How much would you offer Devers?

[Hugh2]

Away from Wrigley Suzuki is only a .713 hitter. Story was much better than that Away from Coors before his injury-plagued 2022 campaign.

[mvp 78]

So is one season of underperformance that seems to mostly be tied into injury. The larger un-injured sample size equals an offensive player much better than Suzuki.

 

Is it tied to injury? When did the injury specifically drag down his numbers? You said he got the wrist injury in mid July. He saw no activity from 7/13-8/27. His numbers were bad even before the injury. His numbers were better after the injury. Seems like the time off actually helped his numbers.

[mvp 78]

Away from Wrigley Suzuki is only a .713 hitter. Story was much better than that Away from Coors before his injury-plagued 2022 campaign.

 

Story 642 Away last season.

 

When specifically did the injuries occur that "plagued" his season?

[mvp 78]

To me, the injuries didn't impact his perfomance on the field, it just put him directly onto the IL. They didn't drag his numbers down the way it did with Devers.

[moonslav59]

To me, the injuries didn't impact his perfomance on the field, it just put him directly onto the IL. They didn't drag his numbers down the way it did with Devers.

 

Hard to know.

[Hugh2]

Away from Wrigley Suzuki is only a .713 hitter. Story was much better than that Away from Coors before his injury-plagued 2022 campaign.

 

Story is a lifetime .739 hitter Away, despite 2022 suppressing those numbers that still bests SUzukis .713. So if we take away Coors field we have a very large sample size of Story still being a better hitter. Baring more injuries Story will be better.

 

It's perfectly fine to argue you have no faith in Story staying healthy. But it's obvious to me that was mostly the reason in his drop in performance and outside of injury he's a better player than Suzuki.

[Hugh2]

To me, the injuries didn't impact his perfomance on the field, it just put him directly onto the IL. They didn't drag his numbers down the way it did with Devers.

 

You can't compare injuries. Injuries affect everyone differently. Where are they injured? how are they injured? how severe is it? Everyone knows a wrist injury for a hitter is going to zap their production more than almost anything else.

[mvp 78]

Story is a lifetime .739 hitter Away, despite 2022 suppressing those numbers that still bests SUzukis .713. So if we take away Coors field we have a very large sample size of Story still being a better hitter. Baring more injuries Story will be better.

 

It's perfectly fine to argue you have no faith in Story staying healthy. But it's obvious to me that was mostly the reason in his drop in performance and outside of injury he's a better player than Suzuki.

 

League Average OPS:

2022: 706

2021: 728

2019: 758

2018: 728

2017: 750

2016: 739

 

And if Suzuki had played his previous seasons in MLB, his away numbers would most likely be higher too. Conversely, if OPS continues to remain on the low side as it was league wide last season, we can expect Story's previous seasons to be OVERVALUED and not meaningful when we are comparing to what Suzuki did in 2022.

[mvp 78]

You can't compare injuries. Injuries affect everyone differently. Where are they injured? how are they injured? how severe is it? Everyone knows a wrist injury for a hitter is going to zap their production more than almost anything else.

 

Story's wrist injury was being hit by a pitch. He was removed from the game and didn't appear again until he was healthy. How did that negatively impact his numbers? The other injury was his heal injury at the end of the season where I've already conceded that his numbers were GOOD. The heal injury didn't negatively impact his numbers. What injury occurred that dragged his numbers down? Or were his numbers just down due to bad performance and adjusting to a new league and lack of Spring Training? I'm not saying something else didn't drag his numbers down, but I'm not remembering what it was.

[Hugh2]

To me, the injuries didn't impact his perfomance on the field, it just put him directly onto the IL. They didn't drag his numbers down the way it did with Devers.

 

No he was good up until his worst injury, he started off the season slow then got hot then hot inured.

 

Even the best of the best have hot and cold streaks. I bet if we broke down the career of David Ortiz by months we’d see plenty of bad months. The only sample size we have were story has bad AND not injured is his first month. Have we not seen people start off slow, aside from that a few weeks here and there is inconsequential and proves nothing other than small sample sizes can tell us whatever we’d like them too.

[Hugh2]

Story 642 Away last season.

 

When specifically did the injuries occur that "plagued" his season?

 

So his “away from Coors field” OPS dropped 100 points, so obviously there’s a lot more than leaving Coors field going on here…..I dunno maybe he got off to a slow start and got injured?

 

To me it’s blatantly obviously Story had a down year plagued by no offseason and injury. I don’t buy any other narrative.

 

My only REAL concern is him not being past his injuries, continually being hurt, and being just as bad as last year. That’s a legit concern, and I see a decent chance of just that happening.

 

Aside from the above, I expect Story to be much better in 2023….and better than Suzuki.

[moonslav59]

So his “away from Coors field” OPS dropped 100 points, so obviously there’s a lot more than leaving Coors field going on here…..I dunno maybe he got off to a slow start and got injured?

 

To me it’s blatantly obviously Story had a down year plagued by no offseason and injury. I don’t buy any other narrative.

 

My only REAL concern is him not being past his injuries, continually being hurt, and being just as bad as last year. That’s a legit concern, and I see a decent chance of just that happening.

 

Aside from the above, I expect Story to be much better in 2023….and better than Suzuki.

 

Agreed, and his season was enhanced by timely hitting and more RBIs than his numbers indicated he should have had.

 

Yes, he had many in an eight day stretch, but even if you take those away he was among the leaders on the team in RBIs/PA, and nobody is taking away other player's best 8 days.

[mvp 78]

No he was good up until his worst injury, he started off the season slow then got hot then hot inured.

 

Even the best of the best have hot and cold streaks. I bet if we broke down the career of David Ortiz by months we’d see plenty of bad months. The only sample size we have were story has bad AND not injured is his first month. Have we not seen people start off slow, aside from that a few weeks here and there is inconsequential and proves nothing other than small sample sizes can tell us whatever we’d like them too.

 

I think your timeline is off. He was bad in April. Great in May. Not good in June of July. Got injured in middle of July and then was out until August. I don't think it was a lingering injury. When he was put on the IL retro to the injury date, it was to July 12th the actual date he was hit by the pitch and taken out of the lineup. That didn't impact 6/1 - 7/12.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10041938-red-soxs-trevor-story-placed-on-il-with-wrist-injury-connor-wong-recalled

[mvp 78]

So his “away from Coors field” OPS dropped 100 points, so obviously there’s a lot more than leaving Coors field going on here…..I dunno maybe he got off to a slow start and got injured?

 

To me it’s blatantly obviously Story had a down year plagued by no offseason and injury. I don’t buy any other narrative.

 

My only REAL concern is him not being past his injuries, continually being hurt, and being just as bad as last year. That’s a legit concern, and I see a decent chance of just that happening.

 

Aside from the above, I expect Story to be much better in 2023….and better than Suzuki.

 

I know he has the shoulder injury from COL that pushed him to 2B. I think the wrist/heal stuff from last year was most likely just fluky. Will his performance improve? Remains to be seen.

[dgalehouse]

When it comes to OPS, Story has shown a drop for the past three seasons. 2019- .917 2020- .874. 2021 - .801. 2022 - .737 . It has been said by some folks that players start to decline at age 30. ( However , they usually only say that when it suits their argument. ) I do think it is fair to say that Trevor Story's first year with the Sox was a disappointment. We all hope for improvement in 2023.

[notin]

When it comes to OPS, Story has shown a drop for the past three seasons. 2019- .917 2020- .874. 2021 - .801. 2022 - .737 . It has been said by some folks that players start to decline at age 30. ( However , they usually only say that when it suits their argument. ) I do think it is fair to say that Trevor Story's first year with the Sox was a disappointment. We all hope for improvement in 2023.

 

 

I like the idea of recent trends to spot decline.

 

But sometimes OPS just don’t tell the whole Story Story. Sure his numbers dropped, but in some cases, for whatever reason, the whole league’s did. And he did have a significant home field change in there.

 

If you look at OPS+

 

2019 - 120

2020 - 120

2021 - 102

2022 - 102

 

It’s less of a steady trend, but it does show a difference…

Edited November 28, 2022 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I like the idea of recent trends to spot decline.

 

But sometimes OPS just don’t tell the whole Story Story. Sure his numbers dropped, but in some cases, for whatever reason, the whole league’s did. And he did have a significant home field change in there.

 

If you look at OPS+

 

2019 - 120

2020 - 120

2021 - 102

2022 - 102

 

Based on that sequence, his OPS+ for 2023 and 2024 should be 84.

[notin]

Based on that sequence, his OPS+ for 2023 and 2024 should be 84.

 

You’re assuming a linear drop. Are you sure it’s not a sinusoidal wave?

[mvp 78]

Based on that sequence, his OPS+ for 2023 and 2024 should be 84.

 

Not 012?

[notin]

Not 012?

 

Not 210?

[mvp 78]

Not 210?

 

Could be either.

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth...

 

Story's Away OPS+ since 2019

 

105 ('19)

119 (short 2020 season)

100 ('21)

86 ('22)

[jacksonianmarch]

Market for 26 yr old All Star 3b’s hitting the market was set by Machado at $300 mil and 10 years. He will want to break that and he should

[notin]

Market for 26 yr old All Star 3b’s hitting the market was set by Machado at $300 mil and 10 years. He will want to break that and he should

 

Should he break it?

 

After his age 25 season, Machado was worth 30.1 fWAR/34.6 bWAR. At the same age, Devers is worth 18.1 fWAR/15.2 bWAR.

 

Is he really a better player who deserves to break that?

[jacksonianmarch]

Should he break it?

 

After his age 25 season, Machado was worth 30.1 fWAR/34.6 bWAR. At the same age, Devers is worth 18.1 fWAR/15.2 bWAR.

 

Is he really a better player who deserves to break that?

 

Devers sucked early while Machado didn’t. Devers most recent is akin to Machado’s offensive production.

[notin]

Devers sucked early while Machado didn’t. Devers most recent is akin to Machado’s offensive production.

 

But even last year, Machado was worth 7.0 fWAR/6.8 bWAR, while Devers was worth 4.9 fWAR/4.4 bWAR.

 

Machado is a better all around player due to his vastly superior defense. And nothing else.

 

In fact, Devers OPS+ through his age 22 season was 116, which is better than Machado’s at the same age (114). No truth to Devers “sucked early on”…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But even last year, Machado was worth 7.0 fWAR/6.8 bWAR, while Devers was worth 4.9 fWAR/4.4 bWAR.

 

Machado is a better all around player due to his vastly superior defense. And nothing else.

 

In fact, Devers OPS+ through his age 22 season was 116, which is better than Machado’s at the same age (114). No truth to Devers “sucked early on”…

 

Never with the bat: literally made Yankee fans cry at the Stadium at age 20 and then had a game-winning pinch hit in the World Series the next year.

 

It was always the D in doubt for Devers at third. Machado was the shortstop for the losers in that 2018 World Series.

[notin]

Never with the bat: literally made Yankee fans cry at the Stadium at age 20 and then had a game-winning pinch hit in the World Series the next year.

 

It was always the D in doubt for Devers at third. Machado was the shortstop for the losers in that 2018 World Series.

 

 

The real argument is - is Devers a $300mill player by today’s standards?

 

Austin Riley says no. Arguments can be made for and against comparing him to Rendon, most of which hinge on Rendon also being vastly superior defensively.

 

As he’s just 26, I’m fine with the 10 year deal. The real issue is - Devers has no real reason to rush into anything…

[jacksonianmarch]

He will get a 10-300 deal at minimum. His combo of age and elite offensive skill will get what he wants

[moonslav59]

He will get a 10-300 deal at minimum. His combo of age and elite offensive skill will get what he wants

 

Hardly anyone gets what their first number put out is.