How much would you offer Devers?

[moonslav59]

Suzuki trailed off after a torrid start, but was still a 2 fWAR player. He would have been a good signing at a position they still have a big hole to fill.

 

I'd much rather have seen us sign Suzuki than trade for JBJ, especially knowing we were going over the tax line, anyway.

 

That being said, I like the Story signing more.

[mvp 78]

I'd much rather have seen us sign Suzuki than trade for JBJ, especially knowing we were going over the tax line, anyway.

 

That being said, I like the Story signing more.

 

If they signed Suzuki, they'd have two holes to fill: 2B and SS. Instead, they have two holes to fill: RF and SS.

 

Story: 6/140, 2 years older, better defense

Suzuki: 5/85, 2 years younger, better offense

[Hugh2]

If they signed Suzuki, they'd have two holes to fill: 2B and SS. Instead, they have two holes to fill: RF and SS.

 

Story: 6/140, 2 years older, better defense

Suzuki: 5/85, 2 years younger, better offense

 

Is it really fair to say Suzuki is a better offensive player? His .770 to .740 OPS is better but not significantly better and it was during a down year for Story. I expect Story to bounce back.

[notin]

I'd much rather have seen us sign Suzuki than trade for JBJ, especially knowing we were going over the tax line, anyway.

 

That being said, I like the Story signing more.

 

They had already traded for JBJ.

 

Signing Suzuki likely meant Suzuki in RF, JBJ in CF and Kike at 2b. And no Story…

[mvp 78]

Is it really fair to say Suzuki is a better offensive player? His .770 to .740 OPS is better but not significantly better and it was during a down year for Story. I expect Story to bounce back.

 

Yes. Suzuki was a much more consistent hitter and didn't go into extended slumps. Better k% and bb%.

 

Story was great in May, but underperformed the rest of the year.

 

For 2022, Suzuki was the better offensive player. What will Story's career look like post-Coors? We only have 2022 to judge so far.

[mvp 78]

They had already traded for JBJ.

 

Signing Suzuki likely meant Suzuki in RF, JBJ in CF and Kike at 2b. And no Story…

 

Sox would have been 6M closer to getting under the lux cap at the trade deadline.

[Hugh2]

Yes. Suzuki was a much more consistent hitter and didn't go into extended slumps. Better k% and bb%.

 

Story was great in May, but underperformed the rest of the year.

 

For 2022, Suzuki was the better offensive player. What will Story's career look like post-Coors? We only have 2022 to judge so far.

 

Most hitters perform better at home, Coor or not. Before the signing Story and Bogaerts had identical Away OPS. Actually Story had a great OPS at Fenway, his decline in offensive production was away from Fenway and was statistically much worse than it was away from COORS. Heavily suggesting his offensive slump was all about the injury he suffered in 2022.

 

Also, despite all that he put up a 1.9 OWar vs. 2.3 for Suzuki. In a down year, with less at bats, Story was marginally worse on Offensive.

 

The only caveat here, is that in his sophomore season Suzuki progresses and the bat gets much better. But I'd bank on both of them having a better offensive season but still....Give me the bounce back from Story with better defense at a premium position.

[mvp 78]

Most hitters perform better at home, Coor or not. Before the signing Story and Bogaerts had identical Away OPS. Actually Story had a great OPS at Fenway, his decline in offensive production was away from Fenway and was statistically much worse than it was away from COORS. Heavily suggesting his offensive slump was all about the injury he suffered in 2022.

 

Also, despite all that he put up a 1.9 OWar vs. 2.3 for Suzuki. In a down year, with less at bats, Story was marginally worse on Offensive.

 

The only caveat here, is that in his sophomore season Suzuki progresses and the bat gets much better. But I'd bank on both of them having a better offensive season but still....Give me the bounce back from Story with better defense at a premium position.

 

Was Story injured at the start of the season? I don't remember. His OPS was below 600 in April.

[Hugh2]

Was Story injured at the start of the season? I don't remember. His OPS was below 600 in April.

 

Yeah but come on, one month when it's cold and on a new team? are we suggesting he's that bad and actually got better when he was hurt?

 

We have every reason, outside of more injuries that Story is not going to bounce back and be a great player.

[mvp 78]

Yeah but come on, one month when it's cold and on a new team? are we suggesting he's that bad and actually got better when he was hurt?

 

We have every reason, outside of more injuries that Story is not going to bounce back and be a great player.

 

I think it's fair to say that I need to see it first. As of today, Suzuki is the better offensive player and Story is the better defensive player.

[moonslav59]

Was Story injured at the start of the season? I don't remember. His OPS was below 600 in April.

 

His late signing and spring training playing time did have him start the season by not playing everyday, until the second week of the season.

 

Not making excuses. He was inconsistent in 2022, even when healthy.

[moonslav59]

I think it's fair to say that I need to see it first. As of today, Suzuki is the better offensive player and Story is the better defensive player.

 

Based on just 2022, I assume.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah but come on, one month when it's cold and on a new team? are we suggesting he's that bad and actually got better when he was hurt?

 

We have every reason, outside of more injuries that Story is not going to bounce back and be a great player.

 

I've just never before seen a batter point the barrel of his bat over his shoulder down at the ground, and when he continually couldn't get it into the hitting zone on time, not adjust his stance.

 

Maybe it was easier to whip it up in the thin air at Coors Field... or maybe the new hitting coach was afraid to suggest a change to the new superstar?

 

To Story's credit, when he returned from injury at the end of the summer, he finally altered his approach and looked improved.

[Hugh2]

I've just never before seen a batter point the barrel of his bat over his shoulder down at the ground, and when he continually couldn't get it into the hitting zone on time, not adjust his stance.

 

Maybe it was easier to whip it up in the thin air at Coors Field... or maybe the new hitting coach was afraid to suggest a change to the new superstar?

 

To Story's credit, when he returned from injury at the end of the summer, he finally altered his approach and looked improved.

 

He had an .848 OPS at Fenway, but he stunk away from home, when he played in Colorado he also had to play outside Coloroda during "away" games.

[Hugh2]

I think it's fair to say that I need to see it first. As of today, Suzuki is the better offensive player and Story is the better defensive player.

 

If given a full bill of health, who do you think is the better overall player, and who will put up a better WAR in 2023?

[Hugh2]

His late signing and spring training playing time did have him start the season by not playing everyday, until the second week of the season.

 

Not making excuses. He was inconsistent in 2022, even when healthy.

 

Assuming massive regression from Story 2022 is a relevant sample size, outside of that STory is clearly the better offensive player. If Storys regression is injury, and it appears so, then given a clean bill of health I think it's good bet Story is a better offensive player in 2023......given a clean bill of health that is. That is never a certainty.

[moonslav59]

Assuming massive regression from Story 2022 is a relevant sample size, outside of that STory is clearly the better offensive player. If Storys regression is injury, and it appears so, then given a clean bill of health I think it's good bet Story is a better offensive player in 2023......given a clean bill of health that is. That is never a certainty.

 

Agreed, and my guess is all the ZIPs and other predicting services with give Story better O numbers, too, not just overall WAR, and for good reason.

[mvp 78]

I've just never before seen a batter point the barrel of his bat over his shoulder down at the ground, and when he continually couldn't get it into the hitting zone on time, not adjust his stance.

 

Maybe it was easier to whip it up in the thin air at Coors Field... or maybe the new hitting coach was afraid to suggest a change to the new superstar?

 

To Story's credit, when he returned from injury at the end of the summer, he finally altered his approach and looked improved.

 

It wasn't just "one month."

 

April 596

May 841

June 678

July 659

 

Unless you mean the "just one month" was the one month he was really good?

[mvp 78]

If given a full bill of health, who do you think is the better overall player, and who will put up a better WAR in 2023?

 

Probably Suzuki and I'm not alone on this island.

 

Projections for 2023:

 

Suzuki FGDC/Steamer 3.4/3.5

Story FGDC/Steamer 2.9/2.9

 

Add to that the longer contract with the higher AAV...

[Hugh2]

It wasn't just "one month."

 

April 596

May 841

June 678

July 659

 

Unless you mean the "just one month" was the one month he was really good?

 

We know he had a wrist injury mid July, at that point after his slow start for two months he put up a .516 SLG% we all know how wrist injuries can sideline an offensive player. Story is a premium offensive player, and if the wrist is fine and he stays healthy he's going to be an above .800 OPS guy. I'd bet on it if he puts up over 500 PAs

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and my guess is all the ZIPs and other predicting services with give Story better O numbers, too, not just overall WAR, and for good reason.

 

You forgot to put that in green.

[mvp 78]

We know he had a wrist injury mid July, at that point after his slow start for two months he put up a .516 SLG% we all know how wrist injuries can sideline an offensive player. Story is a premium offensive player, and if the wrist is fine and he stays healthy he's going to be an above .800 OPS guy. I'd bet on it if he puts up over 500 PAs

 

He came back from the wrist injury and put up 889 OPS, but then missed the last few weeks due to another injury.

[Hugh2]

Probably Suzuki and I'm not alone on this island.

 

Projections for 2023:

 

Suzuki FGDC/Steamer 3.4/3.5

Story FGDC/Steamer 2.9/2.9

 

Add to that the longer contract with the higher AAV...

 

Ok, they Project Story to have about 3 WAR, but if he hits for his career averages he will easily eclipse that. The lowest WAR he ever had in a season he stayed healthy was 2.6 and he was 24 in a sophomore slump, very easy to believe if he puts up 500 plate appearances he will put up a War of 4+. I would like to see how those projections are made and how much of them are weighing an injury-plagued season. Why should I believe he can only put up .4 more WAR if he's playing significantly more games? Those projections heavily weigh last season. An injury-plagued season were he put up a career-worse .738 OPS and they project him to put up one more point at .739 but with 649 plate appearances. There's some serious flaw there.

[moonslav59]

You forgot to put that in green.

 

I may end up being wrong, but it wasn't sarcasm.

[Hugh2]

He came back from the wrist injury and put up 889 OPS, but then missed the last few weeks due to another injury.

 

So then you will agree, if he's healthy he's a much better offensive player.

[mvp 78]

Ok, they Project Story to have about 3 WAR, but if he hits for his career averages he will easily eclipse that. The lowest WAR he ever had in a season he stayed healthy was 2.6 and he was 24 in a sophomore slump, very easy to believe if he puts up 500 plate appearances he will put up a War of 4+. I would like to see how those projections are made and how much of them are weighing an injury-plagued season. Why should I believe he can only put up .4 more WAR if he's playing significantly more games? Those projections heavily weigh last season. An injury-plagued season were he put up a career-worse .738 OPS and they project him to put up one more point at .739 but with 649 plate appearances. There's some serious flaw there.

 

They are not infallible. Will he really only OPS 738? Seems a little light to me.

[mvp 78]

So then you will agree, if he's healthy he's a much better offensive player.

 

It was a very small sample and I'm not sold that he would do that over 150 games. Would you agree that since he was injured a lot last season that he's likely to be injured a lot this season? He should be "better" but it's not a guarantee. Like I said, he has to show it to me first. As of now, he's just the 2022 guy. I can't assume a bounce back season for a 30 year old guy who left Coors, got injured a few times and generally underperformed except for defense.

 

If his arm was good enough to play SS, I'd be less worried about him.

[mvp 78]

I may end up being wrong, but it wasn't sarcasm.

 

It was a joke because you said "my guess is all the ZIPs and other predicting services with give Story better O numbers, too" when Steamer basically projected him to be as mediocre as last year.

[Hugh2]

It was a very small sample and I'm not sold that he would do that over 150 games. Would you agree that since he was injured a lot last season that he's likely to be injured a lot this season? He should be "better" but it's not a guarantee. Like I said, he has to show it to me first. As of now, he's just the 2022 guy. I can't assume a bounce back season for a 30 year old guy who left Coors, got injured a few times and generally underperformed except for defense.

 

If his arm was good enough to play SS, I'd be less worried about him.

 

So is one season of underperformance that seems to mostly be tied into injury. The larger un-injured sample size equals an offensive player much better than Suzuki.

[Hugh2]

It was a very small sample and I'm not sold that he would do that over 150 games. Would you agree that since he was injured a lot last season that he's likely to be injured a lot this season? He should be "better" but it's not a guarantee. Like I said, he has to show it to me first. As of now, he's just the 2022 guy. I can't assume a bounce back season for a 30 year old guy who left Coors, got injured a few times and generally underperformed except for defense.

 

If his arm was good enough to play SS, I'd be less worried about him.

 

The Coors field making him a great offensive player thing has been debunked. Most players are better at home, he was no worse than Bogey away from Coors.....is Bogey not a good offensive player and not as good as Suzuki? should we not be resigning him?