A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Maxbialystock]

His last turn in the rotation should have been for BOS.

 

Ahem. His last turn was Saturday. On that day, playing a double header (7 + 8 innings), the Sox gave up a total of 2 runs in 15 innings--1 run in each game.

 

I do think Sale would have lasted longer than Houck (3.2 innings, 1 run), but cannot be sure he would have given up 1 or no runs. The 2018 Sale could certainly have done better than Houck, but the August 2021 Sale is still a question mark. Pitching well in AA and/or AAA no longer provides the same level of assurance it once did.

[moonslav59]

So the overall numbers give Vaz a clear edge. However, the small sample that you've whittled down leaves you believing that Plawecki has an edge. Seems more likely that your sample is the one with the issues.

 

It's the only way to sue CERA. That's why CERA is not very useful, especially when crossing between two different teams with different park and defense issues and pitchers catching.

 

That's one reason I usually say CERA-related numbers.

 

Here's another way to look at it:

 

OPS Against (listed in order of most PAs caught)

Highlighted in Red with greater than a .020 OPS)

(sample sizes below 20 PAs not listed)

 

Vazquez

E Rodrig .777 (454)

Richards .895 (441)

M Perez ..781 (384)

NPivetta .717 (381)

NEovaldi .723 (243)

Whitlock .557 (197)

Sawamu .767 (162)

Andriese 1.002 (141)

MBarnes .439 (136)

Ottavino .520 (136)

J Taylor ...669 (109)

D Hernan .762 (106)

P Valdez ..702 (96)

Workman .828 (77)

Yack Rios ..599 (75)

Ta Houck ...459 (49)

Aust Brice .1.056 (40)

 

 

Plawecki

Eovaldi .694 (208)

Pivetta .718 (118)

MPerez 1.248 (66)

Richards .682 (63)

J Taylor ..673 (56)

Ottavino .855 (56)

Ta Houck .692 (44)

Da Hern ..540 (44)

M Barnes ..897 (33)

Ry Weber .1.500 (30)

Andriese .675 (27)

A Brice .492 (24)

 

Again, very mixed results with several pitchers not having 20 or more PAs with one catcher or the other, and a very slight tilt to Plawecki doing better with more pitchers than Vaz does.

 

It wouldn't be an eye-opener, if this didn't happen with all other previous catchers, except Swihart.

 

Also, I am not advocating Plawecki as the starting catcher.

I'm just pointing out that Vaz's "defensive metrics" leaves out one important aspect of his game- getting less success from the staff than his back up, year after year after year.

 

(I'm not going to go back to previous years, but I did the same study with Leon and others, and the results were the same.)

Edited August 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Per Baseball Savant:

 

Vaz is better at framing and pop up time (Plawecki is 99th out of 102 players).

 

According to FanGraphs:

 

Vaz has made 46% of unlikely plays for his career (expectation is 10-40% likelihood). Plawecki is only at 20%. Hands, release, arm strength and arm accuracy.

 

Vaz is 2nd overall in dWAR. Wong is ranked AHEAD of Plawecki in dWAR. Connor Wong!

 

Overall, Vaz has better CERA numbers than Plawecki by a good margin. However, you can come up with a SSS that fits your narrative that all of these metrics are baloney and that only CERA on a pitcher by pitcher basis matters because somehow a micro sample size tells you the real story.

 

By any reasonable measure Vaz should remain the starting C.

 

And that *should be* the end of it.

[mvp 78]

So postseason doesn't count as big moments?

 

Big moments for a closer only happen when you blow it.

[Maxbialystock]

Plawecki is hitting well right now. But you can be pretty sure he'll regress to his norm the more he plays.

 

Possibly. Certainly others have done so this season. But, assuming that Cora has every intention of keeping Vazquez in the primary slot, we are only talking about a few more games for Plawecki, maybe 3 or 4. Plus let's not forget that Plawecki doesn't have Vazquez's annoying habit of running into outs at every opportunity.

[mvp 78]

And that *should be* the end of it.

 

I'm not advocating for why I don't like this catcher, I'm just using my well thought out micro sample sizes to justify why I'm smarter than all the advanced metrics you can come up with.

[moonslav59]

Barnes was always a guy who came up small in big moments

 

Just plain false. Why not check the numbers before spouting untruths?

 

His career OPS Against is .685.

 

Cutch Stats:

.663 Late & Close

.617 RISP

.523 2 outs RISP

.661 men on base

 

Only these stats support your claim:

.702 High Leverage (still a decent number and not far from .685)

.662 Medium Leverage

.685 Low Leverage

 

(He's basically .685 low lev and .685 Med + High Lev.)

[moonslav59]

Ahem. His last turn was Saturday. On that day, playing a double header (7 + 8 innings), the Sox gave up a total of 2 runs in 15 innings--1 run in each game.

 

I do think Sale would have lasted longer than Houck (3.2 innings, 1 run), but cannot be sure he would have given up 1 or no runs. The 2018 Sale could certainly have done better than Houck, but the August 2021 Sale is still a question mark. Pitching well in AA and/or AAA no longer provides the same level of assurance it once did.

 

We'd have started Sale instead or Richards or Perez, even if it meant pushing back a starter or date.

[moonslav59]

Per Baseball Savant:

 

Vaz is better at framing and pop up time (Plawecki is 99th out of 102 players).

 

According to FanGraphs:

 

Vaz has made 46% of unlikely plays for his career (expectation is 10-40% likelihood). Plawecki is only at 20%. Hands, release, arm strength and arm accuracy.

 

Vaz is 2nd overall in dWAR. Wong is ranked AHEAD of Plawecki in dWAR. Connor Wong!

 

Overall, Vaz has better CERA numbers than Plawecki by a good margin. However, you can come up with a SSS that fits your narrative that all of these metrics are baloney and that only CERA on a pitcher by pitcher basis matters because somehow a micro sample size tells you the real story.

 

By any reasonable measure Vaz should remain the starting C.

 

Straw man.

 

I never said make Plawecki the starting catcher.

[moonslav59]

Possibly. Certainly others have done so this season. But, assuming that Cora has every intention of keeping Vazquez in the primary slot, we are only talking about a few more games for Plawecki, maybe 3 or 4. Plus let's not forget that Plawecki doesn't have Vazquez's annoying habit of running into outs at every opportunity.

 

I actually mentioned maybe 250 PAs for Plawecki. That leaves 450 for Vaz.

 

I'm not saying bench Vaz, and just about everyone agrees, he needs more rest.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, if Sale's next start isn't for Boston, I'll be screaming too.

[mvp 78]

Possibly. Certainly others have done so this season. But, assuming that Cora has every intention of keeping Vazquez in the primary slot, we are only talking about a few more games for Plawecki, maybe 3 or 4. Plus let's not forget that Plawecki doesn't have Vazquez's annoying habit of running into outs at every opportunity.

 

So one area where Plawecki is better than Vaz is baserunning. He's faster (barely) per sprint speed and has a better BSR. However, Plawecki isn't Ricky Henderson out there. He's not Johnny Bench either. He's horrible with a glove.

 

658 OPS prior to ASB

1017 OPS since ASB

 

He will cool off sooner than later.

 

Plawecki OPS 2021:

Jays - 1060

Yankees - 714

Rays - 393

O's - 432

 

Or just have him be the starter whenever TOR is in town?

[mvp 78]

I actually mentioned maybe 250 PAs for Plawecki. That leaves 450 for Vaz.

 

I'm not saying bench Vaz, and just about everyone agrees, he needs more rest.

 

If they are just going to tank anyway, give those AB's to Wong.

[dgalehouse]

So postseason doesn't count as big moments?

 

When you're a closer, they're all big moments . Even the GOAT, Mariano Rivera , is remembered for the few times he failed. Give Barnes a break. He will be alright. And we need him to be. Closers always need to have a short memory. Barnes knows that.

[Bellhorn04]

Straw man.

 

I never said make Plawecki the starting catcher.

 

You did, however, seem to be trying to make a case that he's a better player than Vaz, even touting his superior offensive numbers for 2020-2021.

[dgalehouse]

Vasquez is better. Plawecki is a pretty good backup catcher. I think we are getting a little desperate here lately with the team slumping.

[Bellhorn04]

Vasquez is better. Plawecki is a pretty good backup catcher. I think we are getting a little desperate here lately with the team slumping.

 

Yes, yes and yes.

[moonslav59]

As the season has worn on, Vaz Offense after day(s) off

 

End of JuneJune

3-4 (2B)

0-5

 

July

0-3

1-4

2-4

0-4 (after AS break)

1-4

0-3

 

AUG'

2-4

1-3

 

Remember his BA is .257, so 1-4 is about average.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

You did, however, seem to be trying to make a case that he's a better player than Vaz, even touting his superior offensive numbers for 2020-2021.

 

Where did I ever say Plawecki should be the #1 catcher?

 

I said he should get 250 PAs.

[moonslav59]

You did, however, seem to be trying to make a case that he's a better player than Vaz, even touting his superior offensive numbers for 2020-2021.

 

I said better with pitcher not framing, blocking and other factors.

 

I said Plawecki has been a batter hitter since 2020, but not over their careers.

 

I never said demote Vaz to back-up. Never.

 

Vaz needs more rest, and we have an excellent back up catcher who should be used more often, especially with pitchers he gets better results from.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I said better with pitcher not framing, blocking and other factors.

 

I said Plawecki has been a batter hitter since 2020, but not over their careers.

 

I never said demote Vaz to back-up. Never.

 

Vaz needs more rest, and we have an excellent back up catcher who should be used more often, especially with pitchers he gets better results from.

 

No worries. Coincidentally, Bradford wrote a column today about how KP should be playing more (though he didn't use the word platoon with Vazstremski).

[mvp 78]

Vasquez is better. Plawecki is a pretty good backup catcher. I think we are getting a little desperate here lately with the team slumping.

 

They didn't go 2-8 because of the catchers.

[mvp 78]

No worries. Coincidentally, Bradford wrote a column today about how KP should be playing more (though he didn't use the word platoon with Vazstremski).

 

It's going to be a long wait for Vaz to reach 3,000 games, especially with Plawecki eating into his playing time.

[moonslav59]

I really did not mean to make Plawecki playing more often into a big issue, nor the Vaz getting a little less from more pitchers than his back-up. It's not a major differential, like it was with Leon, but hey, Vaz needs more rest, and Plawecki is a good back-up.

 

Just play Plawecki a little more, is all I'm saying, and I gave my reasons.

 

Obviously 1B and the rotation are our highest need areas.

 

Secondly, Bogey needs some more rest to get his wrist back to 100%. I was hoping we could wait until Arroyo returned to do that, but there is no word on when he returns, and a 50% Bogey is still better than Marwin.

 

JD seems to be responding to more rest days, but we can't afford giving him days off until Schwarber is ready, and even then, we'll need him at 1B near FT. We could use Dalbec at 1B vs LHPs (.790), but we don't want to rest JD vs lefties for Schwarber at DH. Better to use Schawarber in LF vs some LHPs.

[MADSTORK]

Semien or Springer?

 

Edit: It doesn't really matter. Once it was evident Barnes couldn't put away the back-up catcher batting 9th -- and that he couldn't get his curve over -- that any MLB hitter would be sitting dead red.

 

Im not Defending Barnes go back and watch the AB vs McGuire before springer, He throws a pitch inside high not called a strike second pitch later same location its called a strike?

Your right, He should have challenged McGuire not Springer which is a bigger problem at the moment.

 

Why would you come back with a fastball to Springer Why?

[oldtimer]

I really did not mean to make Plawecki playing more often into a big issue, nor the Vaz getting a little less from more pitchers than his back-up. It's not a major differential, like it was with Leon, but hey, Vaz needs more rest, and Plawecki is a good back-up.

 

Just play Plawecki a little more, is all I'm saying, and I gave my reasons.

 

Obviously 1B and the rotation are our highest need areas.

 

Secondly, Bogey needs some more rest to get his wrist back to 100%. I was hoping we could wait until Arroyo returned to do that, but there is no word on when he returns, and a 50% Bogey is still better than Marwin.

 

JD seems to be responding to more rest days, but we can't afford giving him days off until Schwarber is ready, and even then, we'll need him at 1B near FT. We could use Dalbec at 1B vs LHPs (.790), but we don't want to rest JD vs lefties for Schwarber at DH. Better to use Schawarber in LF vs some LHPs.

 

I would make some changes before Tuesday. What do we have to lose? DFA Santana and move Gonzalez off the 40 man. I understand Swamamura may go on the injured list and with DHern there already and Brazier making slow progress I would bring Seabold and Munoz up. We need pitching depth and a better Utility man effort.

[dgalehouse]

Ever notice that with a lot of fans it's always about the Sox player. Be it good or bad. As if the opponent was invisible. Example: If J.D. hits a game winning homer. " What a great clutch at bat. " J.D. strikes out . " J.D. choked again." But if Springer hits a game winning homer. " Barnes choked. What a meatball." And if Springer strikes out. " Great pitching by Barnes." Folks , the other team has major leaguers too.

[moonslav59]

I'd do this:

I won't mention DFA'ing Marwin because he won't be DFA'd, and he's better than the players I listed below to DFA.

 

I can't believe they sent Houck down again. We'll miss one more start by him.

 

DFA Robles, Santana, Richards or Andriese and add Munoz to the 40.

Call up Munoz & demote Arauz

 

Promote Sale (Saturday) & demote A Davis (2 options remaining). Send Richards to the pen.

 

Promote Houck (after 10 days?) & demote or DFA Robles, Santana, Richards or Andriese (whoever hasn't already been DFA'd for Munoz). Add Ort, Gonsalves, Espinal or Schreiber to 40 and keep in AAA.

 

Off the IL (when???)

 

Schwarber: Demote Cordero to AAA

 

D Hern: Demote Rios or Richards or DFA someone from the list above.

 

Brasier: Demote Rios or Richards or DFA someone from the list above (Perez?).

 

Andriese: DFA Andriese

Santana: DFA Santana

 

[notin]

So postseason doesn't count as big moments?

 

He makes that comment about everyone not currently wearing pinstripes…

[notin]

Ever notice that with a lot of fans it's always about the Sox player. Be it good or bad. As if the opponent was invisible. Example: If J.D. hits a game winning homer. " What a great clutch at bat. " J.D. strikes out . " J.D. choked again." But if Springer hits a game winning homer. " Barnes choked. What a meatball." And if Springer strikes out. " Great pitching by Barnes." Folks , the other team has major leaguers too.

 

Another “clutch vs myth of clutch” argument, even though it was probably never intended as one.

 

Springer has been on fire since the All Star break. Not surprising he started red hot for one more at bat…