Xander Bogaerts has signed with San Diego Padres

[moonslav59]

Don't your shoulders get tired from carrying all that water for the Sox FO?

 

First of all, you can't blame them for not seeing the "uptick" in salaries? What's happened isn't an uptick, it's a pattern. Bogaerts contract (based on AAV) is only the 11th most valuable contract signed in the past five years. There's only one reason for them not seeing what he was going to get and that reason is that they weren't looking. That's only the first evidence of incompetence.

The second evidence of their incompetence is if, as you say, they didn't recognize that he's an elite player. Everyone in the league knew it so, again, were they not looking?

This does raise the question of whether it's incompetent to lie to the fans by saying that signing Bogaerts was their "top priority" when according to Bogaerts the Sox offer was so far below the Padres offer that it wasn't worth considering. Is lying the same as incompetence? Maybe not, if it serves the purpose of trying to sell tickets.

 

Point #2

There seems to always be the same excuse for losing their elite players.

Lester...well... we should have handled it better.

Betts....well... we should have handled it better.

Bogaerts...well... we should have handled it better.

Now the FO is in the same situation with Devers, that they've waited too long to sign him. This should have been done over a year ago but... well... they should have handled it better.

 

I can understand a team's making a mistake once or maybe even twice but they now are 4-for-4. That's a good day for a hitter but a poor career when it comes to botching contract negotiations with elite players.

 

1) I said you CAN BLAME him for failing to project an uptick. (I doubt anyone saw Bogey getting $280M.)

2) Recognizing an elite player does mean you pay them anything and everything, and I agree it came down to what value they assigned never was what Boras demanded, which may or may not have been an acceptable market price at any time. Even if it was, the Sox never valued him that much. Right or wrong.

3) Thinking we might get Bogey at $200M/8 and saying he's a top priority may not be a lie, and nobody really knows how close we ever came to what it would have taken. If they thought they could have gotten him for ____ and they grossly underestimated, one could call that incompetence, but it still doesn't mean they'd have chosen to pay what it took. (I'm still not sure we made the wrong choice. Bogey is an elite hitter who is not an elite defender as we move away from the shift and he made it known, he does not want to change positions.)

 

We have no idea of knowing what they wanted. IMO, they never wanted Lester at even the last offer they made him, so I do think all the talk could have been a bald face lie, but they also could really have thought they were going to get him at a price they felt he'd take and SD blew them out of the water. Incompetence? Maybe. Maybe they set a price that was what he was worth of even more, and they missed out. I'm not sure it's a mistake. Only time will tell, and the record of highest priced FAs earning their keep is not great. It's easy to scream "YOU F'd UP!" But, let's see.

 

While I had hoped we signed Betts, I think they handled that one about as well as could be expected. $300M, at that time was a fair offer. When they knew he was going to free agency they got what appeared to be about the best they could for him.

 

The stupid 30 year old pitcher rule was at the heart of the Lester fiasco. No argument from me on that one.

 

What upsets me about the Bogey situation is that it doesn't appear like we are going to spend what we were prepared to offer him, whatever that was, on other higher quality players.

 

If we trade for a solid #1/2 SP'er and sign Andrus and maybe Kluber or Fulmer, I'd be fine with the winter moves, in totality, despite hating to see Bogey go.

[S5Dewey]

What I'm certain of is that the Red Sox want to keep that golden goose that's made JH rich(er) they are going to have to have a 'Come to Jesus" moment with the salary issue in MLB. Their fans aren't going to want to listen to them say "we should have done that differently" while finishing in the bottom half of the division much longer. They're going to have to decide if they want to be competitive year after year or if they're willing to become an also-ran. While they will never publicly acknowledge their decision the fans are perceptive... they'll see it.... and act accordingly. The argument can be made that they are already acting accordingly.

[Bellhorn04]

If we trade for a solid #1/2 SP'er and sign Andrus and maybe Kluber or Fulmer, I'd be fine with the winter moves, in totality, despite hating to see Bogey go.

 

Those are some fairly sizable ifs.

[jgar658]

I bet a case of Coca Cola that if Kike stays healthy he could have numbers comparable to Xanders playing SS in San Diego.

Boston simply needs pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

I bet a case of Coca Cola that if Kike stays healthy he could have numbers comparable to Xanders playing SS in San Diego.

Boston simply needs pitching.

 

Well, let's look at their OPS+ the last 5 years:

 

Bogey

2018 135

2019 139

2020 128

2021 129

2022 131

 

Kike

2018 117

2019 87

2020 81

2021 108

2022 75

 

That makes Xander a 30-40% better hitter.

 

Did Santa put some really nice ganja under the tree for you this year?

[Bellhorn04]

1) I said you CAN BLAME him for failing to project an uptick. (I doubt anyone saw Bogey getting $280M.)

2) Recognizing an elite player does mean you pay them anything and everything, and I agree it came down to what value they assigned never was what Boras demanded, which may or may not have been an acceptable market price at any time. Even if it was, the Sox never valued him that much. Right or wrong.

3) Thinking we might get Bogey at $200M/8 and saying he's a top priority may not be a lie, and nobody really knows how close we ever came to what it would have taken. If they thought they could have gotten him for ____ and they grossly underestimated, one could call that incompetence, but it still doesn't mean they'd have chosen to pay what it took. (I'm still not sure we made the wrong choice. Bogey is an elite hitter who is not an elite defender as we move away from the shift and he made it known, he does not want to change positions.)

 

We have no idea of knowing what they wanted. IMO, they never wanted Lester at even the last offer they made him, so I do think all the talk could have been a bald face lie, but they also could really have thought they were going to get him at a price they felt he'd take and SD blew them out of the water. Incompetence? Maybe. Maybe they set a price that was what he was worth of even more, and they missed out. I'm not sure it's a mistake. Only time will tell, and the record of highest priced FAs earning their keep is not great. It's easy to scream "YOU F'd UP!" But, let's see.

 

While I had hoped we signed Betts, I think they handled that one about as well as could be expected. $300M, at that time was a fair offer. When they knew he was going to free agency they got what appeared to be about the best they could for him.

 

The stupid 30 year old pitcher rule was at the heart of the Lester fiasco. No argument from me on that one.

 

What upsets me about the Bogey situation is that it doesn't appear like we are going to spend what we were prepared to offer him, whatever that was, on other higher quality players.

 

The team could hire you as a defense lawyer. You know how to break things down into the contingencies and qualifiers and cast shadows of doubt everywhere.

 

To use a current popular expression, from the "30,000 foot view", it seems strange that a team with the wealth of the Red Sox has failed to retain 3 young stars like Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. You'd think they'd manage to hold onto one of them at least.

[Old Red]

The team could hire you as a defense lawyer. You know how to break things down into the contingencies and qualifiers and cast shadows of doubt everywhere.

 

To use a current popular expression, from the "30,000 foot view", it seems strange that a team with the wealth of the Red Sox has failed to retain 3 young stars like Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. You'd think they'd manage to hold onto one of them at least.

 

The best Christmas present JH could give the Red Sox Nation right now would be to sell the team to someone who wants to play ball. JH usefulness has come, and gone. Thanks for the memories (4) championships, but what have you done for me since 2018? Losing 3 homegrown future HOF is unacceptable. Lumps of coal to the season ticket holders on the way out. What a way to go.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Old Red

[notin]

The team could hire you as a defense lawyer. You know how to break things down into the contingencies and qualifiers and cast shadows of doubt everywhere.

 

To use a current popular expression, from the "30,000 foot view", it seems strange that a team with the wealth of the Red Sox has failed to retain 3 young stars like Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. You'd think they'd manage to hold onto one of them at least.

 

Technically they still do have Devers. I still think they work something out in Spring Training…

[Bellhorn04]

Technically they still do have Devers. I still think they work something out in Spring Training…

 

Why do you think that?

 

At this point, if they were to pay Devers what he's asking, it would controvert the principles they're applying everywhere else.

[notin]

Why do you think that?

 

At this point, if they were to pay Devers what he's asking, it would controvert the principles they're applying everywhere else.

 

 

1. They do have to realize they can’t replace his bat for less.

 

2. Like you said, it’s horrible PR to let all 3 walk.

 

3. Those principles you mention might just be forum theories; there may be more to the Betts and Bogaerts situations than just money.

 

 

That said, I do see big differences in the way Devers values himself over the Sox valuations. The only good thing about this, since both are clearly wrong, hopefully there is an acceptable middle ground..

[Tedballgame]

1. They do have to realize they can’t replace his bat for less.

 

2. Like you said, it’s horrible PR to let all 3 walk.

 

3. Those principles you mention might just be forum theories; there may be more to the Betts and Bogaerts situations than just money.

 

 

That said, I do see big differences in the way Devers values himself over the Sox valuations. The only good thing about this, since both are clearly wrong, hopefully there is an acceptable middle ground..

 

I am sure that Devers and his agent don't believe they are wrong in their asking price. They are not going to compromise. They probably figure that the Sox offer is the worst they could do in free agency.

[Bellhorn04]

3. Those principles you mention might just be forum theories; there may be more to the Betts and Bogaerts situations than just money.

 

Like what? There's nothing to indicate that Betts and Bogaerts are anything but model citizens.

 

There's only one word that can justify any of it, and the word is RISK. Henry has been burned by that word on some really bad signings. Unfortunately, his newfound risk aversion may have led to letting go of the exact ones he should have made more effort to keep.

[Bellhorn04]

I am sure that Devers and his agent don't believe they are wrong in their asking price. They are not going to compromise. They probably figure that the Sox offer is the worst they could do in free agency.

 

And he has seen how stupid some front offices are prepared to be.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[Old Red]

Like what? There's nothing to indicate that Betts and Bogaerts are anything but model citizens.

 

There's only one word that can justify any of it, and the word is RISK. Henry has been burned by that word on some really bad signings. Unfortunately, his newfound risk aversion may have led to letting go of the exact ones he should have made more effort to keep.

 

I think Bloom is at that damm third option in that fork in the road again when it comes to Raffy. Sign him, and pay maybe $100M more than last off season, which I’m sure JH doesn’t want to do. Trade him, and feel the raft of Red Sox fans for losing Bogey, and Raffy in the same offseason, or just let Raffy play out his last year in Boston, which I think will happen. Once again Bloom has had 3 years to work on this, and has chosen not to.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Bloom is at that damm third option in that fork in the road again when it comes to Raffy. Sign him, and pay maybe $100M more than last off season, which I’m sure JH doesn’t want to do. Trade him, and feel the raft of Red Sox fans for losing Bogey, and Raffy in the same offseason, or just let Raffy play out his last year in Boston, which I think will happen. Once again Bloom has had 3 years to work on this, and has chosen not to.

 

Personally I lay the blame for Betts, Bogaerts and Devers all at the feet of ownership. You saw what happened with Judge. Hal Steinbrenner stepped in and said we'll pay whatever it takes, quite possibly against the wishes of Cashman. The same thing happened years earlier with A-Rod.

[Old Red]

Personally I lay the blame for Betts, Bogaerts and Devers all at the feet of ownership. You saw what happened with Judge. Hal Steinbrenner stepped in and said we'll pay whatever it takes, quite possibly against the wishes of Cashman. The same thing happened years earlier with A-Rod.

 

I agree on most of the blame, but still Bloom has had 3 years to work on all of this. I like to be a fly on the wall to hear some of the conversations that have happened between Bloom, Kennedy, and JH on all of this.

[Tedballgame]

And he has seen how stupid some front offices are prepared to be.

 

Yes. It only takes one team to be crazy. Can you imagine Raffy in Yankee Stadium with that short porch? I don't want to think about it. After retiring in 2013 I took a trip to Spring Training. I watched Raffy as a 17 year old on the back fields. It would be hard to see him in another uniform but with the Sox new spending limitations and Chaim Bloom at the controls, that is a likely scenario.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. It only takes one team to be crazy. Can you imagine Raffy in Yankee Stadium with that short porch? I don't want to think about it. After retiring in 2013 I took a trip to Spring Training. I watched Raffy as a 17 year old on the back fields. It would be hard to see him in another uniform but with the Sox new spending limitations and Chaim Bloom at the controls, that is a likely scenario.

 

Yes, and so far the Sox have been lucky in one sense, that Betts and Bogaerts have gone to the other league and the other coast and we don't have to watch them play against us very often.

 

Devers in pinstripes is a more gruesome scenario.

[moonslav59]

What I'm certain of is that the Red Sox want to keep that golden goose that's made JH rich(er) they are going to have to have a 'Come to Jesus" moment with the salary issue in MLB. Their fans aren't going to want to listen to them say "we should have done that differently" while finishing in the bottom half of the division much longer. They're going to have to decide if they want to be competitive year after year or if they're willing to become an also-ran. While they will never publicly acknowledge their decision the fans are perceptive... they'll see it.... and act accordingly. The argument can be made that they are already acting accordingly.

 

Or, they could just keep following the path they have been taking for 20 years: spend in cycles- the next one expected any moment, now.

 

I thought the Story signing was a clue that a ramping up was a bout to begin. This winter, we haven't come c lose to even replacing departing contracts.

[notin]

Like what? There's nothing to indicate that Betts and Bogaerts are anything but model citizens.

 

There's only one word that can justify any of it, and the word is RISK. Henry has been burned by that word on some really bad signings. Unfortunately, his newfound risk aversion may have led to letting go of the exact ones he should have made more effort to keep.

 

Character isn’t always the only other issue.

 

All I can say is that, having never been involved in MLB free agency talks, I don’t know everything that is involved. I think that applies to all of us.

 

And there are clearly always other possibilities. Carlos Correa is showing one such possibility in the news daily…

[moonslav59]

The team could hire you as a defense lawyer. You know how to break things down into the contingencies and qualifiers and cast shadows of doubt everywhere.

 

To use a current popular expression, from the "30,000 foot view", it seems strange that a team with the wealth of the Red Sox has failed to retain 3 young stars like Betts, Bogaerts and Devers. You'd think they'd manage to hold onto one of them at least.

 

The writing was on the wall for all to see in 2019. I, too felt the window created by DD would last longer than 3 years, but when the money was shut off for DD and no prospects were traded after the summer of 2018, the die was cast.

 

I'm really not trying to "defend" anything. I don't see it that way, although I can see why it looks that way.

 

I liked what DD did. I like the idea of building up to a window as long as can possibly be created, but realizing some low points will fall between.

 

I was fine with "the plan" knowing full well there would be consequences, so I don't feel I can now criticize those choices made that I agreed with, at the time.

 

Could we have done better during this obvious rebuild? Sure, if we had a better guess rate on low and moderate signings and trades, but again, I'm not sure why it is expected any GM can strike gold under the multifaceted dire circumstances handed him.

 

I don't blame Bloom for doing what they made him do and do what seems like a very good job building up the farm and 40 man roster depth in just 3 short years.

 

I don't blame JH as much as many here do. Sure, I know he can spend more and think he should, but almost every fan of nearly every team feels the same way, and I don't buy into any notion that we are entitled to it, just because we pay more for ticket prices, or because JH has more money than this or that GM. Of course, it makes sense he could and should, but I think nearly every owner of every successful business should spend more on his employees. Focusing only on this one business- the Red Sox- reeks of exceptionalism from the fanbase. Sorry, I'm not buying into it on those terms.

 

I think all owners should spend more, and that would not really help us be any better.

 

I happen to still have a few shreds of optimism on the 2023 team. I hate seeing Bogey go, but we bounced back from Lester and a bit after Betts (2021,) and I like the moves we've made this winter- one by one. I'd have done things differently, but what else is new?

 

I have a ton of optimism over our extended future- something I have not felt since the Ben years, and to me that is the way to try and become a consistently winning team. For all the money being thrown around by the Mets, Padres, Phillies, Yanks and maybe a couple more teams, I'm, not seeing many rings. I'm seeing rings from teams that- new the value of cycling through bad times to get to great times while building, maintain and valuing a strong and deep farm and by deep, I mean from rookie ball to AAA, so the flow of helpful prospects is set up to be as close to never-ending as possible.

 

Let's see how they can do that while getting low draft picks for 5-6 years in a row, but that is the model I want us to follow- not Cohen's and the Mets' model.

[notin]

I am sure that Devers and his agent don't believe they are wrong in their asking price. They are not going to compromise. They probably figure that the Sox offer is the worst they could do in free agency.

 

If they’re not wrong in their asking price, they’re not negotiating. Of course they inflated it. That’s what agents do…

[moonslav59]

The best Christmas present JH could give the Red Sox Nation right now would be to sell the team to someone who wants to play ball. JH usefulness has come, and gone. Thanks for the memories (4) championships, but what have you done for me since 2018? Losing 3 homegrown future HOF is unacceptable. Lumps of coal to the season ticket holders on the way out. What a way to go.

 

100% disagree.

 

Merry Christmas.

[moonslav59]

Why do you think that?

 

At this point, if they were to pay Devers what he's asking, it would controvert the principles they're applying everywhere else.

 

They changed their philosophy on signing 30+ year old pitchers to long term deals after the Lester fiasco.

 

I'm not as hopeful as I once was, but they have not spent the money they were prepared to spend on Bogey, and they must be feeling the rumblings from Sox Nation like never before.

 

All I can say is they better trade him, if the don't sign him, and hopefully they do better than the Betts/Price deal.

[notin]

I think Bloom is at that damm third option in that fork in the road again when it comes to Raffy. Sign him, and pay maybe $100M more than last off season, which I’m sure JH doesn’t want to do. Trade him, and feel the raft of Red Sox fans for losing Bogey, and Raffy in the same offseason, or just let Raffy play out his last year in Boston, which I think will happen. Once again Bloom has had 3 years to work on this, and has chosen not to.

 

Once again Old Red takes the Insider Stance…

[Bellhorn04]

Character isn’t always the only other issue.

 

All I can say is that, having never been involved in MLB free agency talks, I don’t know everything that is involved. I think that applies to all of us.

 

And there are clearly always other possibilities. Carlos Correa is showing one such possibility in the news daily…

 

Correa has an old injury that's causing concerns. Kind of a specific issue, isn't it?

[Bellhorn04]

They changed their philosophy on signing 30+ year old pitchers to long term deals after the Lester fiasco.

 

I'm not as hopeful as I once was, but they have not spent the money they were prepared to spend on Bogey, and they must be feeling the rumblings from Sox Nation like never before.

 

All I can say is they better trade him, if the don't sign him, and hopefully they do better than the Betts/Price deal.

 

Trading Devers before the season would really take balls.

[notin]

Like what? There's nothing to indicate that Betts and Bogaerts are anything but model citizens.

 

There's only one word that can justify any of it, and the word is RISK. Henry has been burned by that word on some really bad signings. Unfortunately, his newfound risk aversion may have led to letting go of the exact ones he should have made more effort to keep.

 

 

Risk makes no sense if the reported $150mill-ish offers to Bogaerts would have worked. I mean, why think that Bogaerts less risky than Yoshida?

Edited December 25, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

Personally I lay the blame for Betts, Bogaerts and Devers all at the feet of ownership. You saw what happened with Judge. Hal Steinbrenner stepped in and said we'll pay whatever it takes, quite possibly against the wishes of Cashman. The same thing happened years earlier with A-Rod.

 

Does anyone really think JH told Bloom, "Pay these guys whatever it takes to get them to sign," and Bloom chose not to do it, and then, here's the clincher, went on to decide on his own, that he wouldn't even spend that money earmarked for Betts and Bogey on other players?

 

There is a chance Bloom took the side of not signing them and was a reason JH decided not to sign them, but only if the idea was that he felt he could spend the money in better ways. The money was not spent elsewhere. We lost the contracts of Betts, Porcello, half-Price and other lesser ones and barely replaced half of that money in 2020. It took us all the way up to the Story signing in March of 2022 to get back to where we were in 2019, and that's not even figuring for inflation, particularly in player contract inflation.

 

Anyway you look at it, it comes down to how JH decided to spend his money and the side effects of the "going for it now" philosophy during the DD window

[Bellhorn04]

Risk makes no sense if the reported $150mill-ish offers to Bogaerts would have worked. I mean, Worley that makes Bogaerts less risky than Yoshida?

 

A very good question.