A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

First of all, the "dead money" HRam gave DD a 2.6 bWAR in 2016 and 2.4 overall under DD. (3.0 fWAR in 2016 and 2.3 overall). He was a negative under Ben and a plus under DD.

 

It should probably also be noted that Hanley's contract carried that nasty vesting option which, if triggered, would have cost the team another $22 mill. DD and the team had to release him -- under false pretenses, some said.

[moonslav59]

It should probably also be noted that Hanley's contract carried that nasty vesting option which, if triggered, would have cost the team another $22 mill. DD and the team had to release him -- under false pretenses, some said.

 

I looked like that, but as the rest of HRam's career went, it looked like the right choice.

[moonslav59]

Isn't that exactly what you're doing?

 

Yes, and who is downplaying the 2018 season or the 3 consecutive division wins?

 

We "don't care for" those seasons?

[notin]

Yes, and who is downplaying the 2018 season or the 3 consecutive division wins?

 

We "don't care for" those seasons?

 

We all enjoyed them, but there’s no need to become devoted followers of the GM and cry blasphemy every time mentions his successor in the off-season when he’s literally the only active member of the organization…

[dgalehouse]

The " Smart Brothers" double team.

[notin]

The " Smart Brothers" double team.

 

And about now is when you tell us to stop debating about a subject you started, right?

[moonslav59]

And about now is when you tell us to stop debating about a subject you started, right?

 

If I disagree, am I no longer a "smart brother?"

[moonslav59]

Decision on Renfroe?

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/why-hunter-renfroes-future-red-sox-looks-murky-big-raise-looming?int

[moonslav59]

"He's comfortable in Boston," Boras said. "He wanted to be the best version of himself when hitting free agency."

 

"The ownership there supported this decision and told him they're going to make every effort to make the team even more competitive, so he decided to return," Boras said.

 

By opting in to the final year of his deal, Martinez also protected himself from potentially making less money on a qualifying offer from Boston.

-Jake Levin

 

[a700hitter]

I hope that I get a Bloom Jersey for Christmas. I will give my Dave jersey to Good Will.

[moonslav59]

Could the Sox possibly go big on 2 players and call it a done off-season?

 

For example, could we sign Semien and Scherzer?

 

1. Kike CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS (2B?)

4. Semien 2B (SS?)

5. JD DH

6. Verdugo LF

7. Renfroe RF

8. Dalbec (Casas) 1B

9. Vaz C

Bench: Arroyo, Duran/Locastro, Plawecki/Wong (eventually, Casas or Downs)

 

Scherzer, Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold

Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, DHern, Sawamura, Davis/Valdez/Feltman/Bazardo/Crawford/Winckowski

[Bellhorn04]

Could the Sox possibly go big on 2 players and call it a done off-season?

 

For example, could we sign Semien and Scherzer?

 

1. Kike CF

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS (2B?)

4. Semien 2B (SS?)

5. JD DH

6. Verdugo LF

7. Renfroe RF

8. Dalbec (Casas) 1B

9. Vaz C

Bench: Arroyo, Duran/Locastro, Plawecki/Wong (eventually, Casas or Downs)

 

Scherzer, Eovaldi, Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold

Houck, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier, DHern, Sawamura, Davis/Valdez/Feltman/Bazardo/Crawford/Winckowski

 

That would probably work for me. But Scherzer/Semien = about 60 million AAV.

[moonslav59]

That would probably work for me. But Scherzer/Semien = about 60 million AAV.

 

When you look at our trends in spending, we are about due for a going over the line for a year or two.

 

I'm not saying we will, but an argument can be made that 2022 is "the year" to do it.

 

Kike, Eovaldi, JD and Bogey are one their last years.

Sale should be healthy and is only going to get older.

Devers and a few others are nearing peak prime years.

Whitlock & Houck can be expected to give us more innings than 2021.

 

We have a lot of ifs, and we have a few holed to fill, but does 2023 look any better? I know we have Price's deal coming off the books that winter, but we will be losing a lot of talent, or we'll have to spend very big to keep them or replace them in kind.

[oldtimer]

Decision on Renfroe?

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/why-hunter-renfroes-future-red-sox-looks-murky-big-raise-looming?int

 

I am on the side of trading him if he reaches $7.5 Mil in arbitration. I like the idea of Marte for 3 years although he may be too costly and interfere with pitching acquisitions. Renfroe will be no more than an average defensive outfielder who will struggle to hit playoff quality pitching. At $3 Mil it makes sense but ay $7.5 there are other options.

[oldtimer]

"He's comfortable in Boston," Boras said. "He wanted to be the best version of himself when hitting free agency."

 

"The ownership there supported this decision and told him they're going to make every effort to make the team even more competitive, so he decided to return," Boras said.

 

By opting in to the final year of his deal, Martinez also protected himself from potentially making less money on a qualifying offer from Boston.

-Jake Levin

 

 

This is disingenuous of Boras. JDM is staying because he didn't think it likely he could get a better deal, especially with the CBA in question. He also knew that the Sox were likely to go after Schwaber to fill the position. No Sox front office executive is going to promise to work to make the team better, presumably by spending extra money, to make JDM feel more comfortable staying. Just more oras hokum.

[Bellhorn04]

Renfroe will be no more than an average defensive outfielder who will struggle to hit playoff quality pitching.

 

oldtimer, our whole team failed to hit the last 3 games against Houston.

[notin]

I am on the side of trading him if he reaches $7.5 Mil in arbitration. I like the idea of Marte for 3 years although he may be too costly and interfere with pitching acquisitions. Renfroe will be no more than an average defensive outfielder who will struggle to hit playoff quality pitching. At $3 Mil it makes sense but ay $7.5 there are other options.

 

 

Marte won’t be an option at $7.5mill. Even the cash-strapped Pirates and Marlins both paid him more than that. Not to mention his postseason track record is hardly any better than Renfroe’s and he’s 3 years older.

 

If the Sox do move Renfroe, it might mean Duran is getting a chance as opposed to clearing money for Marte. Not sure OF is where the Sox look for position players…

[moonslav59]

oldtimer, our whole team failed to hit the last 3 games against Houston.

 

Making definitive decisions based on one short playoff season is not a winning strategy.

 

It's the flip on signing guys like Pearce and Pablo because the did hit quality pitching for a small sample size or two.

[notin]

oldtimer, our whole team failed to hit the last 3 games against Houston.

 

Not to mention, Renfroe hit .294 with a .368 OBP in the ALDS against Tampa. Using the Houston series as proof of his struggles is just selective sampling, since Tampa was also “playoff caliber” pitching, one would assume…

[notin]

Making definitive decisions based on one short playoff season is not a winning strategy.

 

It's the flip on signing guys like Pearce and Pablo because the did hit quality pitching for a small sample size or two.

 

With the caveat the Pearce received a short and much less risky deal…

[moonslav59]

With the caveat the Pearce received a short and much less risky deal…

 

True, but it was based on a couple week sample size.

 

We're only talking about one more year for Renfroe, too, as we can deny arb in 2023, if we want.

[notin]

True, but it was based on a couple week sample size.

 

We're only talking about one more year for Renfroe, too, as we can deny arb in 2023, if we want.

 

I do think we as fans believe MLB GMs make decisions with postseason stats as a much larger factor than actually happens.

 

This game has become so insanely analytical, such using numbers that indicate the quality of contact off the bat over whether or not it was lucky enough to find green in the outfield. Do we really think GMs and scouts and whoever discuss players using barrel rate, exit velocity, and launch angle along with postseason batting average?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do think we as fans believe MLB GMs make decisions with postseason stats as a much larger factor than actually happens.

 

This game has become so insanely analytical, such using numbers that indicate the quality of contact off the bat over whether or not it was lucky enough to find green in the outfield. Do we really think GMs and scouts and whoever discuss players using barrel rate, exit velocity, and launch angle along with postseason batting average?

 

Doesn't every franchise have an entire department dedicated to doing this? As for a totally biased answer based on my own observations, maybe Bloom spends more time doing due diligence (or at least using the phrase) than Dombrowski did in Boston... at least, in consummating deals; Dombro seemed to land some targets before a lot of other GMs, while Bloom has shown more patience, while others are acting hasty... in retrospect.

 

I don't think the Steve Pearce contract was solely a reward for his '18 postseason. In the regular season, he was really good at his job, too: as a platoon specialist, Pearce hit .337 with a 1.052 OPS vs. lefthanded starting pitchers. He also cranked three homers in one game vs. the Yankees at the beginning of August.

[notin]

Doesn't every franchise have an entire department dedicated to doing this? As for a totally biased answer based on my own observations, maybe Bloom spends more time doing due diligence (or at least using the phrase) than Dombrowski did in Boston... at least, in consummating deals; Dombro seemed to land some targets before a lot of other GMs, while Bloom has shown more patience, while others are acting hasty... in retrospect.

 

I don't think the Steve Pearce contract was solely a reward for his '18 postseason. In the regular season, he was really good at his job, too: as a platoon specialist, Pearce hit .337 with a 1.052 OPS vs. lefthanded starting pitchers. He also cranked three homers in one game vs. the Yankees at the beginning of August.

 

Of course they all do - and the part you omitted (postseason batting average) probably NEVER comes up. But for some reason, we as fans think postseason stats have lead to any bad contract that went to a player who did have a good postseason. I think in the case of Sandoval, for example, age was a much, much bigger factor. Also his defensive metrics, which were good at the time, played a bigger part than his 3 home run game against Verlander. And probably other factors.

 

I find it hard to believe anyone would be willing to risk $90mill betting on the future of a player based on one or two weeks. People who make those kinds of risks don’t hold on to their money long enough to buy MLB teams in the first place…

[Bellhorn04]

True, but it was based on a couple week sample size.

 

To be fair, Pearce did have an .890 OPS in the 2018 regular season, including .959 against lefties.

[moonslav59]

Doesn't every franchise have an entire department dedicated to doing this? As for a totally biased answer based on my own observations, maybe Bloom spends more time doing due diligence (or at least using the phrase) than Dombrowski did in Boston... at least, in consummating deals; Dombro seemed to land some targets before a lot of other GMs, while Bloom has shown more patience, while others are acting hasty... in retrospect.

 

I don't think the Steve Pearce contract was solely a reward for his '18 postseason. In the regular season, he was really good at his job, too: as a platoon specialist, Pearce hit .337 with a 1.052 OPS vs. lefthanded starting pitchers. He also cranked three homers in one game vs. the Yankees at the beginning of August.

 

I don't think Pearce had the profile to get as much as we signed him for.

 

It wasnt a massive overpay, and it was one year, but I think the playoffs upped his pay.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, Pearce did have an .890 OPS in the 2018 regular season, including .959 against lefties.

 

He was decent. He had a couple other good years but was .771 before 2018.

[oldtimer]

Marte won’t be an option at $7.5mill. Even the cash-strapped Pirates and Marlins both paid him more than that. Not to mention his postseason track record is hardly any better than Renfroe’s and he’s 3 years older.

 

If the Sox do move Renfroe, it might mean Duran is getting a chance as opposed to clearing money for Marte. Not sure OF is where the Sox look for position players…

 

Even though I like Marte, as I think he is a batter fielder and hitter than Renfroe despite being older, I did say he might be too expensive for the Sox. They might find someone else instead. The Sox had two power hitters who definitely had big holes in their swings. Dalbec hardly was used and Renfroe was overmatched. I believe what I see and don't refer to the stats for the last 3 years to override my judgment. Renfroe is at best a fill in player. I'll give Dalbec the benefit of the doubt, as he was showing some better signs of making contact later in the year. Renfroe at $7.5 mil is no bargain and I think Bloom knows it.

[moonslav59]

Even though I like Marte, as I think he is a batter fielder and hitter than Renfroe despite being older, I did say he might be too expensive for the Sox. They might find someone else instead. The Sox had two power hitters who definitely had big holes in their swings. Dalbec hardly was used and Renfroe was overmatched. I believe what I see and don't refer to the stats for the last 3 years to override my judgment. Renfroe is at best a fill in player. I'll give Dalbec the benefit of the doubt, as he was showing some better signs of making contact later in the year. Renfroe at $7.5 mil is no bargain and I think Bloom knows it.

 

I'd really like to upgrade RF defense, but it's not easy finding someone that can offset Renfroe's bat and arm for just $7.5M.

 

If we trade for someone, who do we give up?

[moonslav59]

ERod rejected his QO, so we get a draft pick, if we don't sign him or lose it by signing someone else's QO FA.