A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Hugh2]

Sale still pitches like an ace? Sale hasn’t pitched like an ace since maybe early 2018.

 

Subjective, let me rephrase. Sale hasn't lost his stuff, he just can't stay healthy. It's not like he's not a good pitcher when he can pitch....he just hasn't been healthy.

 

He came back last year and pitched great in the ALCS. He did what you expect your ace to do.

[moonslav59]

Subjective, let me rephrase. Sale hasn't lost his stuff, he just can't stay healthy. It's not like he's not a good pitcher when he can pitch....he just hasn't been healthy.

 

He came back last year and pitched great in the ALCS. He did what you expect your ace to do.

 

He pitched okay in the ALCS but that was outweighed by his ALDS game. 9 IP 8 ER in the post season, last year.

 

Also, from 2019-2022, his numbers have been good, but not ace-like.

 

2019-2022

4.09 ERA (117 ERA+)

3.43 FIP

1.140 WHIP

5.50 K/BB

 

2017-2018 w Sox

2.56 ERA (175 ERA+)

2.25 FIP

0.924 WHIP

7.08 K/BB

 

w CWS

3.00 ERA (135 ERA+)

1.065 WHIP

4.78 K/BB

 

I'm not doubting Sale can and has pitched well, when healthy, after 2018, but not like an ace.

 

 

[Old Red]

Bloom should have known these guys were about to decline and traded all 3, last winter. The fans would have called him a genius!

 

MOST fans in Red Sox Nation are NEVER going to call Bloom a genius.

[Hugh2]

He pitched okay in the ALCS but that was outweighed by his ALDS game. 9 IP 8 ER in the post season, last year.

 

Also, from 2019-2022, his numbers have been good, but not ace-like.

 

2019-2022

4.09 ERA (117 ERA+)

3.43 FIP

1.140 WHIP

5.50 K/BB

 

2017-2018 w Sox

2.56 ERA (175 ERA+)

2.25 FIP

0.924 WHIP

7.08 K/BB

 

w CWS

3.00 ERA (135 ERA+)

1.065 WHIP

4.78 K/BB

 

I'm not doubting Sale can and has pitched well, when healthy, after 2018, but not like an ace.

 

 

 

That was also ONE inning, he looked pretty good down the stretch last year and he looked good this year. In terms of his stuff, it did not look diminished at all, he just didn't stay on the field very long. If you want to say a guy can't be an ACE because he can't pitch that's fine. But I'm totally uninterested in arguing semantics with people. The facts are his stuff hasn't diminished, if he's healthy he's going to pitch great. Maybe he never gets healthy again though. People can argue they want but he's under contract.

[moonslav59]

That was also ONE inning, he looked pretty good down the stretch last year and he looked good this year. In terms of his stuff, it did not look diminished at all, he just didn't stay on the field very long. If you want to say a guy can't be an ACE because he can't pitch that's fine. But I'm totally uninterested in arguing semantics with people. The facts are his stuff hasn't diminished, if he's healthy he's going to pitch great. Maybe he never gets healthy again though. People can argue they want but he's under contract.

 

He might still be very good, and the fact that he looks really good for an inning or outing here and there, when he's healthy does not mean his stuff has not diminished.

 

When pitching since 2018, he has not been the same Chris Sale.

 

Every pitcher looks good or great for an inning or outing every so often.

 

I'm not saying he can't or won't return to or close to his former self, but he hasn't, so far.

[Old Red]

He might still be very good, and the fact that he looks really good for an inning or outing here and there, when he's healthy does not mean his stuff has not diminished.

 

When pitching since 2018, he has not been the same Chris Sale.

 

Every pitcher looks good or great for an inning or outing every so often.

 

I'm not saying he can't or won't return to or close to his former self, but he hasn't, so far.

Agree, and Sale’s best, and healthy days were long ago.

[Hugh2]

He might still be very good, and the fact that he looks really good for an inning or outing here and there, when he's healthy does not mean his stuff has not diminished.

 

When pitching since 2018, he has not been the same Chris Sale.

 

Every pitcher looks good or great for an inning or outing every so often.

 

I'm not saying he can't or won't return to or close to his former self, but he hasn't, so far.

 

Has he lost velocity on his fastball? has he lost separation on his fastball/change? and has he lost spin rate? are hitters swinging and missing less? On the pitching side of things, stuff can be measured. Chris Sale still has excellent stuff. He just sucks at staying healthy. If Chris Sale comes back and stays healthy you can bet he's going to pitch like a TOTRS.

[Old Red]

Has he lost velocity on his fastball? has he lost separation on his fastball/change? and has he lost spin rate? are hitters swinging and missing less? On the pitching side of things, stuff can be measured. Chris Sale still has excellent stuff. He just sucks at staying healthy. If Chris Sale comes back and stays healthy you can bet he's going to pitch like a TOTRS.

 

The amazing part about Sale was that he didn’t get injured fighting that TV in Worcester. Must have been a prop.

[Hugh2]

I hate making definitive statements based on small samples sizes, but stuff is stuff. If you're throwing your fast 95 MPH you're throwing 95 MPH. As athletes, you can either do something or not do it, like an NBA player dunking.

 

In terms of stuff, Chris Sale still has it. If he ever gets healthy he's going to be great again. Now I can already forsee the dumb responses to this by the suspected characters about him never pitching again or staying healthy WHATEVER....I'm not saying he's ever going to be healthy and have a full season of health. All I'm saying is if he ever gets his injuries behind him and gets back up on the mound for a season he's going to pitch great. The pitch data supports that.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-sale-519242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[sk7326]

I hate making definitive statements based on small samples sizes, but stuff is stuff. If you're throwing your fast 95 MPH you're throwing 95 MPH. As athletes, you can either do something or not do it, like an NBA player dunking.

 

In terms of stuff, Chris Sale still has it. If he ever gets healthy he's going to be great again. Now I can already forsee the dumb responses to this by the suspected characters about him never pitching again or staying healthy WHATEVER....I'm not saying he's ever going to be healthy and have a full season of health. All I'm saying is if he ever gets his injuries behind him and gets back up on the mound for a season he's going to pitch great. The pitch data supports that.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-sale-519242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

It'd be nice. That said, his numbers have not been great since the World Series year ... granted he has been hurt for a lot of it. The strikeout data in small sample land have been a dropoff.

 

He can still be the team's most effective pitcher - by a lot. But it's going to be a bit more crafty lefty now.

[Hugh2]

It'd be nice. That said, his numbers have not been great since the World Series year ... granted he has been hurt for a lot of it. The strikeout data in small sample land have been a dropoff.

 

He can still be the team's most effective pitcher - by a lot. But it's going to be a bit more crafty lefty now.

 

Yet he had his highest SO9 rate ever in 2019 and what a smaller rate in less than 6 innings? What stats are you talking about? other than his 2019 ERA.

 

Why does a guy who has not lost velocity, not loss spin, and not lost separation have to be "crafty"??? CRafty is what you become when you fastball drops from 99 to 91 so you learn a new pitch and hit your spots better. Sale has not lost velocity.

[Old Red]

Yet he had his highest SO9 rate ever in 2019 and what a smaller rate in less than 6 innings? What stats are you talking about? other than his 2019 ERA.

 

I will say one thing. His arm is well rested.

[moonslav59]

Has he lost velocity on his fastball? has he lost separation on his fastball/change? and has he lost spin rate? are hitters swinging and missing less? On the pitching side of things, stuff can be measured. Chris Sale still has excellent stuff. He just sucks at staying healthy. If Chris Sale comes back and stays healthy you can bet he's going to pitch like a TOTRS.

 

Yes, he has lost some velocity.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2022&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

I don't know about spin rate.

 

His control is down as his BB% has risen a lot after 2018. Isn't that part of "his stuff," too? (It's 6.1% since 2019.)

 

His WHIP is way up. Is that just bad luck? (It's 1.14 since 2019.)

 

If his stuff is still as good as before, why has the hard hit% against him gone up so much?

 

29.7% 2017

26.5% 2018

36.0% 2019

23.5% 2021

38.9% 2022

 

It's 33.1% since 2019. Medium hit is at 48.6%. Both are middle of the pack among Sox pitchers with 50+ IP since 2019. His Soft Hit% is 12 worst out of 29.

 

I'm not sure why he walking more, and hitters are teeing up on him more, if his stuff is the same.

 

[cp176]

I hate making definitive statements based on small samples sizes, but stuff is stuff. If you're throwing your fast 95 MPH you're throwing 95 MPH. As athletes, you can either do something or not do it, like an NBA player dunking.

 

In terms of stuff, Chris Sale still has it. If he ever gets healthy he's going to be great again. Now I can already forsee the dumb responses to this by the suspected characters about him never pitching again or staying healthy WHATEVER....I'm not saying he's ever going to be healthy and have a full season of health. All I'm saying is if he ever gets his injuries behind him and gets back up on the mound for a season he's going to pitch great. The pitch data supports that.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-sale-519242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

Chris Sale is one of my all time favorite pitchers and competitors. He has had a massive tough run but I'm still hoping that we all get to see him pitch again.

[Bellhorn04]

He might still be very good, and the fact that he looks really good for an inning or outing here and there, when he's healthy does not mean his stuff has not diminished.

 

When pitching since 2018, he has not been the same Chris Sale.

 

Major cherry-picking here, but in 2019 Sale had an amazing 9 game stretch from May 3-June 15.

 

60.1 IP

2.09 ERA

98 K's

11 BB's

[Hugh2]

Yes, he has lost some velocity.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2022&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

I don't know about spin rate.

 

His control is down as his BB% has risen a lot after 2018. Isn't that part of "his stuff," too? (It's 6.1% since 2019.)

 

His WHIP is way up. Is that just bad luck? (It's 1.14 since 2019.)

 

If his stuff is still as good as before, why has the hard hit% against him gone up so much?

 

29.7% 2017

26.5% 2018

36.0% 2019

23.5% 2021

38.9% 2022

 

It's 33.1% since 2019. Medium hit is at 48.6%. Both are middle of the pack among Sox pitchers with 50+ IP since 2019. His Soft Hit% is 12 worst out of 29.

 

I'm not sure why he walking more, and hitters are teeing up on him more, if his stuff is the same.

 

 

Are you seriously going to use 5 innings showing his hard hit % going up? in more innings it was less than 2017 last year? Come on Moon you're better than that. And where are you getting his velocity Data? I mean if we are going to use his 2022 stats his fastball averaged 94.9 which is .4 higher than his average. The difference between 1 MPH is negligible if you're hitting your spots and getting movement, his fastball movement has not diminished. I'm not sure what you're looking at.

 

The only year that backs an argument of his stuff as "diminished" is 2019, it's a good but not super strong argument but remember, this was RIGHT before he got injured. Could it be his harder hit percentage in 2019 was because of his arm was about to blow up? Seeing how his velocity and spin rate is back up SINCE then I'd say yes.

[Hugh2]

Major cherry-picking here, but in 2019 Sale had an amazing 9 game stretch from May 3-June 15.

 

60.1 IP

2.09 ERA

98 K's

11 BB's

 

And then his numbers dropped, and then his elbow blew up? could it be that his numbers dropped because of the injury? Seems like a no-brainer yes to me. You take that into consideration and look at his peripherals in 2021 and his velocity/spin data since his surgery and it's obvious that his stuff has not dimished. Doesn't mean squat if he can't stay on the mound but saying Sales stuff isn't there anymore is just flat out wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

And then his numbers dropped, and then his elbow blew up? could it be that his numbers dropped because of the injury? Seems like a no-brainer yes to me. You take that into consideration and look at his peripherals in 2021 and his velocity/spin data since his surgery and it's obvious that his stuff has not dimished. Doesn't mean squat if he can't stay on the mound but saying Sales stuff isn't there anymore is just flat out wrong.

 

Yes, I'm with you.

[sk7326]

And then his numbers dropped, and then his elbow blew up? could it be that his numbers dropped because of the injury? Seems like a no-brainer yes to me. You take that into consideration and look at his peripherals in 2021 and his velocity/spin data since his surgery and it's obvious that his stuff has not dimished. Doesn't mean squat if he can't stay on the mound but saying Sales stuff isn't there anymore is just flat out wrong.

 

His strikeout rate dropped in 2021 ... and if you want to get to bigger games and such he is still a pitcher who has completed 6 innings in exactly zero postseason starts. Sale I think will be very good next year and easily the best starter on the staff - but my expectations are somewhat limited, particularly as a spoiled Red Sox fan who still remembers Pedro or Clemens.

[moonslav59]

Are you seriously going to use 5 innings showing his hard hit % going up? in more innings it was less than 2017 last year? Come on Moon you're better than that. And where are you getting his velocity Data? I mean if we are going to use his 2022 stats his fastball averaged 94.9 which is .4 higher than his average. The difference between 1 MPH is negligible if you're hitting your spots and getting movement, his fastball movement has not diminished. I'm not sure what you're looking at.

 

The only year that backs an argument of his stuff as "diminished" is 2019, it's a good but not super strong argument but remember, this was RIGHT before he got injured. Could it be his harder hit percentage in 2019 was because of his arm was about to blow up? Seeing how his velocity and spin rate is back up SINCE then I'd say yes.

 

No, I took all his innings from 2019-2022 and totaled them up. It's way more than 5 IP. Seriously, It is.

 

Now, I can't use 5 IP as a measure, but you can say his velocity is the same based on 5 IP?

[moonslav59]

And then his numbers dropped, and then his elbow blew up? could it be that his numbers dropped because of the injury? Seems like a no-brainer yes to me. You take that into consideration and look at his peripherals in 2021 and his velocity/spin data since his surgery and it's obvious that his stuff has not dimished. Doesn't mean squat if he can't stay on the mound but saying Sales stuff isn't there anymore is just flat out wrong.

 

Lot's of pitchers look like Cy Young over a 9 game stretch. Why do those 9 games count more than the others?

 

When Sale was his old self, almost all his 9 game stretches looked similar to those.

[Hugh2]

No, I took all his innings from 2019-2022 and totaled them up. It's way more than 5 IP. Seriously, It is.

 

Now, I can't use 5 IP as a measure, but you can say his velocity is the same based on 5 IP?

 

Yes! This isn’t the outcome of hundred or thousands of at bats. You can either pitch 95 MPH or you can’t.

 

Me and you can play basketball 1x1 right now and I could drop a three on you. That would be luck because I suck but it could be skill or it could be luck. You proceed to dunk on me. I can’t say that’s luck, you can’t by chance do something you’re physically unable to do. If you’re pitching 95 MPH you’re pitching 95 MPH. Your data from a 3 year sample is mostly 2019. Weighing that year heavily, in which he was OBVIOUSLY pitching hurt. How can you say a guy hasn’t recovered from an injury by using his numbers while injured?

[moonslav59]

Yes! This isn’t the outcome of hundred or thousands of at bats. You can either pitch 95 MPH or you can’t.

 

Me and you can play basketball 1x1 right now and I could drop a three on you. That would be luck because I suck but it could be skill or it could be luck. You proceed to dunk on me. I can’t say that’s luck, you can’t by chance do something you’re physically unable to do. If you’re pitching 95 MPH you’re pitching 95 MPH. Your data from a 3 year sample is mostly 2019. Weighing that year heavily, in which he was OBVIOUSLY pitching hurt. How can you say a guy hasn’t recovered from an injury by using his numbers while injured?

 

Can he pitch 95 over 70+ pitches over a few games?

[Hugh2]

His strikeout rate dropped in 2021 ... and if you want to get to bigger games and such he is still a pitcher who has completed 6 innings in exactly zero postseason starts. Sale I think will be very good next year and easily the best starter on the staff - but my expectations are somewhat limited, particularly as a spoiled Red Sox fan who still remembers Pedro or Clemens.

 

Dropped to what? 11 per 9? that's still elite. He led the league once with 10.8 and finished 3rd in CY Young voting. His career average is 11.1 So 11 seems right on the mark for him.

[moonslav59]

Can he pitch 95 over 70+ pitches over a few games?

 

BTW, he did not pitch 95 both games.

[Hugh2]

Can he pitch 95 over 70+ pitches over a few games?

 

Not with a broken bone in his wrist he can't.

[moonslav59]

Dropped to what? 11 per 9? that's still elite. He led the league once with 10.8 and finished 3rd in CY Young voting. His career average is 11.1 So 11 seems right on the mark for him.

 

I questioned your term "diminished." Yes, Sale was so great, he can be diminished and still an ace, but he seems to have diminished by more than just a little in a few other areas- like BB%, Hard hit%, WHIP and a sharp decline in soft hit%.

 

That worries me. I still have hopes, but I do think he has shown a diminishment since 2018, and it's not by a little bit. The guy was fantastic from 2017-2018. It's hard to keep that up, but he has not been the '17-'18 Sale.

[Hugh2]

BTW, he did not pitch 95 both games.

 

That wasn't my point I was making an analogy, I could say 94 MPH or 93 MPH or 99 MPH. What matters is his velocity relative to his average velocity. His stuff is not gone.

[Hugh2]

I questioned your term "diminished." Yes, Sale was so great, he can be diminished and still an ace, but he seems to have diminished by more than just a little in a few other areas- like BB%, Hard hit%, WHIP and a sharp decline in soft hit%.

 

That worries me. I still have hopes, but I do think he has shown a diminishment since 2018, and it's not by a little bit. The guy was fantastic from 2017-2018. It's hard to keep that up, but he has not been the '17-'18 Sale.

 

The only real "data" you have to back up your point is 2019 in which he was obviously pitching hurt. You can't take a guy who is an ACE, has one bad season in which is elbow blows up and then take that data which OBVIOUSLY is a reflection of him pitching hurt, and then say he's lost his stuff since returning from an injury. That's a very skewed way of thinking. Unfortunately, we don't have a large sample size since 2019, but he did look pretty darn good in 2021, and the pitch data we have in terms of spin rate and velotiy PROVE his stuff has not diminished.

[Old Red]

Not with a broken bone in his wrist he can't.

 

If this guy wasn’t owed the rest of the Bungled Big contract that DD gave him Sale wouldn’t be worth all the time, and Speculation he’s getting.