A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Our bullpen is significantly improved our last year’s bullpen. Starting pitching is thin, but if healthy, might be better than last year. Offense has more holes than Swiss cheese.

 

The loss of Bogey and JD on offense is big, despite them only having 135 RBI combined, but in all honesty, don't you expect improved offense from...

 

1B (Casas> Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer)

2B (Strory over 1/2 Story)

LF (Yoshida> Dugo/Pham/Cordero

CF (Kike > 1/2 Kike)

RF (Dugo & Ref > JBJ/Duran & Co)

 

C and DH may be slight losses, but our catchers hit like .680 and our DHs hit near .760, McGuire & Wong may hit near .680 and a DH combo of Dugo/Yoshida/Dalbec/Arroyo/Ref may hit .760, too.

 

The big loss is Bogey and the lack of RH'd depth.

 

One big RH'd bat and a solid SP'er and I may feel more optimistic.

 

Add a Devers extension, and... (I can't say it, yet.)

[moonslav59]

Some BTV values of interest:

 

6.7 Verdugo

6.5 McGuire

4.2 Paxton

2.9 Seabold

2.6 Winckowski

2.4 Hamilton

2.1 Abreu

1.9 Wong

1.8 Rosier

1.7 Valdez

1.4 German

1.2 Binelas & Ferguson

1.0 Kelly & Refsnyder

0.9 Pivetta

0.7 R Hern

0.5 Gambrell

0.3 C Hamilton

0.2 Downs & F Valdez

0.1 Kike, Ort & de la Rosa

-0.3 Joely

-5.7 Jansen

-7.8 Barnes

-37.4 Story

 

 

6.4 Bogaerts

3.5 Groome

1.9 Renfroe

0.0 JBJ

-0.8 Betts

-9.6 Beni

-14.2 Vaz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No Monkees jokes!!! You tork…

 

Fun fact: Michael Nesmith's mother invented White-Out.

 

Unfun: Chaim Bloom's mother's son filled a super-soaker with it and is almost done spraying the entire roster of 2018 champions.

[Tedballgame]

Some BTV values of interest:

 

6.7 Verdugo

6.5 McGuire

4.2 Paxton

2.9 Seabold

2.6 Winckowski

2.4 Hamilton

2.1 Abreu

1.9 Wong

1.8 Rosier

1.7 Valdez

1.4 German

1.2 Binelas & Ferguson

1.0 Kelly & Refsnyder

0.9 Pivetta

0.7 R Hern

0.5 Gambrell

0.3 C Hamilton

0.2 Downs & F Valdez

0.1 Kike, Ort & de la Rosa

-0.3 Joely

-5.7 Jansen

-7.8 Barnes

-37.4 Story

 

 

6.4 Bogaerts

3.5 Groome

1.9 Renfroe

0.0 JBJ

-0.8 Betts

-9.6 Beni

-14.2 Vaz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still don't know why Bloom gave up on Groome for Hosmer!

[Hugh2]

I still don't know why Bloom gave up on Groome for Hosmer!

 

Groome is not the same guy they drafted, health issues, diminished stuff, lost velocity. He probably sniffs the majors one day but in 6 minor league seasons he never showed much.

 

He may have been selected in this years rule 5 had they not traded him. They got something rather than nothing.

[Hugh2]

Bloom is either a victim, highly traumatized doing Henry’s bidding.

 

Or.

 

He still works for the Rays, but he has pictures of Henry in Drag.

 

Call it 50/50

[Bellhorn04]

Groome is not the same guy they drafted, health issues, diminished stuff, lost velocity. He probably sniffs the majors one day but in 6 minor league seasons he never showed much.

 

He may have been selected in this years rule 5 had they not traded him. They got something rather than nothing.

 

Bloom is great at working on the fringes...

 

He just seems incredibly passive when it comes to the big moves.

[Bellhorn04]

When you look at the MLBTR feed it's like someone is having fun with the Sox. Yesterday we had

 

"Red Sox Interested in JD Martinez Reunion"

 

followed shortly by

 

"JD Martinez to Sign With Dodgers"

 

Maybe the Sox were interested in the reunion of JD with Betts...

[Hugh2]

Bloom is great at working on the fringes...

 

He just seems incredibly passive when it comes to the big moves.

 

This.

 

If you could invent a GM who made 1-2 big moves an off-season in the mold of DD and then passed the keys over to Bloom to fill out the roster you’d have my ideal GM.

 

Bloom seems to be more allergic to big moves than Charrington was

[Hugh2]

When you look at the MLBTR feed it's like someone is having fun with the Sox. Yesterday we had

 

"Red Sox Interested in JD Martinez Reunion"

 

followed shortly by

 

"JD Martinez to Sign With Dodgers"

 

Maybe the Sox were interested in the reunion of JD with Betts...

 

Everyone we’ve been linked to we don’t sign.

 

Everyone we’ve signed we weee never linked too.

 

Which is why I think Andrus/Segura are still in play for SS

[moonslav59]

I still don't know why Bloom gave up on Groome for Hosmer!

 

It wasn't just Hosmer:

 

3.5 Groome

1.8 Rosier + 1.2 Ferguson = 3.0

[moonslav59]

When you look at the MLBTR feed it's like someone is having fun with the Sox. Yesterday we had

 

"Red Sox Interested in JD Martinez Reunion"

 

followed shortly by

 

"JD Martinez to Sign With Dodgers"

 

Maybe the Sox were interested in the reunion of JD with Betts...

 

It's the pattern of the Sox winter: "Reported interest" then signing elsewhere.

 

The actual signings had no or very little reports of Sox interest.

[moonslav59]

Bloom is great at working on the fringes...

 

He just seems incredibly passive when it comes to the big moves.

 

It sure seems that way, but I still wonder how much of the coming up short has to do with JH & Co.

 

I'm pretty sure they have a system for assigning value to players and the max they'd pay for someone they want or need, but is Bloom the main guy involved with the valuation process or the setting of all major offers?

 

If he is, then that may be the driving force behind JH & Co. always saying no. Bloom might come to JH & Co and say, (Last spring) "We concluded Bogey is worth $170M/7, but think an offer of $180M/7 is acceptable. We discussed this number with BorA$$, and he said we are way off. Should we offer more?" Maybe JH & Co. said no, because they trusted the value Bloom & Co gave them.

 

Maybe Bloom is not the major "value setter," or maybe JH & Co. are the ones being the idea that no large and long deals are to be given out, until a certain time- perhaps when they feel another priority is met (like a foundation is established worthy of spending larger on to get us over the top.)

 

Maybe, someday we will find out what all the inner workings were in the Bogey case and other decisions made under Bloom, but for now, it's mostly speculation. We can no longer use what they say as any sort of evidence to support any of our opinions on what went down or is currently going down.

 

In some ways the secrecy is helpful, but it makes it hard for plans to know what the hell is going on. When the team loses, the secrecy only compounds the frustration and anger.

[moonslav59]

This.

 

If you could invent a GM who made 1-2 big moves an off-season in the mold of DD and then passed the keys over to Bloom to fill out the roster you’d have my ideal GM.

 

Bloom seems to be more allergic to big moves than Charrington was

 

Maybe the failures of Ben's major signings and even the Price signing and Porcello & Sale extensions have made the to brass put a halt to mega deals and look more towards the $140M/6 for Story and $85M/5 for Yoshida deals as "the way of the future."

 

I'm thinking/hoping that we will spend large and long again, but they are waiting for the right "pounce time," and surely listening to the pessimism on this board, I think we might all agree, this team is not 1-2 major signings away from being a true ring contender.

 

Now, had we been adding 1-2 every year, since DD left, we likely would be2, but the brakes were clearly applied, and when that foot comes fully off the brakes, only JH & Co. knows.

[moonslav59]

My guess is, our biggest moves to finish the winter will be trades. Maybe we sign Kluber or Fulmer. Maybe we sign Andrus or Segura. Maybe we sign a RF'er, so Yoshida can mostly DH.

 

It sure looks like things are shaping up to be a major disappointment, and maybe only a Devers extension can change the "major" to "moderate. If the extension starts in 2023, then it makes a little more sense of the budget restraint shown, so far, but there will still be a lot of money left on the table- a clear sign that 2023 was not meant to be a highly competitive year.

 

Sad that we couldn't even get to mildly competitive.

 

[moonslav59]

Watch us trade Devers for top prospects, then sign Drury (3B/DH), Andrus (SS), Conforto (RF) and Kluber (SP) and try to sell this as being competitive.

[Hugh2]

I think the off-season is capped off by signing one of Eovaldi/Wacha/Kluber

 

And then one of -

 

Andrus/Segura.

 

With an outside chance for a trade for an outfielder. Maybe someone who can play RF and other positions and be a 4th OF bench bat, or Verdugo is packaged up and they go for more of a starter type.

 

Not to inspired to believe in anything big, but Bloom is full of surprises when it comes to trades and moves in general. They never do what you think they will.

[Old Red]

Watch us trade Devers for top prospects, then sign Drury (3B/DH), Andrus (SS), Conforto (RF) and Kluber (SP) and try to sell this as being competitive.

 

I don’t think Raffy will get traded at all, and will be handled like Bogey was, and will deal with him next offseason. That way they can spread out the anger from the fans, and not to lose Bogey, and Raffy all at once.

[notin]

Watch us trade Devers for top prospects, then sign Drury (3B/DH), Andrus (SS), Conforto (RF) and Kluber (SP) and try to sell this as being competitive.

 

Know what would be even weirder?

 

If they were competitive after that….

[Tedballgame]

Know what would be even weirder?

 

If they were competitive after that….

 

Jim Rice and Fred Lynn aren't walking through that door.

[moonslav59]

Know what would be even weirder?

 

If they were competitive after that….

 

Not many thought replacing AGon & Beckett with Vic, Dempster, Napoli and S Drew made us better. We finished last in 2012 and the thought was we needed to get a lot better.

 

Never say never, but it's not looking good.

[moonslav59]

Jim Rice and Fred Lynn aren't walking through that door.

 

For sure, but when was the last time we said there are 12-16 prospects or recent grads expected to be given a significant chance to win a role on the team?

 

Not counting Whitlock, Houck, Duran...

 

1. Bello

2. Casas

3. Mata

4. Rafaela (late '23)

5. Walter

6. Kelly

7. Crawford

8. German

9. E Valdez

10. Winckowski

11. Wong

12. Murphy

13. Seabold

14. Hamilton

15. Koss

16. R Fernandez

17. R Hernandez or S Scott

18. Ort or Shugart

 

Okay, the bottom 12-20 look shaky, at best, and some of them may not get a chance in 2023, at all, let along a significant one, but there are hoped one or two of those bottom 8 may fill role or two.

 

The top 8-11 offer better hopes, and we may just need 3-5 to do well and make a big impact on the 2023 team. I don't think hoping 5 out of 20 do well is dreaming.

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing how fewer and fewer players will want to play for the Sox due to how they treat their players, especially outgoing ones.

 

We heard how they mistreated Vaz, yet Vaz reached out to the Sox, before signing to see if they were interested in bringing him back. They said no.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-sox-notes-vazquez-yoshida-rafaela.html

 

Sidenote: while BTV can be criticized for many of the value numbers, this is intersting:

 

-14.2 Vaz (He signed for $30, so his "value" is pegged at $15.8M for 2 years)

 

+6.5 McGuire (Estimated salary of $6.5M over 3 arbs and a "value" of $13M over 3 years.)

 

So, Vaz is worth $7.9 x 2 and is paid $15 x 2. McGuire is worth $4.3M x 3 and will be paid $2.17M x 3.

 

Wong is worth +$1.9M. Value is 4.9 and salary is projected to be $3M over 3 years. $1.6 value per year at $1M per year pay.

 

Not sure what Plawecki's value is or will be.

[a700hitter]

At this point, I would add Segura and move Story or SS, keep Kike in CF until he plays himself out of a job. Pick up Conforto for RF/DH. Add Kluber. And we still need a RH OFer.

[redsoxrules]

I keep hearing some people talking about trade. Who are we going to trade for that would fetch a good player? Apparently the whole point of bloom being here was to rebuild the farm. They are not going to trade their good prospects away and that leaves not much for trade candidates. What are we going to trade? Junk for junk?

[Bellhorn04]

I keep hearing some people talking about trade. Who are we going to trade for that would fetch a good player? Apparently the whole point of bloom being here was to rebuild the farm. They are not going to trade their good prospects away and that leaves not much for trade candidates. What are we going to trade? Junk for junk?

 

And since a million things would have to go right for the 2023 team to compete, it doesn't seem like the time anyway...

[redsoxrules]

And since a million things would have to go right for the 2023 team to compete, it doesn't seem like the time anyway...

 

Exactly. At best all you're going to see is adding Kubler and Andrus or something similar

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing some people talking about trade. Who are we going to trade for that would fetch a good player? Apparently the whole point of bloom being here was to rebuild the farm. They are not going to trade their good prospects away and that leaves not much for trade candidates. What are we going to trade? Junk for junk?

 

Dugo and Duran or Dalbec/Winckowski/Seabold/Murphy for a better RH'd RF'er than Refsnyder.

 

If Mayer is "it," what can Romero fetch us? (I feel it's better to hold onto Romero, at least until his value grow. If he ends up sucking, his current value is not so high that he'd bring us a high impact player.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. At best all you're going to see is adding Kubler and Andrus or something similar

 

,,and that seems like just further patchwork additions to "bridge to the kids."

[Tedballgame]

For sure, but when was the last time we said there are 12-16 prospects or recent grads expected to be given a significant chance to win a role on the team?

 

Not counting Whitlock, Houck, Duran...

 

1. Bello

2. Casas

3. Mata

4. Rafaela (late '23)

5. Walter

6. Kelly

7. Crawford

8. German

9. E Valdez

10. Winckowski

11. Wong

12. Murphy

13. Seabold

14. Hamilton

15. Koss

16. R Fernandez

17. R Hernandez or S Scott

18. Ort or Shugart

 

Okay, the bottom 12-20 look shaky, at best, and some of them may not get a chance in 2023, at all, let along a significant one, but there are hoped one or two of those bottom 8 may fill role or two.

 

The top 8-11 offer better hopes, and we may just need 3-5 to do well and make a big impact on the 2023 team. I don't think hoping 5 out of 20 do well is dreaming.

 

No more than 5 guys on that list are worth a crap.