A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Elktonnick]

There is no way JD is opting out, because no one is giving him a raise. If fans cringe when he flails at low and outside breaking stuff off the plate every at bat, every single game, then you know pro scouts and front offices are seeing the same thing. And the Red Sox are going to have to pay market value to keep Schwarber out of pinstripes. It will definitely be worth it, because Schwarber's definitely worth it, but when it comes to Bloom making a Godfather offer, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

I agree! I don't think he has increased his marketability with his season thus far.

[harmony]

So, the chasers for the WC2 slot have bunched up more closely.

 

OAK is 4 back, SEA 4.5 back and TOR 5 back from the Sox, but the big news is, we are now juts 0.5 behind the Yanks. True, we are down 2 in the loss column, but with so few days left to this long season, the Yanks having to play 3 more games than us may be hurtful.

 

The Yanks play 19 days in a row, then have 2 days off in the last 10 of the season, including one before the series at Boston 9/24 to 9/26. They get a day off after our series then go to TOR for 3 and end with TBR at home for 3.

 

The bad thing about ending with Tampa is that the Rays might be resting everyone good.

Seattle won Saturday evening at Arizona to pull even with Oakland, four games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card race.

 

Boston's three-game series in Seattle on September 13-15 could be interesting.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

We save $45M off of expiring contracts of Pedey, Beni, E Rod, Richards, Marwin, Ottavino less $5M pay increase for Barnes for a net of $40M.

 

Arbitration increases will come from Devers, Hunter, Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Taylor and Pivetta. Moon probably has an estimated number for the increase.

 

Position players are fixed other than adding Schwarber. I'm not going to worry about JD until he decides to opt out.

 

What's interesting is that JD has to decide before the new CBA come out whether to opt out if I'm not mistaken.

 

Any chance Schwarber would accept the mutual player/club option at $11.5M?

 

You forgot Perez's option that will almost certainly be declined.

 

The JD opt out before the deadline is mute. We'll give him a QO and he'll have until that date to decide to stay or go. However, the QO status does shy some teams away from wanting to sign him, so maybe it's not as "mute" as I think.

[moonslav59]

Beauty of adding Schwarber is he'll hit anywhere in the lineup, he just wants to hit.

 

 

Almost all our best hitters have hit in several different slots. I think the whole comfort in one slot is overblown. All these guys love to hit- they just aren't all as good as Schwarber.

[moonslav59]

Closer, shmoser. I'd pay Richards $8.5M to continue what he is doing now, long relief.

 

As I keep reminding everyone (and getting ignored), the early relievers can ruin or help win a game as much as the closer. And Richards right now is freaking invaluable if he can keep coming in about every 3d day and going 2-3 innings.

 

Valdez should have pitched 3 last night.

 

I'm loving what Richards is doing and quite frankly was and still am shocked. We need some context, here, IMO.

 

Do we ignore his 110 IP and 5.22 ERA before the conversion to the pen, and if we do, how much faith do we put in the 13.1 IP sample size he has, so far, as a RP'er .460 OPS against)?

 

No doubt, as of this very second, I'd like to see Richards back, and the diffeence between his option ($10M) and his buy-out ($1.5M) is $8.5M. That's about what we paid Ottavino, and I think he was barely worth that amount.

 

As of now, keeping Richards looks okay to good, but let's ee how he looks over the rest of September.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no way JD is opting out, because no one is giving him a raise. If fans cringe when he flails at low and outside breaking stuff off the plate every at bat, every single game, then you know pro scouts and front offices are seeing the same thing.

 

I think scouts and front offices are more likely to see a guy who's 8th in the league in total bases in spite of his endless flailing LOL

[mvp 78]

Pivetta on COVID IL.

[mvp 78]

Kutter Crawford starting today.

[moonslav59]

The Sox hold a $10 million dollar option on Richards. I think they exercise it, and like you said keep him in this role which I think replaces Whitlock if they still plan on moving him to the rotation.

 

The buy out is $1.5M, so really, it amounts to $8.5M.

 

What I don't get is this: the $1.5M buyout counted against our 2021 lux tax cost, because it was guaranteed money, so does that mean if we give him the $10M in 2022, it only counts as $8.5M on the 2022 lux tax? It should, otherwise we get billed twice.

Edited September 5, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The buy out is $1.5M, so really, it amounts to $8.5M.

 

What I don't get is this: the $1.5M buyout counted against our 2021 lux tax cost, because it was guaranteed money, so does that mean if we give him the $10M in 2022, it only counts as $8.5M on the 2022 lux tax? It should, otherwise we get billed twice.

 

I'm reasonably sure the tax rules do not get anyone 'billed twice'.

[moonslav59]

I agree! I don't think he has increased his marketability with his season thus far.

 

It's not about him just being worth more or less than the $19M in 2022; it's about longer term security and how he feels about his chances of scoring a bigger or better contract after 2022.

 

Sure, nobody is going to pay him $19M x 4 or even $19M x 3, but he may think $56M/4 looks better than $19M/1 plus whatever he gets after 2022.

 

It's not really a "no brainer" for him, but I doo think he does not opt out. I think he is a very confident man in his abilities and feels he will have a big 2022 season and have a high value on that winter market. On the other hand, if he realizes he has slowed, maybe he goes for the biggest long term deal he can get, this winter, and he opts out and turns down the QO.

[notin]

I agree! I don't think he has increased his marketability with his season thus far.

 

There are two other big factors in his marketability beyond his stat line.

 

1. The number of teams interested in a DH.

 

2. The other options.

 

Now a lot of other players can certainly fill the DH role, assuming they actually want to.

 

The other options right now are a bit of a question mark. Jorge Soler is one, but he might get extended. Schwarber is another, assuming he is ok with a DH role. But the market for DH types is actually a bit thin this year, assuming guys like Rizzo and Belt prefer teams with openings at 1b. Schwarber might be the most sought after name for the role. (And he isn’t a likely Yankee target.)

[oldtimer]

Covid continues to hurt the Sox lineup and depth. I had hoped Duran was the last. but now Pivetta which forces us to try a good but inexperienced guy against the Guardians. We also have the Rays, the White Sox and the Mariners coming up. I'm hoping for a minimum of Arroyo, Kike and D-Hern to return during next week. We'll need all the relief help we can get during that stretch. Barnes, Taylor, Swamamura?

[moonslav59]

I'm reasonably sure the tax rules do not get anyone 'billed twice'.

 

Agreed, and I don't think they go back and subtract $1.5M from 2021, if Richards is given his option, so maybe he will only cost $8.5, next season as we pay him $10M

[moonslav59]

If Schwarber does not want to DH, he may prefer an NL team, assuming it starts looking like they will not have the DH.

[Bellhorn04]

To the best of my knowledge, they don't finalize the lux tax numbers until around the end of the calendar year, after all the contract and option dust settles, so to speak.

[moonslav59]

To the best of my knowledge, they don't finalize the lux tax numbers until around the end of the calendar year, after all the contract and option dust settles, so to speak.

 

Yes, I know they count performance bonuses against the lux tax, so why not take out option money, if a player is given the option?

[Nick]

Yes, I know they count performance bonuses against the lux tax, so why not take out option money, if a player is given the option?

 

Wait you just confused me. Performance bonuses are assigned to the "Championship Season" when earned, never prorated. I don't understand what you're saying in second part.

[Maxbialystock]

Almost all our best hitters have hit in several different slots. I think the whole comfort in one slot is overblown. All these guys love to hit- they just aren't all as good as Schwarber.

 

Mostly agree, but not leadoff, which was impossible to fill until Kike moved in there. Schwarber, I agree, can bat anywhere.

[moonslav59]

Wait you just confused me. Performance bonuses are assigned to the "Championship Season" when earned, never prorated. I don't understand what you're saying in second part.

 

Players sometimes get bonuses for reaching x amount of PAs or IP. Those bonuses are applied to the lux tax.

[moonslav59]

Mostly agree, but not leadoff, which was impossible to fill until Kike moved in there. Schwarber, I agree, can bat anywhere.

 

I'm not sure Devers would bitch about hitting first.

 

JD likely would.

 

Bogey? Hmmm....

[Nick]

Okay, one thing I was wrong on.....

 

Luxury tax is calculated on December 2 each year for 'Championship Season' which concludes on December 1st (which coincides with CBT calendar date, December 2nd to following year December 1st.)

 

Which means club option on Richards will be settled by that date.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Players sometimes get bonuses for reaching x amount of PAs or IP. Those bonuses are applied to the lux tax.

 

Right, in the year earned and not pro rated over the terms of contract (obviously it would be difficult to re prorate is performance bonuses are on going...ie every year of the contract...say Sale earning top 3 votes for Cy Young award each year of his contract).

[Nick]

Per SoxProspect on Kutter Crawford.....Sale has better outlook on the guy than SoxProspects.....another bionic arm guy....

 

Career Notes: Reportedly taught himself his cutter over winter break during his junior year. Transferred to FGCU after two years at Indian River State College. Brother, Jonathon, was a first-round pick out of the University of Florida in 2013 by Detroit. Was invited to 2017 Fall Instructional League prior to it being cancelled. In 2019, pitched just one game after July 15, that in mid-August, due to a forearm strain, and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in late October 2019, then had another procedure to remove bone spurs from his elbow in June or July 2020. Participated in 2020 Fall Instructional League, although he did not participate in simulated games at that point in his rehab.

 

Summation: Projects as future reliever due to overall lack of pure stuff and high-stress delivery. Potential for two above-average offerings, but lacks a third pitch at present.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per SoxProspect on Kutter Crawford.....Sale has better outlook on the guy than SoxProspects.....another bionic arm guy....

 

Career Notes: Reportedly taught himself his cutter over winter break during his junior year. Transferred to FGCU after two years at Indian River State College. Brother, Jonathon, was a first-round pick out of the University of Florida in 2013 by Detroit. Was invited to 2017 Fall Instructional League prior to it being cancelled. In 2019, pitched just one game after July 15, that in mid-August, due to a forearm strain, and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in late October 2019, then had another procedure to remove bone spurs from his elbow in June or July 2020. Participated in 2020 Fall Instructional League, although he did not participate in simulated games at that point in his rehab.

 

Summation: Projects as future reliever due to overall lack of pure stuff and high-stress delivery. Potential for two above-average offerings, but lacks a third pitch at present.

 

Rut-roh.

[vegasbob]

To continue the prediction of a 20W-20L final 40 games of 2021 , after 19 of those games including the 9th inning Cleveland blowout of Valdez , the record is 10-9 going into the 3 game TBR series. I'll stick with my 20-20 call. It is hitting as much as pitching.

[moonslav59]

To continue the prediction of a 20W-20L final 40 games of 2021 , after 19 of those games including the 9th inning Cleveland blowout of Valdez , the record is 10-9 going into the 3 game TBR series. I'll stick with my 20-20 call. It is hitting as much as pitching.

 

It's like you want it to happen, too.

 

 

[Nick]

Remaining Games

 

Sox (11 Home, 12 Away)

Home

3 vs Rays

3 vs Orioles

3 vs Yankees

2 vs Mets

Away

3 @ Orioles

3 @ White Sox

3 @ Mariners

3 @ Nationals

 

Yankees (13 Home, 12 Away)

Home

4 vs Blue Jays

3 vs Rays

3 vs Guardians

3 vs Twins

Away

3 @ Blue Jays

3 @ Red Sox

3 @ Mets

3 @ Orioles

 

Toronto (12 Home, 15 Away)

Home

3 vs Yankees

3 vs Rays

3 vs Orioles

3 vs Twins

Away

4 @ Yankees

3 @ Rays

4 @ Orioles

4 @ Twins

 

Sox only have 6 games vs AL East contenders.

Yankees play 13 games vs AL East contenders.

Blue Jays play 13 games vs Al East contenders.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Remaining Games

 

Sox (11 Home, 12 Away)

Home

3 vs Rays

3 vs Orioles

3 vs Yankees

2 vs Mets

Away

3 @ Orioles

3 @ White Sox

3 @ Mariners

3 @ Nationals

 

 

Yankees (13 Home, 12 Away)

Home

4 vs Blue Jays

3 vs Rays

3 vs Guardians

3 vs Twins

Away

3 @ Blue Jays

3 @ Red Sox

3 @ Mets

3 @ Orioles

 

Toronto (12 Home, 15 Away)

Home

3 vs Yankees

3 vs Rays

3 vs Orioles

3 vs Twins

Away

4 @ Yankees

3 @ Rays

4 @ Orioles

4 @ Twins

 

TOR looks like the easiest schedule, but they have very few days off.

 

2 days off, but one double header.

 

We have 4 days off and no double headers.

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

TOR looks like the easiest schedule, but they have very few days off.

 

2 days off, but one double header.

 

We have 4 days off and no double headers.

 

 

It's time to quit pussyfooting around. Quit babying Chris Freakin' Sale.

 

Starting pitching for Rays series should line up as Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi, all on 4 days rest. Or do they all need a day off, Cora?