A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

E I'll give Dalbec the benefit of the doubt, as he was showing some better signs of making contact later in the year.

 

While Dalbec did great the last 2 months of the season he went hitless in the playoffs (0-12).

 

Renfroe hit very well, at the end of 2021, too, and did better than Dalbec in the playoffs. (6-20 v NYY & TBR and 1-16 v HOU)

 

Renfroe:

.936 last 42 games (175 PAs)

.859 last 125 games.

 

I like Dalbec more than Renfroe, too, but let's not cheapen what Renfroe did with the bat and arm.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox were to deal with the on-the-verge-of-teardown Reds, one outfielder they should consider is Jesse Winker. While not an upgrade defensively, Winker has a career OPS of .888 -- higher than anyone in Boston's lineup. His lefty bat could replace Schwarber's (if he isn't resigned). Winker's #1 most Similar Batter on bb-ref is Vlad Guerrero Jr...

[mvp 78]

While Dalbec did great the last 2 months of the season he went hitless in the playoffs (0-12).

 

 

Is 12 at bats over the course of 11 games a good sample?

[mvp 78]

I am on the side of trading him if he reaches $7.5 Mil in arbitration. I like the idea of Marte for 3 years although he may be too costly and interfere with pitching acquisitions. Renfroe will be no more than an average defensive outfielder who will struggle to hit playoff quality pitching. At $3 Mil it makes sense but ay $7.5 there are other options.

 

That's why the Rays moved on from Renfroe. He was going to get paid more than he'd reasonably earn in FA.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox were to deal with the on-the-verge-of-teardown Reds, one outfielder they should consider is Jesse Winker. While not an upgrade defensively, Winker has a career OPS of .888 -- higher than anyone in Boston's lineup. His lefty bat could replace Schwarber's (if he isn't resigned). Winker's #1 most Similar Batter on bb-ref is Vlad Guerrero Jr...

 

The Reds and A's seem to be the teams everyone thinks will be out to dump salary. They both have some very nice talent, some of which play positions we already have filled- like 1B and 3B, but I suppose we could trade Dalbec, casas or move Devers to 1B.

 

Here are the salaries for 2022:

 

Cincy

$50/2 Votto (1B) $22.5M lux tax

$38/2 Moustakas (2B) $16M lux tax

$34/3 Suarez (3B) $9.4M lux

$10.9/1 S Gray (SP) $10.9M

$8M/1 Akiyama (OF) $7M

Arbs:

~8M Castillo (2nd of 3) SP

~6M Winker (2nd of 3) OF

~5M Mahle (2nd of 3) P

~3M Naquin (3 of 3) RF

 

OAK

$14.3M Andrus (SS) + option $15M lux tax

$7.6M Piscotty (OF) option

Arbs:

~$11M M Olsen (1B) 2nd of 3

~$10M Manaea (SP) 3 of 3

~$10M Chapman (3B) 2 of 3

~$8.5M Bassit (SP) 3 of 3

~$5.5M Montas (SP) 2 of 3

~$3M Laureano (CF) 1 of 3

~$3M Trivino (Closer) 2 of 4

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

ERod rejected his QO, so we get a draft pick, if we don't sign him or lose it by signing someone else's QO FA.

 

@redsoxstats

The Red Sox now have draft picks #24, #41, #57, #70. If they sign a player with a qualifying offer they lose #57.

[Hugh2]

The stats on Dalbec struggling with velocity concern me. Makes sense that he can get his stats up over a 162 game season but not surprising he struggled in the playoffs when teams are going to just throw velocity at you all day.

 

He's fine, I like him, and with Casas hopefully ready sometime between mid 2022 to early 2023 he's fine to start 2022 at 1B. He might improve his stock there, and if he regresses then hopefully we'll have signed Schwarber and we can plug him there until 2023 when he can DH and take over for JDM.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

The Red Sox now have draft picks #24, #41, #57, #70. If they sign a player with a qualifying offer they lose #57.

 

I thought they lose their 2nd pick, even if it a comp pick.

[mvp 78]

I thought they lose their 2nd pick, even if it a comp pick.

 

They can't lose the Fabian pick. That one is unaffected by QO's.

[moonslav59]

They can't lose the Fabian pick. That one is unaffected by QO's.

 

This seems to contradict...

 

A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a Draft pick immediately following Competitive Balance Round B. The 13 clubs that fall into this category during the 2020-21 offseason are the Angels, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox

 

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.

 

Qualifying Offer | Glossary | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

The Red Sox now have draft picks #24, #41, #57, #70. If they sign a player with a qualifying offer they lose #57.

 

Is pick 41 for Fabian?

 

Is the ERod sandwich pick listed? if so, which one?

 

[notin]

Is pick 41 for Fabian?

 

Is the ERod sandwich pick listed? if so, which one?

 

 

70, I believe

[moonslav59]

70, I believe

 

I thought the sandwich was after round 1.

[moonslav59]

No ERod really puts a big hole in our rotation.

 

Out of our 812 IP by starters, this year, we lose nearly half:

 

157 ERod

110 Richards

100 Perez

2 Peacock

 

369 IP (over 45%)

 

Maybe Whitlock (or Houck) can eat 140-160 of those, next year, but we still need a 180-200 inning guy.

 

We also lose these RP'er IP (about 220 IP):

62 Ottavino

37 Andriese

26 Richards

25 Robles

20 Workman

14 Perez

14 Brice

~22 others

Edited November 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Is pick 41 for Fabian?

 

Is the ERod sandwich pick listed? if so, which one?

 

 

They drafted Fabian #40 last year.

 

Based on the MLB’s rules, Boston will receive a compensatory draft pick next year. It will be No. 41 overall, just one spot lower than where they took Fabian.

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/11/if-boston-red-sox-sign-a-qualified-free-agent-their-41st-overall-pick-second-round-in-2022-is-protected.html

[moonslav59]

They drafted Fabian #40 last year.

 

Based on the MLB’s rules, Boston will receive a compensatory draft pick next year. It will be No. 41 overall, just one spot lower than where they took Fabian.

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/11/if-boston-red-sox-sign-a-qualified-free-agent-their-41st-overall-pick-second-round-in-2022-is-protected.html

 

That's nice.

 

So, are you sure about where ERod's pick will be?

 

Are you sure, if we sign someone with QO, we don't lose our 2nd highest pick?

[mvp 78]

I thought the sandwich was after round 1.

 

The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team

 

Under the 2017-21 CBA, six clubs will be awarded picks in Round A based on a formula that considers winning percentage and revenue. Those six teams will pick in Round A in 2017, 2019 and 2021. The remaining teams -- estimated to be between six and eight -- will pick in Round B in those years. The groups of teams, which will not change for the duration of the 2017-21 CBA, will switch picking in Round A and B in alternating years based on their initial assignment of round in 2017.

[jacksonianmarch]

The way the CBA is currently written (maybe it will change), if a team signs a QO offered player, they give up their second highest draft pick. That Fabian pick will be in play if the sox sign a QO offered guy. It isnt their second rounder that'll go

[mvp 78]

The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team

 

Under the 2017-21 CBA, six clubs will be awarded picks in Round A based on a formula that considers winning percentage and revenue. Those six teams will pick in Round A in 2017, 2019 and 2021. The remaining teams -- estimated to be between six and eight -- will pick in Round B in those years. The groups of teams, which will not change for the duration of the 2017-21 CBA, will switch picking in Round A and B in alternating years based on their initial assignment of round in 2017.

 

From the CBA: "if a club's second highest selection is a selection exempt from forfeiture, the Club shall forfeit its next highest available selection."

 

No matter what, pick 41 is exempt.

[mvp 78]

The way the CBA is currently written (maybe it will change), if a team signs a QO offered player, they give up their second highest draft pick. That Fabian pick will be in play if the sox sign a QO offered guy. It isnt their second rounder that'll go

 

You are wrong.

[mvp 78]

Here's a link to the CBA: https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf

[jacksonianmarch]

That's not what is being reported for the Mets who will get a pick for Rocker's lack of signage.

 

"Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. While a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, any additional first-round picks are eligible"

[jacksonianmarch]

MLB qualifying offer rules explained

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Any fan can understand and appreciate the excitement of a big offseason addition for his or her favorite team. But sometimes it feels like you need to be schooled in contract law to understand the ins and outs of baseball's Collective Bargaining Agreement, especially in regard to free agents, qualifying

 

Actually, looks like I am right

[moonslav59]

MLB qualifying offer rules explained

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Any fan can understand and appreciate the excitement of a big offseason addition for his or her favorite team. But sometimes it feels like you need to be schooled in contract law to understand the ins and outs of baseball's Collective Bargaining Agreement, especially in regard to free agents, qualifying

 

Actually, looks like I am right

 

That article is from 2017.

 

I'm not doubting its veracity, but mvp knows his stuff.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have also read multiple stories about the Mets predicament in signing players this offseason and the fact that they'd lose a pretty high 1st rounder to do it. Unless everyone in the baseball community is wrong here, I think I am right

[mvp 78]

Per the CBA: With exception of draft selections forfeited by the Club pursuant to Major League Rule 3©(4), all of a Club's draft selections will be counted in determining the Club's second highest selection...

 

What is the exception???

 

Rule 3©(4): If a Club fails to sign a player selected before the conclusion of the tenth round...

 

[jacksonianmarch]

AHHHHH. This is why the Mets are stuck. Their 1st pick in next year's draft is the Rocker pick, making their 1st rounder for sucking ass in 2021 subject to forfeiture. Okay, that makes sense

[mvp 78]

I have also read multiple stories about the Mets predicament in signing players this offseason and the fact that they'd lose a pretty high 1st rounder to do it. Unless everyone in the baseball community is wrong here, I think I am right

 

You're going to have to show your work here.

[mvp 78]

That article is from 2017.

 

I'm not doubting its veracity, but mvp knows his stuff.

 

It's not that I "know" my stuff. I just pulled up the CBA and the MLB rule book to see what it said. A lot of the stuff I've seen written in articles is fairly vague and doesn't get into the nuts and bolts about why things are happening. This is because sports journalists are lazy.

[moonslav59]

It's not that I "know" my stuff. I just pulled up the CBA and the MLB rule book to see what it said. A lot of the stuff I've seen written in articles is fairly vague and doesn't get into the nuts and bolts about why things are happening. This is because sports journalists are lazy.

 

Just take the rare compliment.