A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

The SOX offense is better when Kike is at 2nd base, but the defense is worse in the OF. That's the tradeoff.

 

Well, if we get to the real playoffs, Cora would have to figure a way to have Kike out there at the end of the game for sure.

[mvp 78]

Always with the dollar signs, but I agree, especially on Richards. It is remotely possible that the disaster of no longer being able to rely on his doctored-up knuckle curve has actually made him a better pitcher. He has been freaking unreal in the bullpen and last night to me was the piece de resistance.

 

If he does keep this up for the rest of the season, Bloom and Cora are going to have a heckuva discussion. $10M is a lot, plus I don't like the long hair.

 

There is NO WAY that option gets picked up and I want him closing from here on out.

[mvp 78]

Long hair is what sets us apart from the Yankees.

 

Speaking of which, if you click on Joey Gallo's B-R page, it shows him with beard and mustache in a Yankees cap. It's comical.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Nope.

 

One more time. When Kike returns, Cora is very likely to keep Dalbec at 1b with his hot bat (rookie of the month in August).

 

That leaves five good bats for the outfield and DH: Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe, Schwarber, and JDM.

 

My assumption is that Schwarber and JDM will play every game at DH/LF and that the other three will play based on Cora's day to day assessment.

 

Worse case, Cora has a very good pinch-hitter or late inning defensive replacement.

 

If Dalbec's bat goes cold, Schwarber can always play 1b.

 

If covid hits again, Cora has options.

 

I see no problems when and if Kike returns.

[Maxbialystock]

The SOX offense is better when Kike is at 2nd base, but the defense is worse in the OF. That's the tradeoff.

 

I like this point. I hate Kike not being in CF, but, if Arroyo isn't back or if he can't hit, I personally would move Kike back to 2B because those other choices are just awful at bat.

[moonslav59]

Always with the dollar signs, but I agree, especially on Richards. It is remotely possible that the disaster of no longer being able to rely on his doctored-up knuckle curve has actually made him a better pitcher. He has been freaking unreal in the bullpen and last night to me was the piece de resistance.

 

If he does keep this up for the rest of the season, Bloom and Cora are going to have a heckuva discussion. $10M is a lot, plus I don't like the long hair.

 

In reality, the choice is just $8.5M, since his buy out is $1.5M on the team option of $10M. I'm not sure what the 2022 lux tax number is, since they counted the $1.5M on his 2021 lux tax cost.

 

I know, more dollar signs.

[Maxbialystock]

2-3 innings every third day with no others used, unless needed.

 

Actually, I still trust Ottavino more than Valdez.

 

Fortunately, they do two different things. One is a closer and the other a long reliever. We would be nuts to trust Valdez, even though he's done yeoman work for the Sox this year, over Ottavino.

[Maxbialystock]

In reality, the choice is just $8.5M, since his buy out is $1.5M on the team option of $10M. I'm not sure what the 2022 lux tax number is, since they counted the $1.5M on his 2021 lux tax cost.

 

I know, more dollar signs.

 

I kind of like $8.5M, provided he keeps being great through September.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox outfield is far from perfect, but I'm fine with Verdugo (2.7 WAR) in LF, Kike (4.4 WAR) in CF, and Renfroe (1.4 WAR) in RF. Verdugo's OPS is .784, Rike's is .811, and Renfroe's is .813.

 

The argument that Bloom needed to acquire a great defensive CF for the late innings is absurd.

 

The roster of a contender without one of the many high quality defensive outfielders who were available last winter does seems absurd. Nobody here is arguing about replacing Kike -- our WAR leader -- but how about for one of the two DHs we're suddenly forced to use in the outfield to protect a lead in late innings? At least we now know Schwarber can be shifted to first base, though we should assume a left-right platoon there, even with Dalbec currently on fire.

[moonslav59]

The roster of a contender without one of the many high quality defensive outfielders who were available last winter does seems absurd. Nobody here is arguing about replacing Kike -- our WAR leader -- but how about for one of the two DHs we're suddenly forced to use in the outfield to protect a lead in late innings? At least we now know Schwarber can be shifted to first base, though we should assume a left-right platoon there, even with Dalbec currently on fire.

 

This also begs the question: why Duran as the 4th OF'er in 2022?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This also begs the question: why Duran as the 4th OF'er in 2022?

 

That is only a possibility hatched here. I doubt the Red Sox plan to keep him on a bench anywhere. It may be too late for him to be Grady Sizemore, who had four great MLB years by age 25 (and then dropped off the flat part of Earth until he was out of baseball at age 32)... but to improve, Duran needs to be playing every day, somewhere.

[Hugh2]

Groome to Portland, Hey Orlando, how bout Groome to Boston

 

I mean, if you want to ruin the kid and the team why not.

[moonslav59]

That is only a possibility hatched here. I doubt the Red Sox plan to keep him on a bench anywhere. It may be too late for him to be Grady Sizemore, who had four great MLB years by age 25 (and then dropped off the flat part of Earth until he was out of baseball at age 32)... but to improve, Duran needs to be playing every day, somewhere.

 

If that's the case, then a trade is the only way he plays everyday, unless is at WOO.

[mvp 78]

The roster of a contender without one of the many high quality defensive outfielders who were available last winter does seems absurd. Nobody here is arguing about replacing Kike -- our WAR leader -- but how about for one of the two DHs we're suddenly forced to use in the outfield to protect a lead in late innings? At least we now know Schwarber can be shifted to first base, though we should assume a left-right platoon there, even with Dalbec currently on fire.

 

How about $1.5M to Marisinick instead of $3M to Marwin?

[moonslav59]

I mean, if you want to ruin the kid and the team why not.

 

Many seem to feel like it can't hurt to call anyone up too early, let alone way too early.

[mvp 78]

Many seem to feel like it can't hurt to call anyone up too early, let alone way too early.

 

There is no empirical evidence that calling up a player and having them struggle hurts their long term success.

[Nick]

There is no empirical evidence that calling up a player and having them struggle hurts their long term success.

 

I 100% agree.

 

These are men. You think they'll refuse the promotion saying they're not ready?

 

What it does do is to expose their weaknesses. Then they can work it out. Dalbec is just doing that.

 

So what good will it do for Duran to go back to AAA? AAA pitchers can't throw the pitches that major league pitchers are throwing and getting him out.

 

He's a major leaguer.

 

Quit treating them like they're 12 years old. MOON.

 

If I'm the owner, I rather hear the bad news NOW.

[moonslav59]

There is no empirical evidence that calling up a player and having them struggle hurts their long term success.

 

No, but do you believe no harm can be done?

 

No harm will likely be done?

 

Totally not sure?

[mvp 78]

I 100% agree.

 

These are men. You think they'll refuse the promotion saying they're not ready?

 

What it does do is to expose their weaknesses. Then they can work it out. Dalbec is just doing that.

 

So what good will it do for Duran to go back to AAA? AAA pitchers can't throw the pitches that major league pitchers are throwing and getting him out.

 

He's a major leaguer.

 

Quit treating them like they're 12 years old. MOON.

 

If I'm the owner, I rather hear the bad news NOW.

 

To me, it's similar to the "choke/clutch" conversation where people say "they wouldn't get to MLB if they couldn't deal with pressure and were chokers." The theory is that talent that chokes would be weeded out by the time they get to MLB anyway. If someone is promoted too early and struggles, it's up to them to make the adjustments in MiLB and scratch their way back. If they don't get back to MLB, it's probably because they never would have made it there in the first place.

 

They ruined Cla Meredith! The very next season, he had a 1.07 ERA for the Padres in 50 innings. He pitched another 230 innings of ok to uninspiring relief after that point.

[mvp 78]

No, but do you believe no harm can be done?

 

No harm will likely be done?

 

Totally not sure?

 

I don't see how any harm would be done. The only potential for a pitcher is if they try to overpitch and hurt their arm in the process.

[moonslav59]

I 100% agree.

 

These are men. You think they'll refuse the promotion saying they're not ready?

 

What it does do is to expose their weaknesses. Then they can work it out. Dalbec is just doing that.

 

So what good will it do for Duran to go back to AAA? AAA pitchers can't throw the pitches that major league pitchers are throwing and getting him out.

 

He's a major leaguer.

 

Quit treating them like they're 12 years old. MOON.

 

If I'm the owner, I rather hear the bad news NOW.

 

I was speaking to the point he needs to play everyday.

 

Is "the man" ready to oust Verdugo, Kike or Renfroe from an OF position even by September of next year?

 

I said I was fine having him as our 4th OF'er, but when the discussion turned to having a defensive 4th OF'er, so maybe Schwarber can be moved to 1B in late innings, I asked about where that leaves Duran?

 

I am not down on Duran.

 

I have been maybe Dalbec's biggest supporters on this site. Duran and Dalbec are "men" in terms of age and maturity. My issue with Duran had nothing to do with an age or fragile emotional level: it had to do with thinking maybe his defense was not ready and that he just made a major change to his batting approach. My position on Duran was to call him up when Bloom & Co. deemed him ready. (I'm not for demoting him, despite his slow- small sample start.)

 

Groome is a whole other case. The guy has barely pitched in the minors. Age is not everything, and his numbers don't even warrant a call-up over others with better numbers- some even older than him- like Seabold or Crawford.

 

I'm not against calling anyone up, but I do think it can do the team and the player harm to call them up too early, especially way too early.

 

Again, if Bloom calls Groome up tomorrow, then I trust he's more ready than Seabold and Crawford. I'm just speculation like everyone else.

[moonslav59]

I don't see how any harm would be done. The only potential for a pitcher is if they try to overpitch and hurt their arm in the process.

 

Much of baseball is based on confidence, especially with pitchers on certain pitches. I do think it's only a very slight risk of over-throwing. I doubt that is a factor.

 

If no harm can be done, hey Bogey's out- call up Mayer. He's got the hot hand.

 

Call up Yorke to take the place of the clowns we've had at 2B the last few days.

 

No risk, right?

[moonslav59]

To me, it's similar to the "choke/clutch" conversation where people say "they wouldn't get to MLB if they couldn't deal with pressure and were chokers." The theory is that talent that chokes would be weeded out by the time they get to MLB anyway. If someone is promoted too early and struggles, it's up to them to make the adjustments in MiLB and scratch their way back. If they don't get back to MLB, it's probably because they never would have made it there in the first place.

 

They ruined Cla Meredith! The very next season, he had a 1.07 ERA for the Padres in 50 innings. He pitched another 230 innings of ok to uninspiring relief after that point.

 

The build confidence in the minors. Maybe the system weeds out those who can't handle pressure in the minors.

[moonslav59]

Sure, no player is going to refuse a call-up, but do you really think every minor leaguer, especially the younger ones, think they are MLB ready right now?

 

(I'm sure even some 17-18 year olds do, but not all prospects feel ML ready, right now. IMO)

[notin]

There is no empirical evidence that calling up a player and having them struggle hurts their long term success.

 

But there is empirical evidence that calling up a player too early leads to quicker arbitration years and free agency. And if the early years are spent developing, a team wastes the minimum wage advantage a first through third year player gives them…

[moonslav59]

But there is empirical evidence that calling up a player too early leads to quicker arbitration years and free agency. And if the early years are spent developing, a team wastes the minimum wage advantage a first through third year player gives them…

 

I doubt that's the only reason players are held back, but it is a major factor for some players, especially the studs.

[mvp 78]

Much of baseball is based on confidence, especially with pitchers on certain pitches. I do think it's only a very slight risk of over-throwing. I doubt that is a factor.

 

If no harm can be done, hey Bogey's out- call up Mayer. He's got the hot hand.

 

Call up Yorke to take the place of the clowns we've had at 2B the last few days.

 

No risk, right?

 

1. You don't call up those guys because they still have room to grow before they get here. Both of them are still teenagers. Yorke is a poor defender (he'd fit right in on the 2021 squad). Mayer hasn't ever played a season this long before. Plus, nobody is calling for A players to be called up. Once you get to AA, the chance is much more likely.

 

2. You aren't going to waste a call up on guys like Yorke and Mayer for contractual reasons (i.e. Super Two status). You won't mess around with their service time.

 

3. If the Sox really thought Yorke could play everyday at the MLB level going forward, they'd call him up. If he failed after being called up, I don't think it would affect his career going forward because he's just 19 and still has a lot more to learn.

 

In a vacuum, call them up. It wouldn't hurt their status going forward. Was Pedroia called up too early? Did that affect him long term? Was he mentally broken after 2006?

[mvp 78]

But there is empirical evidence that calling up a player too early leads to quicker arbitration years and free agency. And if the early years are spent developing, a team wastes the minimum wage advantage a first through third year player gives them…

 

Yes. That's the only evidence we have.

[mvp 78]

But there is empirical evidence that calling up a player too early leads to quicker arbitration years and free agency. And if the early years are spent developing, a team wastes the minimum wage advantage a first through third year player gives them…

 

I believe lower ceiling guys COULD be more likely to be called up early because the arbitration risk is much lower than for top tier prospects. However, lower ceiling guys are less likely to be called up because they aren't as good. It's a tightrope walk with talent and service time that is f***ING STUPID.

[mvp 78]

Sure, no player is going to refuse a call-up, but do you really think every minor leaguer, especially the younger ones, think they are MLB ready right now?

 

(I'm sure even some 17-18 year olds do, but not all prospects feel ML ready, right now. IMO)

 

Who the hell is making that argument? I hate the STRAWMAN nonsense, but... Wow.