A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

Yolmer Sanchez DFA'd. (He can reject a transfer to the minors.)

 

Kike and Refsnyder were activated.

 

[moonslav59]

With Kike and Refsnyder now on the 26, Wacha and others back, Hosmer, Pham and McGuire added, we look like a different team than a couple weeks ago.

 

Others still out hurt:

 

Story: will apparently travel with Sox to Pittsburgh.

Houck: receiving treatment for back

Strahm: begins rehab, this week.

Danish: begins rehab Wednesday

Bello: will have a rehab start on Sunday

Paxton: should begin rehab assignment, soon.

Taylor: rehab shut down

Sale: toast

 

If Story, Houck and Strahm join the 26 man roster, soon, I'm assuming Duran or Dalbec get sent down for Story and Wink and Familia (DFA?) for Houck & Strahm.

 

This would leave this line-up:

 

1. Pham LF

2. Devers 3B

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Story 2B

6. Verdugo RF

7. Kike CF

8. Hosmer 1B

9. Plawecki/McGuire C

Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, McGuire/Plawecki, Dalbec or Duran

 

SP1 Wacha

SP2 Nate

SP3 Pivetta

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Hill

 

Closer: Houck

RP2: Whitlock

RP3: Schreiber

RP4: Brasier

RP5: Strahm

RP6: Sawamura

RP7: Davis

RP8: Barnes/Winckowski/Familia

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

With Kike and Refsnyder now on the 26, Wacha and others back, Hosmer, Pham and McGuire added, we look like a different team than a couple weeks ago.

 

Others still out hurt:

 

Story: will apparently travel with Sox to Pittsburgh.

Strahm: begins rehab, this week.

Danish: begins rehab Wednesday

Bello: will have a rehab start on Sunday

Paxton: should begin rehab assignment, soon.

Taylor: rehab shut down

Sale: toast

Danish will be back up for a cup of coffee in September.

[notin]

Danish will be back up for a cup of coffee in September.

 

You can do a lot of jokes with that name

[oldtimer]

With Kike and Refsnyder now on the 26, Wacha and others back, Hosmer, Pham and McGuire added, we look like a different team than a couple weeks ago.

 

Others still out hurt:

 

Story: will apparently travel with Sox to Pittsburgh.

Houck: receiving treatment for back

Strahm: begins rehab, this week.

Danish: begins rehab Wednesday

Bello: will have a rehab start on Sunday

Paxton: should begin rehab assignment, soon.

Taylor: rehab shut down

Sale: toast

 

If Story, Houck and Strahm join the 26 man roster, soon, I'm assuming Duran or Dalbec get sent down for Story and Wink and Familia (DFA?) for Houck & Strahm.

 

This would leave this line-up:

 

1. Pham LF

2. Devers 3B

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Story 2B

6. Verdugo RF

7. Kike CF

8. Hosmer 1B

9. Plawecki/McGuire C

Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, McGuire/Plawecki, Dalbec or Duran

 

SP1 Wacha

SP2 Nate

SP3 Pivetta

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Hill

 

Closer: Houck

RP2: Whitlock

RP3: Schreiber

RP4: Brasier

RP5: Strahm

RP6: Sawamura

RP7: Davis

RP8: Barnes/Winckowski/Familia

 

 

I assume it's Duran to be sent down since we will have a replacement utility outfielder in Refsnyder, although if we send Dalbec down then we don't have a replacement 1st baseman. I guess it's anyone's guess. Duran has had a few well hit balls caught of late and has been unlucky. Maybe it will depend of which player (if either) they think has the best chance of making the roster in 2023

[notin]

I assume it's Duran to be sent down since we will have a replacement utility outfielder in Refsnyder, although if we send Dalbec down then we don't have a replacement 1st baseman. I guess it's anyone's guess. Duran has had a few well hit balls caught of late and has been unlucky. Maybe it will depend of which player (if either) they think has the best chance of making the roster in 2023

 

Demote Duran…

[notin]

With Kike and Refsnyder now on the 26, Wacha and others back, Hosmer, Pham and McGuire added, we look like a different team than a couple weeks ago.

 

Others still out hurt:

 

Story: will apparently travel with Sox to Pittsburgh.

Houck: receiving treatment for back

Strahm: begins rehab, this week.

Danish: begins rehab Wednesday

Bello: will have a rehab start on Sunday

Paxton: should begin rehab assignment, soon.

Taylor: rehab shut down

Sale: toast

 

If Story, Houck and Strahm join the 26 man roster, soon, I'm assuming Duran or Dalbec get sent down for Story and Wink and Familia (DFA?) for Houck & Strahm.

 

This would leave this line-up:

 

1. Pham LF

2. Devers 3B

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Story 2B

6. Verdugo RF

7. Kike CF

8. Hosmer 1B

9. Plawecki/McGuire C

Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, McGuire/Plawecki, Dalbec or Duran

 

SP1 Wacha

SP2 Nate

SP3 Pivetta

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Hill

 

Closer: Houck

RP2: Whitlock

RP3: Schreiber

RP4: Brasier

RP5: Strahm

RP6: Sawamura

RP7: Davis

RP8: Barnes/Winckowski/Familia

 

 

Why demote Winckowski and keep Austin Davis?

 

I know why they’d do it - depth. It allows them to keep both. But is Davis really that tough to replace?

[moonslav59]

Why demote Winckowski and keep Austin Davis?

 

I know why they’d do it - depth. It allows them to keep both. But is Davis really that tough to replace?

 

No, and he's been struggling, lately, but Wink has kind of been getting by on smoke and mirrors.

[moonslav59]

How about the O's being just a half game behind the Jays? (1.5 behind the Rays!)

 

The Rays are 8 down on the yanks in the L column.

 

Lots of baseball left!

[Old Red]

How about the O's being just a half game behind the Jays? (1.5 behind the Rays!)

 

The Rays are 8 down on the yanks in the L column.

 

Lots of baseball left!

 

After Pittsburg the Red Sox play the next 12 games against teams in Wild Card contention with 9 against Div teams. Anything less than 8-4, and season is over, and I don’t see the Red Sox going on any kind of run unless all of a sudden the bats come alive.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Old Red

[Hugh2]

Free agents I think the Sox should at least look at:

 

Catcher:

 

Christian Vazquez

Wilson Contreras

 

SS:

 

Carlos Correa

Xander Bogaerts

Dansby Swanson

Trea Turner

Jose Iglesias

 

 

OF:

 

Brandon Nimmo

Aaron Judge

Mitch Haniger

Joey Gallo

 

SP:

 

Carlos Rodon

Noah Syndergaard (if healthy maybe he takes a short-term deal to rebuild his value)

Aaron Nola

Clayton Kershaw

Jacob DeGrom

 

I think the Sox should explore the trade market for either a SP1 SP2 as well.

[Hugh2]

No particular order above ^^^ Would love to hear other suggestions.

[notin]

No particular order above ^^^ Would love to hear other suggestions.

 

Kolten Wong (2b). Best defensive 2b in MLB by any metric you like. Career .340-.350 OBP is not ideal for the Sox missing leadoff spot, but he’s the most qualified candidate. This assumes Bogaerts departs (which will happen).

 

Enrique Hernandez - He really is a top tier defensive CF, and the upgrade from Duran to Hernandez is akin to upgrading from a horse to a spaceship. Also, he’s been clearly willing to take a two year deal in the past.

 

RP’s Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, Rafael Montero, Blake Treinen. Screw SP. The Sox should have Sale-Paxton-Pivetta-Crawford-Winckowski. They’ll have Mata and Bello for call up depth (and they’ll need more). But the bullpen needs help. Houck, Whitlock (who also might start), Schreiber, and maybe Barnes and/or Brasier need more support. Fulmer and Treinen (as closer?) certainly add some serious length between the top three (two?) and Barnes. Givens and the very underrated Montero just make this pen better….

Edited August 17, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

No particular order above ^^^ Would love to hear other suggestions.

 

I'm with notin on K Wong, or I'd go with Swanson and leave Story at 2B.

 

I like the idea of bringing Kike back. His offense is better than it has been, this year, and his D is top notch. I like Haniger for RF, but I think CF id a higher need, and I doubt we add 2 big OF names.

 

I'm not for spending real big on RP'ers, and I think some of notin's suggestions will not cost real big.

 

I might pass on adding a catcher, if we upgrade significantly, elsewhere, or I might go for Narvaez, if the cost is not too great- assuming he's good with the staff.

 

I do not add at 1B.

 

I'd try to bring Wacha back, maybe even with a QO.

[Maxbialystock]

Just because there was one series, where our pen sucked, but did not blow any games, doesn't mean a closer is not important or very important.

 

Maybe others are blowing the closer impact out of proportion does not mean undervaluing the role is the right position to hold.

 

I think you have missed a key point. I love great closers, Uehara especially--definitely one of my heroes. All four of the Sox WS teams had good to great closers even though Kimbrel actually stunk in the 2018 postseason (but was terrific in the regular season).

 

My argument is that it's nuts to worry about finding and using a really good closer when your rotation and the rest of bullpen basically stink. To get good value from a good closer, a manager needs a rotation and bullpen that can get you to the 9th freaking inning.

 

This year I think Houck, Schreiber, and Whitlock have all shown the ability to be good closers. However, Schreiber was a gamble when he arrived with his career ERA over 6. And Houck and Whitlock were needed to pitch multiple innings and in fact to start now and then. This didn't happen because Cora is a candidate for dodo bird of the year/century, but because the Sox pitching overall this season is the worst in the John Henry era.

 

Early in the movie Master and Commander Far Side of the World, the captain misuses his crew. He doesn't let them sail the ship or man the guns or prepare to board the enemy French ship because what he really needs to do his get his ship into a fog bank. So he puts his crew into rowboats and they tug the ship (with its broken rudder) into the fog bank so they can live to fight another day--which they do, eventually, after extensive repairs from the fires of the French ship.

 

I think Cora has been managing a similar problem this season and has had to improvise a ton. Forget the pitching and look at the jerkballs he's had to put at first base and in the outfield. As for the pitching, he's used what seems like at least 100 starters and his relievers include two position players. JDM has disappeared, and Devers and Bogey and trying to follow him down the same rat hole. Story, whom nobody likes anyway but has driven in a lot of runs and played terrific 2b, has been on the IL forever (it seems).

 

And last night against the Pirates, whose pitching (ERA 4.62) is even worse than ours (ERA 4.34), the new lineup got 5 pissy-ass singles, 2 of which were dropped by the Pirates fielders. Despite such rotten hitting, the Sox got 4 runs in the 1st and another in the 2d for 5-0, which was sustained by Pivetta who pitched 7 scoreless innings. Then in came Davis who did his level best to give the game back to the Pirates. So Schreiber comes in with the the bases loaded and no one out and gets the first guy out before giving up a base-clearing double--followed by the 3d out and the score now 5-3.

 

And who closes with a one two three inning and two K's? Mr Pariah himself, Barnes. If this game had been played at Fenway, he would have been booed by the home crowd. He was definitely booed on the game thread.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

This year I think Houck, Schreiber, and Whitlock have all shown the ability to be good closers. However, Schreiber was a gamble when he arrived with his career ERA over 6. And Houck and Whitlock were needed to pitch multiple innings and in fact to start now and then. This didn't not happen because Cora is a candidate for dodo bird of the year/century, but because the Sox pitching overall this season is the worst in the John Henry era.

 

By what metric is it the worst? I think 2012 was the worst. We won't count 2020.

[moonslav59]

I think you have missed a key point. I love great closers, Uehara especially--definitely one of my heroes. All four of the Sox WS teams had good to great closers even though Kimbrel actually stunk in the 2018 postseason (but was terrific in the regular season).

 

My argument is that it's nuts to worry about finding and using a really good closer when your rotation and the rest of bullpen basically stink. To get good value from a good closer, a manager needs a rotation and bullpen that can get you to the 9th freaking inning.

 

This year I think Houck, Schreiber, and Whitlock have all shown the ability to be good closers. However, Schreiber was a gamble when he arrived with his career ERA over 6. And Houck and Whitlock were needed to pitch multiple innings and in fact to start now and then. This didn't happen because Cora is a candidate for dodo bird of the year/century, but because the Sox pitching overall this season is the worst in the John Henry era.

 

Early in the movie Master and Commander Far Side of the World, the captain misuses his crew. He doesn't let them sail the ship or man the guns or prepare to board the enemy French ship because what he really needs to do his get his ship into a fog bank. So he puts his crew into rowboats and they tug the ship (with its broken rudder) into the fog bank so they can live to fight another day and after extensive repairs from the fires of the French ship.

 

I think Cora has been managing a similar problem this season and has had to improvise a ton. Forget the pitching and look at the jerkballs he's had to put at first base and in the outfield.

 

And last night against Pirates, whose pitching (ERA 4.62) is even worse than ours (ERA 4.34), the new lineup got 5 pissy-ass singles, 2 of which were dropped by the Pirates fielders. Despite such written hitting, the Sox got 4 runs in the 1st and another in the 2d for 5-0, which was sustained by Pivetta who pitched 7 scoreless innings. Then in came Davis who did his level best to give the game back to the Pirates. So Schreiber comes in the the bases loaded and no one out and gets the first guy out before giving up a base-clearing double--followed by the 3d out and the score now 5-3.

 

And who closes with a one two three inning and two K's. Mr Pariah himself, Barnes. If this game had been played at Fenway, he would have been booed by the home crowd.

 

It might be "nuts" to just focus on the closer, when so many other things are not going well, but when your closer sucks, I think it's fair to say so, and offer suggestions to fix it.

[Old Red]

By what metric is it the worst? I think 2012 was the worst. We won't count 2020.

 

I think the pitching has held up pretty well considering all the injuries they have had to deal with, and using the Worcester starting rotation for part of the season. The backend of the BP is the best it’s been all year.

[moonslav59]

By what metric is it the worst? I think 2012 was the worst. We won't count 2020.

 

Here is a look at some team pitching numbers in key areas:

 

fWAR

-0.2 2020

6.4 2012

8.8 2022 (year not finished)

10.6 2014

11.8 2015

 

ERA-

120 2020

111 2012

107 2022

105 2005

104 2015

 

WHIP

1.60 2020

1.44 2006

1.41 2009

1.39 2005

1.38 2019

1.38 2021

1.37 2012

1.36 2010, 2015, 2008

1.33 2008

1.32 2014

1.31 2011, 2022

 

FIP

4.41 2012 (3rd worst)

4.04 2022 (12th worst out of 20/ 8th best)

 

K/BB

2.22 2012 (6th worst)

2.61 2022 (15th worst)

[Old Red]

I think you have missed a key point. I love great closers, Uehara especially--definitely one of my heroes. All four of the Sox WS teams had good to great closers even though Kimbrel actually stunk in the 2018 postseason (but was terrific in the regular season).

 

My argument is that it's nuts to worry about finding and using a really good closer when your rotation and the rest of bullpen basically stink. To get good value from a good closer, a manager needs a rotation and bullpen that can get you to the 9th freaking inning.

 

This year I think Houck, Schreiber, and Whitlock have all shown the ability to be good closers. However, Schreiber was a gamble when he arrived with his career ERA over 6. And Houck and Whitlock were needed to pitch multiple innings and in fact to start now and then. This didn't happen because Cora is a candidate for dodo bird of the year/century, but because the Sox pitching overall this season is the worst in the John Henry era.

 

Early in the movie Master and Commander Far Side of the World, the captain misuses his crew. He doesn't let them sail the ship or man the guns or prepare to board the enemy French ship because what he really needs to do his get his ship into a fog bank. So he puts his crew into rowboats and they tug the ship (with its broken rudder) into the fog bank so they can live to fight another day--which they do, eventually, after extensive repairs from the fires of the French ship.

 

I think Cora has been managing a similar problem this season and has had to improvise a ton. Forget the pitching and look at the jerkballs he's had to put at first base and in the outfield. As for the pitching, he's used what seems like at least 100 starters and his relievers include two position players. JDM has disappeared, and Devers and Bogey and trying to follow him down the same rat hole. Story, whom nobody likes anyway but has driven in a lot of runs and played terrific 2b, has been on the IL forever (it seems).

 

And last night against the Pirates, whose pitching (ERA 4.62) is even worse than ours (ERA 4.34), the new lineup got 5 pissy-ass singles, 2 of which were dropped by the Pirates fielders. Despite such rotten hitting, the Sox got 4 runs in the 1st and another in the 2d for 5-0, which was sustained by Pivetta who pitched 7 scoreless innings. Then in came Davis who did his level best to give the game back to the Pirates. So Schreiber comes in with the the bases loaded and no one out and gets the first guy out before giving up a base-clearing double--followed by the 3d out and the score now 5-3.

 

And who closes with a one two three inning and two K's? Mr Pariah himself, Barnes. If this game had been played at Fenway, he would have been booed by the home crowd. He was definitely booed on the game thread.

 

Why would Barnes been booed if the game had been at Fenway? I didn’t hear Barnes getting booed off the mound in the recent HS against the O’s, or Yankees.

[mvp 78]

He wasn’t booed in the gamethread. We were anticipating a breakdown that never came. He pitched fine. Crowd would have been pumped after each out.

[mvp 78]

Sox fans want Barnes to be good. He’s just shaky AF right now.

[Maxbialystock]

By what metric is it the worst? I think 2012 was the worst. We won't count 2020.

 

In 2012 the Sox ERA was ranked 13th in the AL. This year it's ranked 14th.

[Maxbialystock]

He wasn’t booed in the gamethread. We were anticipating a breakdown that never came. He pitched fine. Crowd would have been pumped after each out.

 

"Anticipating a breakdown" sounds like booing to me.

[Maxbialystock]

Why would Barnes been booed if the game had been at Fenway? I didn’t hear Barnes getting booed off the mound in the recent HS against the O’s, or Yankees.

 

Were you at those games? If you were, did you hear cheering when he entered the game? I ask because silence can be deafening.

[Maxbialystock]

Sox fans want Barnes to be good. He’s just shaky AF right now.

 

Despite my smart alec remarks, I think you are right.

[Old Red]

Were you at those games? If you were, did you hear cheering when he entered the game? I ask because silence can be deafening.

 

Max, don’t worry, and be happy. I think the subject was being booed, and not if he was cheered. Two different things, but the FACT remains Barnes was not booed off the mound at Fenway.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Old Red

[Maxbialystock]

It might be "nuts" to just focus on the closer, when so many other things are not going well, but when your closer sucks, I think it's fair to say so, and offer suggestions to fix it.

 

And my contention is that fixing it wasn't as easy as everyone, including you says.

 

Season to date, the three best Sox relievers--in terms of WAR--are Schreiber (WAR 2.1), Whitlock (WAR 1.8), and Houck (1.5).

 

I just checked a list of the best relievers (both holds and saves) in MLB and found that, with few exceptions, those guys have all pitched 50 or fewer innings. The MLB leaders in saves is Hader with 29, and he's pitched just 36 innings. The MLB leader in holds is Devin Williams with 25, and he's pitched 45 innings.

 

Despite having both been on the IL (plus Houck missed the Toronto series because of a needle allergy), Whitlock has pitched 66.1 innings and Houck 60.

 

So could you explain to me why it was dumb to pitch them a lot more innings than a normal closer/holder would pitch when Whitlock has an ERA of 2.98 and Houck 3.15 and the rest of the Sox pitching staff has an ERA of 4.40?

 

Schreiber's ERA, FWIW, is a terrific 1.89, but so far he's only pitched 47.1 innings in 45 games. My guess is that Cora has been cautious giving him longer (2 inning) stints because he's never been anywhere near this good (his career ERA is over 6) in the past. Same probably goes for closing--he's never done that either.

 

And this. I agree the 9th inning is important. But neither you nor anyone else has presented a good argument on why the other 8 innings aren't also important.

 

If Houck or Whitlock comes in to shut down the other team, who maybe scored 4 or so runs off the starter, for the 6th and 7th innings or the 7th and 8th innings, isn't that a good use of their ability? Alternatively--and this especially applies to this Sox team--what good does it do to save Houck, Schreiber, or Whitlock to close in the 9th when the other team rakes the other Sox relievers for 3 or 4 runs in the 6th, 7th, and/or 8th innings?

[Bellhorn04]

In 2012 the Sox ERA was ranked 13th in the AL. This year it's ranked 14th.

 

OK. I was looking at the rankings for MLB, not just the AL.

[Elktonnick]

OK. I was looking at the rankings for MLB, not just the AL.

 

Ok Boston won last night but I would not get too excited about what Barnes or any other pitcher did. Just as Eck said, Pittsburgh had a Triple A lineup. Let's keep everything in perspective.