Xander Bogaerts has signed with San Diego Padres

[moonslav59]

Not quite. There are 17 teams that make below 300 Million in revenues. Mind you they could certainly still spend quite a bit but not like what Cohen is doing. In the Sox case they have an advantage

 

They could all afford one meg deal, at least, and still "make money."

 

We could spend $50M more a year, but what if every team spent $30-60M more, at the same time?

[redsoxrules]

They could all afford one meg deal, at least, and still "make money."

 

We could spend $50M more a year, but what if every team spent $30-60M more, at the same time?

 

They would still have an advantage overall.

The problem with the Sox they always seem to have a contract that's s*** which is eating their payroll for nothing. Currently that's Chris Sale.

[moonslav59]

They would still have an advantage overall.

The problem with the Sox they always seem to have a contract that's s*** which is eating their payroll for nothing. Currently that's Chris Sale.

 

Agreed, and maybe that is a major reason why they have set some sort of formula that places value on everyone, but rarely matched market value, unless it's a unique circumstance (Yoshida's unknown market value and Story's late winter price fall.)

 

It does not seem like they want to adjust "or fix" that formula upwards. Maybe they were willing to or actually did, but the market value gap was still to wide for signing tier one FAs. To be honest, the salaries given out, recently have been nothing short of absurd. I don't blame anyone for shifting focus to second tier FAs or even the best of tier 3, but we missed the boat on all but Jansen, Martin, Turner and maybe Joely.

 

I'm not sure who sets up the value formula. My guess is it was not one guy. It's something the Sox have done for years, and they have let many stars leave- most were aged or had injury issues, but some real good ones were shown the door for various reasons, like tag-ons for salary dumps (AGon & Beckett with CC/ Betts with Price- to a lesser extent) and others for unique situations like Manny & Lackey. It's not just with homegrown players like Lester, Ellsbury, Betts, Beni, JBJ and now Bogey, it was also with Pedro, Damon, Beltre, AGon, Price and now Nate & JD. We've set a value and don't budge to 2 decades and maybe longer (before JH.)

 

The idea or "system," in itself, is not necessarily a losing strategy. We have 4 rings under this plan, and a team like the Astros seems to have perfected the idea. The Astros seem to have a formula that pays more than we do, but mostly shorter term deals- like Verlander. They also had and still have a solid farm that provided seamless high level young players to slide into the roles vacated by departing mega stars like Springer and Correa, but also many key role players. This winter, they just lost the Cy Young winner, and not a single tear has been shed by the fanbase. They are just as excited about their team's chances now as last winter and 4-5 before that.

 

It all starts with the farm, and I am happy this new management group has focused on building that up. I'm disappointed in the failure of most of the prospects we traded for not stepping up. I realize many were never expected to do great, but with the sheer volume of prospects acquired via trade, you'd expect more to at least have a role on the big club by now. Granted, the desire to "win now" as we built the farm hampered the returns, as many trades for prospects also involved taking on a vet, like Cordero w Wink & Co, Pivetta w Seabold, JBJ w Binelas & Hamilton, Ottavino w German, Verdugo w Downs & Wong. It was never really a tear-down & rebuild plan, and that slowed the growth of the farm. The best thing that happened to the farm was the covid year of 2020 and seeing Mayer fall into our lap, and the rule 5 Whitlock pick.

 

I'm not sure our farm is near what the Astros was, and remember, they tanked a few years to get it there, but the pending influx or prospects is at a level not seen since DD had so many to trade away due to Ben's near total devotion to building up the farm and trading away very few prospects. Maybe I was overly optimistic thinking we had reached the point where more of a balance could be reached between use of the farm and the hear and now, but obviously I was wrong, unless some blockbuster trade happens in the next 2-3 months.

 

Part of me is excited about the longer term future, but a big part of me is very disappointed in where the big club is, now. There is still time to repair some gaping holes- like SP & SS, but the FA options are all but gone, and the reluctance to trade top prospects seems still in place, and I'm not sure I disagree with that later strategy, considering our low hopes for 2023.

[mvp 78]

I'm disappointed in the failure of most of the prospects we traded for not stepping up.

 

Is that the prospect's fault or someone else's?

[Old Red]

Is that the prospect's fault or someone else's?

 

I taking a wild guess here that it might just possibly be the evaluator.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The most worrisome aspect of trading Devers is that Bloom will be making the deal.

 

Maybe an owner will refuse to pay market prices for free agents or to homegrown stars, but trades are all on the front office.

 

Bloom's record in Boston trade returns is just brutal, and that's even including his one big win -- the time he swapped two relievers for two future starting pitchers who are serviceable but back-end-of-rotation talent.

 

If someone really wants to overpay for Raffy, great. If not, letting him walk and getting a second-round draft pick may be the best we can do (especially considering where the Sox should be picking, if that round is based on standings).

[moonslav59]

Is that the prospect's fault or someone else's?

 

Of course the prospects are the ones who have not stepped up, so far, but it was Bloom & Co. who decided these prospects were better than others that were offered or may have been available.

 

Take the JBJ trade.. It sucked from day one, but many felt the only redeeming value would come down to the two prospects doing better than their rankings suggested they might do. The jury is still out, but I've all but lost hope on both of them to do anything meaningful.

[moonslav59]

The most worrisome aspect of trading Devers is that Bloom will be making the deal.

 

Maybe an owner will refuse to pay market prices for free agents or to homegrown stars, but trades are all on the front office.

 

Bloom's record in Boston trade returns is just brutal, and that's even including his one big win -- the time he swapped two relievers for two future starting pitchers who are serviceable but back-end-of-rotation talent.

 

If someone really wants to overpay for Raffy, great. If not, letting him walk and getting a second-round draft pick may be the best we can do (especially considering where the Sox should be picking, if that round is based on standings).

 

The other trade that might work was the one Bloom traded nothing away for: Ottavino & German for basically nothing.

 

The Diekman for McGuire deal looks good, even as just a salary dump, but the dumpee was Bloom's own signee.

 

I'd like to say I have some hopes for Breau & E Valdez (for 2 months of Vaz,) but they seem like Hamilton/Binelas types.

 

Certainly, the failure of Downs not progressing makes that Betts and salary dump of Price trade underwhelming, and the Beni trade seems to be coming down to Wink & de la Rosa. The Renfroe trade was the worst, but all the others were fringe players, and getting Pivetta & Seabold hardly makes up much ground on the losses from the other trades. The Price aspect of the Betts trade makes that one harder to accurately evaluate, but certainly more was expected from the return. 5 years of Dugo has real value, and I suppose Wong may still surprise, but no. It can't be viewed as even a break even deal, IMO, despite dumping half-Price.

 

I worry about the return we'd get for Devers, too. The worry is well-founded.

[mvp 78]

Of course the prospects are the ones who have not stepped up, so far, but it was Bloom & Co. who decided these prospects were better than others that were offered or may have been available.

 

Take the JBJ trade.. It sucked from day one, but many felt the only redeeming value would come down to the two prospects doing better than their rankings suggested they might do. The jury is still out, but I've all but lost hope on both of them to do anything meaningful.

 

It was just weird how you worded it. Saying "the prospects didn't step up" kinda puts the blame on them rather than scouting and BOH/Bloom.

[Old Red]

It was just weird how you worded it. Saying "the prospects didn't step up" kinda puts the blame on them rather than scouting and BOH/Bloom.

 

And that’s why I say prospects are just suspects until they produce in a Red Sox uniform, or are traded for someone who does.

[mvp 78]

The most worrisome aspect of trading Devers is that Bloom will be making the deal.

 

Maybe an owner will refuse to pay market prices for free agents or to homegrown stars, but trades are all on the front office.

 

Bloom's record in Boston trade returns is just brutal, and that's even including his one big win -- the time he swapped two relievers for two future starting pitchers who are serviceable but back-end-of-rotation talent.

 

If someone really wants to overpay for Raffy, great. If not, letting him walk and getting a second-round draft pick may be the best we can do (especially considering where the Sox should be picking, if that round is based on standings).

 

While Bloom has done a better job of selecting draft picks, I think you need to get players that are closer to providing actual help to the MLB team.

 

Per BTV, Raffy has as much trade value as Roman Anthony, Kutter Coffey, Mikey Romero, Blaze Jordan, Nick Yorke and Elmer Rodriguez Cruz. That's 2 #1's, 2 #2's, 1 #3 and, 1 #4. Waiting for just one comp pick seems like a waste IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The other trade that might work was the one Bloom traded nothing away for: Ottavino & German for basically nothing.

 

The Diekman for McGuire deal looks good, even as just a salary dump, but the dumpee was Bloom's own signee.

 

I'd like to say I have some hopes for Breau & E Valdez (for 2 months of Vaz,) but they seem like Hamilton/Binelas types.

 

Certainly, the failure of Downs not progressing makes that Betts and salary dump of Price trade underwhelming, and the Beni trade seems to be coming down to Wink & de la Rosa. The Renfroe trade was the worst, but all the others were fringe players, and getting Pivetta & Seabold hardly makes up much ground on the losses from the other trades. The Price aspect of the Betts trade makes that one harder to accurately evaluate, but certainly more was expected from the return. 5 years of Dugo has real value, and I suppose Wong may still surprise, but no. It can't be viewed as even a break even deal, IMO, despite dumping half-Price.

 

I worry about the return we'd get for Devers, too. The worry is well-founded.

 

I haven't forgotten these deals, and admit Bloom has won a few slight victories. Or Whitlock via Rule 5 (hope he recovers and continues to progress, though nothing is guaranteed).

 

What's missing is really hitting on that gem of a trade that some people predicted was Bloom's specialty, through his intense scrutiny and knowledge of the various levels of the minors. I know, it takes time, but MLB-ready acquisitions become impact starting pitchers or regulars in batting orders every year.

 

Some luck has to be involved, as well; not everyone swings a Yordan-for-Josh Fields or signs a Big Papi, after someone else cuts him right when he's about to enter his prime.

[moonslav59]

It was just weird how you worded it. Saying "the prospects didn't step up" kinda puts the blame on them rather than scouting and BOH/Bloom.

 

Yes, that was unintentionally implied with that wording. I kinda had Downs on my mind, and I do think he had the skillset many GMs would have wanted. Maybe 2020 hurt him more than others, but he sucked. He was the "jewel" of all the prospects Bloom acquired by ranking.

 

Whitlock and others passed him quickly.

[moonslav59]

I haven't forgotten these deals, and admit Bloom has won a few slight victories. Or Whitlock via Rule 5 (hope he recovers and continues to progress, though nothing is guaranteed).

 

What's missing is really hitting on that gem of a trade that some people predicted was Bloom's specialty, through his intense scrutiny and knowledge of the various levels of the minors. I know, it takes time, but MLB-ready acquisitions become impact starting pitchers or regulars in batting orders every year.

 

Some luck has to be involved, as well; not everyone swings a Yordan-for-Josh Fields or signs a Big Papi, after someone else cuts him right when he's about to enter his prime.

 

Agreed, and I even mentioned the whole "finding gems in the rough" often, since we hired Bloom- thinking this was his specialty. Expecting great things by trading guys like Moreland, Pillar, Workman & Hembree might not have been realistic, and seeing as how often Renfroe has moved on to a new team makes his value seem suspect, but the Betts and Beni trades should have produced more. I'm not going to say the totality of Bloom's tardes have been a net plus, despite the Price aspect of the Betts trade and the suspected caveat that nearly every trade for a prospect also include a coupled-vet. Is that Bloom's choice or a mandate to balance the hear and now with the future that ends up helping neither?

[Old Red]

While Bloom has done a better job of selecting draft picks, I think you need to get players that are closer to providing actual help to the MLB team.

 

Per BTV, Raffy has as much trade value as Roman Anthony, Kutter Coffey, Mikey Romero, Blaze Jordan, Nick Yorke and Elmer Rodriguez Cruz. That's 2 #1's, 2 #2's, 1 #3 and, 1 #4. Waiting for just one comp pick seems like a waste IMO.

I still believe the Red Sox will ride out this season with Raffy, and deal with him, and what comes with it next offseason, and hope somehow he’ll help the team stay competitive, or better, and spread out the anger from Bogey to him, and not all at once next year.

[mvp 78]

Yes, that was unintentionally implied with that wording. I kinda had Downs on my mind, and I do think he had the skillset many GMs would have wanted. Maybe 2020 hurt him more than others, but he sucked. He was the "jewel" of all the prospects Bloom acquired by ranking.

 

Whitlock and others passed him quickly.

 

Downs was kind of a shocker looking back on it. He was the 86th ranked prospect at the time of the trade. His bat was projected to play and the thought was he'd at least be moved off SS to 2B as his glove wasn't ideal. He put a lot of work in at SS and became good enough to be an MLB regular there. HOWEVER, his bat just cratered after coming back from the missed 2020 season and he never put it back together. He was always able to strike the ball very hard, but he lost all his confidence and was just never able to make consistent contact in the zone. The exact opposite happened to Downs that most scouts projected. His bat died on the vine.

[mvp 78]

I still believe the Red Sox will ride out this season with Raffy, and deal with him, and what comes with it next offseason, and hope somehow he’ll help the team stay competitive, or better, and spread out the anger from Bogey to him, and not all at once next year.

 

That's the worst option. If they go into the season with Raffy at 3b and no new deal, the fans will have "re-sign Raffy" signs at every game.

[notin]

That's the worst option. If they go into the season with Raffy at 3b and no new deal, the fans will have "re-sign Raffy" signs at every game.

 

So you’re saying there will be fans?

 

What exactly is the deterrent here for the Sox?

[mvp 78]

So you’re saying there will be fans?

 

What exactly is the deterrent here for the Sox?

 

John Henry could ban Kimmi on TalkSox and we'd still keep posting anyway.

[Old Red]

That's the worst option. If they go into the season with Raffy at 3b and no new deal, the fans will have "re-sign Raffy" signs at every game.

 

I agree it’s worst for the long run, but I can’t see them getting rid of Bogey, and Raffy at the same time.

[mvp 78]

I agree it’s worst for the long run, but I can’t see them getting rid of Bogey, and Raffy at the same time.

 

And that's why we rolled into 2021 with Vaz and Bogey and JD and Eovaldi and left with (so far) a last place finish, a 4th round comp pick, Abreu and Valdez. You have to cash in the assets when you have them. Letting them leave for nothing makes zero sense. It's a move that you'd rip Bloom for later on.

[StephenCurry30]

Prospects have an absurdly high bust rate. From anything to sexual assaulting to just being bad at baseball, you never know what a teenager or early 20s kid will do. That’s why when you have a known commodity in Bogaerts and devers you keep them and pay them, if you won’t, multiple other franchises do, while we’re stuck rooting for a catcher who masturbates in public

[Old Red]

And that's why we rolled into 2021 with Vaz and Bogey and JD and Eovaldi and left with (so far) a last place finish, a 4th round comp pick, Abreu and Valdez. You have to cash in the assets when you have them. Letting them leave for nothing makes zero sense. It's a move that you'd rip Bloom for later on.

 

I agree, and yes I’ll rip Bloom, but I just don’t believe they will do it. I’ve been saying for a year that Bloom has had 3 years to work on all this stuff, and I’ve been consistent that I would have traded Raffy last offseason if they wasn’t going to sign him.

[StephenCurry30]

That's the worst option. If they go into the season with Raffy at 3b and no new deal, the fans will have "re-sign Raffy" signs at every game.

 

At this point, I have so little faith in dumb ass to re-sign devers, he might as well trade him.. then again it’s not like this guy could evaluate prospects. He likely would’ve been one of Dahmers victims in the 80s even if Dahmer told him his plans, that’s how dumb bloom is

[Old Red]

Prospects have an absurdly high bust rate. From anything to sexual assaulting to just being bad at baseball, you never know what a teenager or early 20s kid will do. That’s why when you have a known commodity in Bogaerts and devers you keep them and pay them, if you won’t, multiple other franchises do, while we’re stuck rooting for a catcher who masturbates in public

Except for the catcher well said. Not only were Bogey, and Raffy proven, but proven in Boston, and that’s not an easy task.

[Bellhorn04]

Prospects have an absurdly high bust rate. From anything to sexual assaulting to just being bad at baseball, you never know what a teenager or early 20s kid will do. That’s why when you have a known commodity in Bogaerts and devers you keep them and pay them, if you won’t, multiple other franchises do, while we’re stuck rooting for a catcher who masturbates in public

 

Just the one time!

[Old Red]

Just the one time!

 

At least just the only time he was caught.

[mvp 78]

At this point, I have so little faith in dumb ass to re-sign devers, he might as well trade him.. then again it’s not like this guy could evaluate prospects. He likely would’ve been one of Dahmers victims in the 80s even if Dahmer told him his plans, that’s how dumb bloom is

 

In terms of MLB draft, he's done a very good job so far. Internationally, Bleis was a good get.

[moonslav59]

Downs was kind of a shocker looking back on it. He was the 86th ranked prospect at the time of the trade. His bat was projected to play and the thought was he'd at least be moved off SS to 2B as his glove wasn't ideal. He put a lot of work in at SS and became good enough to be an MLB regular there. HOWEVER, his bat just cratered after coming back from the missed 2020 season and he never put it back together. He was always able to strike the ball very hard, but he lost all his confidence and was just never able to make consistent contact in the zone. The exact opposite happened to Downs that most scouts projected. His bat died on the vine.

 

Ultimately, right or wrong, even if every GM would have loved to have Downs, but we got him, it falls on the GM for choosing a failure.

[Jasonbay44]

Ultimately, right or wrong, even if every GM would have loved to have Downs, but we got him, it falls on the GM for choosing a failure.

 

I agree with this, and I did actually like Downs, but still hated the Mookie trade. Most people hated it at the time, but when the “top prospect” in the deal busts, it makes it way worse. I think David Price somehow gave the Dodgers more value as a relief pitcher than Downs gave Boston, which is absurd.