How much would you offer Devers?

[Hugh2]

Olson is almost 3 whole years older than Devers, that’s an even worse comp.

[mvp 78]

Olson is almost 3 whole years older than Devers, that’s an even worse comp.

 

We play fast and loose with the rules around here.

[mvp 78]

Players who are taking extensions buying out multiple arbitration years are almost always taking less money. Players who wait get paid more. It’s not the greatest comp

 

I understand that part. It's just tough to figure out "how much" to adjust it for.

[Hugh2]

I understand that part. It's just tough to figure out "how much" to adjust it for.

 

Fair, but to be more fair, that’s probably why we shouldn’t use extensions like that as a comp

[mvp 78]

Fair, but to be more fair, that’s probably why we shouldn’t use extensions like that as a comp

 

I agree. Those deals usually come at a massive discount.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Olson is almost 3 whole years older than Devers, that’s an even worse comp.

 

If I'm Devers' agent, I just keep pointing at Anthony Rendon, whose contract will pay him $38,571,428 for each of the next four years for his ages 33 through 36...

 

... a slight overpay according to BIV (Baseball INSANE Values), but Rendon got paid -- starting at age 30 -- because of these 162-game averages for ages 26-29: 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 104 runs.

 

Devers' 162-game averages the past four years through age 25: 34 HRs, 114 RBI, 110 runs. Does anyone really think he won't command an AAV of $30M?

[mvp 78]

If I'm Devers' agent, I just keep pointing at Anthony Rendon, whose contract will pay him $38,571,428 for each of the next four years for his ages 33 through 36...

 

... a slight overpay according to BIV (Baseball INSANE Values), but Rendon got paid -- starting at age 30 -- because of these 162-game averages for ages 26-29: 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 104 runs.

 

Devers' 162-game averages the past four years through age 25: 34 HRs, 114 RBI, 110 runs. Does anyone really think he won't command an AAV of $30M?

 

And the Sox can point to Rendon's vastly superior defense and seasons of 6.4, 5.9 and 5.9 fWAR prior to the signing. Devers has only been above 5 once.

[Bellhorn04]

If I'm Devers' agent, I just keep pointing at Anthony Rendon, whose contract will pay him $38,571,428 for each of the next four years for his ages 33 through 36...

 

... a slight overpay according to BIV (Baseball INSANE Values), but Rendon got paid -- starting at age 30 -- because of these 162-game averages for ages 26-29: 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 104 runs.

 

Devers' 162-game averages the past four years through age 25: 34 HRs, 114 RBI, 110 runs. Does anyone really think he won't command an AAV of $30M?

 

Rendon was a much better defender so that comp doesn't really work either.

[notin]

If I'm Devers' agent, I just keep pointing at Anthony Rendon, whose contract will pay him $38,571,428 for each of the next four years for his ages 33 through 36...

 

... a slight overpay according to BIV (Baseball INSANE Values), but Rendon got paid -- starting at age 30 -- because of these 162-game averages for ages 26-29: 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 104 runs.

 

Devers' 162-game averages the past four years through age 25: 34 HRs, 114 RBI, 110 runs. Does anyone really think he won't command an AAV of $30M?

 

In the 4 years prior to signing his deal, Rendon had 30 Defensive Runs Saved. In the past 4 years, Devers has -39 Defensive Runs Saved.

 

If I’m negotiating against Devers’ agent, I would remind him those two players are not as equal as the offensive half of the game indicates…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But not one of the three posters automatically arguing about D acknowledge that Rendon also got paid for what he already did in his previous "prime" years of age 26-29... of which Devers has yet to embark upon.

[notin]

But not one of the three posters automatically arguing about D acknowledge that Rendon also got paid for what he already did in his previous "prime" years of age 26-29... of which Devers has yet to embark upon.

 

That’s a fair point, but is Rendon a good comp if Devers cannot stick at third?

[oldtimer]

In the 4 years prior to signing his deal, Rendon had 30 Defensive Runs Saved. In the past 4 years, Devers has -39 Defensive Runs Saved.

 

If I’m negotiating against Devers’ agent, I would remind him those two players are not as equal as the offensive half of the game indicates…

 

Devers did make a substantial improvement in DWAR last season and that may be part of a positive trend. Still not great defensively, but better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That’s a fair point, but is Rendon a good comp if Devers cannot stick at third?

 

Rendon's not a good comp for anyone -- we know it, and the industry knows it. But if he got $38.5M AAV at age 30, then Devers' similar production when he's about to enter his prime should be worth $30M, a valid number in the current market.

 

That's not an unreasonable pay rate for Raffy, even if he moves to first base or DH, since his bat always profiles as elite.

 

Here are the all players in MLB history who had 90 extra base hits in their age 22 season: Joe DiMaggio 96, Rafael Devers 90.

[notin]

Rendon's not a good comp for anyone -- we know it, and the industry knows it. But if he got $38.5M AAV at age 30, then Devers' similar production when he's about to enter his prime should be worth $30M, a valid number in the current market.

 

That's not an unreasonable pay rate for Raffy, even if he moves to first base or DH, since his bat always profiles as elite.

 

Here are the all players in MLB history who had 90 extra base hits in their age 22 season: Joe DiMaggio 96, Rafael Devers 90.

 

But do we know what Devers is asking for, including years?

[Hugh2]

But do we know what Devers is asking for, including years?

 

It’s actually against the CBA for a team to leak what a player is asking for.

[mvp 78]

It’s actually against the CBA for a team to leak what a player is asking for.

 

It was a third party that leaked.

[vegasbob]

Rendon is another big contract guy who cannot stay on the field. He has played in 105 of the Angels last 324 games. This says nothing directly about Devers but it does show how difficult making a 10 year commitment to any player actually is. If you were an actuary evaluating Devers physically for a 10 year plus War number you would need to think twice.

 

Bogaerts might be a better bet at a 6 year $$28-$30 million deal than Devers at 10 for $30+ million.

[moonslav59]

Rendon is another big contract guy who cannot stay on the field. He has played in 105 of the Angels last 324 games. This says nothing directly about Devers but it does show how difficult making a 10 year commitment to any player actually is. If you were an actuary evaluating Devers physically for a 10 year plus War number you would need to think twice.

 

Bogaerts might be a better bet at a 6 year $$28-$30 million deal than Devers at 10 for $30+ million.

 

Hard to know. Bogey on 6 vs Devers for 10 means they both end their contracts at the same age, but the 4 years extra Devers gets are all prime years.

 

I'd put the money on Devers. He may take $28M x 10 or $27M x 11 or 12.

[Deja Doh]

Career:

Ramirez 41.2 fWAR

Arenado 45.7 fWAR (1000 extra PA's from 2013-15)

 

Since 2016:

Ramirez 39.5 fWAR

Arenado 36.8 fWAR

 

Devers strikes out too much for not enough pop. As a lefty he pulls the ball too much and does not go the opposite way to the Monster. Judge on the other hand is more of pull machine and doesn't go so much to the right. Plus the exit velocity off of Judge's bat is 95 vs 92. Go for Judge.

 

Last year Bloom sat on his hands and let Seager go to Texas and then had to settle. Go get Judge.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers strikes out too much for not enough pop. As a lefty he pulls the ball too much and does not go the opposite way to the Monster. Judge on the other hand is more of pull machine and doesn't go so much to the right. Plus the exit velocity off of Judge's bat is 95 vs 92. Go for Judge.

 

Last year Bloom sat on his hands and let Seager go to Texas and then had to settle. Go get Judge.

 

The guy that signed Seager for $325 mill got fired.

[Hugh2]

The guy that signed Seager for $325 mill got fired.

 

Story is getting paid less than 1/2 of Seager as well. If Story didn’t get hurt he probably would have put up equal value.

 

Sox also had a guy called Bogaerts at SS, they needed a 2nD not a SS last year. Not going after Seager is a new one. Haven’t heard that one yet

Edited November 24, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Bellhorn04]

Story is getting paid less than 1/2 of Seager as well. If Story didn’t get hurt he probably would have put up equal value.

 

Sox also had a guy called Bogaerts at SS, they needed a 2nD not a SS last year. Not going after Seager is a new one. Haven’t heard that one yet

 

If you stick around here long enough you'll hear everything. It's always entertaining, though.

[moonslav59]

Heard the same on Semien & Baez, but Suzuki was the most talked about.

[moonslav59]

I remember thinking signing Scherzer or Verlander to shorter deals might be the best idea, since we seemed to be avoiding super large and long deals. Here are the biggest deals, last winter. How many look good, now?

 

$43 x 3 Scherzer

$35 x 3 Correa (opted out)

$33 x 10 Seager

$27 x 6 Freeman

$26 x 7 Bryant

$25 x 7 Semien

$25 x 2 Verlander

$24 x 3 Stroman

$23 x 6 Story

$23 x 6 Baez

$23 x 5 R Ray

$22 x 5 Gausman

$22 x 2 Rodon

$21 x 1 Syndergaard

$20 x 5 Castellenos

$20 x 4 Schwarber

$20 x 4 Marte

 

other 4+ Years

15.4 x 5 ERod

15 x 4 C Taylor

14.5 x 4 R Iglesias

14 x 4 Jon Gray

13 x 4 Av Garcia

11 x 4 Matz

 

[mvp 78]

Devers strikes out too much for not enough pop. As a lefty he pulls the ball too much and does not go the opposite way to the Monster. Judge on the other hand is more of pull machine and doesn't go so much to the right. Plus the exit velocity off of Judge's bat is 95 vs 92. Go for Judge.

 

Last year Bloom sat on his hands and let Seager go to Texas and then had to settle. Go get Judge.

 

Devers 22:

Pull 34%

Center 39.4%

Oppo 26.6%

 

Ortiz Career:

Pull 45.4

Center 34.1

Oppo 24.1

[mvp 78]

Heard the same on Semien & Baez, but Suzuki was the most talked about.

 

Suzuki trailed off after a torrid start, but was still a 2 fWAR player. He would have been a good signing at a position they still have a big hole to fill.

[Hugh2]

Devers 22:

Pull 34%

Center 39.4%

Oppo 26.6%

 

Ortiz Career:

Pull 45.4

Center 34.1

Oppo 24.1

 

Devers will get less than Judge, and is 4 years younger.

 

This is really a no-brainer.

[Bellhorn04]

Suzuki trailed off after a torrid start, but was still a 2 fWAR player. He would have been a good signing at a position they still have a big hole to fill.

 

Possibly. A 2.0 fWAR in the first season of an $85 million contract isn't very exciting, though.

[mvp 78]

Possibly. A 2.0 fWAR in the first season of an $85 million contract isn't very exciting, though.

 

Oh no. I'm not saying his contract was a slam dunk by any means. It was better than a lot of the other deals signed though.

[mvp 78]

Devers will get less than Judge, and is 4 years younger.

 

This is really a no-brainer.

 

Right now, there are no other bidders for Devers. Sox just need to get it done before the stupid money comes into play.