrational guy will win almost every time.

 

I’m pro nerd, but in this instance the nerd becomes too smart for his own good. Rather, they should think about WHO is worth breaking the model for?

 

If the sign a guy to be an 7 WAR player and he’s only a 5 WAR player you still have a better player at said position than if you pay a guy for 3 WAR and he gives you 3.1 War.

 

I get not wanting a $300 million dollar payroll seemingly into perpetuity, but you gotta roll the dice on someone. They have not, and if they fail in 2023 they need to face that harsh reality.

[Old Red]

My only problem with setting value on a player and holding your ground is you may be missing out. Someone made a similar argument on another board not too long ago. Let’s say their valuation models are good. That’s great! But if you’re the most rational guy in the room every time, you will probably lose the bidding every time. The most irrational guy will win almost every time.

 

I’m pro nerd, but in this instance the nerd becomes too smart for his own good. Rather, they should think about WHO is worth breaking the model for?

 

If the sign a guy to be an 7 WAR player and he’s only a 5 WAR player you still have a better player at said position than if you pay a guy for 3 WAR and he gives you 3.1 War.

 

I get not wanting a $300 million dollar payroll seemingly into perpetuity, but you gotta roll the dice on someone. They have not, and if they fail in 2023 they need to face that harsh reality.

Very well said. I’ve always been against 10/yr $300M+ contracts, but that’s the game that is played today, and if you don’t want to play that way you will lose out in more ways than one.

[mvp 78]

Locking up guys early has risk too. Here’s some food for thought, would have looked amazing to have locked up JBJ for 8+ seasons after 2018.

 

Still, you win some and you lose some, you’d have made up for that through paying less for guys like Bogaerts/Devers.

 

I’d be comfortable rolling the dice on guys like Bello/Casas. If the feeling is two way, and you can wait a season on those guys too

 

Locking JBJ up after 2018 doesn't equate to what we're proposing with Bello and Casas.

[Hugh2]

Locking JBJ up after 2018 doesn't equate to what we're proposing with Bello and Casas.

 

How so? I understand the years are different. But any deal done with 4 or more years of team control left should give the team a hefty discount for a star player.

 

Of note, I was thinking of 2016 JBJ.

[moonslav59]

My only problem with setting value on a player and holding your ground is you may be missing out. Someone made a similar argument on another board not too long ago. Let’s say their valuation models are good. That’s great! But if you’re the most rational guy in the room every time, you will probably lose the bidding every time. The most irrational guy will win almost every time.

 

I’m pro nerd, but in this instance the nerd becomes too smart for his own good. Rather, they should think about WHO is worth breaking the model for?

 

If the sign a guy to be an 7 WAR player and he’s only a 5 WAR player you still have a better player at said position than if you pay a guy for 3 WAR and he gives you 3.1 War.

 

I get not wanting a $300 million dollar payroll seemingly into perpetuity, but you gotta roll the dice on someone. They have not, and if they fail in 2023 they need to face that harsh reality.

 

Well said, and you have to guess right to even pay for a 7 WAR guy and get 4-5. The highest salary signing list is littered with total failures- some even from day one (like Crawford, Pablito and HRam) and another big chunk of the list is paying for 3-7 WARs and getting 1-3 WARs.

 

Look at the list and tell me what percent reached even 5 out of the hoped 7 level. Look at the Sox list, and it might be even worse, especially if you count the Agon & Sale extensions.

 

I get your point, but with such odds against you, it makes some sense to think spreading the risk is a better strategy. It worked in 2013, but that may be an outlier and not something you try to repeat.

[moonslav59]

How so? I understand the years are different. But any deal done with 4 or more years of team control left should give the team a hefty discount for a star player.

 

Of note, I was thinking of 2016 JBJ.

 

Yes, 2016 JBJ is a better example, and would have been a failure.

 

We did lock up Whitlock after 1 year, but don't have any one year guys like him, right now. Maybe Bello & Casas could be extended mid season of after 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Well said, and you have to guess right to even pay for a 7 WAR guy and get 4-5. The highest salary signing list is littered with total failures- some even from day one (like Crawford, Pablito and HRam) and another big chunk of the list is paying for 3-7 WARs and getting 1-3 WARs.

 

Look at the list and tell me what percent reached even 5 out of the hoped 7 level. Look at the Sox list, and it might be even worse, especially if you count the Agon & Sale extensions.

 

I get your point, but with such odds against you, it makes some sense to think spreading the risk is a better strategy. It worked in 2013, but that may be an outlier and not something you try to repeat.

 

And 2013 had the classic example of Shane Victorino, who exceeded expectations greatly for one year and helped win a World Series, and then was useless the last two years of his contract.

[mvp 78]

It was my own belief that we had reached the point where we were 4-5 key players away from a good chance at glory and had $80M to fill those slots. It seemed like enough. The statement made to Kike about getting better fed my optimism. I did not expect hearing Bloom's statement about adding 7-9 players. That's what we did, last winter, and I thought we'd lessened the slot need totals.

 

Joely 2M

Kenley 16M

Turner 11M

Martin 7M

Yoshida 18M

 

So they still have about 26 left to spend on 2-4 players.

 

Per the FanGraphs crowdsource:

Kluber 12M

Andrus 10M

Lugo 5M

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think it was Friedman who said a team that's always rational about free agents is headed for third place.

 

(Bloom heard him, and is thinking: "Hmmm, with an extra wild card -- we're right in it")

[Hugh2]

I think it was Friedman who said a team that's always rational about free agents is headed for third place.

 

(Bloom heard him, and is thinking: "Hmmm, with an extra wild card -- we're right in it")

 

I think this team is better, and a lot of that will show up in guys already on the roster having better seasons. But this is an 85 win team, maybe 89 if everything breaks right.

 

With enough injuries and bad luck, they could easily finish last again.

[mvp 78]

How so? I understand the years are different. But any deal done with 4 or more years of team control left should give the team a hefty discount for a star player.

 

Of note, I was thinking of 2016 JBJ.

 

So they lock up JBJ in 2016 and he ends up signing a cheaper Jayson Heyward contract? 8/whatever. It's not great, but I'm guessing they would have been buying out some ARB years getting some sort of discount.

[Hugh2]

So they lock up JBJ in 2016 and he ends up signing a cheaper Jayson Heyward contract? 8/whatever. It's not great, but I'm guessing they would have been buying out some ARB years getting some sort of discount.

 

Absolutely, but he’d be ok the books right now for another 2-4 years for probably something around 10-15 per.

[mvp 78]

I think this team is better, and a lot of that will show up in guys already on the roster having better seasons. But this is an 85 win team, maybe 89 if everything breaks right.

 

With enough injuries and bad luck, they could easily finish last again.

 

The wild card is the rotation.

 

IF Sale pitches close to a full season and what he provides.

IF Paxton can go 150 innings.

IF Bello can add on to what he did last year.

IF Whitlock can be a 3rd starter or better.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely, but he’d be ok the books right now for another 2-4 years for probably something around 10-15 per.

 

They wouldn't have signed him to a 10/120M contract after 2016. Yes, there is a risk though. I don't remember too many of these early extension contracts becoming bad deals for the clubs though.

[Hugh2]

The wild card is the rotation.

 

IF Sale pitches close to a full season and what he provides.

IF Paxton can go 150 innings.

IF Bello can add on to what he did last year.

IF Whitlock can be a 3rd starter or better.

 

Exactly, add in what one possible addition (such as Kluber might do).

 

Thing is, I think all of these things are perfectly plausible, but all of them happening seems improbable. If all those things happened and Sale looks like Ace Chris Sale then it’s a 90+ win team.

 

How often does everything break right?

[mvp 78]

The guy they should have extended after 2016 was Betts: 8.2 fWAR. If they were going to focus extensions that offseason it would have started and ended with him.

[Hugh2]

They wouldn't have signed him to a 10/120M contract after 2016. Yes, there is a risk though. I don't remember too many of these early extension contracts becoming bad deals for the clubs though.

 

I was thinking 100/8 He put up a 5.8 WAR that season, you’d be buying up 3 arb years that we’re looking pretty costly.