A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

He's well rested.

 

And no longer battle-tested...

[notin]

If we have a $40M winter spending budget like last winter's "blueprint," and we spend $9M x 3 on Matz instead of $18.4M on ERod, what will matter most is not just how well Matz will do vs ERod, but what we spend the other $9M on- the amount saved by ERod not taking the QO.

 

Are we a better team, if we sign

$14M x 4 R Iglesias

$9M x 3 Matz

$9M x 3 Graveman

$5M x 2 Y Gomes (-$2M nontender Plawecki)

$3.5M x 2 Iggy

 

i will wager one of any body part that I have two (or more) of that the Sox do not sign 5 free agents to Major League deals....

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we have a $40M winter spending budget like last winter's "blueprint," and we spend $9M x 3 on Matz instead of $18.4M on ERod, what will matter most is not just how well Matz will do vs ERod, but what we spend the other $9M on- the amount saved by ERod not taking the QO.

 

Are we a better team, if we sign

$14M x 4 R Iglesias

$9M x 3 Matz

$9M x 3 Graveman

$5M x 2 Y Gomes (-$2M nontender Plawecki)

$3.5M x 2 Iggy

 

The Sox would be better with just Matz and Graveman for $18M combined instead of one ERod for 18.

[moonslav59]

i will wager one of any body part that I have two (or more) of that the Sox do not sign 5 free agents to Major League deals....

 

I've been saying 3-4, but I was answering Old Red who swears no big deals, so I geared it to that perspective. (He probably thinks the R Iglesias deal is "big.")

 

My point was about his "blueprint" comment. The blueprint was spending $40M, last winter.

 

If we spend the same on just 3 players, someone has to be big. Even 3 at $13.3M/yr is probably bigger than Old Red envisions.

[moonslav59]

The Sox would be better with just Matz and Graveman for $18M combined instead of one ERod for 18.

 

That's kind of the point I was getting at.

 

Signing Matz instead of ERod in a vacuum looks bad, but it's all about the total money spent.

[notin]

If we have a $40M winter spending budget like last winter's "blueprint," and we spend $9M x 3 on Matz instead of $18.4M on ERod, what will matter most is not just how well Matz will do vs ERod, but what we spend the other $9M on- the amount saved by ERod not taking the QO.

 

Are we a better team, if we sign

$14M x 4 R Iglesias

$9M x 3 Matz

$9M x 3 Graveman

$5M x 2 Y Gomes (-$2M nontender Plawecki)

$3.5M x 2 Iggy

 

I am imagining a much simpler plan for free agency - three free agents.

 

The Sox are likely to sign one starting pitcher. I would add Matz to the list not because I think he is a good fit, but because the rumors are already out there. I would also add Martin Perez, again, not because I think he fits, but Bloom has already signed him twice. Other candidates are probably pitchers like Jon Gray (who is now 5th in fWAR among free agent starters since 2018, behind Verlander, Kershaw, Gausman and Stroman), Jakob Junis (long shot who has been limited to about 65 IP in the last 2 seasons due to injuries, and therefore might be willing to sign a short term low money deal), and Matt Boyd (not a free agent, but is a non-tender candidate in Detroit).

 

I expect a RP to be signed. But not a conventional closer, because Bloom ahs a history of building bullpens using interchangeable parts for that role. With one (or hopefully both) or Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen, someone like Archie Bradley might be a solid fit. Mychal Givens is among the leaders for free agent RP since 2018, along with Ryan Tepera. Another name I keep on the list is Hansel Robles, since he has expressed interest (although I should note that it's not exactly uncommon for players to expres interest in staying with their current team during the timeframe when that's the only team they can legally negotiate with). Graveman is another name, but he might be pricing himself out of the Sox range with his uncharacteristically stellar season. He also has a long injury history, although a lot of that damage was when he was trying to be a starter.

 

I expect a 2B. Cesar Hernandez is the headliner here, IMO. Semien is a name linked to Boston going back to last year, and his QO might be less of an issue given that Bogaerts has already voiced his desire to exercise his opt-out. I like Eduardo Escobar as a hitter, but not as a fielder, although repeated shifting strategies have lessened the need for defense at 2B. Jonathan Villar has some potential, but at the end of the day, he also strikes me as a best-case scenario for the future of Jarren Duran.

 

I think another pitcher is acquired via trade, probably involving Duran, who has no place to play, is MLB-ready, not getting younger, and makes the league minimum, which maximizes his appeal around the league...

[notin]

I've been saying 3-4, but I was answering Old Red who swears no big deals, so I geared it to that perspective. (He probably thinks the R Iglesias deal is "big.")

 

My point was about his "blueprint" comment. The blueprint was spending $40M, last winter.

 

If we spend the same on just 3 players, someone has to be big. Even 3 at $13.3M/yr is probably bigger than Old Red envisions.

 

For a closer? It is. It's not quite Liam Hendricks level, but that is a lot of money for a 60 inning pitcher. Also bear in mind signing Raisel Iglesias would cost the Sox a draft pick. I don't see Bloom giving up a draft pick for a closer...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For a closer? It is. It's not quite Liam Hendricks level, but that is a lot of money for a 60 inning pitcher. Also bear in mind signing Raisel Iglesias would cost the Sox a draft pick. I don't see Bloom giving up a draft pick for a closer...

 

I don't see Bloom giving up a draft pick for a lifetime space in the new parking garage soon to be built on Jerry Remy Way.

[moonslav59]

I am imagining a much simpler plan for free agency - three free agents.

 

The Sox are likely to sign one starting pitcher. I would add Matz to the list not because I think he is a good fit, but because the rumors are already out there. I would also add Martin Perez, again, not because I think he fits, but Bloom has already signed him twice. Other candidates are probably pitchers like Jon Gray (who is now 5th in fWAR among free agent starters since 2018, behind Verlander, Kershaw, Gausman and Stroman), Jakob Junis (long shot who has been limited to about 65 IP in the last 2 seasons due to injuries, and therefore might be willing to sign a short term low money deal), and Matt Boyd (not a free agent, but is a non-tender candidate in Detroit).

 

I expect a RP to be signed. But not a conventional closer, because Bloom ahs a history of building bullpens using interchangeable parts for that role. With one (or hopefully both) or Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen, someone like Archie Bradley might be a solid fit. Mychal Givens is among the leaders for free agent RP since 2018, along with Ryan Tepera. Another name I keep on the list is Hansel Robles, since he has expressed interest (although I should note that it's not exactly uncommon for players to expres interest in staying with their current team during the timeframe when that's the only team they can legally negotiate with). Graveman is another name, but he might be pricing himself out of the Sox range with his uncharacteristically stellar season. He also has a long injury history, although a lot of that damage was when he was trying to be a starter.

 

I expect a 2B. Cesar Hernandez is the headliner here, IMO. Semien is a name linked to Boston going back to last year, and his QO might be less of an issue given that Bogaerts has already voiced his desire to exercise his opt-out. I like Eduardo Escobar as a hitter, but not as a fielder, although repeated shifting strategies have lessened the need for defense at 2B. Jonathan Villar has some potential, but at the end of the day, he also strikes me as a best-case scenario for the future of Jarren Duran.

 

I think another pitcher is acquired via trade, probably involving Duran, who has no place to play, is MLB-ready, not getting younger, and makes the league minimum, which maximizes his appeal around the league...

 

We may sign just 1-2 FAs and trade for 1-2 key players.

 

I've always like Jon Gray. If we sign Matz and Gray, we'd keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen and not need to add much there. Sign Iggy for 2B/SS and maybe trade for Trivino.

 

I could also see us trade for Montas and Trivino and sign Matz and Iggy.

 

4 key additions.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Bloom giving up a draft pick for a lifetime space in the new parking garage soon to be built on Jerry Remy Way.

 

Good point.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We may sign just 1-2 FAs and trade for 1-2 key players.

 

I've always like Jon Gray. If we sign Matz and Gray, we'd keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen and not need to add much there. Sign Iggy for 2B/SS and maybe trade for Trivino.

 

I could also see us trade for Montas and Trivino and sign Matz and Iggy.

 

4 key additions.

 

Gray, Montas and Matz -- get it done. They'll make a solid rotation, along with Pivetta and a youngster (unfortunately, the most likely candidates for '22 IL stints are a still-recovering Sale and due-for-an-age-related setback Eovaldi).

 

Although, realistically -- and especially, financially -- acquiring young bullpen arms is more probable...

Here's a decent read off WEEI.com today: https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/dont-forget-chaim-blooms-top-priority-this-offseason

[mvp 78]

For a closer? It is. It's not quite Liam Hendricks level, but that is a lot of money for a 60 inning pitcher. Also bear in mind signing Raisel Iglesias would cost the Sox a draft pick. I don't see Bloom giving up a draft pick for a closer...

 

At least not for Iglesias.

[moonslav59]

Gray, Montas and Matz -- get it done. They'll make a solid rotation, along with Pivetta and a youngster (unfortunately, the most likely candidates for '22 IL stints are a still-recovering Sale and due-for-an-age-related setback Eovaldi).

 

Although, realistically -- and especially, financially -- acquiring young bullpen arms is more probable...

Here's a decent read off WEEI.com today: https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/dont-forget-chaim-blooms-top-priority-this-offseason

 

I meant Montas or Gray.

[Old Red]

I've been saying 3-4, but I was answering Old Red who swears no big deals, so I geared it to that perspective. (He probably thinks the R Iglesias deal is "big.")

 

My point was about his "blueprint" comment. The blueprint was spending $40M, last winter.

 

If we spend the same on just 3 players, someone has to be big. Even 3 at $13.3M/yr is probably bigger than Old Red envisions.

 

I don’t think the E Rod deal was a big deal. I was talking about signing one of the high priced SS that are out there, or a big extension for Bogey, or Raffy type deals.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the E Rod deal was a big deal. I was talking about signing one of the high priced SS that are out there, or a big extension for Bogey, or Raffy type deals.

 

Okay.

 

I figured you'd think $77-80M/5 was big.

 

Would Baez at $100M/5 be big?

[Old Red]

Okay.

 

I figured you'd think $77-80M/5 was big.

 

Would Baez at $100M/5 be big?

 

No $ 100M/5 would not be big to me. A Sale type, or bigger to me would be big.

[mvp 78]

If that's the definition, the only "big" deal they may sign this offseason would be an extension for Raffy or Xander.

[Old Red]

If that's the definition, the only "big" deal they may sign this offseason would be an extension for Raffy or Xander.

 

That’s what I’ve been saying.

[moonslav59]

That’s what I’ve been saying.

 

Okay, but signing Baez to $100M/5 is not a blueprint of last winter, either. (Not that we will.)

[Old Red]

Okay, but signing Baez to $100M/5 is not a blueprint of last winter, either. (Not that we will.)

 

I’m just responding to you that I didn’t think $100M/5 would be a big deal not if the Sox would do it, or not.

[moonslav59]

I'm not for signing Schwarber...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/mlb-rumors-latest-kyle-schwarbers-market-free-agency?cid=sm_npd_rsn_bos_fb_mn&fbclid=IwAR0WjeEJGBtcaw4leWuN-TKlRu4eATPkgqBd13o0oprMirH96sBqv30KJ9s

[Old Red]

I'm not for signing Schwarber...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/mlb-rumors-latest-kyle-schwarbers-market-free-agency?cid=sm_npd_rsn_bos_fb_mn&fbclid=IwAR0WjeEJGBtcaw4leWuN-TKlRu4eATPkgqBd13o0oprMirH96sBqv30KJ9s

 

Remember. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

[oldtimer]

I'm not for signing Schwarber...

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/mlb-rumors-latest-kyle-schwarbers-market-free-agency?cid=sm_npd_rsn_bos_fb_mn&fbclid=IwAR0WjeEJGBtcaw4leWuN-TKlRu4eATPkgqBd13o0oprMirH96sBqv30KJ9s

 

I was for Schwaber only if JDM chose to opt out. After this year we can pick up one of the many DH options that might become available. Lets put money into one or two starting pitchers and one or two RP's. The decision on the mix should be based on our plans for Whitlock, Houck and Seabold.

 

I'm guessing Casas can supplement 11st base. We could use Arroyo at 2nd or pick up a strong presence at 2nd and move Arroyo to infield utility. I rather Semien than Biaz. We don't need another strikeout king to go with Renfroe and Dalbec. I'm still interested in an outfield replacement for Renfroe if he is going to be valued at $7.5 mil. Duran would be an adequate utility backup and we could also use Locastro.

[notin]

If that's the definition, the only "big" deal they may sign this offseason would be an extension for Raffy or Xander.

 

Well, Rotoworld is reporting they are talking to Javier Baez.

 

I’m surprised, too…

[notin]

Remember. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

 

 

Even with the rather mediocre selections in free agency?

[moonslav59]

Remember. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

 

That's my motto, but I think we will need to trade for one or two pitchers.

[Old Red]

Even with the rather mediocre selections in free agency?

 

I’m just saying what we need the most. How we get it is another story.

[Old Red]

That's my motto, but I think we will need to trade for one or two pitchers.

 

Who are we trading?

[Old Red]

Well, Rotoworld is reporting they are talking to Javier Baez.

 

I’m surprised, too…

 

They can talk all they want to, but unless Bogey gets traded I don’t see it happening.

[notin]

They can talk all they want to, but unless Bogey gets traded I don’t see it happening.

 

It would basically be a pre-emptive move if/when he opts out after this season. But for 2022, Baez would play 2b (like he did for the Mets) and X would play shortstop…