A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Last 5 AL MOY winner's teams - all low payroll teams:

 

TB

TB

MIN

OAK

MIN

 

Looks like the last time the manager of the WS champs won the award was Ozzie Guillen in 2005.

 

It's a joke.

 

They should just rename the award: MWGMOC

 

"Manager Who Gets the Most Out of Crap"

[mvp 78]

They should just rename the award: MWGMOC

 

"Manager Who Gets the Most Out of Crap"

 

MWGMOCP

 

Manager Who Gets the Most Out of a Crappy Payroll

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but is it more riskier giving Correa $320M/10 or Baez $110M/5?

 

$320M, that's easy.

 

We're early in the game, but it remains to be seen whether any $300 million contract will prove to be worth it.

 

As far as I can tell, the most expensive contract that's been clearly worth it is Scherzer's $210 million.

[mvp 78]

Last 5 AL MOY winner's teams - all low payroll teams:

 

TB

TB

MIN

OAK

MIN

 

Looks like the last time the manager of the WS champs won the award was Ozzie Guillen in 2005.

 

It's a joke.

 

The offseason award with the least amount of value. Hey, at least we don't have any fire Cora grumblings right now.

[moonslav59]

MWGMOCP

 

Manager Who Gets the Most Out of a Crappy Payroll

 

Yes, the "P" is essential.

[moonslav59]

Rule 5 Players to be protected will be announce by tomorrow.

 

Here is a breakdown of Sox eligible players:

 

Certains:

Bello

Downs

 

Near Certains:

Winckowski

Santos

 

Borderlines:

Feltman

Crawford

Cottam

Jimenez

Ward

 

Long Shots:

Fitzgerald

German

Kelly

Rafaela

Ort

T Reed

Granberg

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Latest reports include the Red Sox among teams "interested" in Chris Taylor, the all-purpose All-Star in his 30s who rejected LA's QO. The article admits Taylor would presumably cost much more than Kike's 2 years for $14 million contract. Even if Taylor would agree to an ERod-like three for $45 (forget about five) -- does anyone think he's the guy the Sox pick to pay large... in terms of three times as much as they gave the versatile Hernandez?

 

Personally, I'd bank on Schwarber's production over Taylor's for the next four or five years, but could Taylor play second base full-time? He was a negative DWAR this season, struck out 28.7% of his at bats, and led the NL in Ks a few years ago. He's not as good as Baez, but may agree to play for a lesser AAV...

[moonslav59]

Latest reports include the Red Sox among teams "interested" in Chris Taylor, the all-purpose All-Star in his 30s who rejected LA's QO. The article admits Taylor would presumably cost much more than Kike's 2 years for $14 million contract. Even if Taylor would agree to an ERod-like three for $45 (forget about five) -- does anyone think he's the guy the Sox pick to pay large... in terms of three times as much as they gave the versatile Hernandez?

 

Personally, I'd bank on Schwarber's production over Taylor's for the next four or five years, but could Taylor play second base full-time? He was a negative DWAR this season, struck out 28.7% of his at bats, and led the NL in Ks a few years ago. He's not as good as Baez, but may agree to play for a lesser AAV...

 

If reports of Baez or Taylor are true, we must really not trust Arroyo.

 

I admit I don't know much about Taylor's defense, but if he's good, I'd think about him as a lesser costing middle infielder than Baez.

 

I don't like losing a draft pick on Taylor, unless he's way cheaper than Baez.

 

All of this aside, if we are spending so much on 2B and possibly a SS solution beyond 2022, then we better have enough budget space left for pitching- or some trades line up.

 

We need 3 pitchers before we need a 2Bman, IMO.

[notin]

Latest reports include the Red Sox among teams "interested" in Chris Taylor, the all-purpose All-Star in his 30s who rejected LA's QO. The article admits Taylor would presumably cost much more than Kike's 2 years for $14 million contract. Even if Taylor would agree to an ERod-like three for $45 (forget about five) -- does anyone think he's the guy the Sox pick to pay large... in terms of three times as much as they gave the versatile Hernandez?

 

Personally, I'd bank on Schwarber's production over Taylor's for the next four or five years, but could Taylor play second base full-time? He was a negative DWAR this season, struck out 28.7% of his at bats, and led the NL in Ks a few years ago. He's not as good as Baez, but may agree to play for a lesser AAV...

 

Schwarber in LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2B.

 

They could fit him in, but it's not exactly a stellar defensive outfield...

[mvp 78]

Latest reports include the Red Sox among teams "interested" in Chris Taylor, the all-purpose All-Star in his 30s who rejected LA's QO. The article admits Taylor would presumably cost much more than Kike's 2 years for $14 million contract. Even if Taylor would agree to an ERod-like three for $45 (forget about five) -- does anyone think he's the guy the Sox pick to pay large... in terms of three times as much as they gave the versatile Hernandez?

 

Personally, I'd bank on Schwarber's production over Taylor's for the next four or five years, but could Taylor play second base full-time? He was a negative DWAR this season, struck out 28.7% of his at bats, and led the NL in Ks a few years ago. He's not as good as Baez, but may agree to play for a lesser AAV...

 

He's a QO guy. They don't try to sign Taylor IMO.

[mvp 78]

Schwarber in LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2B.

 

They could fit him in, but it's not exactly a stellar defensive outfield...

 

Schwarber would be better as a DH. I like him, but I don't see the Sox re-signing him.

[notin]

He's a QO guy. They don't try to sign Taylor IMO.

 

Agreed.

 

I am still waiting for the Sox to be linked to Cesar Hernandez, who makes more sense than Taylor for a slew of reasons....

[notin]

Schwarber would be better as a DH. I like him, but I don't see the Sox re-signing him.

 

I doubt he comes back, but if he does, it won't be as a DH for 2022. He'll need a glove for at least one year...

[mvp 78]

If reports of Baez or Taylor are true, we must really not trust Arroyo.

 

I admit I don't know much about Taylor's defense, but if he's good, I'd think about him as a lesser costing middle infielder than Baez.

 

I don't like losing a draft pick on Taylor, unless he's way cheaper than Baez.

 

All of this aside, if we are spending so much on 2B and possibly a SS solution beyond 2022, then we better have enough budget space left for pitching- or some trades line up.

 

We need 3 pitchers before we need a 2Bman, IMO.

 

Taylor's UZR/150 was not good this year at any position except for corner OF. He's 31 already. I don't know how much meat is on the bone.

[mvp 78]

I doubt he comes back, but if he does, it won't be as a DH for 2022. He'll need a glove for at least one year...

 

Unfortunately.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I am still waiting for the Sox to be linked to Cesar Hernandez, who makes more sense than Taylor for a slew of reasons....

 

Yes, they just need a capable 2b who can actually stay healthy for a season. Arroyo just isn't that guy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We may just have to settle for having interest in the Red Sox having interest in every free agent or guy on the trade block until the CBA is settled. In the meantime, be prepared for bored reporters to show continued interest in any team leaking rumors to try to keep fans interested.

[notin]

We may just have to settle for having interest in the Red Sox having interest in every free agent or guy on the trade block until the CBA is settled. In the meantime, be prepared for bored reporters to show continued interest in any team leaking rumors to try to keep fans interested.

 

IThe last two offseasons have moved along at glacial paces. I fully expect this one to as well, but so far, even the small amount of activity to date has been surprising...

[Bellhorn04]

IThe last two offseasons have moved along at glacial paces. I fully expect this one to as well, but so far, even the small amount of activity to date has been surprising...

 

And Bloom is rather glacial himself.

[mvp 78]

We may just have to settle for having interest in the Red Sox having interest in every free agent or guy on the trade block until the CBA is settled. In the meantime, be prepared for bored reporters to show continued interest in any team leaking rumors to try to keep fans interested.

 

That's the linkage to Baez and Semien IMO.

[mvp 78]

IThe last two offseasons have moved along at glacial paces. I fully expect this one to as well, but so far, even the small amount of activity to date has been surprising...

 

I'm predicting 3 months of darkness.

 

I believe the Rule 5 draft is suspended if there is a lockout. We'll see if a lockout happens on 12/1 or soon thereafter.

[moonslav59]

Taylor's UZR/150 was not good this year at any position except for corner OF. He's 31 already. I don't know how much meat is on the bone.

 

I think he was a little better before 2021, and he plays so many positions, it might be hard using such small sample sizes to judge his level of defense at any one position.

 

I checked out his fangraphs page:

 

UZR/150

2B: -12.4 career (never really a plus)

SS: -4.2 career (was plus 2020 & 2021) most innings of any position

3B: -7.0 career (was plus every year until 2021- not many innings)

CF: -8.3 career (big minus last 4 years) 2nd most innings played

LF: +11.0 career (plus every year) 3rd most innings, career

RF: +9.3 career (not many innings here)

 

DRS

-4 SS (1992 innings)

-2 CF (1285 innings)

+13 LF (1144 innings)

+2 2B (773 innings)

-3 3B (189)

+1 RF (86)

 

I'd pass on Taylor. Maybe spend the money on extending Kike.

[mvp 78]

I'd be into extending Kiké. He could be the starting CFer for the next 4-5 years.

[Old Red]

I'd be into extending Kiké. He could be the starting CFer for the next 4-5 years.

 

Let’s pump the brakes again on Kike. He did a good job last year, and when he was hot he was hot, but only averaged 250 last year, and is a career 242 hitter. Next 4-5 years as the starting CF? No, and the Sox can do better than that, and NO he’s not the best CF the Red Sox ever had like Moon claims he is, so pump the brakes them pump them again.

[mvp 78]

Let’s pump the brakes again on Kike. He did a good job last year, and when he was hot he was hot, but only averaged 250 last year, and is a career 242 hitter. Next 4-5 years as the starting CF? No, and the Sox can do better than that, and NO he’s not the best CF the Red Sox ever had like Moon claims he is, so pump the brakes them pump them again.

 

JBJ only had one season for BOS with a higher UZR than what Kiké did in 2021. There was only one season that JBJ had a higher fWAR than Kiké did in 2021. Maybe you need to ease off the brakes a little?

[moonslav59]

Let’s pump the brakes again on Kike. He did a good job last year, and when he was hot he was hot, but only averaged 250 last year, and is a career 242 hitter. Next 4-5 years as the starting CF? No, and the Sox can do better than that, and NO he’s not the best CF the Red Sox ever had like Moon claims he is, so pump the brakes them pump them again.

 

I said the best defensive CF we ever had.

 

Of course, other had longer careers, but I was talking about the best I have seen. Lynn and JBJ were close, as were a couple others, but to me, Kike looked the best ON D!

[Old Red]

JBJ only had one season for BOS with a higher UZR than what Kiké did in 2021. There was only one season that JBJ had a higher fWAR than Kiké did in 2021. Maybe you need to ease off the brakes a little?

 

I could care less about all the analytics that you guys throw out there about anybody. Player, or position. All I said was that the Sox could do better than Kike as the CF for the next 4-5 years. What does JBJ have to do with the next 4-5 years?

[moonslav59]

I could care less about all the analytics that you guys throw out there about anybody. Player, or position. All I said was that the Sox could do better than Kike as the CF for the next 4-5 years. What does JBJ have to do with the next 4-5 years?

 

I was responding to you claiming I said he was the best CF'er ever.

 

I never brought up analytics, so I'm not sure what "you guys" means.

 

I stated my opinion on Kike's defense. It's just an opinion. (That is actually not supported by analytics.) I respect anyone who thinks Lynn or JBJ were better or others were as good.

 

This board is for opinions.

 

Not wanting Kike as our CF'er for the next 4-5 years is a valid opinion, too.

Edited November 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I said the best defensive CF we ever had.

 

Of course, other had longer careers, but I was talking about the best I have seen. Lynn and JBJ were close, as were a couple others, but to me, Kike looked the best ON D!

 

Like I said you are the only one I heard say that about Kike. We need to get others on here who have 50+ years watching the Red Sox, and see if they agree with you that Kike is the best defensive CF the Sox have ever had.

[Old Red]

I was responding to you claiming I said he was the best CF'er ever.

 

I never brought up analytics, so I'm not sure what "you guys" means.

 

I stated my opinion on Kike's defense. It's just an opinion. I respect anyone who thinks Lynn or JBJ were better or others were as good.

 

This board is for opinions.

 

Not wanting Kike as our CF'er for the next 4-5 years is a valid opinion, too.

 

Moon I wasn’t responding to you on this.