A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

So the plan is not only mediocrity, it's doubling down on mediocrity?

 

Duffy is really good first time through the order. Maybe turn him into Houck.

[mvp 78]

So the plan is not only mediocrity, it's doubling down on mediocrity?

 

Sounds better than Perez/Richards.

[moonslav59]

And this will be a step down instead of a step up.

 

When you compare them to ERod, yes, but don't forget Iggy > Marwin and Matz/Graveman > Richards/Perez/Andriese.

 

It's kind of a close call.

[moonslav59]

So the plan is not only mediocrity, it's doubling down on mediocrity?

 

I was only responding to what we might do, if we limit our spending.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock replaces ERod

Graveman replaces Whitlock (in the pen)

Jon Gray or Matz replaces Richards

Duffy replaces Perez

Iggy replaces Marwin/Santana

 

[Old Red]

When you compare them to ERod, yes, but don't forget Iggy > Marwin and Matz/Graveman > Richards/Perez/Andriese.

 

It's kind of a close call.

 

E Rod is the most important.

[moonslav59]

E Rod is the most important.

 

Yes, but it's not like Richards and Perez pitched zero innings, this year.

[Old Red]

Yes, but it's not like Richards and Perez pitched zero innings, this year.

 

It’s just a bad sign not to take care of their own. Next up is Bogey.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duffy is really good first time through the order. Maybe turn him into Houck.

 

Last time I saw Duffy in person at Fenway, Mookie homered off him in his second, third and fourth time through the order. He singled the first time -- the only Red Sox' hit through the first three innings. JD also went yard in his second at bat.

[mvp 78]

Last time I saw Duffy in person at Fenway, Mookie homered off him in his second, third and fourth time through the order. He singled the first time -- the only Red Sox' hit through the first three innings. JD also went yard in his second at bat.

 

You just proved my point. Just get him one time through the order!

[moonslav59]

IP Replacing:

158 ERod (4.74 ERA)

137 Richards (4.87)

114 Perez (4.74)

62 Ottavino (4.21)

37 Andriese (6.03)

50+ Scrrubs like Workman, Brice, Robles, Rios, Weber, Peacock & Feliz

 

As you can see Richards, Perez, Ottavino and Andriese total 350 IP to ERod's 158.

 

Yes, ERod will be very difficult to replace. I'd rather have Jon Gray than Matz, but if we get Matz & Duffy (+ Graveman?), they might make up for losing ERod plus the others.

 

 

[moonslav59]

It’s just a bad sign not to take care of their own. Next up is Bogey.

 

Wait to judge until after we sign someone.

[notin]

It’s just a bad sign not to take care of their own. Next up is Bogey.

 

They might be trying. But Bogaerts has to be agreeable.

 

Probably worth mentioning he did hire the most disagreeable agent in the sport...

[notin]

Last time I saw Duffy in person at Fenway, Mookie homered off him in his second, third and fourth time through the order. He singled the first time -- the only Red Sox' hit through the first three innings. JD also went yard in his second at bat.

 

In the event the Sox do sign Duffy, he probably won't face those two guys too many times...

[notin]

Duffy is really good first time through the order. Maybe turn him into Houck.

 

Make him throw right-handed? That has disaster written all over it...

[moonslav59]

On the offensive side, we will be replacing these PAs:

 

271 Marwin (.567 OPS)

168 Schwarber (.957)

136 Cordero (.497)

127 Santana (.597)

82 Chavis (.549)

75 Arauz (.643)

64 Iggy (.915)

48 Shaw (.843)

30+ scrubs like Lopez, Munoz & Motter.

 

Overall, we are losing some very bad numbers that far outweigh the 3 in red.

[Bellhorn04]

On the offensive side, we will be replacing these PAs:

 

271 Marwin (.567 OPS)

168 Schwarber (.957)

136 Cordero (.497)

127 Santana (.597)

82 Chavis (.549)

75 Arauz (.643)

64 Iggy (.915)

48 Shaw (.843)

30+ scrubs like Lopez, Munoz & Motter.

 

Overall, we are losing some very bad numbers that far outweigh the 3 in red.

 

Hmmm, seems like every offseason we talk about "addition by subtraction".

[Old Red]

They might be trying. But Bogaerts has to be agreeable.

 

Probably worth mentioning he did hire the most disagreeable agent in the sport...

 

I would like to know what they offered E Rod, and if, and what they have offered Bogey.

[mvp 78]

Hmmm, seems like every offseason we talk about "addition by subtraction".

 

During the taping of one of the Sox clubhouse celebrations this year, David Ortiz said on ESPN (in reference to Betts and others leaving the Sox and the Sox turning it around quickly and general team comradery) "I'm not a believer in the importance of the guys who leave, it's about who you bring in." That really struck me.

[Bellhorn04]

They might be trying. But Bogaerts has to be agreeable.

 

Probably worth mentioning he did hire the most disagreeable agent in the sport...

 

In spite of which, I'd have to call the existing deal Bogey signed a team-friendly one.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You just proved my point. Just get him one time through the order!

 

I knew you'd like that. We need about six Duf-- wait, can't say his name.

[moonslav59]

Hmmm, seems like every offseason we talk about "addition by subtraction".

 

...and then we add Marwin, Cordero, Richards, Perez and Andriese.

 

Maybe Matz, Duffy and Iggy will be just like them.

 

Maybe we can say we replaced them with Kike, Renfroe & Whitlock.

Edited November 19, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

...and then we add Marwin, Cordero, Richards, Perez and Andriese.

 

Maybe Matz, Duffy and Iggy will be just like them.

 

Right, that's what I'm getting at. There will always be clunkers.

[mvp 78]

During the taping of one of the Sox clubhouse celebrations this year, David Ortiz said on ESPN (in reference to Betts and others leaving the Sox and the Sox turning it around quickly and general team comradery) "I'm not a believer in the importance of the guys who leave, it's about who you bring in." That really struck me.

 

https://twitter.com/AustinBumpus/status/1447960734793560066

 

This is the actual quote, about 1 minute in.

[moonslav59]

Right, that's what I'm getting at. There will always be clunkers.

 

How we let the clunker Marwin get 271 PAs is beyond me.

[Old Red]

How we let the clunker Marwin get 271 PAs is beyond me.

 

Santana was another big clunker. There is more of a tendency when you go to garage sales, but not as expensive.

[moonslav59]

Santana was another big clunker. There is more of a tendency when you go to garage sales, but not as expensive.

 

True, but I do think we paid him around $1.5M (which is more than Sawamura).

 

You are right. I do the addition by subtraction every year, and that pretty much proves someone replaces last years list with fresh faces.

 

I agree replacing ERod will not be easy, and I hope we can not skimp. If the payroll is the issue, maybe we'll trade for someone better than Matz, Duffy and perhaps even Jon Gray (Montas?)

 

I also think not mentioning Ottavino's 62 innings to be replaced is noteworthy. Maybe a healthy Houck & Brasier can eat them up.

 

On the SP'er innings needing to be replaced, there is another factor that may help: more innings from Sale.

 

Here is a more precise breakdown of innings lost by our staff- by SP & RP innings:

 

SP

157 ERod

110 Richards

100 Perez

4 Peacock & Crawford

Basically, it's about 370 innings. (If Houck stays in the pen, totally, we lose his 59 IP, too.)

 

Let's say Sale goes from 43 to 183. That's 140. (ERod had 157, so maybe Sale can be viewed as taking over most of his 2021 role.)

 

That leaves 240 IP: If Matz and Duffy (or Jon Gray/Frankie Montas + one from Matz/Duffy) can't replace the other 240 or 300 IP as well as the 2021 pitchers did, then it would be a significant failure on Bloom's part.

 

RP

 

62 Ottavino (2nd on team)

37 Andriese (8th)

26 Richards (9th)

25 Robles (10th)

24 Rios (11th)

20 Workman (12th)

14 Perez (14th)

13 Brice (15)

29+ Weber, Feliz, Gonsalves, Brennan, Schrieber, Peacock, Espinal, Brewer, Ort.

That's 250 innings out of 607 total!

 

I can see Whitlock maybe going from 73 to 123 IP in relief, so that's 50.

 

Houck being healthy might see him going from 10 to 70 (or 120, if we use him in long relief). That's another 50-100 IP in the pen. That leaves 100-150 IP for additions or increases:

Brasier 12>52

Barnes 55>65

Taylor 48>58

DHern 40>60

Davis, Valdez, Bazardo 60>80

That's 80-90 more from within the system, barring any injuries.

 

Add 1-2 RP'er who can give us 70-120 innings makes the most sense.

[Nick]

Right, that's what I'm getting at. There will always be clunkers.

 

clunkers are fine....just need to recognize it at some point.....not sure what they ever saw in Santana DURING 2021. At least Marwin played some defense.

[moonslav59]

clunkers are fine....just need to recognize it at some point.....not sure what they ever saw in Santana DURING 2021. At least Marwin played some defense.

 

They were hoping he relived his mega year (not aided by trash cans).

 

.857 in 511 PAs just 2 years prior (2019) for Santana.

 

.907 in 515 PAs in 2017 with trashcan-banging for Marwin.

 

Marwin was better on D; Santana better on the base paths- all 6 times!

 

Unlike some, here, I felt Cordero was given close to the amount of time he deserved, and with the minors not starting until early May, there weren't many other options. (Santana was hurt.)

 

Santana's 127 PAs seemed like 30-50, too much.

 

Marwin's 271 seemed like 100-150 too much.

 

Duran's 112 about right

Chavis's 82 about right (He did better after leaving.)

Arauz's 75 not many other options

 

[mvp 78]

clunkers are fine....just need to recognize it at some point.....not sure what they ever saw in Santana DURING 2021. At least Marwin played some defense.

 

Santana made no errors. His UZR in the OF was good.