A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

That offense might be much better than 2022.

The defense ay 1B, 2B, CF and C should be better. Maybe worse at LF and RF.

The rotation was not great in 2022 and this one does not look better, but would bringing Nate, Wacha and Hill back be more promising?

The pen should be light years better, despite Whitlocks removal from it.

I'm always excited for baseball, but the team would need to show me what it's got before I go all in.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for enlightening me. I would have never thought that.

 

Maybe it's just because you are naive, but you should have thought of that.

[moonslav59]

2013 was a worst to first for the ages, but has to be kept in perspective. The only possible parallels the 2023 Red Sox have right now are pitchers being counted on to make massive comebacks to lead the staff. The '13 Sox got good contributions from a lot of new faces, and one was an overnight sensation, transforming into the greatest closer in at least team history -- for one season.

 

But that 2013 team also returned a core of three star players -- a Hall of Fame DH, a borderline Hall of Fame infielder and an outfielder who led the majors in stolen bases. That trio also finished 1-2-3 in MVP votes for Boston and in the AL's top 15.

 

The 2023 Red Sox are returning Raffy Devers... maybe.

 

All great points, but how many Sox players finished in the top 15 in 2012.

 

How many Sox fans thought adding Vic, Napoli, S Drew and Dempster was enough to make us a top contender?

 

Granted, we did not lose a Bogey from 2012 to 2013, either, but we did lose Agon and 2007 WS hero Beckett.

 

Look, I'm not trying to say 2023 will or can be the next 2013, but I'm just saying teams can recover and win after losing key players.

 

If the Astros sucked, right now, all I'd be hearing down here, is how they let Springer, Correa, Cole and others go. Nobody cares about them, now.

 

That's my point- not that we are going to win and certainly not that we increased our chances of winning by letting them go.

[moonslav59]

I'm always excited for baseball, but the team would need to show me what it's got before I go all in.

 

Like 2013, right?

[moonslav59]

Maybe it's just because you are naive, but you should have thought of that.

 

Maybe you don't understand sarcasm. Think about that.

 

BTW, I just said, "maybe I'm naive," so I "should have thought about that." kinda rights hollow, or were you being sarcastic?

[mvp 78]

Like 2013, right?

 

Not sure what it was like where you were posting, but people on here were relatively hopeful about 2013. I don't think they saw a WS, but many predicted a WC birth. I can't say the same for 2023 right now.

[moonslav59]

Not sure what it was like where you were posting, but people on here were relatively hopeful about 2013. I don't think they saw a WS, but many predicted a WC birth. I can't say the same for 2023 right now.

 

Analogies do not need to be exactly alike to be informative.

 

Maybe more people were hopeful in March 2022 than March 2021, so what?

 

The point is, results aren't shaped bu hopes of fans levels.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[cp176]

The loyalty that you want back was servitude. Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski and all those other players you grew up idolizing didn’t stay with the Sox out of loyalty; they had no choice to join the team and no option to leave.

 

Some fans might romanticize relegation a bit too much…

 

I'm not sure that servitude is the correct word to use in this instance. I'm kind of thinking that the events of the early 70's changed the way contracts were approached for sure.

.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure that servitude is the correct word to use in this instance. I'm kind of thinking that the events of the early 70's changed the way contracts were approached for sure.

.

 

Yes, players no longer had to work for their massah.

[Nick]

Let's wait and see the offer made to Devers. It should be big enough so the Sox will not be embarrassed.

[notin]

I'm not sure that servitude is the correct word to use in this instance. I'm kind of thinking that the events of the early 70's changed the way contracts were approached for sure.

.

 

Fair point about the diction. But my point was players prior to free agency had no choice in teams and pay…

[moonslav59]

Let's wait and see the offer made to Devers. It should be big enough so the Sox will not be embarrassed.

 

It will be very telling, assuming we can trust the veracity of any reports that come out naming the initial offer made by the Sox, of if that has already happened, their latest one.

 

I don't think $275M/10 would be "lowball," but it won't be enough, after what we saw the last 2-3 weeks.

 

If reports are accurate that he's due about $16M in his final arb year, starting the contract, now would give him more upfront money, which is great when inflation is high.

 

$16M 2023 + $284M/10 extension after 2023 is $300M/11 total.

 

He might prefer $300M/11 starting now while makin $27.3M a year starting in 2023. ($11M more in 2023, but less under the remaining years and with a lower AAV in every year but 2023 (maybe a Sox advantage, if we still reset in '23.)

 

Considering inflation, it might make more sense to take $290M/11 rather than $16M/1 + $284M/10. If he invests it well, he'll end up with more in the long run.

 

It might take $320/10 or $350M/12 to get him to sign, now. That is very likely an amount the Sox will refuse to offer, no matter what the market says he will or "should" get.

[moonslav59]

Fair point about the diction. But my point was players prior to free agency had no choice in teams and pay…

 

Not many other professions forced this upon anyone.

 

Of course, players were free to find another profession and leave, and other businesses do have clauses about going to competitors after leaving their company, but MLB was rather extreme.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All great points, but how many Sox players finished in the top 15 in 2012.

 

 

My point was that going into 2013, the Red Sox had three star players in their primes: Pedroia had already won an MVP, Ellsbury was a MVP runner-up, and Ortiz had five top-5 MVP finishes in a row.

 

Devers and Story have received MVP votes in three seasons, but never a finish higher than 8th place. It seems like the best is yet to come for Raffy... but where?

[Bellhorn04]

So now the Dodgers have 2 key members of the 2018 champion Red Sox.

 

And the Red Sox have 2 key members of the 2020 champion Dodgers.

[moonslav59]

My point was that going into 2013, the Red Sox had three star players in their primes: Pedroia had already won an MVP, Ellsbury was a MVP runner-up, and Ortiz had five top-5 MVP finishes in a row.

 

Devers and Story have received MVP votes in three seasons, but never a finish higher than 8th place. It seems like the best is yet to come for Raffy... but where?

 

Is that the best way to judge a team's chances or how the fans felt about our chances before 2013?

 

Certainly, I'm not going to say fans feel better now than in March 2013. My point is only that winning does not always relate to fan levels of positivity.

 

I remember a lot of fans being really pissed about the Dodger trade and how a one month collapse did not mean the whole team needed to be overhauled.

 

Then, after that trade, many were upset we "spread the savings" out on second tier FAs and not on fewer better ones. It is in this sense, I made the comp.

 

Vic, Napoli, S Drew and Demspter was not what anyone hoped for or approved of, at the time. Again, not to level of disgust we hear, this winter, but it was not positive.

 

Again, I'm not comparing which team had a better chance or not, but only that there are similarities, I felt were worth mentioning..

 

I was not happy then, and I'm more unhappy now, that I was then, but I do think winning in 2023 can and will change the mood, if it happens.

[harmony]

At The Athletic, the Red Sox came in second on columnist Jim Bowden's list of losers (and winners) so far this offseason:

2. Boston Red Sox

This has been a nightmare offseason for the Red Sox. They watched as Bogaerts, their team leader, departed in free agency to the Padres. They still haven’t been able to extend their star player, Rafael Devers, who will be a free agent after next season; if they’re finally able to get a deal done, the Red Sox would at least salvage something from this bizarre offseason. They spent a whopping $90 million on Yoshida, guaranteeing the Japanese outfielder that hefty sum on a five-year contract without knowing how he’ll fare against major-league pitching. They filled their closer role by signing Kenley Jansen, 35, but did they have to give him a second year on the deal? (Remember, the Braves signed Jansen to a one-year contract last offseason.) And should they be concerned about how the new pitch clock will affect one of the slowest workers in the game by pitch tempo? Can he speed up his delivery by more than 10 seconds and still be as effective? Their latest questionable move: giving Justin Turner, 38, a two-year, $21.7 million deal with a player option for 2024. The Red Sox are taking huge risks with some of their moves, and Bogaerts bolting is a big clubhouse loss as well as a talent loss.

 

Dictionary definition of the word BIZARRE:

1. very strange or unusual, especially so as to cause interest or amusement.

2. Boston Red Sox off-season 2022-2023.

 

— Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) December 19, 2022

https://theathletic.com/4005734/2022/12/19/mlb-offseason-winners-losers/

Subscription required.

[Bobe2]

Is that the best way to judge a team's chances or how the fans felt about our chances before 2013?

 

Certainly, I'm not going to say fans feel better now than in March 2013. My point is only that winning does not always relate to fan levels of positivity.

 

I remember a lot of fans being really pissed about the Dodger trade and how a one month collapse did not mean the whole team needed to be overhauled.

 

Then, after that trade, many were upset we "spread the savings" out on second tier FAs and not on fewer better ones. It is in this sense, I made the comp.

 

Vic, Napoli, S Drew and Demspter was not what anyone hoped for or approved of, at the time. Again, not to level of disgust we hear, this winter, but it was not positive.

 

Again, I'm not comparing which team had a better chance or not, but only that there are similarities, I felt were worth mentioning..

 

I was not happy then, and I'm more unhappy now, that I was then, but I do think winning in 2023 can and will change the mood, if it happens.

 

Your forgetting the most important factor that year Boston Strong the Marathon Bombing and the speech Ortiz gave brought the whole city together with the Sox we had to win or no storybook ending

[moonslav59]

Your forgetting the most important factor that year Boston Strong the Marathon Bombing and the speech Ortiz gave brought the whole city together with the Sox we had to win or no storybook ending

 

I'm not forgetting that, at all.

 

My only point is that fans have been disgusted to varying levels over the years, due to losing beloved stars, and winning helped us get over it.

 

This case is different in two ways: the disgust is as deep as I've felt since the Sullivan purges, and we haven't won after losing Betts and Bogey. 2021, helped a little on Betts, but if we don't win, soon, we may never get over this, just like I never got over losing Lynn, Burleson, Fisk and others from those great 70's teams.

[Bellhorn04]

At The Athletic, the Red Sox came in second on columnist Jim Bowden's list of losers (and winners) so far this offseason:

 

https://theathletic.com/4005734/2022/12/19/mlb-offseason-winners-losers/

Subscription required.

 

There are some weird comments there. Other teams are handing out deals in the hundreds of millions, and the Red Sox are the ones taking "huge risks" with Jansen and Turner? Not very logical.

[Old Red]

So now the Dodgers have 2 key members of the 2018 champion Red Sox.

 

And the Red Sox have 2 key members of the 2020 champion Dodgers.

 

The Dodgers WH that trade off.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is that the best way to judge a team's chances or how the fans felt about our chances before 2013?

 

Certainly, I'm not going to say fans feel better now than in March 2013. My point is only that winning does not always relate to fan levels of positivity.

 

I remember a lot of fans being really pissed about the Dodger trade and how a one month collapse did not mean the whole team needed to be overhauled.

 

Then, after that trade, many were upset we "spread the savings" out on second tier FAs and not on fewer better ones. It is in this sense, I made the comp.

 

Vic, Napoli, S Drew and Demspter was not what anyone hoped for or approved of, at the time. Again, not to level of disgust we hear, this winter, but it was not positive.

 

Again, I'm not comparing which team had a better chance or not, but only that there are similarities, I felt were worth mentioning..

 

I was not happy then, and I'm more unhappy now, that I was then, but I do think winning in 2023 can and will change the mood, if it happens.

 

The 2013 Red Sox had a lot of new faces, but a lot more homegrown or longtime fan favorites, and were at least identifiable for the fanbase. Guys you're used to rooting for.

 

Sam Kennedy can say all he wants about producing a winner to win back the fans, but even if Ohtani and Trout are acquired -- this team is going nowhere unless they resolve the Devers situation.

 

They absolutely cannot repeat the Bogey fiasco and play out the string with Raffy for one more season and let him walk.

 

No one will tolerate it: not the fans, not the media, not the players, facing the fans and media. Not again.

[moonslav59]

The 2013 Red Sox had a lot of new faces, but a lot more homegrown or longtime fan favorites, and were at least identifiable for the fanbase. Guys you're used to rooting for.

 

Sam Kennedy can say all he wants about producing a winner to win back the fans, but even if Ohtani and Trout are acquired -- this team is going nowhere unless they resolve the Devers situation.

 

They absolutely cannot repeat the Bogey fiasco and play out the string with Raffy for one more season and let him walk.

 

No one will tolerate it: not the fans, not the media, not the players, facing the fans and media. Not again.

 

Agreed. My position on Devers is well known.

 

I can't imagine a scenario where we will win quickly enough after losing Devers. I do think if somehow we do, things will be back to the norm, which of course is not all that great.

[moonslav59]

I'm not happy we lose our fan faves.

 

I wasn't all that upset losing Beni and felt "losing" JBJ was the right thing. It was bringing back that shocked me.

 

Losing Betts was worse than Lester, but the Lester oen was handled so badly, it makes it stand out more.

 

I have always said if it comes down to one OR the other, I'd choose Devers over Bogey, but losing both would be devastating.

 

If our new model is to be like Houston, then letting some fan faves go might not be so bad, but we have to win and keep winning to have it all make sense.

 

[mvp 78]

It’s not letting SOME go, they are letting ALL of them go.

[harmony]

From The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal:

“We remain optimistic that we are going to field a very competitive team with a chance to play baseball in October and win a World Series in 2023, absolutely,” team president Sam Kennedy told me Saturday before the Red Sox lost out on Swanson, a player in whom they had interest. (Kennedy is the member of the ownership group appointed to speak for Henry and Werner, who rarely speak themselves publicly).

https://theathletic.com/4014758/2022/12/19/red-sox-owners-free-agency-blame/

Subscription required.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to hope we will have some significant additions before opening day, and of course the Devers situation is on everyone's mind. It might be too early to start looking at our roster in depth and comparing it to past teams. I already did a brief comp with the 2022 team but we can improve on 2022 and still come up sort of making the playoffs or better.

 

Here is a comp to the 2021 team, and maybe this will be more telling.

 

Catcher .686 OPS (Vaz .640/ Plawecki .780 in 2021)

McGuire and Wong- close to even.

 

1B: .761 OPS (.768 Dalbec + 8 others)

Casas and Dalbec- close to even

 

2B: .777 OPS (1.052 Kike/.764 Arroyo/.511 Marwin & 8 others)

Story should do better, but he may be at SS

 

SS: .822 OPS (Bogey .855)

??? Massive edge to Bogey

 

3B: .909 OPS (Devers .902)

Devers about equal

 

LF: .695 OPS (.772 Dugo/ .641 JD .472 Cordero)

Yoshida should be a plus

 

CF: .678 OPS (.671 Kike/ .806 Dugo/.590 Duran)

Kike should be better

 

RF: .803 OPS (.824 Renfroe/ .793 Dugo)

Dugo & Ref should be worse

 

DH: .906 OPS (.945 JD)

J Turner & others should be worse.

 

The everyday 9? 3 better, 3 about the same, 3 worse

 

Pitching by IP in 2021: (ERA+)

182 Nate 125 > Sale is likely a minus

158 ERod 99 > Paxton is likely a minus

155 Pivetta 103 > Pivetta is even

137 Richards 96 > Whitlock is likely a big plus

114 Perez 99 > Bello is likely a plus

43 Sale 149 > ??? hard to know

 

Rotation might end up even

 

73 Whitlock 239 > Jansen would be hard to beat the '21 GW - minus

69 Houck 133 > Houck about the same

62 Ottavino 112 > Martin - plus

55 Barnes 124 > Barnes- minus

53 Sawamura 154> Schreiber- equal/plus

48 Taylor 138 > Joely - minus

40 DHern 140> Mills -???

40 Valdez 81> Brasier -???

37 Andriese 78 > Taylor/Crawford - ???

25 Robles/24 Rios/20 Workman >>> ???

 

Pen looks about even, too.

 

Maybe, I'm being generous, but I think the team, right now could be viewed as being close to the 2021 team, but that drop off at SS, DH and Ace is pretty steep.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd like to hope we will have some significant additions before opening day, and of course the Devers situation is on everyone's mind. It might be too early to start looking at our roster in depth and comparing it to past teams. I already did a brief comp with the 2022 team but we can improve on 2022 and still come up sort of making the playoffs or better.

 

Here is a comp to the 2021 team, and maybe this will be more telling.

 

Catcher .686 OPS (Vaz .640/ Plawecki .780 in 2021)

McGuire and Wong- close to even.

 

1B: .761 OPS (.768 Dalbec + 8 others)

Casas and Dalbec- close to even

 

2B: .777 OPS (1.052 Kike/.764 Arroyo/.511 Marwin & 8 others)

Story should do better, but he may be at SS

 

SS: .822 OPS (Bogey .855)

??? Massive edge to Bogey

 

3B: .909 OPS (Devers .902)

Devers about equal

 

LF: .695 OPS (.772 Dugo/ .641 JD .472 Cordero)

Yoshida should be a plus

 

CF: .678 OPS (.671 Kike/ .806 Dugo/.590 Duran)

Kike should be better

 

RF: .803 OPS (.824 Renfroe/ .793 Dugo)

Dugo & Ref should be worse

 

DH: .906 OPS (.945 JD)

J Turner & others should be worse.

 

The everyday 9? 3 better, 3 about the same, 3 worse

 

Pitching by IP in 2021: (ERA+)

182 Nate 125 > Sale is likely a minus

158 ERod 99 > Paxton is likely a minus

155 Pivetta 103 > Pivetta is even

137 Richards 96 > Whitlock is likely a big plus

114 Perez 99 > Bello is likely a plus

43 Sale 149 > ??? hard to know

 

Rotation might end up even

 

73 Whitlock 239 > Jansen would be hard to beat the '21 GW - minus

69 Houck 133 > Houck about the same

62 Ottavino 112 > Martin - plus

55 Barnes 124 > Barnes- minus

53 Sawamura 154> Schreiber- equal/plus

48 Taylor 138 > Joely - minus

40 DHern 140> Mills -???

40 Valdez 81> Brasier -???

37 Andriese 78 > Taylor/Crawford - ???

25 Robles/24 Rios/20 Workman >>> ???

 

Pen looks about even, too.

 

Maybe, I'm being generous, but I think the team, right now could be viewed as being close to the 2021 team, but that drop off at SS, DH and Ace is pretty steep.

 

It's imprudent to assume any players coming off injury or surgery will be better than ever. We're left counting too much on aging and/or rehabbing veterans, and can only hope younger guys like Whitlock, Houck, Kike, Story and Raffy (50-50 he's even here on Opening Day) recover...

 

The Red Sox project very few regulars or starters who are both 100% and about to reach their primes. A big part of any success will most likely depend on strides taken by Bello and Casas, as well as the MLB transition of Yoshida.

 

But I do have confidence in Chris Martin.

[cp176]

I'm not forgetting that, at all.

 

My only point is that fans have been disgusted to varying levels over the years, due to losing beloved stars, and winning helped us get over it.

 

This case is different in two ways: the disgust is as deep as I've felt since the Sullivan purges, and we haven't won after losing Betts and Bogey. 2021, helped a little on Betts, but if we don't win, soon, we may never get over this, just like I never got over losing Lynn, Burleson, Fisk and others from those great 70's teams.

 

Here is one that I agree with you on. I can in all honesty say that regardless of how anyone feels about the Sale contract, if it wasn't for my interest in him coming back, baseball for the first time in my life would not be a consideration with respect to my summer's entertainment. I guess that I am likely not your typical "old" Red sox fan but there might be a few others out there like me. I have loved this team and followed them religiously since the mid fifties but I can't remember a time when I have been this disgusted with the team's management. If they were to bring up some of our young players who most assume are not ready for prime time, and make a commitment to their futures then I would be interested in them. As for now, i really do think that what they have done is pathetic. If they are signing players currently that I could care less about, thinking that they can win with them, I would simply say that winning isn't everything. If this makes me a spoiled Red Sox fan who is unappreciative of the John Henry era, so be it. I am at least curious about the futures of players like Bello, Mayer, Casas, and Houck, and anyone else who has been brought along by our program.

[Bellhorn04]

Here is one that I agree with you on. I can in all honesty say that regardless of how anyone feels about the Sale contract, if it wasn't for my interest in him coming back, baseball for the first time in my life would not be a consideration with respect to my summer's entertainment. I guess that I am likely not your typical "old" Red sox fan but there might be a few others out there like me. I have loved this team and followed them religiously since the mid fifties but I can't remember a time when I have been this disgusted with the team's management. If they were to bring up some of our young players who most assume are not ready for prime time, and make a commitment to their futures then I would be interested in them. As for now, i really do think that what they have done is pathetic. If they are signing players currently that I could care less about, thinking that they can win with them, I would simply say that winning isn't everything. If this makes me a spoiled Red Sox fan who is unappreciative of the John Henry era, so be it. I am at least curious about the futures of players like Bello, Mayer, Casas, and Houck, and anyone else who has been brought along by our program.

 

Well, it does look like you're going to see a lot of the kids this year and in the near future.