A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Nick]

For argument's sake, let's assume we bring back Schwarber and JD does NOT opt out, and no everyday player is traded away.

 

We might see these 13 players on the 26 man roster most of the season, not counting injuries.

 

Vaz & Plawecki C

Dalbeck 1B, 3B, DH

Arroyo 2B, SS, 3B

Devers 3B (1B?)

Bogey SS

Verdugo LF, CF, RF

Kike CF, 2B (utlity)

Renfroe RF, CF, LF

JD DH, LF/RF (shortest)

Schwarber LF/RF (shortest), DH, 1B?

Duran LF/RF, CF, PR

Arauz 2B, SS, 3B

 

Now, the playing time issues. I'm going to go off or a 16 game cycle, about 1/10th of a season and assume everybody gets 10 days of rest (1 out of 16 off).

 

Here is how I could see us maximizing the playing time of our best players:

 

15/16 Players

Devers

Bogey

Schwarber

Kike

JD

 

14/16 Players

Renfroe

Verdugo

 

13/16 Players

Arroyo

 

12/16 Players

Dalbec

 

11/16 Players

Vazquez

 

By Position:

 

3B: Devers 15/ Dalbec 1

SS: Bogey 15/ Arroyo 1

DH: JD 15/ Schwarber 1

RF: Renfroe 14/ Verdugo 2

C: Vaz 11/ Plawecki 5

LF: Schwarber 9/ Verdugo 7

1B: Dalbec 11/ Schwarber 5

CF: Kike 11/ Verdugo 5

2B: Arroyo 12/ Kike 4

 

It looks like maybe Dalbec and Arroyo deserve to play more than 75% of the games (12 or 13 out of 16 games), but with injuries expected, they probably can and will.

Some might argue Renfroe and/or Verdugo should play 15 out of 16 games, and they can by lessening games from Arroyo (Kike to 2B) or Dalbec (Schwarber to 1B).

This also assumes no games for Duran and Arauz, unless someone is injured.

 

It looks like it can be done.

 

Thats a good lineup. I bitch about our D but thats not something u can change overnight.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

JDM turns 35 in August and some teams will give him a bye for 2020. It is possible that a team would offer him 3 years for $40/45 Mil. It might temp him since it would guarantee good money for his age 36 and 37 year old seasons. It he had a fall-off in 2021 he might be left with less.

 

Hopefully, the NL adopts the DH for next season. That would more than double the chance that JD MIGHT be offered a 3 year deal.

Edited September 5, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

Hopefully, the NL adopts the DH for next season. That would more than double the chance that JD MIGHT be offered a 3 year deal.

 

If the NL adopts the DH, Martinez will not only opt out, but he will then sign with the Philllies. Dombrowski has a serious thing for JDM…

[moonslav59]

I'd really hate to see JD go. I know he struggled for the 60 game 2020 cluster season, and he's not hitting like '18-'19, this year, either, but the guy can hit. He had some big hits for us, this year- and not just in April.

 

That being said, the $19M would allow us to fill some huge needs and offer a more simplified plan with Schwarber, assuming we extend or re-sign him. It would also allow for a better defense with Schwarber at DH not LF/1B.

 

1. Kike CF (FT- where he belongs)

2. Schwarber DH (where he belongs)

3. Devers 3B (Lock him up- anyway you have to)

4. Bogey SS (May opt out after 2022)

5. Renfroe RF (Not the best defender in RF, but his arm makes some up)

6. Verdugo LF (Hope to see some improvement)

7. Dalbec 1B (Need consistency)

8. Arroyo 2B (Makes for a better defensive team)

9. Vaz-Plawecki C (Might be Vaz's last season with us)

Bench: Duran, Arauz, __FA Utility__ and eventually Casas

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the NL adopts the DH, Martinez will not only opt out, but he will then sign with the Philllies. Dombrowski has a serious thing for JDM…

 

The new CBA agreement won't be remotely close to the deadline for JD to decide, so the only hope is that Boros has some inside insight about the upcoming negotiation wars and advises his client to act accordingly.

[moonslav59]

The new CBA agreement won't be remotely close to the deadline for JD to decide, so the only hope is that Boros has some inside insight about the upcoming negotiation wars and advises his client to act accordingly.

 

If he opts out, he will be given the QO, so he'll have more time on deciding to stay or go.

 

One reason he may not want to opt out and say no to the QO is the penalties teams get by signing QO FAs. That might hurt his value on the market.

[oldtimer]

I'd really hate to see JD go. I know he struggled for the 60 game 2020 cluster season, and he's not hitting like '18-'19, this year, either, but the guy can hit. He had some big hits for us, this year- and not just in April.

 

That being said, the $19M would allow us to fill some huge needs and offer a more simplified plan with Schwarber, assuming we extend or re-sign him. It would also allow for a better defense with Schwarber at DH not LF/1B.

 

1. Kike CF (FT- where he belongs)

2. Schwarber DH (where he belongs)

3. Devers 3B (Lock him up- anyway you have to)

4. Bogey SS (May opt out after 2022)

5. Renfroe RF (Not the best defender in RF, but his arm makes some up)

6. Verdugo LF (Hope to see some improvement)

7. Dalbec 1B (Need consistency)

8. Arroyo 2B (Makes for a better defensive team)

9. Vaz-Plawecki C (Might be Vaz's last season with us)

Bench: Duran, Arauz, __FA Utility__ and eventually Casas

 

 

I am thinking 13 field players on the active roster as you describe here. Catchers with excellence are hard to find and therefore expensive. We will have to weigh Vaz against what would be available. The FA utility player might be a left handed part time first, since Arauz and Duran can fill utility infield and outfield positions. When and if Casas comes, we may have two first basemen who could play every day. At least Dalbec could play third. I think Casas is strictly a first baseman. The lineup and utility group described is a competitive one.

 

When you talked of starting pitchers earlier, you didn't mention E-Rod. I put him in the same category as Vaz, that is, let's see what we can get for equal money and risk as left handed starters are hard to find.

t baseman

[moonslav59]

Our pitchers by age:

19: Wilkelman Gonzalez

22: Bryan Mata, Jay Groome, Brayan Bello

23: Chris Murphy, Josh Winckowski

24: DHern, Noah Song, Thaddeus Ward, Branden Walter

25: Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo, Kutter Crawford

26: Gonsalves

27: Schreiber, Hartlieb

28: Rios, ERod (FA), Taylor, Pivetta, A Davis

29: Valdez

30: Perez (option), Robles (FA)

31: Barnes, Eovaldi

32: Sale

33: Richards (option), Sawamura, Peacock (FA), Brasier

35: Ottavino (FA)

 

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If he opts out, he will be given the QO, so he'll have more time on deciding to stay or go.

 

One reason he may not want to opt out and say no to the QO is the penalties teams get by signing QO FAs. That might hurt his value on the market.

 

It definitely will. JD won't want to sit around until June to sign and play, like Kimbrel had to when clubs were waiting out the penalty window.

 

And knowing that, Bloom might not offer the QO, especially if the Sox want to use JD's money elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

I am thinking 13 field players on the active roster as you describe here. Catchers with excellence are hard to find and therefore expensive. We will have to weigh Vaz against what would be available. The FA utility player might be a left handed part time first, since Arauz and Duran can fill utility infield and outfield positions. When and if Casas comes, we may have two first basemen who could play every day. At least Dalbec could play third. I think Casas is strictly a first baseman. The lineup and utility group described is a competitive one.

 

When you talked of starting pitchers earlier, you didn't mention E-Rod. I put him in the same category as Vaz, that is, let's see what we can get for equal money and risk as left handed starters are hard to find.

t baseman

 

ERod is a FA- Vaz is not.

 

I'm fine with bringing ERod back as the #3/4 but not as the #1/2 we need.

 

I can't see having Casas and Dalbec on the 26 man roster for too long. Dalbec will not get much time at 3B, and Casas & Dalbec both need to play nearly everyday to improve and to prove themselves. I think one gets traded, unless we feel one can DH once JD leaves, but where does that leave the whole Schwarber at DH at?

[moonslav59]

It definitely will. JD won't want to sit around until June to sign and play, like Kimbrel had to when clubs were waiting out the penalty window.

 

And knowing that, Bloom might not offer the QO, especially if the Sox want to use JD's money elsewhere.

 

If he turns down $19.4M, why not offer him the $19M QO?

 

We get a sandwich pick, if he declines.

 

I can't see JD declining the $19.4M option only to take the $19M or $19.2M QO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If he turns down $19.4M, why not offer him the $19M QO?

 

We get a sandwich pick, if he declines.

 

I can't see JD declining the $19.4M option only to take the $19M or $19.2M QO.

 

Of course he won't accept the QO, but the penalties make a mid-30s DH a lot less attractive to other clubs. He'll have more offers in June than January. If you're the Red Sox and really want to get out of the JD contract, you let him walk.

[Hugh2]

If he turns down $19.4M, why not offer him the $19M QO?

 

We get a sandwich pick, if he declines.

 

I can't see JD declining the $19.4M option only to take the $19M or $19.2M QO.

 

Any year you reset the luxury tax with the plan of going over the next year, they next year is the most ideal time to overpay on short term contracts. If you’re planning on going over anyways then hypothetically you’re going to be trying to get back under in several years. Leaving the upside of a 1 year deal with anyone with upside like JDM well worth a QO.

 

If JD opts out you take offer the QO and you don’t blink. He turns it down then you get a pick to waste by signing a FA who presumably is going to put you on the hook for big bucks several years down the line.

 

He exercise his option.

[Nick]

If he turns down $19.4M, why not offer him the $19M QO?

 

We get a sandwich pick, if he declines.

 

I can't see JD declining the $19.4M option only to take the $19M or $19.2M QO.

 

Are you 100% certain if Sox can offer him a QO when we signed him as a FA? I thought that was no longer possible.

[Hugh2]

Are you 100% certain if Sox can offer him a QO when we signed him as a FA? I thought that was no longer possible.

 

You can offer any player a qualifying offer as long as they were not traded that year. So for example, Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo can’t be given qualifying offers, but Eduardo Rodriguez and JD Martinez can.

[moonslav59]

Of course he won't accept the QO, but the penalties make a mid-30s DH a lot less attractive to other clubs. He'll have more offers in June than January. If you're the Red Sox and really want to get out of the JD contract, you let him walk.

 

All I said was that if he opts out, we'll offer him the QO and get the sandwich pick.

[moonslav59]

You can offer any player a qualifying offer as long as they were not traded that year. So for example, Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo can’t be given qualifying offers, but Eduardo Rodriguez and JD Martinez can.

 

I think there is also a clause about someone not being offered a QO twice in his career, but I don't think JD got a QO the last time.

[moonslav59]

Any year you reset the luxury tax with the plan of going over the next year, they next year is the most ideal time to overpay on short term contracts. If you’re planning on going over anyways then hypothetically you’re going to be trying to get back under in several years.

 

With Eovaldi and Price coming off the books, we can afford one meg long term deal (or two moderate long ones) and still be able to reset again in 2-3 years- assuming we go over in 2022.

[Nick]

You can offer any player a qualifying offer as long as they were not traded that year. So for example, Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo can’t be given qualifying offers, but Eduardo Rodriguez and JD Martinez can.

 

Thanks...

[Nick]

With Eovaldi and Price coming off the books, we can afford one meg long term deal (or two moderate long ones) and still be able to reset again in 2-3 years- assuming we go over in 2022.

 

Perhaps Devers? The delta will be much less than $33M (assuming he gets what was Eovaldi/Price AAV) with his arb 2 coming up this winter.

 

I doubt it'll be $15M but $12M might be close. So we'd still have $12M for another player.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Perhaps Devers? The delta will be much less than $33M (assuming he gets what was Eovaldi/Price AAV) with his arb 2 coming up this winter.

 

I doubt it'll be $15M but $12M might be close. So we'd still have $12M for another player.

 

We have enough budget space to sign a long term FA and eventually extend Devers while re-setting in 2023 or 2024.

 

We have a few big roles to fill, this winter, but maybe only 3 rather large signings or acquisitions are needed. That should be able to be sustained in future budgets. Yes, we lose Eovaldi after 2022, but we won't be missing Price. Replacing JD at his money should not be very difficult, but if we swing and miss, it could be really bad.

 

We'll need guys like Dalbec, Arroyo, Renfroe, Verdguo, Whitlock and Houck to play big roles at relatively low costs.

 

If we don't extend Devers, his cost will be less, via arbs, than the cost of a FA to give us what he gives.

[Nick]

If we can go with Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Houck and Pivetta in 2022 along with say Seabold then focus would solely be on the bullpen.

 

With Barnes, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawmura and Taylor already on board, surely it won't be hard to pick up two or three more relievers.

 

If JD opts out, I think we'll get Schwarber.

 

We could make a move for a big time ace knowing Price/Eovaldi and JD money comes off the board after 2022.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Replacing JD at his money should not be very difficult, but if we swing and miss, it could be really bad.

 

 

This post isn't to revive the JD discussion, but more the concept of Designated Hitter and what that means going forward to Bloom and Cora. They value versatility, a bench that contributes, and resting regulars, so maybe the Sox won't pursue a new DH, per say. Management could very well look forward to optimizing the "position" as a revolving door that keeps more players involved and others fresh.

[Bellhorn04]

This post isn't to revive the JD discussion, but more the concept of Designated Hitter and what that means going forward to Bloom and Cora. They value versatility, a bench that contributes, and resting regulars, so maybe the Sox won't pursue a new DH, per say. Management could very well look forward to optimizing the "position" as a revolving door that keeps more players involved and others fresh.

 

That idea has been floated a lot here. I'm not convinced, in fact I'm very skeptical, that it yield better results than having a bat like Papi or JD in the lineup every day.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That idea has been floated a lot here. I'm not convinced, in fact I'm very skeptical, that it yield better results than having a bat like Papi or JD in the lineup every day.

 

Me neither; I was just speculating on current management's views. Rare is the star slugger these days who anchors an order as a DH. I hope I'm still around for the Niko Kavadas Era.

[Bellhorn04]

Me neither; I was just speculating on current management's views. Rare is the star slugger these days who anchors an order as a DH. I hope I'm still around for the Niko Kavadas Era.

 

I suppose there's a presumption that Bloom = Rays ways, and the Rays way is not a big muscular DH. But who did the Rays trade for at the deadline? Nelson Cruz.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I suppose there's a presumption that Bloom = Rays ways, and the Rays way is not a big muscular DH. But who did the Rays trade for at the deadline? Nelson Cruz.

 

Hey! Boston is not Tampa, FLA. Bloom's tenure in this big market northeastern city is not and will not be a reflection of his Rays days. The purse strings are off, back up the Brinks truck!

[notin]

I suppose there's a presumption that Bloom = Rays ways, and the Rays way is not a big muscular DH. But who did the Rays trade for at the deadline? Nelson Cruz.

 

Tampa is also 2nd in MLB is Isolated Power. Not like Cruz is the only guy hitting the ball hard…

[moonslav59]

If we can go with Sale, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Houck and Pivetta in 2022 along with say Seabold then focus would solely be on the bullpen.

 

With Barnes, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawmura and Taylor already on board, surely it won't be hard to pick up two or three more relievers.

 

If JD opts out, I think we'll get Schwarber.

 

We could make a move for a big time ace knowing Price/Eovaldi and JD money comes off the board after 2022.

 

Although signing a top SP'er costs more than a top closer, they seem more likely to not fail than RP'ers often do. I have no evidence to support this, and out last big pitcher signing, Price, did not work out all that greatly.

 

I know we want to avoid 5 or 6+ year deals, so I really would not be surprised, if we sign one or two of the older pitchers to a 2-3 year deals and use Houck in the pen.

 

Yes, Houck has great value as a starter, even if he continues to get yanked after the second time through a line-up, but getting starters who can go 6-7 takes a lot of stress off the pen.

[moonslav59]

Hey! Boston is not Tampa, FLA. Bloom's tenure in this big market northeastern city is not and will not be a reflection of his Rays days. The purse strings are off, back up the Brinks truck!

 

On a DH only player?