A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Means is a good pitcher when he is on, but he came back from a shoulder injury and sucked ass. Yeah, his FB velo was there, but he wasn't right.

[dgalehouse]

None of the aforementioned events are necessarily lame. Anything that has widespread popularity must have some appeal. It's just that different types of things appeal to different types of people. And that is something that MLB definitely needs to think about.

[Bellhorn04]

None of the aforementioned events are necessarily lame. Anything that has widespread popularity must have some appeal. It's just that different types of things appeal to different types of people. And that is something that MLB definitely needs to think about.

 

Agree on your first 3 sentences. Would like some elaboration on the 4th one.

[mvp 78]

Means was in the same division as TOR, BOS and NYY and only faced those teams a combined 4 times. He faced the Rays 5 times. TOR and BOS are some of the best teams hitting LHP. Was the rotation shuffled around to miss those two teams? We know what he did against the Sox on day 1. In his only start against the Jays, he went 3 innings and gave up 6 earned. Against the Yanks, he went 10.2 and gave up 4 earned (not horrible), but neither start was a QS.

[Bellhorn04]

Means wasn't the same after his no-no.

[mvp 78]

Means wasn't the same after his no-no.

 

His very next start: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 0 R

[dgalehouse]

Agree on your first 3 sentences. Would like some elaboration on the 4th one.

 

Just that baseball is losing appeal , especially to the younger generation. Not sure what the solution is.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just that baseball is losing appeal , especially to the younger generation. Not sure what the solution is.

 

Ban Velcro. That will shorten every game by half an hour.

 

And no mask mandates for catchers, except for undrafted youngsters (their teeth, their parents' dental bills).

[moonslav59]

How? because every single one of them were in the same exact boat.

 

Taking a year off from baseball after playing in low A, and then reporting back in 2021 to play in high A against everyone else who also missed a year is a far reach from. Hey, lets jump 4 levels, sit on the bench for a year after a whole year of missing development for 2 missed years out of 3.

 

There's a very stark difference between missing one year vs. missing two. That's a lot of developmental time lost

 

That wasn't my point. I never implied there was a difference in developmental time lost. (btw, some of these single A guys who might be drafted might start out in AA or be promoted tehre quickly, so the jump is just 2 or 3 levels. (AA to MLB is 2, A+ to MLB is 3 not 4.)

 

My point was it looks like a lot of players barely missed a step after taking 2020 off.

 

Did they improve while out? Highly doubtful.

 

Did some or many regress? Certainly.

 

Did the year off ruin their careers or stunt their growth so much so that they will never recover?

 

I'll leave that one for you to answer.

 

I'd like to add that 2 years off out of 3 is a lot worse than just one years off, but again, it's not like these guys will be sitting on a couch for 365 days.

 

There is practice.

There is spring training, including games played.

There is Fall and winter ball. (A player selected in December could play winter ball this winter, ST'ing and fall & winter ball, next year. Sure, it's not the same as playing a full season in A+ or AA ball, but it's not nothing, either.

[moonslav59]

I don't think A guy makes for a poster boy unless more follow. If one or two position players are selected from A ball this year that might be something but I wouldn't be calling him a poster boy for selecting A level position players unless it actually starts happening in droves. We will see, we're' going to find out relatively soon.

 

I think you are making a lot out of a pretty tame position I took.

 

I never said I think a half dozen single A players will be taken, this Rule 5 draft. I said we "might" see more due to various situations, including the relatively new 26th slot in the ML roster.

 

If none get drafted, I won't be surprised. My guess is 1-2 will be picked, and probably not Jimenez. Where we differ, I think, is that I would not be surprised if 3-5 get chosen. Is that position really worth pages and pages of debate?

 

I don't think so, but hell, I'm bored, so I'll keep the ball rolling as long as someone is there to catch it.

[moonslav59]

Below are some of the musings I found when Baddoo was picked. Baddoo is different from Jimenez in a few key ways.

 

1. Baddoo was injured in 2019 AND missed 2020. That's two years of development that were thrown out the window. (Jimenez has played, but not really produced)

2. Baddoo was a 2nd round pick. (Jimenez was a low level int'l signee)

3. Baddoo already showed 5 tools in game. (Jimenez shows little to no power)

 

 

 

3. Tigers: Akil Baddoo, OF (from Twins)

Minnesota left Baddoo, their second-round pick in the 2016 draft, exposed because of his seemingly slim chances of sticking on an active roster for a whole year. After all, he's played in just 29 regular-season games since the start of 2019 because of the pandemic and Tommy John surgery. Baddoo has good raw strength and speed, but his lack of experience against upper-level pitching will make it tough for the Tigers to keep him around as more than a deep reserve

 

 

 

The best position player selected was Akil Baddoo by the Detroit Tigers. He was ranked as the No. 13 prospect in the Minnesota Twins system by MLB Pipeline leading up to the Rule 5 draft.

 

The 22-year-old has only played 29 games at High-A when he posted a .214/.290/.393 slash line during the 2019 season. The Maryland native showed tremendous promise as a hitter before that aggressive move and has a .249/.357/.422 slash line with 21 homers and 93 RBI in 233 career games.

 

Even though the odds against Baddoo being able to crack an MLB roster given his limited experience, but the Tigers are in a position when they can allow him to prove himself during spring training before making a final decision.

 

 

Baddoo hit .323 (65-for-201) with a .964 OPS in 53 games at the Rookie League level in 2017, all while playing center field. A year later, he compiled 22 doubles, 11 triples, 11 homers and 24 stolen bases with a .770 OPS and a 121 wRC+ at Class A Cedar Rapids. While his .243 average was low, his 74 walks resulted in a .351 on-base percentage.

 

The momentum from that 2018 season stalled when Baddoo sustained an elbow injury early in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery that May. He would’ve been ready to play this year had there been a Minor League season.

 

Good stuff.

 

It's interesting they were willing to basically see him have a third "missed year" out of 4 seasons in hopes that he comes through.

 

I'm not sure anyone expected him to play much, let alone produce at the big league level, but he certainly seemed more capable of doing it than Jimenez is, right now.

[moonslav59]

The Rule 5 draft is the most overrated event in American sports, with the possible exception of the Kentucky Derby…

 

Perhaps "Protection Day" has become even more overrated than the Rule 5 Draft Day.

[moonslav59]

Not me. Means' 2021: first half 2.28 ERA, second half 4.88 -- during the ban on sticky stuff and a shoulder injury. I need to see an entire year of adjustments and recovery first. Right now, I wouldn't even trade Bello for Means straight up.

 

I'd probably give Duran & Downs for the hope the new tacky ball will bring back some guys, like Means, that floundered late 2021.

 

I'd do a thorough physical, too.

 

Means can be an excellent pitcher. How many of those do we have coming up in our system?

Edited November 23, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Perhaps "Protection Day" has become even more overrated than the Rule 5 Draft Day.

 

That's for sure. It just keeps us warm through these bitter cold nights.

[mvp 78]

I'd probably give Duran & Downs for the hope the new tacky ball will bring back some guys, like Means, that floundered late 2021.

 

I'd do a thorough physical, too.

 

Means can be an excellent pitcher. How many of those do we have coming up in our system?

 

Not sure they'd take Downs and Duran for Means. Doesn't work per BTV.

 

Duran, Dalbec and Seabold works.

 

Duran, Downs and Winckowski works.

 

I wouldn't do those deals though.

[moonslav59]

Not sure they'd take Downs and Duran for Means. Doesn't work per BTV.

 

Duran, Dalbec and Seabold works.

 

Duran, Downs and Winckowski works.

 

I wouldn't do those deals though.

 

I think I submitted the Seabold trade on BTV!

 

They'd take my deal over Bello, straight up.

[moonslav59]

That's for sure. It just keeps us warm through these bitter cold nights.

 

The Jimenez comment I made did warm up a few nights.

[Hugh2]

The Jimenez comment I made did warm up a few nights.

 

Lets jump right back in. Kidding.

[moonslav59]

Lets jump right back in. Kidding.

 

Thank God, you added "Kidding."

 

I'm glad we didn't go $44M/4 for Matz, but I did like him more than when we re-signed Perez and signed Richards.

[Swiharts Ghost]

With Gausman and Correa 2022 we win 100 plus games

[moonslav59]

Maybe our best chance at a FA starting pitcher is Jon Gray.

[moonslav59]

H a p p y

T h a n k s g i v i n g !

Edited November 26, 2021 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

Thank God, you added "Kidding."

 

I'm glad we didn't go $44M/4 for Matz, but I did like him more than when we re-signed Perez and signed Richards.

 

I actually really liked the ideal of signing Matz if it was coupled with signing a good #2 guy as well. We will see what Bloom will do, he casts a wide net but this CBA situation could cause us to wait a while.

[moonslav59]

I actually really liked the ideal of signing Matz if it was coupled with signing a good #2 guy as well. We will see what Bloom will do, he casts a wide net but this CBA situation could cause us to wait a while.

 

I was thinking maybe we’d trade for a pitcher like Montas and sign a Matz/Jon Gray type. Add a decent RPer and utility middle infielder and call it a day.

[moonslav59]

So much for Scherzer locked into the Dodgers.

 

Money talks.

 

One of our biggest questions is how much money will Bloom be "talking?"

 

Is he in on this rush to sign before the CBA expires craze? One might think he may find a bargain as someone is desperate to sign by Dec 1st, but these recent signings don't look like bargains.

[jacksonianmarch]

So much for Scherzer locked into the Dodgers.

 

Money talks.

 

One of our biggest questions is how much money will Bloom be "talking?"

 

Is he in on this rush to sign before the CBA expires craze? One might think he may find a bargain as someone is desperate to sign by Dec 1st, but these recent signings don't look like bargains.

 

No, they're not bargains. But they're quality players getting the money they deserve. Honestly, Gray's signing has the most upside for the money involved. The guy has insane stuff and had reverse expected splits in Colorado. He might be the next Texas Lance Lynn.

[mvp 78]

No, they're not bargains. But they're quality players getting the money they deserve. Honestly, Gray's signing has the most upside for the money involved. The guy has insane stuff and had reverse expected splits in Colorado. He might be the next Texas Lance Lynn.

 

I would say that Gray has a little bit of upside, but I think they are still paying a bit of a premium for that upside. It's an ok contract. I wouldn't absolutely hate it if Bloom gave him that. It's more preferable than some of the other deals handed out.

[moonslav59]

No, they're not bargains. But they're quality players getting the money they deserve. Honestly, Gray's signing has the most upside for the money involved. The guy has insane stuff and had reverse expected splits in Colorado. He might be the next Texas Lance Lynn.

 

I really wanted Gray. I did not expect him to get that much, but I guess that's what he deserves.

 

[mvp 78]

So much for Scherzer locked into the Dodgers.

 

Money talks.

 

One of our biggest questions is how much money will Bloom be "talking?"

 

Is he in on this rush to sign before the CBA expires craze? One might think he may find a bargain as someone is desperate to sign by Dec 1st, but these recent signings don't look like bargains.

 

Bargains rarely come early in the FA period.

[mvp 78]

I was thinking maybe we’d trade for a pitcher like Montas and sign a Matz/Jon Gray type. Add a decent RPer and utility middle infielder and call it a day.

 

Wacha is close to Matz level, but is a slight step down. That has more to do with how I see Matz.