A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Agreed.

 

Lopez is the guy you trade for when you team looks like it does in 2016/2017.

 

You have to get players when they’re available. And “worst to first” isn’t even uncommon anymore…

[Old Red]

The Cots number assumes that Devers's 2023 AAV is 30.1 million. We'll have to wait to find out if that's correct, or if it's 17.5 million. Pretty important difference.

 

$30.09M is what I read, which pushes the CBT to $224M.

[moonslav59]

$30.09M is what I read, which pushes the CBT to $224M.

 

Yes, cots has it at $30.1M on the tax budget and still has is $15M under the line.

[moonslav59]

I do worry about Andrus on D. Is he really an upgrade on defense? He has mixed metrics. We can guess Bogey's D without the shift will get worse, but what about Andrus?

 

DRS

-9 2019

-3 2020

-10 2021

-4 2022

 

UZR/150

+2.2 2019

-11.5 2020 (short)

-0.5 2021

+4.7 2022

 

Bogey

-9

-4

-5

+5

 

+0.8

+0.2

+2.3

+4.7

[notin]

I do worry about Andrus on D. Is he really an upgrade on defense? He has mixed metrics. We can guess Bogey's D without the shift will get worse, but what about Andrus?

 

DRS

-9 2019

-3 2020

-10 2021

-4 2022

 

UZR/150

+2.2 2019

-11.5 2020 (short)

-0.5 2021

+4.7 2022

 

Bogey

-9

-4

-5

+5

 

+0.8

+0.2

+2.3

+4.7

 

Andrus does well in Outs Above Average, but Bloom appears to prefer Defensive Runs Saved…

[Bellhorn04]

I do worry about Andrus on D. Is he really an upgrade on defense? He has mixed metrics. We can guess Bogey's D without the shift will get worse, but what about Andrus?

 

DRS

-9 2019

-3 2020

-10 2021

-4 2022

 

UZR/150

+2.2 2019

-11.5 2020 (short)

-0.5 2021

+4.7 2022

 

Bogey

-9

-4

-5

+5

 

+0.8

+0.2

+2.3

+4.7

 

Those defensive numbers get so confusing.

 

Andrus had an fWAR of 3.5 in 2022. That's the first number I look at.

[notin]

Those defensive numbers get so confusing.

 

Andrus had an fWAR of 3.5 in 2022. That's the first number I look at.

 

Andrus is coming off a good year. He’s reportedly a terrific teammate that Texas best writers often referred to as having a million dollar smile. He’s coming off a 3.5 fWAR season. There are several teams (Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins, Braves, Angels, Reds, Cardinals) that could use an upgrade at SS. And he’s a shortstop, which always interests the Padres.

 

Why is this guy still available?

[moonslav59]

Andrus is coming off a good year. He’s reportedly a terrific teammate that Texas best writers often referred to as having a million dollar smile. He’s coming off a 3.5 fWAR season. There are several teams (Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins, Braves, Angels, Reds, Cardinals) that could use an upgrade at SS. And he’s a shortstop, which always interests the Padres.

 

Why is this guy still available?

 

Perhaps a team like the Red Sox are telling him not to sign, yet, because they are working on a trade, and if it doesn't come through, they will bid on him.

 

Do they say things like this to agents?

 

Would Andrus take $13M/1 from the Sox over $20M/2 elsewhere? Or, $27M/3?

[moonslav59]

Those defensive numbers get so confusing.

 

Andrus had an fWAR of 3.5 in 2022. That's the first number I look at.

 

I think the non shift numbers are being looked at, closely, but there is some gray area, because SSs will still be playing right at the line behind 2B and not really at their normal SS spot.

[moonslav59]

Andrus is coming off a good year. He’s reportedly a terrific teammate that Texas best writers often referred to as having a million dollar smile. He’s coming off a 3.5 fWAR season. There are several teams (Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins, Braves, Angels, Reds, Cardinals) that could use an upgrade at SS. And he’s a shortstop, which always interests the Padres.

 

Why is this guy still available?

 

Maybe waiting for the Correa shoe to drop?

 

Looks like it just did with a stomp on the Mets.

[Oscars]

Trevor Story had a brace procedure on his elbow yesterday

[Jasonbay44]

Trevor Story had a brace procedure on his elbow yesterday

 

Passan:

Trevor Story underwent UCL surgery with an internal brace on his right elbow -- in other words, modified Tommy John surgery with a quicker return date.

 

Generally speaking, players miss four to six months following the surgery.

 

 

So he is going to miss regular season time it sounds like…

[iortiz]

We are even more done next season.

[redsoxrules]

Why the f*** wasn't this done a few months ago?

[redsoxrules]

I'm so glad they decided to get story to ship bogey out. Great move again

[Jasonbay44]

 

 

I’m sure many of us are asking this same question…

[Bellhorn04]

That should put to rest any ideas about him going back to shortstop...

[notin]

That should put to rest any ideas about him going back to shortstop...

 

At least until August.

 

So now we need two middle infielders…

[dgalehouse]

Are we looking at five more years of Story calling in sick ?

[jacksonianmarch]

They’re gonna be sucktastic this year. Is there a big prospect for 2024 draft they’re gunning for?

[moonslav59]

Is it too late to offer Correa $201M?

 

[oldtimer]

Is it too late to offer Correa $201M?

 

Do we want another player for relatively big bucks who has flunked physicals from 2 teams already. I wouldn't pull the trigger on that contract. I rather be call ineffective than stupid.

[moonslav59]

Do we want another player for relatively big bucks who has flunked physicals from 2 teams already. I wouldn't pull the trigger on that contract. I rather be call ineffective than stupid.

 

Green = Sarcasm.

[moonslav59]

So, now we need:

 

SS

 

2B

 

SP or RP

 

Maybe an upgrade at C and RF

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The glass is half-full in the bullpen, with a new old veteran closer and a set-up man who doesn't walk batters. If only we could count on the good Whitlock or Houck to be part of it...

 

The glass is half-empty in the rotation, with two new old veteran starters, plus the Flying Stickman from the 20teens, along with Bello and Pivetta. If only we could count on Whitlock or Houck to be good parts of it...

 

The line-up? The only known commodities on the field are Devers and Verdugo. Casas could be good, Kike could be healed, and Yoshida could be a big leaguer. There's weakness up the middle: catcher, where Chaim wants an upgrade; second and short, where there aren't nobodies -- but no bodies; even center, depending on whether Kike moves to the infield. Turner can still hit enough to DH, but the holes are dire... right now: half-empty.

 

This thread isn't called A Pessimistic View of '23, but no one can feel confident today these Red Sox will win more than they lose.

[mvp 78]

So, now we need:

 

SS

 

2B

 

SP or RP

 

Maybe an upgrade at C and RF

 

Best I can do is a AAAA 1B/DH and some DFA'd relievers. Maybe there's a Yu Chang hanging around somewhere?

[mvp 78]

The glass is half-full in the bullpen, with a new old veteran closer and a set-up man who doesn't walk batters. If only we could count on the good Whitlock or Houck to be part of it...

 

The glass is half-empty in the rotation, with two new old veteran starters, plus the Flying Stickman from the 20teens, along with Bello and Pivetta. If only we could count on Whitlock or Houck to be good parts of it...

 

The line-up? The only known commodities on the field are Devers and Verdugo. Casas could be good, Kike could be healed, and Yoshida could be a big leaguer. There's weakness up the middle: catcher, where Chaim wants an upgrade; second and short, where there aren't nobodies -- but no bodies; even center, depending on whether Kike moves to the infield. Turner can still hit enough to DH, but the holes are dire... right now: half-empty.

 

This thread isn't called A Pessimistic View of '23, but no one can feel confident today these Red Sox will win more than they lose.

 

The bullpen is good.

 

The lineup is interesting, but missing another power bat.

 

The defense now has no RFer for Fenway, an oft injured 2B and no SS. It's a mess defensively.

 

The starting rotation is a big question mark as it has a high ceiling, but a very low floor.

[Hugh2]

The bullpen is good.

 

The lineup is interesting, but missing another power bat.

 

The defense now has no RFer for Fenway, an oft injured 2B and no SS. It's a mess defensively.

 

The starting rotation is a big question mark as it has a high ceiling, but a very low floor.

 

This team could win anywhere between 0-162 games next year.

[mvp 78]

This team could win anywhere between 0-162 games next year.

 

They'll win at least 60 games, but no more than 95.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Tom Werner says he believes Chaim Bloom has a clear plan to help the Red Sox win another World Series.