A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[oldtimer]

You know what thought did? Thought Kike was going to be like last year, and go through a few hot streaks, but he SUCKED from day 1.

 

That was unfortunately true. Add Kike to the list of players disappearing from the roster for 2023. Arroyo can be our utility infielder and Refsnyder our utility outfielder. Looks like a house cleaning is in order.

[Larry Cook]

Kike is cooked! Time for us to move on from him!

[vegasbob]

Always enjoy the debates about all the guys who are not capable of playing right now. Why not talk about how Chris Sale is our best pitcher ? It reminds me of the old joke where a Dad explains to his son the difference between potential and reality.

[moonslav59]

Always enjoy the debates about all the guys who are not capable of playing right now. Why not talk about how Chris Sale is our best pitcher ? It reminds me of the old joke where a Dad explains to his son the difference between potential and reality.

 

The talk was about Bloom's lack of planning for a RH'd big bat, which he got with Story and the lack of a RH'd bat in the OF, which he had with Kike, before the injury and later with Refsnyder- the type of guy we all expected Bloom to find by the handfuls.

 

It's a valid point to make, just as complaining about Bloom not being reactive after Kike's injury, Dalbec prolonged slump and the horror show on defense caused by players playing where they should not have been playing is the better attack point.

 

Have at it.

[Bellhorn04]

Now Houck is on the IL. This team might struggle to win 70 games.

[moonslav59]

Now Houck is on the IL. This team might struggle to win 70 games.

 

This has truly been a "snakebite" season.

 

I'm not making excuses. Part of the reason we've done better than the Yanks for so many years, until now, is because they seemed to be snake-bitten by injuries and unexpected down-turns in key players, pre-past prime years. It is what it is. Bloom signed a bunch of injury prone players as a way to meet budget demands, and that bit us in the ass. Injuries to Kike, Houck and some of the younger players just added to the demise of the 2022 Sox.

 

I still think we should have had a near total fire sale of all expiring contracts and maybe even a couple more players- not viewed as being part of the longer term plan. I know about fan reaction being tied to revenues, but I'd like to see us get back to winning, sooner rather than later, and I'm okay with sacrificing, as long as the future keeps looking brighter and brighter. I do think the deadline moves improved our longer term outlook, but not by as much as it could/should have been.

[oldtimer]

This has truly been a "snakebite" season.

 

I'm not making excuses. Part of the reason we've done better than the Yanks for so many years, until now, is because they seemed to be snake-bitten by injuries and unexpected down-turns in key players, pre-past prime years. It is what it is. Bloom signed a bunch of injury prone players as a way to meet budget demands, and that bit us in the ass. Injuries to Kike, Houck and some of the younger players just added to the demise of the 2022 Sox.

 

I still think we should have had a near total fire sale of all expiring contracts and maybe even a couple more players- not viewed as being part of the longer term plan. I know about fan reaction being tied to revenues, but I'd like to see us get back to winning, sooner rather than later, and I'm okay with sacrificing, as long as the future keeps looking brighter and brighter. I do think the deadline moves improved our longer term outlook, but not by as much as it could/should have been.

 

Just about every day we see details of ML players going to the IL. Some of those are key guys. Most teams have quite a few during the season and we certainly have had more than our share. Perhaps our problem is a lack of depth. It exists both in our pitching and our field players. We have a lot of dead money, perhaps keeping us from having real depth. Paxton, Price, Barnes and Sale constitute a lot of that so we wind up using guys over the Hill and rookie pitchers and in the field our depth was Dalbec, Cordero, Duran, JBJ and Plaweki. We even traded away our front line catcher. It has been evident for some time that we are not a competitive team and I agree, we should have been trading those not in our longer term plans. There are a lot of those, but clearly the two we might have gotten something for were Eovaldi and JDM.

 

The front office and Bloom say we want to keep Bogaerts and while he would be a nice building block going forward, he may just want to move and may longer believe in Redd Sox management at any price. If he leaves, we have another serious hole to fill with an already difficult offseason scramble identified. Devers also can't be getting positive vibes from all this. So it looks like we better plan on Devers, Verdugo, Story, Arroyo and Hosmer for next season which leaves us looking for two OF, a SS/2nd, a 1st/DH (maybe Casas at 1st), a catcher and some depth pieces. Perhaps Refsnyder, Arroyo as depth with one of our catching prospects.

 

In the pitching area we clearly have needs. The Sale contract has been a bust. I wonder what his real trade value would be? Probably significantly less than what we have to pay him in salary. Paxton is an unknown who probably shouldn't be renewed, so we have Pivetta, Crawford, Winkowski and a aging Sale to headline our staff. Perhaps Bello will become a viable MLer. In my view, we need 2 front line starters. Perhaps Wacha can be in the mix but Hill is toast. Our BP also needs help as they always typically do. I won't to into those but the demands on our budget may be enormous. I don't thin Bloom and the front office have put us in a position to be fully competitive in 2023 but like Moon, I would like to see major progress toward that goal with evidence of a plan to meet Bloom's rhetoric. It has been a very disappointing season. Let's give up any pretense of striving for a WC spot and give our best prospects some ML playing time.

[notin]

The talk was about Bloom's lack of planning for a RH'd big bat, which he got with Story and the lack of a RH'd bat in the OF, which he had with Kike, before the injury and later with Refsnyder- the type of guy we all expected Bloom to find by the handfuls.

 

It's a valid point to make, just as complaining about Bloom not being reactive after Kike's injury, Dalbec prolonged slump and the horror show on defense caused by players playing where they should not have been playing is the better attack point.

 

Have at it.

 

 

To me his biggest mistake was dismantling what could have been a decent bullpen instead of reacting to Sale’s injury once it was announced. If they started the year with Houck and Whitlock nailing down the 8th and ninth innings as needed, the team doesn’t start 10-19…

[notin]

Just about every day we see details of ML players going to the IL. Some of those are key guys. Most teams have quite a few during the season and we certainly have had more than our share. Perhaps our problem is a lack of depth. It exists both in our pitching and our field players. We have a lot of dead money, perhaps keeping us from having real depth. Paxton, Price, Barnes and Sale constitute a lot of that so we wind up using guys over the Hill and rookie pitchers and in the field our depth was Dalbec, Cordero, Duran, JBJ and Plaweki. We even traded away our front line catcher. It has been evident for some time that we are not a competitive team and I agree, we should have been trading those not in our longer term plans. There are a lot of those, but clearly the two we might have gotten something for were Eovaldi and JDM.

 

The front office and Bloom say we want to keep Bogaerts and while he would be a nice building block going forward, he may just want to move and may longer believe in Redd Sox management at any price. If he leaves, we have another serious hole to fill with an already difficult offseason scramble identified. Devers also can't be getting positive vibes from all this. So it looks like we better plan on Devers, Verdugo, Story, Arroyo and Hosmer for next season which leaves us looking for two OF, a SS/2nd, a 1st/DH (maybe Casas at 1st), a catcher and some depth pieces. Perhaps Refsnyder, Arroyo as depth with one of our catching prospects.

 

In the pitching area we clearly have needs. The Sale contract has been a bust. I wonder what his real trade value would be? Probably significantly less than what we have to pay him in salary. Paxton is an unknown who probably shouldn't be renewed, so we have Pivetta, Crawford, Winkowski and a aging Sale to headline our staff. Perhaps Bello will become a viable MLer. In my view, we need 2 front line starters. Perhaps Wacha can be in the mix but Hill is toast. Our BP also needs help as they always typically do. I won't to into those but the demands on our budget may be enormous. I don't thin Bloom and the front office have put us in a position to be fully competitive in 2023 but like Moon, I would like to see major progress toward that goal with evidence of a plan to meet Bloom's rhetoric. It has been a very disappointing season. Let's give up any pretense of striving for a WC spot and give our best prospects some ML playing time.

 

 

If you are one of those who believes you can’t re-sign a player you traded away, then there is at least one positive to keeping Bogaerts at the deadline…

[Old Red]

To me his biggest mistake was dismantling what could have been a decent bullpen instead of reacting to Sale’s injury once it was announced. If they started the year with Houck and Whitlock nailing down the 8th and ninth innings as needed, the team doesn’t start 10-19…

 

Now you are coming around to what I’ve been saying since day 1, and I also believe it was Bloom decision to put Whitlock into the rotation, which many on here liked as well. Whitlock hasn’t been the same since Just another example of Bloom not having a clue.

[Old Red]

This has truly been a "snakebite" season.

 

I'm not making excuses. Part of the reason we've done better than the Yanks for so many years, until now, is because they seemed to be snake-bitten by injuries and unexpected down-turns in key players, pre-past prime years. It is what it is. Bloom signed a bunch of injury prone players as a way to meet budget demands, and that bit us in the ass. Injuries to Kike, Houck and some of the younger players just added to the demise of the 2022 Sox.

 

I still think we should have had a near total fire sale of all expiring contracts and maybe even a couple more players- not viewed as being part of the longer term plan. I know about fan reaction being tied to revenues, but I'd like to see us get back to winning, sooner rather than later, and I'm okay with sacrificing, as long as the future keeps looking brighter and brighter. I do think the deadline moves improved our longer term outlook, but not by as much as it could/should have been.

 

Having Bloom in charge, and judging by the results is all the sacrifices I want to make, and the RESULTS is not what I want to see. All the fire sale talk on here even before the season started showed where some were going, or hoping.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Now you are coming around to what I’ve been saying since day 1, and I also believe it was Bloom decision to put Whitlock into the rotation, which many on here liked as well. Whitlock hasn’t been the same since Just another example of Bloom not having a clue.

 

Good to see you're coming around on front office meddling, since it never made sense that a manager wouldn't want to put his players in the best positions to succeed this year -- the one he's actually in charge of -- and not worry about weakening his bullpen by stretching someone out to be a starting pitcher for next year.

[Hugh2]

Apparently Whitlock can’t handle back to back days, and when he does needs multiple days off. Not sure if the Sox are being too cautious at this point or what, but that certainly hamstrings the bullpen overall. If they’re going to rest him that much they should just fully commit to him as a starter. I think they will next year.

 

Barnes laying eggs didn’t help either.

[Old Red]

Good to see you're coming around on front office meddling, since it never made sense that a manager wouldn't want to put his players in the best positions to succeed this year -- the one he's actually in charge of -- and not worry about weakening his bullpen by stretching someone out to be a starting pitcher for next year.

 

I’ve always thought that Bloom makes more decisions like Whitlock, Arroyo, Duran, and Franchy creating a clown show. Maybe Bloom should be the manager to see what he can do with the mess he created.

[Elktonnick]

I’ve always thought that Bloom makes more decisions like Whitlock, Arroyo, Duran, and Franchy creating a clown show. Maybe Bloom should be the manager to see what he can do with the mess he created.

Bloom likes guys who can fill multi roles, none exceptionally well.

[notin]

Now you are coming around to what I’ve been saying since day 1, and I also believe it was Bloom decision to put Whitlock into the rotation, which many on here liked as well. Whitlock hasn’t been the same since Just another example of Bloom not having a clue.

 

I have too.

 

We only differed on which of Houck or Whitlock should close. I preferred Houck in the 9th and Whitlock tackling the high leverage/best opposing hitters, the role Cora has basically handed to Schreiber (which makes his season even more remarkable)…

[notin]

Now you are coming around to what I’ve been saying since day 1, and I also believe it was Bloom decision to put Whitlock into the rotation, which many on here liked as well. Whitlock hasn’t been the same since Just another example of Bloom not having a clue.

 

I don’t like to pretend I know who makes the decisions.

 

I do find it easier to believe Whitlock to the rotation was Bloom, but moves like Arroyo to RF seem to fall more on Cora IMO. Same with using Houck to piggyback Hill.

 

But I would never claim to know these things, so I can’t actually blame anyone for them…

[Old Red]

I have too.

 

We only differed on which of Houck or Whitlock should close. I preferred Houck in the 9th and Whitlock tackling the high leverage/best opposing hitters, the role Cora has basically handed to Schreiber (which makes his season even more remarkable)…

 

I’m not sure either one could do the job full time, but they were the best option from day 1, and they were not utilized.

[dgalehouse]

In today's game , the bullpen rules. The smarter teams have realized that and staffed their pens accordingly. They have guys who you may never have heard of , but they come in and dominate for a inning or so. The Red Sox have missed the boat in this area . And it shows in the results.

[Old Red]

In today's game , the bullpen rules. The smarter teams have realized that and staffed their pens accordingly. They have guys who you may never have heard of , but they come in and dominate for a inning or so. The Red Sox have missed the boat in this area . And it shows in the results.

 

It started the season with a 10-19 record.

[Larry Cook]

In today's game , the bullpen rules. The smarter teams have realized that and staffed their pens accordingly. They have guys who you may never have heard of , but they come in and dominate for a inning or so. The Red Sox have missed the boat in this area . And it shows in the results.

 

Building a quality bullpen seems to be Hang’em Chaim’s second biggest weakness!

[dgalehouse]

If the Sox have any hope of getting back into the wild card picture , this looks like their best chance. Home for three against the Yanks , who have been slumping , not hitting and are going with the back end of their rotation in this series. Then , it's three against the Pirates and four vs the Orioles. Very beatable teams. All very winnable games. It may be a case of now or never. And to those of you who have already given up all hope , I have nothing to say.

[moonslav59]

4 down with 48 to go.

 

Here's what we have left:

 

2 more v NYY (Monday off)

then a 6 game road trip ( 3 v PIT/ 3 v BAL- big chance to make serious gains) day off

then a 6 game homestand (3 v TOR/ 3 V TBR- another big chance.)

squeeze a 3 game road series v MIN (another team ahead of us) no days off

back home to start SEP (no days off) for 4 v TEX (still no day off)

3 at TBR, ending a 16 day streak

day off

3 at BAL

day off

2 v NYY at BOS

day off

3 v KCR at home

day off (4th day off in 12 days!)

Finish well rested...

@ CIN 3

@NYY 3

BAL 4

@ TOR 3

TBR 3

 

 

[Old Red]

If the Sox have any hope of getting back into the wild card picture , this looks like their best chance. Home for three against the Yanks , who have been slumping , not hitting and are going with the back end of their rotation in this series. Then , it's three against the Pirates and four vs the Orioles. Very beatable teams. All very winnable games. It may be a case of now or never. And to those of you who have already given up all hope , I have nothing to say.

 

Imagine the O’s, and Sox fighting for the playoffs series in the middle of August. Yes we have a bunch of quitters on here.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Old Red

[Old Red]

4 down with 48 to go.

 

Here's what we have left:

 

2 more v NYY (Monday off)

then a 6 game road trip ( 3 v PIT/ 3 v BAL- big chance to make serious gains) day off

then a 6 game homestand (3 v TOR/ 3 V TBR- another big chance.)

squeeze a 3 game road series v MIN (another team ahead of us) no days off

back home to start SEP (no days off) for 4 v TEX (still no day off)

3 at TBR, ending a 16 day streak

day off

3 at BAL

day off

2 v NYY at BOS

day off

3 v KCR at home

day off (4th day off in 12 days!)

Finish well rested...

@ CIN 3

@NYY 3

BAL 4

@ TOR 3

TBR 3

 

 

[/quote

 

5 games back in the L colum. 1 game at a time, and let’s go Sox.

[harmony]

Imagine the O’s, and Sox fighting for the playoffs series in the middle of August. Yes we have a bunch of quitters on here.

The Red Sox postseason odds are 16.9 percent at FanGraphs, 14 percent at FiveThirtyEight and 3.2 percent at Baseball Prospectus.

 

It's an uphill climb.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

Imagine the O’s, and Sox fighting for the playoffs series in the middle of August. Yes we have a bunch of quitters on here.

 

There are no quitters here.

 

If they were quitters, they wouldn't be here, they'd be gone.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox postseason odds are 16.9 percent at FanGraphs, 14 percent at FiveThirtyEight and 3.2 percent at Baseball Prospectus.

 

It's an uphill climb.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.shtml

 

The percentages are obviously fair, but they can change a lot in a week.

[notin]

Imagine the O’s, and Sox fighting for the playoffs series in the middle of August. Yes we have a bunch of quitters on here.

 

I wonder how many people realize the Orioles have the best record in the AL East since June 1…

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder how many people realize the Orioles have the best record in the AL East since June 1…

 

They could easily finish second in the division.

 

Seems like the kid catcher has really given them a boost.