A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Monarch might be the most appropriate if they're indeed endangered now (because humans are endangering everything).

 

If Duran is a monarch, his career has ophryocystis elektroscirrha. Cut those milkweed stems down people!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All fans are crybabies.

 

And yet, the ones constantly typing the label sometimes read like the biggest ones of all.

 

Fans want their team to win, so they can cheer. When they lose, they boo because they can't. When their team loses a lot -- or even a little, because of what looks like obvious flaws -- fans complain, because they wish it was better. All fans are experts on how to improve their team (some even post ideas daily on webs blown into clouds).

 

However, very few fans aren't disappointed in the present, but secure in the knowledge that in the future, a plan might work... especially if it's supposed to be five years from now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What about the tangibles? Those you won’t find on any analytics sheet.

 

You be clutching at semantics. And......... that clutch is measurable, notin (Red's 12-word post).

[moonslav59]

All fans are crybabies.

 

Indeed, and I have said I am, too about several things.

 

I never said crybaby fans or bad or never bring about good things. That was just some poster overanalyzing and misinterpreting, again.

[moonslav59]

You got your mini fire sale with Vaz, and now we have no #1 C, which hurts the team going forward. That we agree on.

 

I'd rather have McGuire at peanut cost over the next 3 years than Vaz at his salary. It's not even close. Plus, Bloom was able to dump Diekman and his $4M for 2023 to get McGuire.

 

The mini fire sale I spoke of was doing enough to get us under the tax line.

[moonslav59]

First of all, “clutch” is a very subjective term. So it’s not much of a measure. This is not up for debate; it’s been the subject of multiple debates.

 

Second, while certainly a lot less games played, McGuire has had starting jobs. And no catcher is a full time player.

 

Third, for his career, Vazquez has been worth 0.0167 fWAR/game. McGuire has been worth 0.0169 fWAR/game. That’s about as equal as it gets.

 

I don’t care if you don’t like fWAR. It’s objective. Not like “clutch”. And don’t debate that point; it’s been belabored to death…

 

McGuire may very well flop. I'm not convinced he is a good catcher or will even become our FT catcher more than just to start the season. Hell, we may still add a catcher before opening day. I do think the contract Vaz got was more than I would have paid, so I'm glad we got two pretty decent prospects for 2 lost moths of Vaz, and then we traded a Guy I wanted DFA'd for McGuire. To somehow view those turns of events as being a bad thing is laughable.

[moonslav59]

What about the tangibles? Those you won’t find on any analytics sheet.

 

You mean intangibles, or am I digging to deep, again?

[moonslav59]

You be clutching at semantics. And......... that clutch is measurable, notin (Red's 12-word post).

 

Vaz is so clutch, he has an astounding .016 higher OPS Late & Close compared to his overall career OPS of .695.

 

.711 Late & Close (.598 in 2022)

.709 2 outs RISP (.734 in 2022)

.709 High Leverage (.654 in 2022)

.701 RISP

 

.695 career overall (.714 in 2022)

 

I'm going to call these his "untangibles," if it's okay with everyone.

[moonslav59]

And yet, the ones constantly typing the label sometimes read like the biggest ones of all.

 

Fans want their team to win, so they can cheer. When they lose, they boo because they can't. When their team loses a lot -- or even a little, because of what looks like obvious flaws -- fans complain, because they wish it was better. All fans are experts on how to improve their team (some even post ideas daily on webs blown into clouds).

 

However, very few fans aren't disappointed in the present, but secure in the knowledge that in the future, a plan might work... especially if it's supposed to be five years from now.

 

If you are talking about me, the 5 year plan is up in 2024. (2020 to 2024)

 

I had hopes we could be somewhat competitive, along the way, and 2021 probably gave me false hopes, but I do see our longer term chances as being way better than our longer term chances were in 2019 or 2020.

 

I'm no expert on what is the best way to improve a team, but I think starting with a solid and deep farm should help.

 

I'm not expert on judging how strong our farm is, but it appears to be much better than it looked in 2019 and 2020.

 

I'm happy to see we might see 12-15 prospects or recent grads get a significant look, this year. That hasn't happened in a long time. I see it as a good sign, although some may now get chances they might not deserve, due to injuries happening before the season even starts. I might cry about that, at some point.

 

I have "cried" about not improving the farm and resetting the tax, last deadline. I might be the top crier on that topic, although I do have some company.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you are talking about me, the 5 year plan is up in 2024. (2020 to 2024)

 

I had hopes we could be somewhat competitive, along the way, and 2021 probably gave me false hopes, but I do see our longer term chances as being way better than our longer term chances were in 2019 or 2020.

 

I'm no expert on what is the best way to improve a team, but I think starting with a solid and deep farm should help.

 

I'm not expert on judging how strong our farm is, but it appears to be much better than it looked in 2019 and 2020.

 

I'm happy to see we might see 12-15 prospects or recent grads get a significant look, this year. That hasn't happened in a long time. I see it as a good sign, although some may now get chances they might not deserve, due to injuries happening before the season even starts. I might cry about that, at some point.

 

I have "cried" about not improving the farm and resetting the tax, last deadline. I might be the top crier on that topic, although I do have some company.

 

Bloom spoke directly to the fans at today's Devers Forevers presser (I'm totally with you on Raffy, but can't give Chaim much credit for trading Diekman, when he's the guy who signed him in the first place; but, at least he dumped him in time to get something useful).

 

When Bloom said the plan was to build around Raffy, and alluded to what the Sox have coming, I took that to mean farmhands and not mercenaries. But don't get me wrong, like anyone else I'd love Soto, and maybe mega talents are the best get-what-you-pay-for way to invest.

 

We know spending large and long on pitching has to be the worst odds -- as far as getting entirely healthy returns on the life of their contracts. Maybe the best plan is to pay big for star position players while just keep acquiring established MLB starters over-30 with a lot of mileage but know-how -- 1-3 years at reasonable rates -- and go heavy on cheap young power arms recycled from the minors to eat up the bulk of relief innings... which comprise half of every game nowadays. It works in other places.

[moonslav59]

Bloom spoke directly to the fans at today's Devers Forevers presser (I'm totally with you on Raffy, but can't give Chaim much credit for trading Diekman, when he's the guy who signed him in the first place; but, at least he dumped him in time to get something useful).

 

When Bloom said the plan was to build around Raffy, and alluded to what the Sox have coming, I took that to mean farmhands and not mercenaries. But don't get me wrong, like anyone else I'd love Soto, and maybe mega talents are the best get-what-you-pay-for way to invest.

 

We know spending large and long on pitching has to be the worst odds -- as far as getting entirely healthy returns on the life of their contracts. Maybe the best plan is to pay big for star position players while just keep acquiring established MLB starters over-30 with a lot of mileage but know-how -- 1-3 years at reasonable rates -- and go heavy on cheap young power arms recycled from the minors to eat up the bulk of relief innings... which comprise half of every game nowadays. It works in other places.

 

The Diekman situation was the opposite of the Renfroe one. Good to sign renfroe- bad to trade him. Diekman: bad to sign him- good to trade him.

 

I see it this way: we were not bringing Vaz back, and nobody wanted Diekman back, so basically, we got McGuire, E Valdez and W Abrue for Vaz and Diekman. I'm counting this as a likely plus-plus.

 

The Phan and Hosmer deals? Meh, although we have Ferguson and Rosier, instead of guy we'd likely have lost on Rule 5: Groome.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A quick list of Red Sox pitchers paid like top-of-the-rotation starters: Sale, Eovaldi, Price, Lackey, Beckett, Schilling, Pedro -- JFC, they all got hurt and missed considerable time on the IL.

 

All had good to great runs, but none were really good investments for the life of his contract, except Pedro -- whose arm still required a two-week vacation every summer.

 

In contrast, a lot of big money position players played or tried to play through their aches and pains: Bogaerts, JD, even Pedroia (whose jersey they had to rip away, just to get him off the diamond). Was Manny ever hurt? This excludes Story, who was clearly damaged goods no matter how hard he threw having a catch last month...

[Bellhorn04]

A quick list of Red Sox pitchers paid like top-of-the-rotation starters: Sale, Eovaldi, Price, Lackey, Beckett, Schilling, Pedro -- JFC, they all got hurt and missed considerable time on the IL.

 

All had good to great runs, but none were really good investments for the life of his contract, except Pedro -- whose arm still required a two-week vacation every summer.

 

Schilling had a couple of stretches of being hurt, and couldn't pitch at all in 2008, but still produced overall good value.

 

His total pay from the Sox for the years 2004-2008 was approx. $60 K

 

Dollar value per Fangraphs:

 

2004 27.5

2005 8.1

2006 21.9

2007 12.8

Total 70.3

 

And then of course there are his postseason numbers for 2004 and 2007:

 

6-2 3.28

 

And the 2 championships.

[moonslav59]

Schilling had a couple of stretches of being hurt, and couldn't pitch at all in 2008, but still produced overall good value.

 

His total pay from the Sox for the years 2004-2008 was approx. $60 K

 

Dollar value per Fangraphs:

 

2004 27.5

2005 8.1

2006 21.9

2007 12.8

Total 70.3

 

And then of course there are his postseason numbers for 2004 and 2007:

 

6-2 3.28

 

And the 2 championships.

 

$60M was a great deal. The favor done for him in 2008 was well worth it.

[moonslav59]

A quick list of Red Sox pitchers paid like top-of-the-rotation starters: Sale, Eovaldi, Price, Lackey, Beckett, Schilling, Pedro -- JFC, they all got hurt and missed considerable time on the IL.

 

All had good to great runs, but none were really good investments for the life of his contract, except Pedro -- whose arm still required a two-week vacation every summer.

 

In contrast, a lot of big money position players played or tried to play through their aches and pains: Bogaerts, JD, even Pedroia (whose jersey they had to rip away, just to get him off the diamond). Was Manny ever hurt? This excludes Story, who was clearly damaged goods no matter how hard he threw having a catch last month...

 

Pedro did start his career with the Sox starting 33, 29 and 29 games, then, after 18 starts in 2001, he started 30, 29 and 33 games to end his time in Boston.

 

7 seasons with 6 being 29 or more starts. Yes, he often missed a few starts, but I don't ever think of him as being an injury risk or injury prone player with the Sox.

 

The list is pretty telling, and I can certainly un derstand why JH might shy away from more big deals.

 

Now, the Story mess.

[moonslav59]

Sox Largest Contracts Under Henry

(Manny was signed before JH to $160M/8)

 

$217M/7 Price

$154M/7 Agon

$145M/5 Sale

$142M/7 Crawford

$140M/6 Story

$120M/6 Bogey (opt out after $60M/3)

$110M/5 JD

$110M/8 Pedroia

$95M/5 Sandoval

$90M/5 Yoshida (plus $15M posting fee)

$88M/4 HRam

$82.5/4 Porcello

$82.5/5 Lackey

$72.5/7 Castillo

$70M/5 JD Drew

$68M/5 Beckett

$68M/4 Eovaldi

$63M Moncada (signing bonus + tax)

$52M/6 Dice-K (+$52M posting fee)

$52M/4 Ortiz

 

Not a very impressive list.

 

[notin]

What about the tangibles? Those you won’t find on any analytics sheet.

 

Oh, ok. Tell me about them. What are they? How much do they impact the team? Does Vazquez have them? Does McGuire not? Or are they just buzzwords folks throw around about players when they have nothing else to support their point?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox Largest Contracts Under Henry

(Manny was signed before JH to $160M/8)

 

$217M/7 Price

$154M/7 Agon

$145M/5 Sale

$142M/7 Crawford

$140M/6 Story

$120M/6 Bogey (opt out after $60M/3)

$110M/5 JD

$110M/8 Pedroia

$95M/5 Sandoval

$90M/5 Yoshida (plus $15M posting fee)

$88M/4 HRam

$82.5/4 Porcello

$82.5/5 Lackey

$72.5/7 Castillo

$70M/5 JD Drew

$68M/5 Beckett

$68M/4 Eovaldi

$63M Moncada (signing bonus + tax)

$52M/6 Dice-K (+$52M posting fee)

$52M/4 Ortiz

 

Not a very impressive list.

 

 

It's impressive you compiled it. Yikes, how many were actually worth the entire investment?

 

Certainly, Big Papi... Bogaerts for three years (but a reason to never again grant an opt-out clause)... JD, Porcello (won a Cy, leading winner on the greatest Sox team)... maybe Drew: 4-year average .853 OPS (his 5th year was half-a-season, but final seasons of contracts are accepted as lost causes).

[notin]

It's impressive you compiled it. Yikes, how many were actually worth the entire investment?

 

Certainly, Big Papi... Bogaerts for three years (but a reason to never again grant an opt-out clause)... JD, Porcello (won a Cy, leading winner on the greatest Sox team)... maybe Drew: 4-year average .853 OPS (his 5th year was half-a-season, but final seasons of contracts are accepted as lost causes).

 

Bogaerts was one year away from free agency. Very likely if you don’t give him an opt out clause, he’s gone after 2019. Why else would he have signed that deal?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogaerts was one year away from free agency. Very likely if you don’t give him an opt out clause, he’s gone after 2019. Why else would he have signed that deal?

 

Understood. So is the concept that you're only signing him for three -- instead of six -- albeit, prime years.

[Bellhorn04]

It's impressive you compiled it. Yikes, how many were actually worth the entire investment?

 

Certainly, Big Papi... Bogaerts for three years (but a reason to never again grant an opt-out clause)... JD, Porcello (won a Cy, leading winner on the greatest Sox team)... maybe Drew: 4-year average .853 OPS (his 5th year was half-a-season, but final seasons of contracts are accepted as lost causes).

 

Lackey is another ? - he was instrumental to 2013 title, so that counts for a lot.

 

The funny thing is we've had a lot of "bad contracts" that were instrumental to titles.

 

Foulke and Victorino would be two more worth mentioning.

[notin]

Understood. So is the concept that you're only signing him for three -- instead of six -- albeit, prime years.

 

That does sum it up. And we got his 27-30 years for less than SD will be paying him for ages 38-41.

 

Dombrowski was often far too generous with his contracts (and apparently still is), but his contract with Bogaerts was brilliant on so many levels…

[moonslav59]

Lackey is another ? - he was instrumental to 2013 title, so that counts for a lot.

 

The funny thing is we've had a lot of "bad contracts" that were instrumental to titles.

 

Foulke and Victorino would be two more worth mentioning.

 

The Manny contract, which came with the team sold to JH was likely the best "large and long" deal the teams of the 2000's had. (Papi's 4 year deal is not really "long," and even that great deal that lead to 2 rings, ended very bitterly.

 

Take away the 4 year deals and how many deals were good to great start to finish?

 

How many were good for more than half the years?

 

Had AGon stayed with us and put up the same numbers, would that contract be called a good one?

 

While many of these deals were essential pieces to ring years, and that is a huge plus, not many really could be called clear winning deals. One might begin to understand why JH is reluctant about repeating the same mistakes over and over. Great business men are often known for not doing just that. They learn from their mistakes and try hard not to repeat them.

 

Had we extended Lester, large and long, that would have been in the "win column." Had we extended Jake, ERod and some others, not at all.

 

[notin]

The Manny contract, which came with the team sold to JH was likely the best "large and long" deal the teams of the 2000's had. (Papi's 4 year deal is not really "long," and even that great deal that lead to 2 rings, ended very bitterly.

 

Take away the 4 year deals and how many deals were good to great start to finish?

 

How many were good for more than half the years?

 

Had AGon stayed with us and put up the same numbers, would that contract be called a good one?

 

While many of these deals were essential pieces to ring years, and that is a huge plus, not many really could be called clear winning deals. One might begin to understand why JH is reluctant about repeating the same mistakes over and over. Great business men are often known for not doing just that. They learn from their mistakes and try hard not to repeat them.

 

Had we extended Lester, large and long, that would have been in the "win column." Had we extended Jake, ERod and some others, not at all.

 

 

The 8 year deal Manny Ramirez signed was easily among the best long term contracts in MLB free agent history, along with the original deal for A-Rod (it was; look it up) and Washinton’s deal with Max Scherzer…

[moonslav59]

The 8 year deal Manny Ramirez signed was easily among the best long term contracts in MLB free agent history, along with the original deal for A-Rod (it was; look it up) and Washinton’s deal with Max Scherzer…

 

Agreed.

 

Manny was "da man!"

[moonslav59]

A look at Ryan Brasier

 

Many of us wonder how this guy is still on the 26 and 40 man roster year in and year out. No doubt, he has look good and very good, at times, but that seems to be fewer and fewer times or so long ago, it's almost forgotten. He's had some stretches of very good pitching, and his 34 IP in 2018 were excellent (1.60 ERA/ 0.772 WHIP), but since then his numbers have been:

155 IP (4 yrs)

4.82 ERA

1.32 WHIP

9.5 K/9

2.8 BB/9

3.92 FIP (which might be the answer to why he's still here) It was 3.61 in 2022 & 3.07 after May 17th.

 

I keep thinking he might be the next guy DFA'd or traded for scraps, but it never happens. Maybe, this will be the year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Lackey is another ? - he was instrumental to 2013 title, so that counts for a lot.

 

The funny thing is we've had a lot of "bad contracts" that were instrumental to titles.

 

Foulke and Victorino would be two more worth mentioning.

 

When assessing the worth of some of these, especially pitchers, the rings are certainly a factor.

 

But my point was about investing long and large on starters -- is it just bad luck or more bad management that the Red Sox' mound targets all seem to miss entire seasons in the rotation: Schilling, Lackey, Sale... not to mention paying Price to miss entire seasons in Boston.

 

If it's not incompetence or a curse, I guess if someone analyzed other big money free agent pitchers, there would be similar results? Scherzer was an exception, but even he's had breakdowns or early exits in recent postseasons. Cole has been durable so far... (but not good enough when it counts for Yankee fans).

[moonslav59]

A look at Josh Taylor

 

I've always liked this guy, but the injury bug has bit him hard, of late. His 2019 and 2021 seasons are two of the best seasons we've seen from our pen in the last 4-5 years:

 

2019 (47 IP)

3.04 ERA

3.11 FIP

1.18 WHIP

11.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9

 

2021 (48 IP)

3.40 ERA

2.83 FIP

1.43 WHIP

11.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9

 

He may never recover from his serious injury, but I can understand why we are holding onto him on the 40. (He still has 2 options remaining, so why not?)

[moonslav59]

When assessing the worth of some of these, especially pitchers, the rings are certainly a factor.

 

But my point was about investing long and large on starters -- is it just bad luck or more bad management that the Red Sox' mound targets all seem to miss entire seasons in the rotation: Schilling, Lackey, Sale... not to mention paying Price to miss entire seasons in Boston.

 

If it's not incompetence or a curse, I guess if someone analyzed other big money free agent pitchers, there would be similar results? Scherzer was an exception, but even he's had breakdowns or early exits in recent postseasons. Cole has been durable so far... (but not good enough when it counts for Yankee fans).

 

I think the rule about over 30 pitchers is not a bad one. There are exceptions, like Scherzer and Lester, but what is it about those two that scream out they wer4e exceptions back when they were signed, longterm?

 

It's not an exact science. Maybe it is just blind luck- maybe not.

 

Even pitchers who have aged very well, like Verlander have missed full seasons here and there. Timing might be the real luck factor.

 

Even on shorter deals: look at the Martin Perez example. We pay him next to peanuts to pitch for us on 2 one year deals. Nobody wanted him back in 2022, and look what happened.

 

Curse?

 

Incompetence?

 

Bad luck?

 

Bad timing?

[mvp 78]

A look at Ryan Brasier

 

Many of us wonder how this guy is still on the 26 and 40 man roster year in and year out. No doubt, he has look good and very good, at times, but that seems to be fewer and fewer times or so long ago, it's almost forgotten. He's had some stretches of very good pitching, and his 34 IP in 2018 were excellent (1.60 ERA/ 0.772 WHIP), but since then his numbers have been:

155 IP (4 yrs)

4.82 ERA

1.32 WHIP

9.5 K/9

2.8 BB/9

3.92 FIP (which might be the answer to why he's still here) It was 3.61 in 2022 & 3.07 after May 17th.

 

I keep thinking he might be the next guy DFA'd or traded for scraps, but it never happens. Maybe, this will be the year.

 

Reasons he's still on the team today:

'22 xFIP 3.49

'22 bb/9 1.88

'22 k/bb 4.92

'22 SIERA 3.12

 

Reasons he should be DFA'd

'22 Hard Hit 46.5%

'22 LOB 56.2%

Projected ARB salary 2.5M