A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[dgalehouse]

i think it is unlikely that J.D. opts out. If by chance he does , the Sox will almost certainly try to sign Schwarber. I don't know if they will do that if J.D. stays.

[moonslav59]

i think it is unlikely that J.D. opts out. If by chance he does , the Sox will almost certainly try to sign Schwarber. I don't know if they will do that if J.D. stays.

 

It makes it harder, yes, especially when our high need areas are pitching and defense, and we don’t seem to need a fix at 1B or LF.

[vegasbob]

 

JD makes $19.4M next year.

 

His choice might be to take that and see what he can get afterward or go for something longer term as a higher security position. I dont think he opts out but he might.

 

He might opt out and get $60M/4 while Schwarber signs for $68M/4.

 

It’s a guess at this point.

 

Any team that will go $60MM/4 years for JDM needs to rethink their overall plan. Only AL teams considered, not sure who has deep pockets and only one hitter away from a title. I wonder if the rule on options is that the player has to declare first to opt out before he can negotiate with another team ? The NBA makes a farce of that provision but MLB may be tougher since you are technically under contract until you are not. It's binary .

[Bellhorn04]

Any team that will go $60MM/4 years for JDM needs to rethink their overall plan. Only AL teams considered, not sure who has deep pockets and only one hitter away from a title. I wonder if the rule on options is that the player has to declare first to opt out before he can negotiate with another team ? The NBA makes a farce of that provision but MLB may be tougher since you are technically under contract until you are not. It's binary .

 

Yes, JD has to declare he's opting out before he can negotiate with other teams.

[moonslav59]

Any team that will go $60MM/4 years for JDM needs to rethink their overall plan. Only AL teams considered, not sure who has deep pockets and only one hitter away from a title. I wonder if the rule on options is that the player has to declare first to opt out before he can negotiate with another team ? The NBA makes a farce of that provision but MLB may be tougher since you are technically under contract until you are not. It's binary .

 

I just threw that JD number out there to make a point.

 

If he gets a $35M/3 offer, my point doesn’t change.

 

[notin]

I don’t think I’m going to miss ERod…

[Nick]

Yes, JD has to declare he's opting out before he can negotiate with other teams.

 

Yes, that's called tampering and that's definite no no.

[Nick]

I just threw that JD number out there to make a point.

 

If he gets a $35M/3 offer, my point doesn’t change.

 

 

in essence he's taking a two year deal worth $8 per year. Why in the hell would he do that? What agent is going to tell him "you're sucking" so you should take $35/3 offer?

[Nick]

I don’t think I’m going to miss ERod…

 

He's a big 'teaser'.....will the real E Rod stand up?

[notin]

He's a big 'teaser'.....will the real E Rod stand up?

 

He might stand up, but he won’t run to cover first…

[notin]

in essence he's taking a two year deal worth $8 per year. Why in the hell would he do that? What agent is going to tell him "you're sucking" so you should take $35/3 offer?

 

He might not even get that after 2022….

[Bellhorn04]

in essence he's taking a two year deal worth $8 per year. Why in the hell would he do that? What agent is going to tell him "you're sucking" so you should take $35/3 offer?

 

$35/3 is light. $45/3 still seems reasonable.

[moonslav59]

in essence he's taking a two year deal worth $8 per year. Why in the hell would he do that? What agent is going to tell him "you're sucking" so you should take $35/3 offer?

 

My point was about Schwarber not JD.

[Nick]

I think we're all in agreement. I want Schwarber reardless. We can have both if JD stays. He can opt out and we can always find a DH.

[notin]

I think we're all in agreement. I want Schwarber reardless. We can have both if JD stays. He can opt out and we can always find a DH.

 

Schwarber would be an easier fit if Verdugo could handle CF.

 

Hernandez certainly graded out better in CF than anyone on the Sox, but also does very well at 2b by some metrics. He’s second in MLB in DRS at 2b since 2019 behind only Kolten Wong, who has about 1,000 more innings at the position. (Wong also owns about every defensive metric for second basemen.)

[oldtimer]

The list that Moon laid out for field players still makes some sense and requires only a minimum number of actions by Bloom, although some are important.

 

Hernandez

Verdugo

Renfroe

Dalbec*

Arroyo

Bogaerrts

Devers

Schwaber

Vazquez*

 

Util:

Plawecki

Arauz

Duran

____Temp 1st base help until Casas is ready

 

This requires that JDM opts out or is moved. Improving the catching position might prove difficult.

 

Of course this doesn't do much about our defensive issues in 2021. We have significant issues at 3rd still, Bogaerts has range issues and Dalbec has been subpar at first. He doesn't seem to have the soft hands and agility to play 1st or 3rd that well. Can we move these players around and improve the defense? Moon had suggestions for moves as well. Mayer is not coming anytime soon so do we add a SS, move Bogaerts and Devers and make Dalbec a Utility player with 1st, 3rd, DH and pinch hitting roles? It may take something drastic like that to get much better and then we are moving two guys into unfamiliar positions (3rd for Bogaerts and 1st for Devers). Those moves would also block Casas, who may be the soft-handed power hitting 1st baseman of the future. I don't see an easy transition that improves our defense.

[notin]

I don’t see Duran as a bench player. His MiLB career, years of control, and minimum salary make him better trade bait. The Sox can always sign some Jake Marisnick/Kevin Pillar/Delino DeShields type for a fourth outfielder. Maybe even bring back JBJ, who hasn’t done much this year to merit a big contract.

 

I also think JDM is still a likely (but not definite) part of the team. So if Schwarber comes back, he either needs to learn 1b or Verdugo needs to learn CF. (Despite Monday’s horrific showcase, Verdugo still grades out slightly below average in CF, but at least not ridiculously incompetent.)

[mvp 78]

I don’t see Duran as a bench player. His MiLB career, years of control, and minimum salary make him better trade bait. The Sox can always sign some Jake Marisnick/Kevin Pillar/Delino DeShields type for a fourth outfielder. Maybe even bring back JBJ, who hasn’t done much this year to merit a big contract.

 

I also think JDM is still a likely (but not definite) part of the team. So if Schwarber comes back, he either needs to learn 1b or Verdugo needs to learn CF. (Despite Monday’s horrific showcase, Verdugo still grades out slightly below average in CF, but at least not ridiculously incompetent.)

 

I believe JBJ has a player option. Not sure if he'll be leaving MIL.

[notin]

I believe JBJ has a player option. Not sure if he'll be leaving MIL.

 

You are correct. As it is apparently for $11 mill, he very likely stays.

 

If Schwarber comes back to Boston, perhaps some sort of contract swap involving JDM and JBJ can happen. Probably need a third team and a few more parts (BTV has JDM’s value at 0.1, far and away ahead of JBJ’s -16.8.)

 

Teams that might take the chance on JDM include Texas, KC, Philly (an obvious Dombrowski connection), and possibly Arizona (where JD became some sort of legend in his brief time there)..

[mvp 78]

JBJ

Ashby - LHP

6M

 

for

 

JDM

[notin]

JBJ

Ashby - LHP

6M

 

for

 

JDM

 

I’d do it if Schwarber was on board. But would Milwaukee? If there’s no NL DH this year, they might not have a lot of use for him…

[Bellhorn04]

Not sure how they can trade JD with that opt out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox can always sign some Jake Marisnick/Kevin Pillar/Delino DeShields type for a fourth outfielder. Maybe even bring back JBJ, who hasn’t done much this year to merit a big contract.

 

 

This only echoes what most of us posted, hoped for, and advised last winter -- and yet, Bloom didn't bite, not even for the relatively paltry cost of what some CFers got: $1-2 million.

 

Why does anyone think he'll change strategies a year later? [note: note a rhetorical; I'm interested in replies... "because he's admitting the Sox' defense is the worst in the majors", "because he actually plans on contending in '22", "because he wants to buy new patio furniture and needs to keep his job", etc.]

[mvp 78]

I’d do it if Schwarber was on board. But would Milwaukee? If there’s no NL DH this year, they might not have a lot of use for him…

 

I don't think the trade is likely. I'm not sure JBJ would even want to come back.

[mvp 78]

Not sure how they can trade JD with that opt out.

 

You'd wait until the opt out is selected.

[notin]

This only echoes what most of us posted, hoped for, and advised last winter -- and yet, Bloom didn't bite, not even for the relatively paltry cost of what some CFers got: $1-2 million.

 

Why does anyone think he'll change strategies a year later? [note: note a rhetorical; I'm interested in replies... "because he's admitting the Sox' defense is the worst in the majors", "because he actually plans on contending in '22", "because he wants to buy new patio furniture and needs to keep his job", etc.]

 

Just because he didn’t get a backup defensive CF type one time doesn’t mean he is 100% deadest opposed to the idea with a religious fervor. At Tampa, he did bring in players like Peter Bourjos and Mallex Smith to fill the role…

[notin]

I don't think the trade is likely. I'm not sure JBJ would even want to come back.

 

Does he have a No Trade Clause? If not, he has no say.

 

But I would agree this type of trade is not likely..,

[Hugh2]

This only echoes what most of us posted, hoped for, and advised last winter -- and yet, Bloom didn't bite, not even for the relatively paltry cost of what some CFers got: $1-2 million.

 

Why does anyone think he'll change strategies a year later? [note: note a rhetorical; I'm interested in replies... "because he's admitting the Sox' defense is the worst in the majors", "because he actually plans on contending in '22", "because he wants to buy new patio furniture and needs to keep his job", etc.]

 

1. He took a last place team with a

Historically horrible finish to a playoff contending team.

 

2. He had a budget, and a directive to get the team below the luxury tax threshold.

 

3. He’s spent the last year building up depth in the system, and has returned the minor league system to a top 10 system.

 

4. It’s wildly speculated that the Sox plan on going over the luxury tax after they reset it. This lines up with next year. A team, vastly improved from the year before adding payroll and improving the quality of the big club.

 

There’s no need to change strategy next year, the strategy was a multi year plan all along.

[notin]

This only echoes what most of us posted, hoped for, and advised last winter -- and yet, Bloom didn't bite, not even for the relatively paltry cost of what some CFers got: $1-2 million.

 

Why does anyone think he'll change strategies a year later? [note: note a rhetorical; I'm interested in replies... "because he's admitting the Sox' defense is the worst in the majors", "because he actually plans on contending in '22", "because he wants to buy new patio furniture and needs to keep his job", etc.]

 

Also I’d be a bit hesitant to say we advised Bloom last season on anything. I would say with nearly 100% certainty he isn’t even aware of this one little Red Sox forum amongst a sea of similar ones across the expanse that is the World Wide Web. Or, to be more succinct - he doesn’t know we exist…

[mvp 78]

Does he have a No Trade Clause? If not, he has no say.

 

But I would agree this type of trade is not likely..,

 

Martinez reportedly has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block three teams annually.