A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Nick]

Tampa is also 2nd in MLB is Isolated Power. Not like Cruz is the only guy hitting the ball hard…

 

Sox are third in runs scored with 699. Rays are at 733, leading the majors. I just can't get my head around that. When did they become run scoring machine? I thought they were all about pitching and defense.

[moonslav59]

Sox are third in runs scored with 699. Rays are at 733, leading the majors. I just can't get my head around that. When did they become run scoring machine? I thought they were all about pitching and defense.

 

They were a little better than middle of the road in last year's short season (12th) and 2019 (11th), but yes, they were largely known for pitching defense, base running and doing all the little things right.

 

They trade Snell and lose Glasnow plus their top closer, Anderson, plus a couple decent pitchers like Chirinos and Beeks and suddenly turn into an run-scoring team.

 

On the surface, it looks like smoke and mirrors, but they've done this for too long, to believe it's just blind luck.

 

Look at the offenses of Houston, LAD, BOS, CWS and TOR. The Rays have scored more than all of them! Almost 50 more than the Jays!

 

Runs

733 TBR

710 HOU

699 BOS

692 LAD

686 CWS

685 TOR/CIN

 

OPS is supposed to be one of the best predictors of runs score: the Rays are 10th in OPS- closer to 11th than 9th.

.785 TOR

.774 HOU

.772 BOS

,762 CIN

.755 CWS

.754 SFG

.752 ATL

.750 LAD

.750 WSN

.743 TBR

 

Within the OPS stat, they say OBP is more important than SLG: TBR are 13th in OBP at .319.

 

Power? They are 5th in ISO and 3rd in the ALE!

.192 TOR

.190 ATL

.188 SFG

.186 BOS

.184 TBR

.181 CIN

.180 MIN

.179 LAD

 

They are 7th in team speed, according to fangraphs.

 

They are 12th in BAbip at .292. (BOS, CWS & WSH are 1st at .307).

 

They are 10th in wOBA at .320 (TOR, HOU & BOS are all over .331.)

 

They do look better, but still not best in...

 

wRC+

116 HOU

111 TOR

109 CWS

107 TBR

106 BOS

106 LAD

104 SFG

103 OAK

102 CIN

 

fangraphs base running

12.4 COL

9.1 KCR

8.6 TBR

 

fangraphs batting

102 HOU

69 TOR

59 CWS

44 TBR

39 LAD

39 BOS

 

Will they come down to earth, or have they found ways to defy the odds and score more without being better hitters and runners?

[Elktonnick]

They were a little better than middle of the road in last year's short season (12th) and 2019 (11th), but yes, they were largely known for pitching defense, base running and doing all the little things right.

 

They trade Snell and lose Glasnow plus their top closer, Anderson, plus a couple decent pitchers like Chirinos and Beeks and suddenly turn into an run-scoring team.

 

On the surface, it looks like smoke and mirrors, but they've done this for too long, to believe it's just blind luck.

 

Look at the offenses of Houston, LAD, BOS, CWS and TOR. The Rays have scored more than all of them! Almost 50 more than the Jays!

 

Runs

733 TBR

710 HOU

699 BOS

692 LAD

686 CWS

685 TOR/CIN

 

OPS is supposed to be one of the best predictors of runs score: the Rays are 10th in OPS- closer to 11th than 9th.

.785 TOR

.774 HOU

.772 BOS

,762 CIN

.755 CWS

.754 SFG

.752 ATL

.750 LAD

.750 WSN

.743 TBR

 

Within the OPS stat, they say OBP is more important than SLG: TBR are 13th in OBP at .319.

 

Power? They are 5th in ISO and 3rd in the ALE!

.192 TOR

.190 ATL

.188 SFG

.186 BOS

.184 TBR

.181 CIN

.180 MIN

.179 LAD

 

They are 7th in team speed, according to fangraphs.

 

They are 12th in BAbip at .292. (BOS, CWS & WSH are 1st at .307).

 

They are 10th in wOBA at .320 (TOR, HOU & BOS are all over .331.)

 

They do look better, but still not best in...

 

wRC+

116 HOU

111 TOR

109 CWS

107 TBR

106 BOS

106 LAD

104 SFG

103 OAK

102 CIN

 

fangraphs base running

12.4 COL

9.1 KCR

8.6 TBR

 

fangraphs batting

102 HOU

69 TOR

59 CWS

44 TBR

39 LAD

39 BOS

 

Will they come down to earth, or have they found ways to defy the odds and score more without being better hitters and runners?

Jose Iglesias signed with Boston

[moonslav59]

Jose Iglesias signed with Boston

 

I almost called that, when I saw he was DFA'd, and Bogey went down with COVID.

 

Welcome back!

 

(This should be on the 2021 thread.)

[Elktonnick]

I almost called that, when I saw he was DFA'd, and Bogey went down with COVID.

 

Welcome back!

 

(This should be on the 2021 thread.)

 

He may be a big factor in 2022.

[moonslav59]

He may be a big factor in 2022.

 

We trading Bogey?

 

Big factor utility man?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

So how much is Schwarber going to cost the Red Sox in the off-season? He is a hitting machine who turns 29 in March. I guess we need to look at other elite hitting DH types (weak fielders) who are close to Schwarber in age and see what they are making.

[moonslav59]

So how much is Schwarber going to cost the Red Sox in the off-season? He is a hitting machine who turns 29 in March. I guess we need to look at other elite hitting DH types (weak fielders) who are close to Schwarber in age and see what they are making.

 

He can plat a short corner OF better than JD, IMO, and if he can show he can be okay at 1B, his value goes up even more.

 

I'm thinking he can get $64M/4 or $75M/5.

 

(I'm not very good at these projections.)

[Elktonnick]

We trading Bogey?

 

Big factor utility man?

 

Who would you rather have as your backup utility infielder Iggy or Arauz or another Marwin Gonzales type. Iggy will be on the 40 man roster next opening day, bank on it

[moonslav59]

Who would you rather have as your backup utility infielder Iggy or Arauz or another Marwin Gonzales type. Iggy will be on the 40 man roster next opening day, bank on it

 

Arauz, easily, but we can sign someone else who still can play D.

[Elktonnick]

Arauz, easily, but we can sign someone else who still can play D.

Aruaz sucks he can not hit except bunt, his defense is marginal. Iggy can play when he wants to all star gold glove defense and hit 240 to 250.

[Larry Cook]

Rays have scored 8 runs against us today, and we had chris sale in the mound.

[notin]

Aruaz sucks he can not hit except bunt, his defense is marginal. Iggy can play when he wants to all star gold glove defense and hit 240 to 250.

 

Fun comment on a day in which Arauz has a home run and Iglesias made a game-tying error…

[Elktonnick]

I will still take Iggy any day over Arauz, I have seen both play enough to know Arauz will never be a gold glove nominee or an All Star. BTW it was Verdugo's misplay which set the whole thing up. But I would still have Verdugo play center over Duran.

[notin]

I will still take Iggy any day over Arauz, I have seen both play enough to know Arauz will never be a gold glove nominee or an All Star. BTW it was Verdugo's misplay which set the whole thing up. But I would still have Verdugo play center over Duran.

 

Verdugo actually gave up more runs in the first 9 innings than the pitching staff did…

[oldtimer]

Verdugo actually gave up more runs in the first 9 innings than the pitching staff did…

 

Just one more game of defensive screwups. Do we even make the wildcard?

[Elktonnick]

Verdugo actually gave up more runs in the first 9 innings than the pitching staff did…

 

Verdugo had the worst day in the centerfield that I can recall by any Red Sox player.

[Hugh2]

Fun comment on a day in which Arauz has a home run and Iglesias made a game-tying error…

 

People forget how young Arauz is. He’s the same age as some of our top

Prospects in AA and below.

[notin]

Verdugo had the worst day in the centerfield that I can recall by any Red Sox player.

 

His day was so awful it actually made the pitching much worse…

[a700hitter]

Aruaz sucks he can not hit except bunt, his defense is marginal. Iggy can play when he wants to all star gold glove defense and hit 240 to 250.

Arauz has a live bat. He needs more experience to develop a more polished approach to his ABs. Right now, he is going up to bat without a game plan and MLB pitchers are dictating his AB s.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Not defending Iggy and I'm not dissing Bogey, but what makes sense is that a SS with larger range is going to have more errors than a SS with limited range in most cases.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Not defending Iggy and I'm not dissing Bogey, but what makes sense is that a SS with larger range is going to have more errors than a SS with limited range in most cases.

 

On the other side of the coin; a SS with wider range that has less errors than a SS with limited range is obviously a much better SS.

[moonslav59]

Not defending Iggy and I'm not dissing Bogey, but what makes sense is that a SS with larger range is going to have more errors than a SS with limited range in most cases.

 

The Iggy today is not the Iggy we remember, but your point is spot on.

 

It basically comes down to this: if one SS makes 50-80 more plays a season on the same amount and difficulty of plays than another one, but makes 15-20 more errors, he's still way better than the other guys.

 

(And, yes, some SSs do make 50-80 more plays than others over a season.)

 

[harmony]

People forget how young Arauz is. He’s the same age as some of our top

Prospects in AA and below.

Jonathan Arauz reminds me of Abraham Toro, whom the Seattle Mariners acquired from the Houston Astros in the Kendall Graveman deal near the trade deadline.

 

Arauz and Toro are 6-foot, roughly 200-pound switch-hitters who play multiple infield positions. Arauz and Toro apparently were teammates* on the Greeneville Astros, Tri-City ValleyCats, Quad City River Bandits and Buies Creek Astros in the Houston farm system.

 

Toro, who is about 20 months older than Arauz, has posted a .309/.390/.453/.843 line 37 games as Seattle's everyday second baseman. Each entered this season with at least one year of MLB service although only Toro is likely to attain two years of MLB service at the end of this season. FanGraphs gave Toro a 45+ future value and Arauz a 40 future value as prospects.

* at least Arauz and Toro played on those teams in the same seasons

[Nick]

I get the sense we can match any team for services of Schwarber. Who would value him more as it stands now? (ie no DH in NL)

 

I only say this because we paid JD $22M AAV as a DH. Not sure if any DH has come close to that figure.

 

Even if we pay Schwarber $15M, that's savings of $7M for us.

[Hugh2]

I get the sense we can match any team for services of Schwarber. Who would value him more as it stands now? (ie no DH in NL)

 

I only say this because we paid JD $22M AAV as a DH. Not sure if any DH has come close to that figure.

 

Even if we pay Schwarber $15M, that's savings of $7M for us.

 

Assuming JD opts out that would be saving 7 million, and that's assuming 15 million gets it done.

[Nick]

Assuming JD opts out that would be saving 7 million, and that's assuming 15 million gets it done.

 

who would pay more? just curious.

[moonslav59]

I get the sense we can match any team for services of Schwarber. Who would value him more as it stands now? (ie no DH in NL)

 

I only say this because we paid JD $22M AAV as a DH. Not sure if any DH has come close to that figure.

 

Even if we pay Schwarber $15M, that's savings of $7M for us.

 

JD will probably not opt out, so it's not hard to imagine us thinking we can't pay two guys big money as primary DHs and poor defenders anyplace we put one of them.

 

One scenario is we sign Schwarber to $16M a year and trade JD while paying $6M a year of his 1 year left and end up spending $22M on a DH- same as this year.

 

(Would someone take JD +$6M?)

[Hugh2]

who would pay more? just curious.

 

I'm not the G.M. of any ballclub, but if he's worth something to us, he's worth something to someone else. He's a premium bat that can play multiple positions. I also have taken note that we as fans (myself included) are much much much more likely to underestimate how much a guy gets in FA rather than overestimate how much they get.

 

Here's another way of looking at it. If JD knows he can get more than 22 and opts out...........why would it be hard to believe someone is going to give Kyle more than $15?

[moonslav59]

I'm not the G.M. of any ballclub, but if he's worth something to us, he's worth something to someone else. He's a premium bat that can play multiple positions. I also have taken note that we as fans (myself included) are much much much more likely to underestimate how much a guy gets in FA rather than overestimate how much they get.

 

Here's another way of looking at it. If JD knows he can get more than 22 and opts out...........why would it be hard to believe someone is going to give Kyle more than $15?

 

JD makes $19.4M next year.

 

His choice might be to take that and see what he can get afterward or go for something longer term as a higher security position. I dont think he opts out but he might.

 

He might opt out and get $60M/4 while Schwarber signs for $68M/4.

 

It’s a guess at this point.