A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

It's imprudent to assume any players coming off injury or surgery will be better than ever. We're left counting too much on aging and/or rehabbing veterans, and can only hope younger guys like Whitlock, Houck, Kike, Story and Raffy (50-50 he's even here on Opening Day) recover...

 

The Red Sox project very few regulars or starters who are both 100% and about to reach their primes. A big part of any success will most likely depend on strides taken by Bello and Casas, as well as the MLB transition of Yoshida.

 

But I do have confidence in Chris Martin.

 

Yes, some players will get hurt in 2023, no doubt, but I do think we can expect less than 2022 (and maybe more than 2021.)

 

38 J Turner (just turned 38 and should DH) He's had 420+ PAs in 7 of 8 yrs and 530+ in 3 of 4.

 

36 Martin (a key pen piece, but we also have Jansen, Houck & Schreiber)

 

34 Brasier (may be DFA'd soon)

 

34 Jansen (been solid and durable for 12 straight seasons)

 

33 Sale & Paxton (They are what they are.)

 

32 Barnes (looked to be coming on at the end of '22)

 

31 Refsnyder (can hardly say he's worn out)

 

30 Joely, Ort and Kike (still in prime)

 

The rest are 29 or younger.

 

I'm not talking Sale and Paxton. I'm thinking counting on both to combined for 25-33 starts is likely wishful thinking, but guys like Kike and Story are not at ages where you expect them to repeat their lost time in 2022. It looked like Devers was playing hurt through August, and at his age, one might think he's about to have a career year. If you look at the ages of our key players, some do jump out as higher risk, but our team is not "old."

 

[moonslav59]

Here is one that I agree with you on. I can in all honesty say that regardless of how anyone feels about the Sale contract, if it wasn't for my interest in him coming back, baseball for the first time in my life would not be a consideration with respect to my summer's entertainment. I guess that I am likely not your typical "old" Red sox fan but there might be a few others out there like me. I have loved this team and followed them religiously since the mid fifties but I can't remember a time when I have been this disgusted with the team's management. If they were to bring up some of our young players who most assume are not ready for prime time, and make a commitment to their futures then I would be interested in them. As for now, i really do think that what they have done is pathetic. If they are signing players currently that I could care less about, thinking that they can win with them, I would simply say that winning isn't everything. If this makes me a spoiled Red Sox fan who is unappreciative of the John Henry era, so be it. I am at least curious about the futures of players like Bello, Mayer, Casas, and Houck, and anyone else who has been brought along by our program.

 

Well said.

 

I do think the Sullivan purges had me feeling about this badly. Not sending Fisk his contract on time, which allowed him to become a FA has to be one of, if not the worst mistakes ever made by a Sox GM. He could have just traded him!

 

Losing Betts sucked, but I do think we offered a fair contract and then got what we could for him. The Lester fiasco still hurts. There are some unknowns on Bogey, like what were his demands, but that looks like a total cluster. The Beni, JBJ, Vaz moves are baseball, to me. Those types of trades have always been made.

 

Some of the purges of that great 70's teams were due to clashed with the manager: Bill Lee, Bernie Carbo and maybe Cecil Cooper, too. But the loss of Lynn, Burleson, Tiant (to the Yanks, no less) and even guys like Hobson was a very low point in Sox management history.

 

These were two different eras, but that was real bad.

 

 

[mvp 78]

It's baseball solstice, halfway between the final out of the WS and the first pitch of ST.

 

Sox still have big questions surrounding:

 

1. Will there be an addition to the rotation?

2. What do do about 2b/ss/cf?

3. Will Verdugo really be the fulltime RF?

4. Catcher acquisition was a big priority initially, are they still going to get one?

5. Raffy extension or trade?

[moonslav59]

Sox still have big questions surrounding:

 

1. Will there be an addition to the rotation? Yes, trade Dugo and Murphy to MIA for AGarcia, Luzardo & Rojas

2. What do do about 2b/ss/cf? Trade Dugo and Murphy to MIA for AGarcia, Luzardo & Rojas

3. Will Verdugo really be the fulltime RF? Trade Dugo and Murphy to MIA for AGarcia, Luzardo & Rojas

4. Catcher acquisition was a big priority initially, are they still going to get one? TOR is shopping catchers. They need OF, but I just traded Dudo. Duran & scraps...?

5. Raffy extension or trade? YES! DEVERS FOREVERS!

[Hugh2]

It's baseball solstice, halfway between the final out of the WS and the first pitch of ST.

 

Sox still have big questions surrounding:

 

1. Will there be an addition to the rotation? They sign Kluber

2. What do do about 2b/ss/cf? They will sign Andrus

3. Will Verdugo really be the fulltime RF? Yes

4. Catcher acquisition was a big priority initially, are they still going to get one? No, they will roll with Wong/McGuire, very little chance they add a catcher now

5. Raffy extension or trade?

I don't think they trade him, they work out an extension or continue to negotiate but he is your 2023 3B

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's baseball solstice, halfway between the final out of the WS and the first pitch of ST.

 

Sox still have big questions surrounding:

 

1. Will there be an addition to the rotation?

2. What do do about 2b/ss/cf?

3. Will Verdugo really be the fulltime RF?

4. Catcher acquisition was a big priority initially, are they still going to get one?

5. Raffy extension or trade?

 

Sam said yesterday they're ready to compete for the World Series, and that's that. No more moves.

 

So no to 1 and 4, yes to 3; in-house to 2.

 

But they have to solve 5... letting him slide to California in a year for a thank you tweet is just bad will punting.

[moonslav59]

Sam said yesterday they're ready to compete for the World Series, and that's that. No more moves.

 

So no to 1 and 4, yes to 3; in-house to 2.

 

But they have to solve 5... letting him slide to California in a year for a thank you tweet is just bad will punting.

 

He said, "No more moves?"

 

Kike should have had a contract release clause.

[Bellhorn04]

Sam said yesterday they're ready to compete for the World Series, and that's that. No more moves.

 

So no to 1 and 4, yes to 3; in-house to 2.

 

But they have to solve 5... letting him slide to California in a year for a thank you tweet is just bad will punting.

 

Pretty sure he didn't say no more moves.

[notin]

Pretty sure he didn't say no more moves.

 

There may be assumptions tacked on to that statement…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pretty sure he didn't say no more moves.

 

I'm pretty sure I didn't put that in quotes and it was just an answer to the questions in the post.

 

But if the Sox are already ring contenders, Sam, why spend more?

[mvp 78]

Sam said yesterday they're ready to compete for the World Series, and that's that. No more moves.

 

So no to 1 and 4, yes to 3; in-house to 2.

 

But they have to solve 5... letting him slide to California in a year for a thank you tweet is just bad will punting.

 

Someone really needs to kneecap Sammy.

[mvp 78]

I'm pretty sure I didn't put that in quotes and it was just an answer to the questions in the post.

 

But if the Sox are already ring contenders, Sam, why spend more?

 

What was the quote specifically?

[mvp 78]

"We remain optimistic that we are going to field a very competitive team with a chance to play baseball in October and win a World Series in 2023, absolutely,” team president Sam Kennedy told me Saturday.

 

I don't think that means that all the players are currently in house per se.

 

1. They are only optimistic.

2. The use of "going to field" to me seems like he is leaving open the idea that there are more additions.

 

It's used car salesman talk that we've heard since 2020.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"We remain optimistic that we are going to field a very competitive team with a chance to play baseball in October and win a World Series in 2023, absolutely,” team president Sam Kennedy told me Saturday.

 

I don't think that means that all the players are currently in house per se.

 

1. They are only optimistic.

2. The use of "going to field" to me seems like he is leaving open the idea that there are more additions.

 

It's used car salesman talk that we've heard since 2020.

 

"with a chance" is technically true... calamities and natural disasters could disable any adversary before the '23 playoffs... a pandemic might even happen.

 

But Sam meant it when he said a very competitive team will be on the field in Red Sox games. He just didn't specify which dugout they'll come from.

[Bellhorn04]

"We remain optimistic that we are going to field a very competitive team with a chance to play baseball in October and win a World Series in 2023, absolutely,” team president Sam Kennedy told me Saturday.

 

There are about 5 qualifiers in his statement. Masterfully done.

[mvp 78]

There are about 5 qualifiers in his statement. Masterfully done.

 

"Absolutely" at the end is f***ing hilarious to me.

[notin]

There are about 5 qualifiers in his statement. Masterfully done.

 

I think they’ll play in October. The regular season usually takes up the bulk of the first week…

[notin]

I'm pretty sure I didn't put that in quotes and it was just an answer to the questions in the post.

 

But if the Sox are already ring contenders, Sam, why spend more?

 

You’re reading waaaaay too much into that statement…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You’re reading waaaaay too much into that statement…

 

I already ran out and bought a Chevy to transport all the Bud Light cans it can carry to my decliner.

[moonslav59]

They said they'd add 7-9 players.

 

I think we're at 5..

[iortiz]

This team is going to be last again. I thought Bloom was going to be successful in Boston. I was wrong. This team is a disaster moving forward.

[moonslav59]

This team is going to be last again. I thought Bloom was going to be successful in Boston. I was wrong. This team is a disaster moving forward.

 

Our future actually looks much better than the here and now, but as the great band The Smiths would sing...

 

How Soon Is Now?

 

[Larry Cook]

They said they'd add 7-9 players.

 

I think we're at 5..

 

Need a short stop and a starter. You may be spot on at the end of the day.

[moonslav59]

Need a short stop and a starter. You may be spot on at the end of the day.

 

They never said a player or two out of those 7-9 might be via trade- like trading away Verdugo and acquiring a SP, SS or RF'er.

[moonslav59]

When we add Justin Turner to the 40, who goes?

 

If we add more players, who is next?

 

My DFA list:

 

1. Ort

2. Brasier

3. DHern

4. Seabold

5. Taylor (depending on his health)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

If we don't add a middle IF'er, what's the plan? We don't really have enough OF'ers to play Kike at 2B (Yoshida LF/ Refsnyder CF/ Verdugo RF), so it pretty much looks to me like it will be Story at SS and Arroyo at 2B.

 

We no longer even have Downs & Park as deep depth. Our depth is David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez. I can't imagine is starting the season with that line-up and depth. I'd like to see us get Andrus, but we never get who I think is best. Trading for a defensive SS might be in the works, and Story goes back to 2B, and the depth looks fine.

 

[moonslav59]

I think we add a SP and SS, but here is how it looks to me, with no more moves made:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B (R Dalbec)

6. R Kike CF

7. L Dugo/ R Refsnyder RF (platoon?)

8. R Arroyo/ L EValdez 2B (platoon?)

9. L MacGuire/ R Wong C

 

SP1. Sale

SP2. Whitlock

SP3. Paxton (Houck)

SP4. Bello

SP5. Pivetta

 

RP1. Jansen

RP2. Martin

RP3. Houck

RP4. Schreiber

RP5. Barnes

RP6. Joely

RP7. Mills

RP8. Brasier/Taylor/Kelly/German/Ort/DHern/Fernandez

SP/RP: Crawford/Mata/Winckowski/Walter/Seabold/Santos/Crohan

Minors (ML ready/near ready):

C: RHern (Cottam/C Hamilton/ S Scott)

1B: Crook/T Reed (Kavadas)

2B: Hamilton (Yorke)

SS: Fitzgerald Ferguson)

3B: Koss (Lugo)

LF: Duran (Abreu)

CF: Rafaela (McDonogh)

RF: Granberg (Jimenez)

DH: (Binelas)

[Tedballgame]

The Niko Goodrum era has begun. Another great signing by Bloom. It must have been the 5-43 he put up with the Astros that drew Bloom to him. You're killing me Smalls.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Niko Goodrum era has begun. Another great signing by Bloom. It must have been the 5-43 he put up with the Astros that drew Bloom to him. You're killing me Smalls.

 

Cut him some slack. The Mets stole Correa, so Bloom pivots to Niko.

 

On the way, he stopped at the bank to pick up some coin wrappers. Sam says they're using all resources -- there will be no couch cushions unflipped and unsearched.

[Nick]

Cot now has our tax payroll at $185M. We're $48M under the cap.

 

Turner article in MassLive indicated that Devers needs to DH more in order to get him off of his feet and mitigate injury situation. I guess my concern is that the organization is concerned about his playing health. Again, Devers health is not my concern. But it does appear that the organization is concerned about it.

 

I'm now less than 50/50 on the Sox extending Devers. Ugh.

 

PS. Mets now up to $384M in tax payroll.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Nick