A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

AL Standings

 

68-44 TBR

66-46 CWS

66-46 HOU

 

64-48 OAK (T WC1) -2.0 ALW

65-49 BOS (T WC1) -4.0 ALE

 

61-50 NYY -2.5 WC

60-50 TOR -3.0 WC

59-54 SEA -5.5 WC

 

NL Standings

71-41 SFG

67-45 LAD WC1 (-4.0 NLW)

66-46 MIL

64-49 SDP WC2 (-7.5 NLW)

59-33 PHI (NLE leader)

 

61-51 CIN -2.5 WC (-5.0 NLC)

57-55 ATL -6.5 WC (-2.0 NLE)

56-55 NYM -7.0 WC (-2.5 NLE)

55-56 STL -8.0 WC

 

 

[moonslav59]

Team record in starts by pitcher:

 

14-7 ERod (45-12 in his previous 47 starts)

14-8 Pivetta (2-0 with BOS in 2020)

3-2 Houck (3-0 with BOS in 2020)

12-10 Perez (3-9 w Sox, last year)

11-10 Richards

11-11 Eovaldi (19-14 in previous starts with Sox 2018-2020)

 

Team records:

ERod 59-19 in his last 78 BOS starts

Houck 6-2 in his career

Pivetta 16-8 in his BOS starts

Eovaldi 30-25 in his 55 BOS starts

 

Add Sale to the mix (team records)

10-15 in 2019 (some hard luck)

18-9 in 2018

22-10 in 2017______

50-34 career with BOS

Edited August 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

But 90 points less since 2020, nonetheless, and then there is the whole CERA Pandora's Box to open.

 

I'll lift the lid off the Box, but I'm not going to dig into it.

 

CERA for whole staff:

 

2020

Vaz 5.23

Plaw 6.59

 

2021

Vaz 4.17

Plaw 4.93

[Hugh2]

Good news. The Boston Red Sox will not lose a baseball game today.

[Nick]

Good news. The Boston Red Sox will not lose a baseball game today.

 

I'll add an addendum.

 

We are NOT the only team in MLB that's overworked. Can we just quit being bunch of wussies? It's all part of game.

 

If we have bunch of old positional players that require more frequent rest, well then it's time to get some younger players.

 

If our pen is 'overworked', then bring up fresh arms from the farm. Oh you say we don't have any quality arms in the farm?

 

Then we should have traded for one. Oh but we didn't want to give up prospects to acquire quality pen help, then SHUT THE f*** UP.

 

We are what we are......

 

I'm happy that we're in the playoff chase. It's time for these men to be professionals that they are. Let's not make excuses for them.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought the team actually showed a lot more life in these last 3 games against the Jays. Needless to say it sucks that we lost yesterday. Cora handed the ball to our best relievers and they didn't get it done.

[mvp 78]

I'll lift the lid off the Box, but I'm not going to dig into it.

 

CERA for whole staff:

 

2020

Vaz 5.23

Plaw 6.59

 

2021

Vaz 4.17

Plaw 4.93

 

Yes

[Noles_1335]

Hypothetically speaking.... we're 4 back now and a crucial series with Tampa starting! Let's say we lose that series and fall 6 back. Is it time to start thinking there is no sense in pushing Sale back so quickly. Since this was never to be the season to make a serious run, and that was proven at the deadline. Would it be beneficial to start looking toward another high first round pick for 2022 and get the franchise arm the organization is needing?

[moonslav59]

I'll lift the lid off the Box, but I'm not going to dig into it.

 

CERA for whole staff:

 

2020

Vaz 5.23

Plaw 6.59

 

2021

Vaz 4.17

Plaw 4.93

 

This is the common problem with using CERA like this. Catchers catch different pitchers at higher rates than others, so you have to look at each pitcher individually. Of course, some sample sizes are very small, especially, if one catcher hardly ever catches a certain pitcher, which is often the case.

 

I have done exhaustive studies on this, pitcher by pitcher. Leon blew Vaz away in about 75-80% of the pitchers with large enough sample sizes, both ways, to go by. Before that, all other back up catchers, except Swihart also had better numbers than Vaz. When it happens over and over, it's likely not a fluke.

 

I have not done Plawecki v Vaz in a while, but here it is...

 

Eovaldi:

2021: 2.66 Wong (20 IP), 4.30 Vaz (58 IP),4.72 Plawecki (48 IP)

2020: 0.64 Plawecki (14), Vaz 4.98 (34)

Career: 2.66 Wong (20), 3.79 Plawecki (62), 4.30 Vaz (147), 4.53 Leon (44)

 

ERod:

2021: 5.33 Vaz, nobody else has caught him, this year.

2020: n/a

Career: 3.78 Hanigan (50), 4.05 Leon (118), 4.24 Vaz (560), 4.44 Swi (75)

 

Pivetta: Career: 3.09 Plawecki (32), 4.48 Vaz (96)

 

Richards: 2021: SSS 3.60 Plawecki (15), 5.48 Vaz (95)

 

Perez: Career 4.14 Vaz (146), SSS Plawecki 9.35 (17)

 

Barnes: Career 3.44 Vaz (196), 3.83 Leon (99), SSS 6.94 Plawecki (12)

 

Looks like mixed results and many lop-sided sample sizes, but still tilts towards the back-ups over Vaz.

 

I don't have time to do every RP'er, and their sample sizes are even smaller.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Hypothetically speaking.... we're 4 back now and a crucial series with Tampa starting! Let's say we lose that series and fall 6 back. Is it time to start thinking there is no sense in pushing Sale back so quickly. Since this was never to be the season to make a serious run, and that was proven at the deadline. Would it be beneficial to start looking toward another high first round pick for 2022 and get the franchise arm the organization is needing?

 

We'd have to start tanking in absurd fashion to get another high draft pick.

 

Use Sale as long as we still have a realistic shot at a Wild Card game. The Wild Card is far from ideal, but the 2014 Giants and 2019 Nationals have rings after being Wild Card teams.

[moonslav59]

Yes

 

Nope!

[notin]

Richards pitches 5 innings, gives up 4 runs, only 3 earned runs and we do backflips for his stellar performance.

 

Such is the state of Red Sox.

 

I'm not worried as long as Cora is not worried.

 

Who was the poster that told me I was all wet for saying Barnes is regressing?

 

Me.

 

And you strongly implied Barnes had been cheating, not just regressing.

 

But hey, I provided data. That data still stands. Not my fault. You provided suspicion. I suppose getting beaten but the hottest hitter in the American League proves he is regressing, right. I mean, he has two bad at bats this series…

[mvp 78]

Looks like mixed results and many lop-sided sample sizes, but still tilts towards the back-ups over Vaz.

 

So the overall numbers give Vaz a clear edge. However, the small sample that you've whittled down leaves you believing that Plawecki has an edge. Seems more likely that your sample is the one with the issues.

[Bellhorn04]

So the overall numbers give Vaz a clear edge. However, the small sample that you've whittled down leaves you believing that Plawecki has an edge. Seems more likely that your sample is the one with the issues.

 

Plaw's overall CERA both years is Ultra Hefty Size.

[mvp 78]

Plaw's overall CERA both years is Ultra Hefty Size.

 

Ah, but I can prove you wrong by picking and choosing ultra SSS's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Me.

 

And you strongly implied Barnes had been cheating, not just regressing.

 

But hey, I provided data. That data still stands. Not my fault. You provided suspicion. I suppose getting beaten but the hottest hitter in the American League proves he is regressing, right. I mean, he has two bad at bats this series…

 

Semien or Springer?

 

Edit: It doesn't really matter. Once it was evident Barnes couldn't put away the back-up catcher batting 9th -- and that he couldn't get his curve over -- that any MLB hitter would be sitting dead red.

Edited August 9, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

So the overall numbers give Vaz a clear edge. However, the small sample that you've whittled down leaves you believing that Plawecki has an edge. Seems more likely that your sample is the one with the issues.

 

Overall CERA is meaningless, if one catcher catches better pitchers the bulk of his time.

 

CERA can only be used pitcher by pitcher to get the real picture.

 

BTW, I said the results with Plawecki are "mixed," but the results I found of the pitchers with the most IP the last 2 years seem to show a slight advantage to Plawecki, but many sample sizes are small or even tiny.

[moonslav59]

Ah, but I can prove you wrong by picking and choosing ultra SSS's.

 

I did not pick and choose. I selected all the pitchers with the most IP'd from 2020-2021- the time Plawecki was with the team.

 

If you want, I'll go and do all the even smaller sample size pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not pick and choose. I selected all the pitchers with the most IP'd from 2020-2021- the time Plawecki was with the team.

 

If you want, I'll go and do all the even smaller sample size pitchers.

 

Based on the numbers you provided, I'm guessing Plaw's numbers with relievers are horrendous.

[Bellhorn04]

The bottom line is, Kevin Plawecki is a career backup catcher for good reasons.

[mvp 78]

CERA can only be used pitcher by pitcher to get the real picture.

 

The CERA is just meaningless since the samples are too small.

[mvp 78]

I did not pick and choose. I selected all the pitchers with the most IP'd from 2020-2021- the time Plawecki was with the team.

 

If you want, I'll go and do all the even smaller sample size pitchers.

 

If the overall numbers heavily weigh towards Vaz having a better CERA, but your SSS's lean towards Plawecki, your sample is the problem.

[Maxbialystock]

I'll lift the lid off the Box, but I'm not going to dig into it.

 

CERA for whole staff:

 

2020

Vaz 5.23

Plaw 6.59

 

2021

Vaz 4.17

Plaw 4.93

 

I prefer moonslav's approach insofar as it compares the two catchers pitcher by pitcher. I also disregard 2020 for obvious reasons.

 

This year Vazquez and Plawecki are close, with a slight edge to Vazquez, on catching Eovaldi.

 

Vazquez is the only one to catch ERod, who is having easily his worse year with the Sox, but that is somewhat explained by ERod's COVID and heart issues last year (and this), so I call it neutral in terms of comparing the two catchers. No discredit to Vazquez for ERod's bad year.

 

Plawecki has a clear edge catching Pivetta, which I think is a big deal, and Richards, which is probably irrelevant since I'd like to boot Richards.

 

And Vazquez has a big edge catching Perez, also irrelevant.

 

Big edge to Vazquez catching Barnes, which I think could be significant. Plawecki was catching both games, Saturday game 1 and yesterday's game, when Barnes gave up homers in both games. I cite those games because I do blame Plawecki in part for the two dingers if only because he went along with Barnes preference for establishing his authority with heat. Both dingers were off fastballs, and I believe Barnes can excel as a closer only if the hitters do not or cannot have a reasonable expectation of seeing a fastball, especially one down the middle and that it's the catcher's job to ask for that knuckle curve. A possible excuse for Plawecki is that Barnes could be less confident in his knuckle curve these days because of the dictum on not doctoring the baseball. But, at the end of the day, it's results that count, and Barnes, by the numbers, stinks when Plawecki is behind the plate.

 

Neither catcher is good at throwing out baserunners, but Vazquez is still the better--20% of the time vs. 10%. Both have more than their fair share of passed balls--Vazquez 9 to Plawecki's 3.

 

So, even though there's a lot I don't like about Vazquez, I do give him the edge, but not by much. Plus Plawecki is hitting better.

[jacksonianmarch]

Barnes was always a guy who came up small in big moments

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Sale should wear a big 'S' on his jersey. While Super Sale recovers from Kryptonite exposure, the fans of a large metropolitan baseball team wait for him to save their baseball team from complete destruction. Look, up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane, no it's Super Sale.

[mvp 78]

Per Baseball Savant:

 

Vaz is better at framing and pop up time (Plawecki is 99th out of 102 players).

 

According to FanGraphs:

 

Vaz has made 46% of unlikely plays for his career (expectation is 10-40% likelihood). Plawecki is only at 20%. Hands, release, arm strength and arm accuracy.

 

Vaz is 2nd overall in dWAR. Wong is ranked AHEAD of Plawecki in dWAR. Connor Wong!

 

Overall, Vaz has better CERA numbers than Plawecki by a good margin. However, you can come up with a SSS that fits your narrative that all of these metrics are baloney and that only CERA on a pitcher by pitcher basis matters because somehow a micro sample size tells you the real story.

 

By any reasonable measure Vaz should remain the starting C.

[mvp 78]

Sale should wear a big 'S' on his jersey. While Super Sale recovers from Kryptonite exposure, the fans of a large metropolitan baseball team wait for him to save their baseball team from complete destruction. Look, up in the sky, it's a bird, it's a plane, no it's Super Sale.

 

His last turn in the rotation should have been for BOS.

[Maxbialystock]

As disappointing as the Toronto series was--especially yesterday's game when the Sox blew an 8-4 lead--my take away is that the Sox are only mostly dead. It's still too early to look for loose change in the Red Sox corpus.

 

Why? Four reasons. First and foremost, the Sox came to Toronto limping badly. The rotation stunk, the hitting was almost as bad, the baserunning stunk, and the defense was nothing to brag about.

 

And, true to that storyline, the Sox got killed Friday night, 12-4, with their putative ace Eovaldi on the mound. He threw 4 superb shutout innings and was destroyed in the 5th, when he gave up 7 runs and the Jays scored 9 total.

 

But Saturday was a vastly different story. The Sox had a real shot at winning both ends of that double-header because Pivetta was at his best (6 innings, 0 runs, 1 hit) and Houck was about what we hoped for (3.2 innings, 1 run). Meanwhile the hitting was miserable in both games and scored a total of 2 runs, one of them (the game-winner) unearned, in 15 innings. In the 2d game, which the Sox won, the bullpen (Taylor, Whitlock, Barnes, and Ottavino) pitched 4.1 shutout innings, which is kind of what they have done all season long.

 

Then yesterday the hitting finally took hold against a lefty, Ryu, who has plagued them in previous games: 8 runs on 16 hits (4 by JDM, 3 by Plawecki, 2 each by Bogie, Devers, Dalbec, and Duran). Even starter Richards was better than his usual, going 5 innings while giving up 4 (3 earned). But yesterday the bullpen (Taylor, Sawamura, Ottavino, and Barnes) all struggled and gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings and lost a 4 run lead and the game.

 

My take, no doubt overly optimistic, is that the Sox came oh so close to winning this series, 3 games to 1, against a team that is actually very good and playing their best ball of this season. And they did so because the rotation actually began to show some signs of competence (even though I hope the Sox dump Richards and Perez soon) and because the hitters showed some signs of life.

 

As for the bullpen, I think that 4th game in 3 days was just a bridge too far. Taylor, Sawamura, Ottavino, and Barnes have all been terrific this season and were in fact terrific in game 3, the second game on Saturday.

 

So, in sum, I see positive signs in the rotation and the hitting and believe that bullpen is still good. Also, the Sox could have swept the last 3 games in Toronto, winning one by 1 run and losing the other two each by 1 run. Indeed, both of those 1 run Sox losses were on dingers given up by Barnes, who apparently has decided that he doesn't need (or believes he no longer has) that knuckle curve that used to destroy hitters.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Barnes was always a guy who came up small in big moments

 

So postseason doesn't count as big moments?

[Bellhorn04]

So, even though there's a lot I don't like about Vazquez, I do give him the edge, but not by much. Plus Plawecki is hitting better.

 

Plawecki is hitting well right now. But you can be pretty sure he'll regress to his norm the more he plays.