A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts may not be a Hall of Famer, but here's the list of AL shortstops who have won four or more Silver Sluggers in 40+ years of the award:

Ripken, ARod, Jeter, Bogie.

 

Career OPS: ARoid .930, Jetes .817, X-Man .812, Cal .788 (all but Captain Intangibles also spent time at 3B).

 

The man can flat out hit.

 

The SS position went years and years with very few great hitter, but that has changed a lot in the past few decades.

[moonslav59]

MOY AWARD

 

Cora placed fifth in the voting, earning 16 points and one first-place vote. Tampa Bay Rays skipper Kevin Cash won the award for the second straight year. Also finishing ahead of Cora were Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners), Dusty Baker (Houston Astros), and Charlie Montoyo (Toronto Blue Jays).

 

Here are the full results:

 

1. Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays (109 points, 19 first-place votes)

 

2. Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners (71 points, five first-place votes)

 

3. Dusty Baker, Houston Astros (33 points, two first-place votes)

 

4. Charlie Montoyo, Toronto Blue Jays (23 points, three first-place votes)

 

5. Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox (16 points, one first-place vote)

 

6. Tony La Russa, Chicago White Sox (15 points)

 

7. A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers (three points)

 

Tomase opines...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/forget-manager-year-red-sox-have-arguably-best-alex-cora?int

[mvp 78]

Cora getting 5th is an embarrassment, especially behind Montoyo.

[sk7326]

MOY AWARD

 

Cora placed fifth in the voting, earning 16 points and one first-place vote. Tampa Bay Rays skipper Kevin Cash won the award for the second straight year. Also finishing ahead of Cora were Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners), Dusty Baker (Houston Astros), and Charlie Montoyo (Toronto Blue Jays).

 

Here are the full results:

 

1. Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays (109 points, 19 first-place votes)

 

2. Scott Servais, Seattle Mariners (71 points, five first-place votes)

 

3. Dusty Baker, Houston Astros (33 points, two first-place votes)

 

4. Charlie Montoyo, Toronto Blue Jays (23 points, three first-place votes)

 

5. Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox (16 points, one first-place vote)

 

6. Tony La Russa, Chicago White Sox (15 points)

 

7. A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers (three points)

 

Tomase opines...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/forget-manager-year-red-sox-have-arguably-best-alex-cora?int

 

None of the Top 4 guys were "bad" choices, though Cash winning is a little weird in that most of us thought the Rays would be good - and really the masterstroke was Wander Franco looking like an MVP. But exactly what makes a good "managing job" is so opaque that it is hard to get fired up here. I mean it ends up often being the team writers were most wrong about in the preseason. Montoyo is a little weird also in that the Blue Jays made the asterisk playoffs in 2020 - who didn't think they'd be some flavor of good?

[moonslav59]

Cora getting 5th is an embarrassment, especially behind Montoyo.

 

Maybe the trash can beating was involved.

[dgalehouse]

Spinning the News: Bulletin! Red Sox alumni sweep manager of the year awards.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the trash can beating was involved.

 

Yeah, I have to think some voters penalized him for that. They've been known to let personal feelings influence their votes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When half the team caught Covid -- in already their worst month of the season -- few of us (and none of me) thought the Sox ever would get as far as they did. If you don't think Cora was the difference, consider what would've happened if instead Joe Kerrigan or Bobby Valentine were in charge at the time; uniforms would be balled up and thrown into a bonfire, and they'd probably forfeit all of September.

[notin]

None of the Top 4 guys were "bad" choices, though Cash winning is a little weird in that most of us thought the Rays would be good - and really the masterstroke was Wander Franco looking like an MVP. But exactly what makes a good "managing job" is so opaque that it is hard to get fired up here. I mean it ends up often being the team writers were most wrong about in the preseason. Montoyo is a little weird also in that the Blue Jays made the asterisk playoffs in 2020 - who didn't think they'd be some flavor of good?

 

It seems like Manager of the Year is often given to a guy who wins the most with the smallest payroll...

[notin]

Spinning the News: Bulletin! Red Sox alumni sweep manager of the year awards.

 

We had a good chance. Nine of the 30 current MLB managers would be considered Red Sox alumni...

[harmony]

It seems like Manager of the Year is often given to a guy who wins the most with the smallest payroll...

Indeed Alex Cora did a fine job with a club assembled on a $189 million payroll.

[moonslav59]

Indeed Alex Cora did a fine job with a club assembled on a $189 million payroll.

 

Including over $30M on players not on his team.

[moonslav59]

While this thread is about 2022, plans are always made with the future in mind.

 

Here's a quick look at 2023's budget/roster:

 

-$16M Price

 

Free Agents after 2022 (Lux Tax):

$22M JD

$20M Bogey (Opt Out)

$17M Eovaldi

$7M Kike

$7M Vaz

 

While that's a lot of money ($90M) coming off the books, it's also a lot of talent walking out the door.

 

 

[Larry Cook]

How hard does Hang’em Chaim go after schwarber?

 

While the chemistry schwarber brought to the team is undeniable. Resigning him does not seem like a hang’em Chaim type move!

[a700hitter]

Downs turned it around towards the end of the season and has looked solid in the AFL. People shouldn't write him off just yet.

He has some power, but he still has to develop consistency getting on base and refine his fielding.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How hard does Hang’em Chaim go after schwarber?

 

While the chemistry schwarber brought to the team is undeniable. Resigning him does not seem like a hang’em Chaim type move!

 

You mean, like signing anyone for more than two years?

 

This is Bloom's third offseason in Boston; some posters are furiously typing, "ownership mandates, hands tied, overbudget, taxes, penalties, books closed, lost draft picks, Mookie's height... and the ever clairvoyant I know he'll change because this isn't Tampa" -- but is it at least possible this is just who he is... and why he was hired in the third place?

 

Bloom has been right almost from the beginning. He basically admitted the team would suck in 2020 and that they'd be better in 2021. He has never wavered from his longterm goal of building a sustained contender, and fans have no reason to doubt this pursuit. But he is doing it his way.

[moonslav59]

You mean, like signing anyone for more than two years?

 

This is Bloom's third offseason in Boston; some posters are furiously typing, "ownership mandates, hands tied, overbudget, taxes, penalties, books closed, lost draft picks, Mookie's height... and the ever clairvoyant I know he'll change because this isn't Tampa" -- but is it at least possible this is just who he is... and why he was hired in the third place?

 

Bloom has been right almost from the beginning. He basically admitted the team would suck in 2020 and that they'd be better in 2021. He has never wavered from his longterm goal of building a sustained contender, and fans have no reason to doubt this pursuit. But he is doing it his way.

 

In large part, we don't know what Bloom would or will do with a big winter spending budget AND not many roster slots to fill. He's never had either one of those two key components to off season moves.

 

It's not furious typing: it's been a reality.

 

We don't know, if the budget restrictions will remain through this winter or even longer, but it's not like spending up to the tax line every year is a severe restriction. Over time, Bloom should be able to leave his mark on this team, even if he never gets just one open wallet off season.

 

We can already see the improvements to to 40 man roster depth and the farm finally getting back to respectability and balance. We've seen the 26 man roster improve greatly over 2020, but Bloom had over $40M to spend, last winter. We are not sure he'll have near that, this winter. If he does, and he only has 3-4 slots to fill- not 8-10, like last winter, we should get an idea on how he handles larger contractual signings or trades. If he's only given $20-28M to spend, then we'll still not really know what Bloom would or could do with winter spending budgets given to every GM from Theo to DD.

 

I'm thinking he'll do fine, but it's hard to know. Even GMs with good records at spending large, often had bad signing seasons.

[sk7326]

In large part, we don't know what Bloom would or will do with a big winter spending budget AND not many roster slots to fill. He's never had either one of those two key components to off season moves.

 

It's not furious typing: it's been a reality.

 

We don't know, if the budget restrictions will remain through this winter or even longer, but it's not like spending up to the tax line every year is a severe restriction. Over time, Bloom should be able to leave his mark on this team, even if he never gets just one open wallet off season.

 

We can already see the improvements to to 40 man roster depth and the farm finally getting back to respectability and balance. We've seen the 26 man roster improve greatly over 2020, but Bloom had over $40M to spend, last winter. We are not sure he'll have near that, this winter. If he does, and he only has 3-4 slots to fill- not 8-10, like last winter, we should get an idea on how he handles larger contractual signings or trades. If he's only given $20-28M to spend, then we'll still not really know what Bloom would or could do with winter spending budgets given to every GM from Theo to DD.

 

I'm thinking he'll do fine, but it's hard to know. Even GMs with good records at spending large, often had bad signing seasons.

 

Also, just from a "front facing" business perspective, I have serious doubts the Red Sox want to not be in the "star" game AT ALL. While I am not sure where Heyman's sourcing came from on Baez, that was a name that makes sense.

 

- The team has an immediate and near term need for a middle infielder. Regardless of what happens with Bogaerts in the future, there is place for both he and Baez to play in the middle.

- Baez is young enough to be buying mostly prime years, and young enough to project a little improvement. (not Pablo Sandoval was also 29 with a similar argument so there is risk of course, though betting on Baez' body is better)

- Yes, the team's top prospect is a middle infielder ... but he turns 19 in December. If and when he is ready for the show, you figure it out then.

 

Moreover - I can see management being reticent to spend when the team does not justify the investment. But the Red Sox are good - and the players' performance (and Cora's of course) I think warrant management making an impact signing. While I don't think the team wants to make a habit of signing 32 year olds to big expensive deals, signing a 27-29 year old is a different calculus.

[Old Red]

Also, just from a "front facing" business perspective, I have serious doubts the Red Sox want to not be in the "star" game AT ALL. While I am not sure where Heyman's sourcing came from on Baez, that was a name that makes sense.

 

- The team has an immediate and near term need for a middle infielder. Regardless of what happens with Bogaerts in the future, there is place for both he and Baez to play in the middle.

- Baez is young enough to be buying mostly prime years, and young enough to project a little improvement. (not Pablo Sandoval was also 29 with a similar argument so there is risk of course, though betting on Baez' body is better)

- Yes, the team's top prospect is a middle infielder ... but he turns 19 in December. If and when he is ready for the show, you figure it out then.

 

Moreover - I can see management being reticent to spend when the team does not justify the investment. But the Red Sox are good - and the players' performance (and Cora's of course) I think warrant management making an impact signing. While I don't think the team wants to make a habit of signing 32 year olds to big expensive deals, signing a 27-29 year old is a different calculus.

 

If they are going to sign anyone to expensive deals it will be Bogey, and Raffy, and if not it won’t be for anybody right now.

[sk7326]

If they are going to sign anyone to expensive deals it will be Bogey, and Raffy, and if not it won’t be for anybody right now.

 

In general the odds of any big move is low to begin with. That said the 2021 outfit was a good team (probably a little better than management expected) and I expect management to field a team that they expect to be good in 2022.

[mvp 78]

Indeed Alex Cora did a fine job with a club assembled on a $189 million payroll.

 

Expectations were that if everything broke right that they'd be an 86 win team. Nobody projected them to get to the ALCS.

[moonslav59]

Also, just from a "front facing" business perspective, I have serious doubts the Red Sox want to not be in the "star" game AT ALL. While I am not sure where Heyman's sourcing came from on Baez, that was a name that makes sense.

 

- The team has an immediate and near term need for a middle infielder. Regardless of what happens with Bogaerts in the future, there is place for both he and Baez to play in the middle.

- Baez is young enough to be buying mostly prime years, and young enough to project a little improvement. (not Pablo Sandoval was also 29 with a similar argument so there is risk of course, though betting on Baez' body is better)

- Yes, the team's top prospect is a middle infielder ... but he turns 19 in December. If and when he is ready for the show, you figure it out then.

 

Moreover - I can see management being reticent to spend when the team does not justify the investment. But the Red Sox are good - and the players' performance (and Cora's of course) I think warrant management making an impact signing. While I don't think the team wants to make a habit of signing 32 year olds to big expensive deals, signing a 27-29 year old is a different calculus.

 

One could argue one window closes after 2022, as Bogey has an opt out and JD, Eovaldi, Kike and Vaz all can be free agents.

 

I could see an approach where we try to go somewhat big, this winter, to maximize our "1 year window" but while also looking beyond 2022. That might mean no contracts the bring a player beyond age 35, which might greatly restrict which of the best players Bloom could add.

 

Trading top prospects or young players for 1-2 year players goes against the long term view, but maybe Bloom feels he can part with one of two that may be bottle-necked at a position, or one that some other GM values more than he does.

 

I'd sure like to know what the budget is for this winter and next year.

[moonslav59]

Expectations were that if everything broke right that they'd be an 86 win team. Nobody projected them to get to the ALCS.

 

I don't think everyone felt "everything" had to break right to win significantly more than 86 games. We had a ton of big question marks, and the interesting thing is, some of the bigger ones did not actually come out all that well, and we still beat expectations by a lot.

 

Some of the biggest questions before opening day were...

 

1. Can Sale come back in June or July and get near his former self? (He eased into the rotation mid-August, faced some lower teams, early, and did pretty well, but I would not say he fulfilled our hopes.)

 

2. Can Eovaldi stay healthy for a full season and pitch well? (He did both.)

 

3. Can Franchy, Verdugo & Renfroe fill the shoes of JBJ and Beni? Remember, Kike was widely viewed as our 2Bman. (I'd say our OF did very well.)

 

4. Can the rest of our rotation pitch well enough to get us close to 90 wins? (Perez started out very well, Richards did well as a RP'er for a stretch, and Houck missed some time and was used in the pen a lot. Pivetta really helped.)

 

5. Can the pen cobble together a fine season? (I'd say they did, despite some very rough patches at 2-3 points in the season.)

 

6. Can Devers, Bogey and Kike/Arroyo improve on our infield defense of 2019-2020? (I'd say they did not.)

 

7. Was Dalbec a fluke? (Most of the season, it looked like 2020 was a fluke, but then the last 2 months, he was one of MLB's best hitters. Do we know anymore, now?)

 

8. Can Vaz repeat his near .800 OPS from 2019-2020 to help make up for some short-comings on staff-handling? (He did not.)

 

9. Can our bench help? (Marwin, Franchy, Santana and Duran were near to total disasters. Plawecki, Iggy, Shaw, Schwarber and maybe a couple others helped a lot, near the end.)

 

10. Was 2020 a sign of JD's decline, and if yes, how steep? (I'd say JD showed he is not done being productive, but he did not approach his peak numbers.)

 

11. Could Cora bring back the "magic?" (I think he did.)

[notin]

Expectations were that if everything broke right that they'd be an 86 win team. Nobody projected them to get to the ALCS.

 

Ah, but everyone projected the Mariners to miss the postseason and they did. Yet Servais still got more votes than Cora despite meeting and not exceeding his meager expectations. Heck, Montoya was projected (by some) to get his team to the postseason, and he failed, and yet he still got more votes than Cora.

 

I'm thinking the fix was in here...

[sk7326]

One could argue one window closes after 2022, as Bogey has an opt out and JD, Eovaldi, Kike and Vaz all can be free agents.

 

I could see an approach where we try to go somewhat big, this winter, to maximize our "1 year window" but while also looking beyond 2022. That might mean no contracts the bring a player beyond age 35, which might greatly restrict which of the best players Bloom could add.

 

Trading top prospects or young players for 1-2 year players goes against the long term view, but maybe Bloom feels he can part with one of two that may be bottle-necked at a position, or one that some other GM values more than he does.

 

I'd sure like to know what the budget is for this winter and next year.

 

I think due to the CBA uncertainty they are a little bit in flux with some of these questions.

 

That said, for this franchise and market - it's realistic to expect that where they are in a given "window" cycle rotates between ... "could make the playoffs with a break or two" and "I think we can win the whole damn thing" ... at least as April ex ante outlooks.

 

It will be interesting to see what players look for in the CBA negotiation ... if they are smart, they should be focusing on drastically increasing minimum salaries and closing loopholes about monkeying with the end of the roster. I'd be surprised if there was a salary cap but something will happen that forces owners to spend more money on players.

[moonslav59]

I think due to the CBA uncertainty they are a little bit in flux with some of these questions.

 

That said, for this franchise and market - it's realistic to expect that where they are in a given "window" cycle rotates between ... "could make the playoffs with a break or two" and "I think we can win the whole damn thing" ... at least as April ex ante outlooks.

 

It will be interesting to see what players look for in the CBA negotiation ... if they are smart, they should be focusing on drastically increasing minimum salaries and closing loopholes about monkeying with the end of the roster. I'd be surprised if there was a salary cap but something will happen that forces owners to spend more money on players.

 

It's not easy finding players that can maximize this "one year window" while also helping longer term.

 

The very best players want deals that take them beyond prime- some by a lot.

 

Trading for cost-effective and younger players means giving up good prospects, so that is not going to help the longer term outlook.

 

It's not easy.

 

The 2 year deal given to Kike might be what Bloom tries to repeat.

[mvp 78]

Ah, but everyone projected the Mariners to miss the postseason and they did. Yet Servais still got more votes than Cora despite meeting and not exceeding his meager expectations. Heck, Montoya was projected (by some) to get his team to the postseason, and he failed, and yet he still got more votes than Cora.

 

I'm thinking the fix was in here...

 

1. I think Cora has a black mark against him.

 

2. As long as the Sox have a high payroll, the manager will never with the award.

[sk7326]

It's not easy finding players that can maximize this "one year window" while also helping longer term.

 

The very best players want deals that take them beyond prime- some by a lot.

 

Trading for cost-effective and younger players means giving up good prospects, so that is not going to help the longer term outlook.

 

It's not easy.

 

The 2 year deal given to Kike might be what Bloom tries to repeat.

 

Yes - though that is not a reason not to sign them necessarily ... depends on what the "non prime" looks like. That is one place where signing Carlos Correa for 10 years has a strong business case. The bat will still play if he has to move off of shortstop. Someone like Baez is certainly riskier.

[Bellhorn04]

1. I think Cora has a black mark against him.

 

2. As long as the Sox have a high payroll, the manager will never with the award.

 

Last 5 AL MOY winner's teams - all low payroll teams:

 

TB

TB

MIN

OAK

MIN

 

Looks like the last time the manager of the WS champs won the award was Ozzie Guillen in 2005.

 

It's a joke.

[moonslav59]

Yes - though that is not a reason not to sign them necessarily ... depends on what the "non prime" looks like. That is one place where signing Carlos Correa for 10 years has a strong business case. The bat will still play if he has to move off of shortstop. Someone like Baez is certainly riskier.

 

Yes, but is it more riskier giving Correa $320M/10 or Baez $110M/5?