How much would you offer Devers?

[Hugh2]

The poll is flawed because the AAV range stays the same while the years change. If a player is taking less years he's likely demanding more AAV.

[mvp 78]

The poll is flawed because the AAV range stays the same while the years change. If a player is taking less years he's likely demanding more AAV.

 

The poll is closed. You can answer however you want.

 

I just didn't want the Devers updates to get constantly buried in the only two posts that are posted to in the offseason.

[moonslav59]

$26M x 10 would be a contract I'd be happy with. $28M x 10 would be okay. $30M x 10 would probably be too much, but I'd do it.

 

Devers is special.

 

Devers Forevers!

 

[Hugh2]

I know this is the opposite of the trend but given Devers young age and my faith in his ability to hit well into his 30s I’d give him his 300 if he’d take it in 12. I’d even have it kick in this year and lower the AAV.

 

Sox would have the money still to go out and sign Senga + another #2#3 type, Correa, Conforto, and a reliever.

 

That’s my dream off-season. I wouldn’t hate a Bogey reunion as well.

[moonslav59]

I know this is the opposite of the trend but given Devers young age and my faith in his ability to hit well into his 30s I’d give him his 300 if he’d take it in 12. I’d even have it kick in this year and lower the AAV.

 

Sox would have the money still to go out and sign Senga + another #2#3 type, Correa, Conforto, and a reliever.

 

That’s my dream off-season. I wouldn’t hate a Bogey reunion as well.

 

I've suggested this type of contract maneuver, before. I'd rather have Devers at $26M x 12 than $30M x 10.

[mvp 78]

He’s gonna reset the market. You guys are WAY too low. Last time a player this young and this good hit the market, Machado and Harper found their homes for $300 mil plus. Devers is gonna shatter that. Someone is gonna give him 12 years $360 mil.

 

We'll have to see if our guess are right or if jacko's was.

[moonslav59]

We'll have to see if our guess are right or if jacko's was.

 

If he has a good season, in 2023, I could see him getting $330/12- maybe $340.

[mvp 78]

If he has a good season, in 2023, I could see him getting $330/12- maybe $340.

 

What's a "good" season?

 

5 fWAR? Higher?

 

Arenado opted into 5X30 after having a 7 fWAR season. He's older, but he's been the mark of consistency.

 

2015-19 5.9 - 6.5 fWAR

2022 7.3 fWAR

[redsoxrules]

@BeyondtheMnstr

Jon Heyman of the New York Post says that the Boston Red Sox have offered All-Star third baseman Rafael Devers “$220M or so.”

 

Heyman says there’s optimism that both sides can bridge the gap and come to an agreement on a deal.

 

That's a very fair offer. Devers is no Arenado or Machado. I wouldn't go too much higher than that. His defense is suspect and he's no speedster around the basepaths.

[Hugh2]

That's a very fair offer. Devers is no Arenado or Machado. I wouldn't go too much higher than that. His defense is suspect and he's no speedster around the basepaths.

 

Arena do got 275 at two years older than Devers. Devers is 26 and going to FA 4 years later. It’s not unreasonable for him to expect something around 275 million himself.

 

That actually seems like a decent meeting point for both sides. 275/10 might work for both. Add in this years arb and make it 11/293

[mvp 78]

That's a very fair offer. Devers is no Arenado or Machado. I wouldn't go too much higher than that. His defense is suspect and he's no speedster around the basepaths.

 

It's 220, but we don't know the years mentioned.

 

220/8

220/10

 

I'm not sure Devers signs for that until he tests the market.

[mvp 78]

Arena do got 275 at two years older than Devers. Devers is 26 and going to FA 4 years later. It’s not unreasonable for him to expect something around 275 million himself.

 

That actually seems like a decent meeting point for both sides. 275/10 might work for both. Add in this years arb and make it 11/293

 

I'm fine with it.

[Hugh2]

I'm fine with it.

 

I just read over at Soxprospects that they’re only 50 million apart.

 

Now I must research to see if this is based off of any actual reporting/credible sources or if it’s just some guy posting.

 

If that’s the gap, I think it’s more probable than not they get a deal done.

[moonslav59]

What's a "good" season?

 

5 fWAR? Higher?

 

Arenado opted into 5X30 after having a 7 fWAR season. He's older, but he's been the mark of consistency.

 

2015-19 5.9 - 6.5 fWAR

2022 7.3 fWAR

 

5.5-7.5 fWAR

[Hugh2]

Source was Marino Pepen on IG. I don’t follow him so I don’t know how reliable he is.

 

But If the difference is truly 50 million it’s hard to see them not reaching an agreement

[notin]

Source was Marino Pepen on IG. I don’t follow him so I don’t know how reliable he is.

 

But If the difference is truly 50 million it’s hard to see them not reaching an agreement

 

Sox go up $25mill. Devers comes down the same. Then slap a signature on it and carve up that Cookie Puss!!

[mvp 78]

I just read over at Soxprospects that they’re only 50 million apart.

 

Now I must research to see if this is based off of any actual reporting/credible sources or if it’s just some guy posting.

 

If that’s the gap, I think it’s more probable than not they get a deal done.

 

That's 50M before he gets his gas bill this winter... The ask will probably go up.

 

I'm not sure how they know what Raffy would actually take.

[mvp 78]

Sox go up $25mill. Devers comes down the same. Then slap a signature on it and carve up that Cookie Puss!!

 

Cake time.

[Hugh2]

That's 50M before he gets his gas bill this winter... The ask will probably go up.

 

I'm not sure how they know what Raffy would actually take.

 

We only hear what’s reported, not what isn’t. I’m sure Devers side gave them a “buy now” price. The question is how much they’re willing to negotiate before they say “f*** it, well go to FA”

[Deja Doh]

He's a good player, not great. He's sort of like Jose Ramirez at Cleveland. He's not Nolan Arenado. I think Austin Riley may have a higher ceiling. I'd prefer Judge than Raffi, Xander to Raffi.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's a good player, not great. He's sort of like Jose Ramirez at Cleveland. He's not Nolan Arenado. I think Austin Riley may have a higher ceiling. I'd prefer Judge than Raffi, Xander to Raffi.

 

But is Devers better than Trevor Story, who Boston has already committed to paying $25 million to when he's 34 years old?

 

If so, Raffy -- who is only 26 -- is at least worth more than the $225M "ballpark" offer the Sox are currently floating (according to industry reports on the world wide web).

[Hugh2]

They will probably settle somewhere around 275/10 for Raffy. Take off a few years and increase the AAV if you will. That's my prediction. The number could be much larger or front loaded and offer him an opt-out after 3-4 years as well. Which I wouldn't hate, because at the very least we'd get him for 2-3 more years in his prime and not have to worry about the back end of that contract.

[notin]

But is Devers better than Trevor Story, who Boston has already committed to paying $25 million to when he's 34 years old?

 

If so, Raffy -- who is only 26 -- is at least worth more than the $225M "ballpark" offer the Sox are currently floating (according to industry reports on the world wide web).

 

 

But is he worth the $300mill he reported wants?

[Bellhorn04]

But is he worth the $300mill he reported wants?

 

Of course not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But is he worth the $300mill he reported wants?

 

I won't discuss John Henry's money, only what I'm willing to pay: maybe once a year I'll splurge for a $12 can of beer and 50 bucks for parking to see Raffy in person. But my cable bill will probably equate to about $300mil in the next decade, so what the hell.

[Hugh2]

300 million over 10 years would mean he would have to be worth about 5 WAR per year. By the end of his contract that might be closer to 2.5 WAR the way inflation is going to the past decade. No he's actually only eclipsed 5 WAR once in his career, but given his age and offensive potential, his best offensive years are likely in front of him. He might easily put up a few 7+ WAR seasons in his prime. Devers could be worth that, he's just 26 now and will be 26 for all of next season. People forgot how young he is, if you like age projections then it's conceivable that he's going to get better and better.

[Bellhorn04]

300 million over 10 years would mean he would have to be worth about 5 WAR per year. By the end of his contract that might be closer to 2.5 WAR the way inflation is going to the past decade. No he's actually only eclipsed 5 WAR once in his career, but given his age and offensive potential, his best offensive years are likely in front of him. He might easily put up a few 7+ WAR seasons in his prime. Devers could be worth that, he's just 26 now and will be 26 for all of next season. People forgot how young he is, if you like age projections then it's conceivable that he's going to get better and better.

 

But his projected 2023 WAR is 4.8. Which probably has something to do with the fact that 2019 is still his best season.

 

I love the guy and want him signed, but I think we have to be realistic about how good he's going to be. Plus he had some hamstring issues this year that impacted him for quite a while. Baseball is hard on the body.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But his projected 2023 WAR is 4.8. Which probably has something to do with the fact that 2019 is still his best season.

 

I love the guy and want him signed, but I think we have to be realistic about how good he's going to be. Plus he had some hamstring issues this year that impacted him for quite a while. Baseball is hard on the body.

 

All legit concerns. Should we really be asking if he's worth $60M AAV for five years, since teams know they're effectively paying for only the first half of a decade-long contract? Do you think front offices assume this and have some formula to factor in projected WAR, team wins, gate/TV profits, etc. to calculate some ceiling of investment?

 

If not, let's make one up so Henry will hire us like he did Bill James and Chaim Bloom, who both got started typing blab on similar platforms.

[mvp 78]

He's a good player, not great. He's sort of like Jose Ramirez at Cleveland. He's not Nolan Arenado. I think Austin Riley may have a higher ceiling. I'd prefer Judge than Raffi, Xander to Raffi.

 

Career:

Ramirez 41.2 fWAR

Arenado 45.7 fWAR (1000 extra PA's from 2013-15)

 

Since 2016:

Ramirez 39.5 fWAR

Arenado 36.8 fWAR

[mvp 78]

But is Devers better than Trevor Story, who Boston has already committed to paying $25 million to when he's 34 years old?

 

If so, Raffy -- who is only 26 -- is at least worth more than the $225M "ballpark" offer the Sox are currently floating (according to industry reports on the world wide web).

 

Raffy is better than Story simply because of how good his bat is. I think he has a generational bat.