A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

Also "baseball is based on confidence." These hitters expect to fail 7 out of 10 times when up to bat. If they fail during short term exposure to MLB pitching, shouldn't that just roll off them?

[Nick]

Let's not forget we're talking about Red Sox 2021 with what's transpired.

 

I'll quit being a dick.

 

Of course I would love for Duran to be in minors working on his game.

 

But we were in the middle of division race. Santana and Marwin were just plain awful. We also needed Kike at 2B.

 

I was asking for the team to turn over every rock to find help. I saw Duran maybe as that piece.

 

I still feel we need help with our pitching staff NOW.

 

Why not bring up Seabold instead of using the two losers we acquired at trade deadline?

 

I would love for Seabold to continue to work on his craft but that's a luxury we may not have.

 

Context is very important.

 

Bloom owes 26 players at least a fighting chance even if it's just a placebo/mirage.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

1. You don't call up those guys because they still have room to grow before they get here. Both of them are still teenagers. Yorke is a poor defender (he'd fit right in on the 2021 squad). Mayer hasn't ever played a season this long before. Plus, nobody is calling for A players to be called up. Once you get to AA, the chance is much more likely.

 

2. You aren't going to waste a call up on guys like Yorke and Mayer for contractual reasons (i.e. Super Two status). You won't mess around with their service time.

 

3. If the Sox really thought Yorke could play everyday at the MLB level going forward, they'd call him up. If he failed after being called up, I don't think it would affect his career going forward because he's just 19 and still has a lot more to learn.

 

In a vacuum, call them up. It wouldn't hurt their status going forward. Was Pedroia called up too early? Did that affect him long term? Was he mentally broken after 2006?

 

you think Groome is ML ready?

[mvp 78]

Let's not forget we're talking about Red Sox 2021 with what's transpired.

 

I'll quit being a dick.

 

Of course I would love for Duran to be in minors working on his game.

 

But we were in the middle of division race. Santana and Marwin were just plain awful. We also needed Kike at 2B.

 

I was asking for the team to turn over every rock to find help. I saw Duran maybe as that piece.

 

I still feel we need help with our pitching staff NOW.

 

Why not bring up Seabold instead of using the two losers we acquired at trade deadline?

 

I would love for Seabold to continue to work on his craft but that's a luxury we may not have.

 

Context is very important.

 

Bloom owes 26 players at least a fighting chance even if it's just a placebo/mirage.

 

The division race is OVER.

[mvp 78]

you think Groome is ML ready?

 

Hell no. He can barely get A+ guys out.

[Nick]

The division race is OVER.

 

Obviously. I've moved on to the wild card race. We could use Seabold. If he sucks, so what?

[notin]

Let's not forget we're talking about Red Sox 2021 with what's transpired.

 

I'll quit being a dick.

 

Of course I would love for Duran to be in minors working on his game.

 

But we were in the middle of division race. Santana and Marwin were just plain awful. We also needed Kike at 2B.

 

I was asking for the team to turn over every rock to find help. I saw Duran maybe as that piece.

 

I still feel we need help with our pitching staff NOW.

 

Why not bring up Seabold instead of using the two losers we acquired at trade deadline?

 

I would love for Seabold to continue to work on his craft but that's a luxury we may not have.

 

Context is very important.

 

Bloom owes 26 players at least a fighting chance even if it's just a placebo/mirage.

 

Well, we needed Arroyo at 2b. We settled for Kike there…

[moonslav59]

Hell no. He can barely get A+ guys out.

 

I thought he was what this was all about.

 

Do you think it would hurt him to call him up?

 

(Not the team- you obviously think that.)

[mvp 78]

Obviously. I've moved on to the wild card race. We could use Seabold. If he sucks, so what?

 

Yes, they could probably use him. Seems like his "stuff" is back to 100%.

[mvp 78]

I thought he was what this was all about.

 

Do you think it would hurt him to call him up?

 

(Not the team- you obviously think that.)

 

Let's pretend that we had the old rules and could have 40 players on an active roster in September and that MiLB was over. No, having Groome on this roster for a few weeks wouldn't hurt him. He might not pitch all that much, but it could be good to have him around some of the MLB guys (he did spend considerable time working out with Sale in the past). I wouldn't expect him to pitch very well in a game though.

 

In that respect, were MLB GM's resistant to call up guys for the 40 man active roster back a few years ago? If those guys failed, was it rushing them? Did that hurt their confidence? If it would hurt their confidence, a GM would never call up any decent prospect in the old 40 man days.

[mvp 78]

If the Sox called Groome up, it wouldn't ruin him. He just wouldn't be very good on the field. I don't think it'd have any negative impact on his play in 2022.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Obviously. I've moved on to the wild card race. We could use Seabold. If he sucks, so what?

 

Now, why would we want to call up a guy who's having success in the minors when we instead, we could sign Brad Peacock? Ok, he was 0-4 with a 7.68 ERA in Triple A, but at least he was bad enough to face 12 big league batters this week. And dang-yo -- he may have a 19.29 ERA in the MLB, but at least he got out 7 of the 12 he faced!

[moonslav59]

Yes, they could probably use him. Seems like his "stuff" is back to 100%.

 

I always thought Seabold was going to be part of the ML team in 2021. The injury set him back, but if he's recovered and is deemed "ready," he seems like as good a pick as anyone else, if not better.

[notin]

If the Sox called Groome up, it wouldn't ruin him. He just wouldn't be very good on the field. I don't think it'd have any negative impact on his play in 2022.

 

Would it ruin Groome? Probably not.

 

Would it help the Sox? Again, probably not.

 

Would it make his agent’s nipples perk up with delight? Yeah, safe bet…

[oldtimer]

There continue to be a lot of negative comments about Duran's defense. His actual numbers including zero errors and 46 out of 47 opportunities converted, look pretty good but his DSR doesn't. It turns out it is a complicated calculation made from BIS's (scouts) collected data. Here is one comment which caught my eye in the Fangraph's description.

 

 

"The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry. In general, DRS isn’t perfect because it doesn’t factor in shifts, positioning, and can’t perfectly measure everything it needs to, but it’s still among the best options out there."

 

I don't think the criticism is all that valid at this point. People tend to ignore things like the game winning rbi two games back because it doesn't fit their narrative. I believe he would be a good 4th outfielder for us in 2022.

[notin]

There continue to be a lot of negative comments about Duran's defense. His actual numbers including zero errors and 46 out of 47 opportunities converted, look pretty good but his DSR doesn't. It turns out it is a complicated calculation made from BIS's (scouts) collected data. Here is one comment which caught my eye in the Fangraph's description.

 

 

"The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry. In general, DRS isn’t perfect because it doesn’t factor in shifts, positioning, and can’t perfectly measure everything it needs to, but it’s still among the best options out there."

 

I don't think the criticism is all that valid at this point. People tend to ignore things like the game winning rbi two games back because it doesn't fit their narrative. I believe he would be a good 4th outfielder for us in 2022.

 

A two out RBI doesn’t mean his defense is any better. And it doesn’t replace his .578 OPS.

 

My “narrative” on him has always been “BABIP product in A ball and park product in AAA.” His defensive metrics are lackluster, but as you pointed out, one month of data isn’t real useful. I can’t tell by watching TV if he gets good jumps; the camera only pans to him when he’s already in motion.

 

But every scout whose followed him over the last two years seems to arrive at the same consensus - his defense is a work in progress. (Now I can tell by watching TV that throwing will NEVER be a strong point. He’s a lot closer being a Damon than a Jackie Bradley when it comes to throwing.

 

But the goal for him isn’t and should never be “fourth outfielder.” If that’s all he is, send him back down to AAA and let him play every day. He’ll never get any better defensively if he’s on the bench…

[Bellhorn04]

No, but do you believe no harm can be done?

 

No harm will likely be done?

 

Totally not sure?

 

We're talking about psychological stuff, so it's all anecdotal evidence.

[Bellhorn04]

Also "baseball is based on confidence." These hitters expect to fail 7 out of 10 times when up to bat. If they fail during short term exposure to MLB pitching, shouldn't that just roll off them?

 

C'mon man, us savvy metric-wise fans all know that the elite hitters only fail 6 out of 10 times, if they have a .400 OBP or close to it.

[Bellhorn04]

There continue to be a lot of negative comments about Duran's defense. His actual numbers including zero errors and 46 out of 47 opportunities converted, look pretty good but his DSR doesn't. It turns out it is a complicated calculation made from BIS's (scouts) collected data. Here is one comment which caught my eye in the Fangraph's description.

 

 

"The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry. In general, DRS isn’t perfect because it doesn’t factor in shifts, positioning, and can’t perfectly measure everything it needs to, but it’s still among the best options out there."

 

I don't think the criticism is all that valid at this point. People tend to ignore things like the game winning rbi two games back because it doesn't fit their narrative. I believe he would be a good 4th outfielder for us in 2022.

 

Something tells me he's not as bad as he's being made out to be by some. Or at least he's capable of improvement. He's sure got the speed for CF.

[Nick]

There continue to be a lot of negative comments about Duran's defense. His actual numbers including zero errors and 46 out of 47 opportunities converted, look pretty good but his DSR doesn't. It turns out it is a complicated calculation made from BIS's (scouts) collected data. Here is one comment which caught my eye in the Fangraph's description.

 

 

"The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry. In general, DRS isn’t perfect because it doesn’t factor in shifts, positioning, and can’t perfectly measure everything it needs to, but it’s still among the best options out there."

 

I don't think the criticism is all that valid at this point. People tend to ignore things like the game winning rbi two games back because it doesn't fit their narrative. I believe he would be a good 4th outfielder for us in 2022.

 

I'd want to know how many outs did Duran not get compared to 'average' CF. Otherwise what anyone says in meaningless.

 

Who is an average defensive center fielder by the way?

[Elktonnick]

I'd want to know how many outs did Duran not get compared to 'average' CF. Otherwise what anyone says in meaningless.

 

Who is an average defensive center fielder by the way?

I think the real question is whether Duran is worth more to some other club than he is to Boston. The only way to answer that question is to see what other teams offer for him this off season. I think it is fairly certain that his name will come in trade talks over the winter. If Bloom gets the right offer then he is gone, if not then he stays and gets to compete for the cf job next spring.

[moonslav59]

I'd want to know how many outs did Duran not get compared to 'average' CF. Otherwise what anyone says in meaningless.

 

Who is an average defensive center fielder by the way?

 

UZR/150 uses trained and calibrated "experts" who judge what balls are in the zone and should be caught. I'm not sure, if they use launch angles and distance needed to get to the ball.

 

According to fangraphs, Duran made 34 of 35 plays on BIZ (Balls in Zone). They also factor in plays made out of the zone by great defenders. I'm looking at fangraphs, now. Duran has made 12 OOZ (Out of Zone) plays in 215 innings, but I don't know how many OOZ plays he had a chance to make.

 

I can see that his OOZ plays to Innings is very low compared to many others, but it's not the worst. They have Duran dead last out of 60 CF'ers with 200+ innings in CF at -25.6 UZR/150, They gave him a -0.6 ARM, which is very bad for the amount of innings. -2.3 Range and +0.1 Errors.

 

Michael Taylor made 100 OOZ plays in 1021 innings. Buxton 20 in 274 innings. (He made 69-71 BIZ plays)

 

Link:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=3&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

DRS uses a different method and has him at -6 runs. Maybe a lot is due to his arm not just range limitations.

Edited September 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

UZR/150 uses trained and calibrated "experts" who judge what balls are in the zone and should be caught. I'm not sure, if they use launch angles and distance needed to get to the ball.

 

According to fangraphs, Duran made 34 of 35 plays on BIZ (Balls in Zone). They also factor in plays made out of the zone by great defenders. I'm looking at fangraphs, now. Duran has made 12 OOZ (Out of Zone) plays in 215 innings, but I don't know how many OOZ plays he had a chance to make.

 

I can see that his OOZ plays to Innings is very low compared to many others, but it's not the worst. They have Duran dead last out of 60 CF'ers with 200+ innings in CF at -25.6 UZR/150, They gave him a -0.6 ARM, which is very bad for the amount of innings. -2.3 Range and +0.1 Errors.

 

Michael Taylor made 100 OOZ plays in 1021 innings. Buxton 20 in 274 innings. (He made 69-71 BIZ plays)

 

Link:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=3&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

DRS uses a different method and has him at -6 runs. Maybe a lot is due to his arm not just range limitations.

 

I have heard that his arm is not Bradley or Renfroe like and that is a negative for a CF. Beni's arm was also a notch lower than our best. It ight impact the DRS calculation. They say it is complex and not something that a fan has the data to make, perhaps somewhat subjective. If we trade him away and he blossoms into an above average ML outfielder while we get less in return, won't we feel had.

[moonslav59]

I have heard that his arm is not Bradley or Renfroe like and that is a negative for a CF. Beni's arm was also a notch lower than our best. It ight impact the DRS calculation. They say it is complex and not something that a fan has the data to make, perhaps somewhat subjective. If we trade him away and he blossoms into an above average ML outfielder while we get less in return, won't we feel had.

 

Yes, and I'm not for trading him, unless we get something very good back.

 

I still have faith he'll be good.

 

This sample size is tiny.

 

Did I give up on Dalbec?

 

(Actually, I did for a couple days, at one time, but that's beside the point.)

[mvp 78]

I prefer to listen to the trained scouts that say “he takes bad routes to balls.”

 

Can he get better? Sure. Will he? Who knows?

[notin]

I have heard that his arm is not Bradley or Renfroe like and that is a negative for a CF. Beni's arm was also a notch lower than our best. It ight impact the DRS calculation. They say it is complex and not something that a fan has the data to make, perhaps somewhat subjective. If we trade him away and he blossoms into an above average ML outfielder while we get less in return, won't we feel had.

 

I won’t feel had. Whether he gets traded or not or blossoms or not is completely out of my hands.

 

Of course, yes if Duran exceeds and whoever we get back flops. it would reflect poorly on Bloom. But that goes for trading any player. But what if Duran succeeds but so does the player he was traded for?

[moonslav59]

SF won an a walk off error by newly acquired Trea Turner to take back the lead in the NLW and NL overall.

 

The Sox are now 8 behind TBR, so winning the division is all buy hopeless, unless we sweep them, later in the week. NYY won in extras vs the O's, last night to hold their 1.5 game lead over us. OAK's pen allowed 9 runs in their last IP to lose 11-10 and fall 3 behind us.

 

Here's how the AL looks:

 

85-50 TBR

79-55 HOU

78-56 NYY

78-57 CWS

78-59 BOS -1.5 WC1

 

74-61 OAK -3.0 WC2

73-62 SEA -4.0 WC2

71-62 TOR -5.0 WC2

 

(Remember, CLE still has a winning record at 67-65. -8.5 WC2.)

[moonslav59]

Something tells me he's not as bad as he's being made out to be by some. Or at least he's capable of improvement. He's sure got the speed for CF.

 

I don't think the numbers or eye test lie, but to me, the sample size is way too small to make a judgment.

 

We do know there seemed to be a reluctance to calling him up, when we had a real OF need, so I don't think it's a stretch to think maybe his defense was a real and major concern.

 

I am far from giving up on Duran, and I fully agree he's "capable of improvement." Speed helps a lot.

[jad]

I prefer to listen to the trained scouts that say “he takes bad routes to balls.”

 

Can he get better? Sure. Will he? Who knows?

 

Since there is some question on what a proper route to the ball is, I wouldn't place much stock in a scout's unsupported claim that his are 'bad'.

[Bellhorn04]

Since there is some question on what a proper route to the ball is

 

Is there? I would think in most cases that's a simple matter of physics.