A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Tedballgame]

I support Bloom but I have been critical of the fact that Sox went over the tax line by mere $5M.

 

Our 73rd and 74th picks turned into 131st and 132nd picks.

 

Looking back at the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 MLB draft, I have not heard of any of the players taken at #73, 74, 131 or 132. MLB draft is a crap shoot. Half of first rounders never see the majors.

[Nick]

Looking back at the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 MLB draft, I have not heard of any of the players taken at #73, 74, 131 or 132. MLB draft is a crap shoot. Half of first rounders never see the majors.

 

Good to know. So we can assume it may not br relevant as I assumed. But the overall impact of becoming a first time offender will cost us financially. But that may not mean as much if u go consistently over the limit by few dollars.

[notin]

Looking back at the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 MLB draft, I have not heard of any of the players taken at #73, 74, 131 or 132. MLB draft is a crap shoot. Half of first rounders never see the majors.

 

Not sure if you’re just!guessing or estimating, but to back up your claim about just rounders, SI’s Tom Verducci did a study and at the time z(which was several years ago), he found 30% of all first rounder never play a single inning of MLB. So even if it’s not exactly 50%. (still?), your point about the relevance of many first rounders is spot on…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox need a shortstop. Some say Jose Iglesias isn't the shortstop he once was... the same has been said about Story. Can Iglesias fill the position until Ceddanne or Mayer (or Romero or Paulino or Ravelo) make it? We do know Iglesias was great at second, at the plate, and in Alex Cora's dugout a year-and-a-half ago.

 

Will the price be too high, instead, to trade for Rojas and/or a pitcher from Miami?

[Bellhorn04]

It's the lost bonus slot money that matters more.

 

How much does that actually matter in real world terms - does it mean we'll have picks we can't sign?

[notin]

Red Sox need a shortstop. Some say Jose Iglesias isn't the shortstop he once was... the same has been said about Story. Can Iglesias fill the position until Ceddanne or Mayer (or Romero or Paulino or Ravelo) make it? We do know Iglesias was great at second, at the plate, and in Alex Cora's dugout a year-and-a-half ago.

 

Will the price be too high, instead, to trade for Rojas and/or a pitcher from Miami?

 

 

I prefer Andrus over Iglesias, but Jose is a good plan B.

 

I’m hoping getting Rojas down cost much more than just taking on Jarren Duran…

[notin]

Red Sox need a shortstop. Some say Jose Iglesias isn't the shortstop he once was... the same has been said about Story. Can Iglesias fill the position until Ceddanne or Mayer (or Romero or Paulino or Ravelo) make it? We do know Iglesias was great at second, at the plate, and in Alex Cora's dugout a year-and-a-half ago.

 

Will the price be too high, instead, to trade for Rojas and/or a pitcher from Miami?

 

Although probably worth noting - Carlos Correa is talking to teams again. Hey if you can draw up a contract without using the word “leg”, his price comes way down…

[Bellhorn04]

Although probably worth noting - Carlos Correa is talking to teams again. Hey if you can draw up a contract without using the word “leg”, his price comes way down…

 

Boras really has his work cut out there...

[mvp 78]

Why?

 

Bench bat replacement for Dalbec I guess? I'd pass on Guriel.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I prefer Andrus over Iglesias, but Jose is a good plan B.

 

I’m hoping getting Rojas down cost much more than just taking on Jarren Duran…

 

I get the feeling both Andrus and Iglesias want multi-years; who wouldn't.

 

I'm also hoping the Gurriel rumors won't mean Bloom is seriously considering trading Casas for a Marlin not named Alcantara...

[mvp 78]

Looking back at the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 MLB draft, I have not heard of any of the players taken at #73, 74, 131 or 132. MLB draft is a crap shoot. Half of first rounders never see the majors.

 

72 in 2018 was Josiah Gray

73 in 2016 was Jose Miranda played 125 games for the Twins as a rookie last season

74 in 2016 was Akil Baddoo has played 197 games for the Tigers the past two seasons for the Tigers after being taken in the Rule 5 draft

 

The bigger issue is the loss in $$$ to spend in the MLB Draft pool based on pick slot.

[Bellhorn04]

72 in 2018 was Josiah Gray

73 in 2016 was Jose Miranda played 125 games for the Twins as a rookie last season

74 in 2016 was Akil Baddoo has played 197 games for the Tigers the past two seasons for the Tigers after being taken in the Rule 5 draft

 

The bigger issue is the loss in $$$ to spend in the MLB Draft pool based on pick slot.

 

What's the potential impact of a loss of $1 million? An unsigned pick?

[mvp 78]

Red Sox need a shortstop. Some say Jose Iglesias isn't the shortstop he once was... the same has been said about Story. Can Iglesias fill the position until Ceddanne or Mayer (or Romero or Paulino or Ravelo) make it? We do know Iglesias was great at second, at the plate, and in Alex Cora's dugout a year-and-a-half ago.

 

Will the price be too high, instead, to trade for Rojas and/or a pitcher from Miami?

 

Iggy is not a great SS anymore, but he'd be cheap and serviceable. He's also a guy that would probably enjoy playing here again.

[mvp 78]

What's the potential impact of a loss of $1 million? An unsigned pick?

 

With the money, you can reach and grab someone above slot that fell in the draft. Now, it's one less above slot HS guy? Brooks Brannon signed for 700k and a lot of people figured that he'd go to college rather than sign.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Iggy is not a great SS anymore, but he'd be cheap and serviceable. He's also a guy that would probably enjoy playing here again.

 

Underrated points -- Jose already fits in, and made about a third of Andrus' salary last year.

 

But the shorter bases may help a guy like Elvis, the active MLB leader in Caught Stealing.

[mvp 78]

I prefer Andrus over Iglesias, but Jose is a good plan B.

 

I’m hoping getting Rojas down cost much more than just taking on Jarren Duran…

 

Andrus probably wants a multi-year deal. You can probably get Iggy on a MiLB deal with a ST opt out if he doesn't make the MLB team.

[mvp 78]

Underrated points -- Jose already fits in, and made about a third of Andrus' salary last year.

 

But the shorter bases may help a guy like Elvis, the active MLB leader in Caught Stealing.

 

That's just going to incentivize him to get caught more!

[moonslav59]

What's the potential impact of a loss of $1 million? An unsigned pick?

 

Just this past draft, we picked Roman Anthony with the 79th pick- very similar to the comp pick we could have had with getting under the tax line, and we gave him a bonus of about $1.6M over slot. We also paid Brook Brannon about $550 overslot. We were able to do this by paying under slot bonuses to Romero ($600K) and a little more, here and there.

 

It does affect who you draft- perhaps more than the number pick you get, at times.

 

In 2021, we picked up two of our most promising lower round players by paying them over slot:

#136 Nathan Hickey ($600K over)

#316 Kavadas $125K over)

 

In 2020:

#89 Blaze Jordan ($1.1M over)

 

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

With the money, you can reach and grab someone above slot that fell in the draft. Now, it's one less above slot HS guy? Brooks Brannon signed for 700k and a lot of people figured that he'd go to college rather than sign.

 

I like to think of it as playing the lottery. You lost two tickets that gave you a 5% chance of hitting big and got two back in return that give you a 1%. Numbers are obviously not quantified.

[moonslav59]

Iggy is not a great SS anymore, but he'd be cheap and serviceable. He's also a guy that would probably enjoy playing here again.

 

I'd rather we trade for a 1 year bridge SS like Rojas, Mateo, A Rosario or Mondesi.

 

I don't think we'd have to give up much, except for Rosario.

[moonslav59]

We still need to add Turner & Kluber to the 40 man roster. Rumor is we are looking to trade rather than DFA at least 2 guys, and we seemingly look like we will be adding a middle IF'er. So, maybe at minimum, we need to clear 3 slots for Turner, Kluber and a SS (2Bman). A 2 or 3 for 1 deal would solve a lot of roster issues, but I'm not sure many teams are looking to add 2-3 players to their 40 man roster on the level of Brasier, Ort and Taylor/Seabold or even Duran.

 

For example, I'd love to trade Brasier, Ort and Seabold for Rojas, and our roster would be a clean 40, but I seriously doubt MIA takes that. They'd probably want Duran and Seabold or someone like Murphy.

[notin]

We still need to add Turner & Kluber to the 40 man roster. Rumor is we are looking to trade rather than DFA at least 2 guys, and we seemingly look like we will be adding a middle IF'er. So, maybe at minimum, we need to clear 3 slots for Turner, Kluber and a SS (2Bman). A 2 or 3 for 1 deal would solve a lot of roster issues, but I'm not sure many teams are looking to add 2-3 players to their 40 man roster on the level of Brasier, Ort and Taylor/Seabold or even Duran.

 

For example, I'd love to trade Brasier, Ort and Seabold for Rojas, and our roster would be a clean 40, but I seriously doubt MIA takes that. They'd probably want Duran and Seabold or someone like Murphy.

 

 

Miami would not make that deal for the same reason you want to make it - they they would have to DFA someone…

[notin]

Andrus probably wants a multi-year deal. You can probably get Iggy on a MiLB deal with a ST opt out if he doesn't make the MLB team.

 

A two year deal for Andrus wouldn’t be a killer…

[moonslav59]

Miami would not make that deal for the same reason you want to make it - they they would have to DFA someone…

 

They might take Duran straight up- 6 years for 1.

 

They might take Murphy and Dalbec. There were rumors they asked about Dalbec.

[moonslav59]

A two year deal for Andrus wouldn’t be a killer…

 

No, and we are not sure Mayer will be ready in 2024.

[notin]

No, and we are not sure Mayer will be ready in 2024.

 

Or ever.

 

And right now, the shortstops between MLB and Mayer are Niko Goodrum, David Hamilton and Max Ferguson.

 

I doubt the the Sox need to tread so lightly here…

[notin]

They might take Duran straight up- 6 years for 1.

 

They might take Murphy and Dalbec. There were rumors they asked about Dalbec.

 

They’d be insane to turn down 6 years of work-in-progress Duran for one year of 34yo career utility infielder Rojas…

[mvp 78]

Just this past draft, we picked Roman Anthony with the 79th pick- very similar to the comp pick we could have had with getting under the tax line, and we gave him a bonus of about $1.6M over slot. We also paid Brook Brannon about $550 overslot. We were able to do this by paying under slot bonuses to Romero ($600K) and a little more, here and there.

 

It does affect who you draft- perhaps more than the number pick you get, at times.

 

In 2021, we picked up two of our most promising lower round players by paying them over slot:

#136 Nathan Hickey ($600K over)

#316 Kavadas $125K over)

 

In 2020:

#89 Blaze Jordan ($1.1M over)

 

 

 

The Romero money went to Anthony.

[mvp 78]

Or ever.

 

And right now, the shortstops between MLB and Mayer are Niko Goodrum, David Hamilton and Max Ferguson.

 

I doubt the the Sox need to tread so lightly here…

 

Ferguson is not ahead of Mayer on the depth chart though. Hamilton is past the point of being able to fake it at SS. They are actively pushing him towards OF. Koss is ok at SS, but he's not going to be ready for playing time in BOS before Mayer.

 

Honestly, Mayer has a shot to debut around the trade deadline this year. At 19, his OPS in A+ was higher than what Devers' was in A+ at the same age. Devers debuted at the deadline at age 20 the following season. I think Mayer is more likely to be a Super Two call up in 2024, but I'm not going dismiss him getting a rocket attached to him this year. Why else would they be so lax with addressing this need?

[mvp 78]

We still need to add Turner & Kluber to the 40 man roster. Rumor is we are looking to trade rather than DFA at least 2 guys, and we seemingly look like we will be adding a middle IF'er. So, maybe at minimum, we need to clear 3 slots for Turner, Kluber and a SS (2Bman). A 2 or 3 for 1 deal would solve a lot of roster issues, but I'm not sure many teams are looking to add 2-3 players to their 40 man roster on the level of Brasier, Ort and Taylor/Seabold or even Duran.

 

For example, I'd love to trade Brasier, Ort and Seabold for Rojas, and our roster would be a clean 40, but I seriously doubt MIA takes that. They'd probably want Duran and Seabold or someone like Murphy.

 

Sox could do a 2 for 1 deal, but no way would anyone want to do a 3 for 1 and then have to DFA 2 guys for what the Sox are giving up. More likely, the Sox are going to trade Brasier/Ort/Seabold/Dalbec for guys not on the 40 man rosters of other teams a la the Christian Koss deal.

 

Sox probably have 5-6 guys they need to clear off the current 40 man before next season starts.

DHern - DFA

Ort - DFA

Seabold - trade

Dalbec - trade

Duran - trade

Paxton - trade