A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[dgalehouse]

Another “clutch vs myth of clutch” argument, even though it was probably never intended as one.

 

Springer has been on fire since the All Star break. Not surprising he started red hot for one more at bat…

 

When we get sick of arguing about clutch , we can argue about whether a hitter can get " hot" or be in a " cold spell." And is there such a thing as " momentum?"

[mvp 78]

When we get sick of arguing about clutch , we can argue about whether a hitter can get " hot" or be in a " cold spell." And is there such a thing as " momentum?"

 

Unstoppable force vs the immovable object.

[Bellhorn04]

When we get sick of arguing about clutch , we can argue about whether a hitter can get " hot" or be in a " cold spell." And is there such a thing as " momentum?"

 

A new thread on clutch/choke is coming.

[moonslav59]

When we get sick of arguing about clutch , we can argue about whether a hitter can get " hot" or be in a " cold spell." And is there such a thing as " momentum?"

 

Yes, yes & yes.

[Maxbialystock]

Ever notice that with a lot of fans it's always about the Sox player. Be it good or bad. As if the opponent was invisible. Example: If J.D. hits a game winning homer. " What a great clutch at bat. " J.D. strikes out . " J.D. choked again." But if Springer hits a game winning homer. " Barnes choked. What a meatball." And if Springer strikes out. " Great pitching by Barnes." Folks , the other team has major leaguers too.

 

Absolutely no question that both the Springer game winner yesterday and the Guerrero game winner Saturday were more likely because those two, especially Guerrero, are very good hitters.

 

On the other hand, that's all the more reason for Barnes to give it his best effort. Against Guerrero on Saturday, his first pitch was a fast 96 mph right down the middle, which Guerrero jerked out of the park. Interestingly, Barnes faced Guerrero again yesterday and struck him out, but this time he mixed in curves and change-ups. Also, against Springer yesterday Barnes threw mostly fast balls, which were obviously tempting fate. Barnes must mix in breaking balls, especially his knuckle curve, to be successful.

[dgalehouse]

Absolutely no question that both the Springer game winner yesterday and the Guerrero game winner Saturday were more likely because those two, especially Guerrero, are very good hitters.

 

On the other hand, that's all the more reason for Barnes to give it his best effort. Against Guerrero on Saturday, his first pitch was a fast 96 mph right down the middle, which Guerrero jerked out of the park. Interestingly, Barnes faced Guerrero again yesterday and struck him out, but this time he mixed in curves and change-ups. Also, against Springer yesterday Barnes threw mostly fast balls, which were obviously tempting fate. Barnes must mix in breaking balls, especially his knuckle curve, to be successful.

 

Your analysis is interesting. But it was Semien who hit the walk off homer off Barnes on Saturday. Get it right.

[moonslav59]

We have today and next Monday off, and Sale joining the team on Saturday, assuming he starts that day, but Houck is in AAA, so I do not think he can be called up to pitch on Friday. If this is true, WTF?

 

So...

Mon: Off

TUE: ERod (+1 day rest)vs Patino (TBR)

WED: Eovaldi vs ____ (TBR)

THU: Pivetta vs ____ (TBR)

FRI: Richards NOT HOUCK? vs _____ (BAL)

SAT: Chris Freakin' Sale vs _____ (BAL)

SUN: ERod vs _____ (BAL)

Mon OFF

TUE (2), WED @ NYY, THU off, FRI-SUN vs TEX

 

Do we start a rotation of

Eovaldi (+1 day rest) + Pivetta in DBLHDR vs NYY and Houck on WED

Day off

Sale (+1 days rest vs TEX)

ERod (+ 1 day rest vs TEX)

 

Repeat

 

No more Richards or Perez starts!

 

[illinoisredsox]

Ever notice that with a lot of fans it's always about the Sox player. Be it good or bad. As if the opponent was invisible. Example: If J.D. hits a game winning homer. " What a great clutch at bat. " J.D. strikes out . " J.D. choked again." But if Springer hits a game winning homer. " Barnes choked. What a meatball." And if Springer strikes out. " Great pitching by Barnes." Folks , the other team has major leaguers too.

 

Bingo.

 

Barnes is tied for second in the AL and for 4th in the majors in saves with 24. He's converted 24 of 29 on the year so he has 5 blown saves. So does the AL leader in saves, Hendriks of the White Sox(26/31). The guy he's tied with, the Angels' Iglesias is also 24/29. Chapman, who we would all agree has much better raw stuff than probably all of these pitchers, is 23/27.

 

The major league leader in saves is Melancon with the Padres, he's blown, wait for it, 5 (33/38). Reyes of the Cardinals has a great percentage at 25/26 and the Giants' McGee is 24/26.

 

Mariano Rivera was the Yankees' main closer for 16 seasons and pitched in 19 seasons for them. He blew 80 saves in his career (regular season), or roughly 5 per year. Is anyone here seriously comparing Barnes with the GOAT?

 

Barnes has done a good job overall. He didn't have his curve. He can get away with the curve only better than he can get away with the fastball only, but he really needs both working on a given day.

Edited August 9, 2021 by illinoisredsox

[jacksonianmarch]

Houck can be called back up. He was the 27th man for the DHer, so that doesn’t adjust his clock at all. He’ll be at the ten day mark by the time he can start again and it’ll be in Boston

[moonslav59]

Houck can be called back up. He was the 27th man for the DHer, so that doesn’t adjust his clock at all. He’ll be at the ten day mark by the time he can start again and it’ll be in Boston

 

Thanks.

[oldtimer]

I'd do this:

I won't mention DFA'ing Marwin because he won't be DFA'd, and he's better than the players I listed below to DFA.

 

I can't believe they sent Houck down again. We'll miss one more start by him.

 

DFA Robles, Santana, Richards or Andriese and add Munoz to the 40.

Call up Munoz & demote Arauz

 

Promote Sale (Saturday) & demote A Davis (2 options remaining). Send Richards to the pen.

 

Promote Houck (after 10 days?) & demote or DFA Robles, Santana, Richards or Andriese (whoever hasn't already been DFA'd for Munoz). Add Ort, Gonsalves, Espinal or Schreiber to 40 and keep in AAA.

 

Off the IL (when???)

 

Schwarber: Demote Cordero to AAA

 

D Hern: Demote Rios or Richards or DFA someone from the list above.

 

Brasier: Demote Rios or Richards or DFA someone from the list above (Perez?).

 

Andriese: DFA Andriese

Santana: DFA Santana.

 

Cora did say they pan to activate player(s) this week which will help them a lot. He may mean Verdugo back from paternity leave, but I think he means new players. We shall soon see.

[moonslav59]

Cora did say they pan to activate player(s) this week which will help them a lot. He may mean Verdugo back from paternity leave, but I think he means new players. We shall soon see.

 

1 is Sale. Another has to be Houck.

 

I'm not sure Brasier or Arroyo are ready, yet, and it looks like Scwarber isn't.

 

Who else is there? Munoz? (add to 40)

 

I hope it's not Santana or Andriese.

[Larry Cook]

Absolutely no question that both the Springer game winner yesterday and the Guerrero game winner Saturday were more likely because those two, especially Guerrero, are very good hitters.

 

On the other hand, that's all the more reason for Barnes to give it his best effort. Against Guerrero on Saturday, his first pitch was a fast 96 mph right down the middle, which Guerrero jerked out of the park. Interestingly, Barnes faced Guerrero again yesterday and struck him out, but this time he mixed in curves and change-ups. Also, against Springer yesterday Barnes threw mostly fast balls, which were obviously tempting fate. Barnes must mix in breaking balls, especially his knuckle curve, to be successful.

 

If Barnes keeps serving up meatballs, he is going to single handedly turn lot of deadbeats into “clutch” hitters!

[oldtimer]

1 is Sale. Another has to be Houck.

 

I'm not sure Brasier or Arroyo are ready, yet, and it looks like Scwarber isn't.

 

Who else is there? Munoz? (add to 40)

 

I hope it's not Santana or Andriese.

 

Cora does seem to be stubborn about staying with players, even though they are not performing.

[notin]

Cora does seem to be stubborn about staying with players, even though they are not performing.

 

A complaint made about every manager every year.

 

It’s probably a good thing most managers aren’t as impulsive as most fans. If Cora was as impulsive as me, he would have given up on Phillips Valdez in March and Josh Taylor in April..,

[jacksonianmarch]

Right now there are no probables beyond Eovaldi. Very good chance Richards is also in the pen going forward

[Bellhorn04]

A complaint made about every manager every year.

 

It’s probably a good thing most managers aren’t as impulsive as most fans. If Cora was as impulsive as me, he would have given up on Phillips Valdez in March and Josh Taylor in April..,

 

Exactly.

[notin]

Right now there are no probables beyond Eovaldi. Very good chance Richards is also in the pen going forward

 

But the question is … who’s pen?

[mvp 78]

But the question is … who’s pen?

 

IDK. Who really is pen these days?

[notin]

IDK. Who really is pen these days?

 

Yeah the auto correct seems to prefer contractions over possessive pronouns. And of course I missed it…

[Kimmi]

When we get sick of arguing about clutch , we can argue about whether a hitter can get " hot" or be in a " cold spell." And is there such a thing as " momentum?"

 

No need to argue. The answers are no and no.

[Kimmi]

Ever notice that with a lot of fans it's always about the Sox player. Be it good or bad. As if the opponent was invisible. Example: If J.D. hits a game winning homer. " What a great clutch at bat. " J.D. strikes out . " J.D. choked again." But if Springer hits a game winning homer. " Barnes choked. What a meatball." And if Springer strikes out. " Great pitching by Barnes." Folks , the other team has major leaguers too.

 

The Jays are a great offensive team. They are never out of a game that is within 5 runs. Have to give them credit.

 

And credit to Barnes for accepting 100% responsibility for the loss, even though the loss was not 100% on him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Being impulsive is dangerous but being too patient can be irrational too, and the issue with Cora (and/or the Red Sox front office) this season concerns the latter more than the former.

 

Dalbec, & Gonzalez & Cordero = 703 PA and counting.

 

I suppose a similar argument could be made about Perez and Richards, but I’m trying to figure out who would have replaced them in the rotation. What would have happpened if, say, Richards got hurt 1-2 months ago?

[moonslav59]

A complaint made about every manager every year.

 

It’s probably a good thing most managers aren’t as impulsive as most fans. If Cora was as impulsive as me, he would have given up on Phillips Valdez in March and Josh Taylor in April..,

 

Some posters wanted Devers demoted "to work on fielding and finding his groove" back in April. Several wanted Renfroe benched in early May. Many bitched about Kike's playing time: now, they bitch if he's given a rest day.

 

It happens every year, and the same people never seem to be surprised when players do not always repeat what they did the past week, month or several months the next month or year(s).

[vegasbob]

Nine critical games to be played over the next 8 days which could feature a recovery of position vs the Rays and Yankees or a continuation of the death spiral . One issue is that Chris Sale only gets used in one of those games, and I will guess Kyle Scwarber does not play at all. Why does Sale need a week between his last rehab start and going into play . If he pitched on Friday vs the O's , he might have gone vs the Yankees next Wednesday.

 

Just seeing very little urgency by FO to win now.

[mvp 78]

Nine critical games to be played over the next 8 days which could feature a recovery of position vs the Rays and Yankees or a continuation of the death spiral . One issue is that Chris Sale only gets used in one of those games, and I will guess Kyle Scwarber does not play at all. Why does Sale need a week between his last rehab start and going into play . If he pitched on Friday vs the O's , he might have gone vs the Yankees next Wednesday.

 

Just seeing very little urgency by FO to win now.

 

He's coming off TJS.

[moonslav59]

I never wanted our playoff (or ring) hopes to rest fully on Sale's shoulders, but it looks like that's the way it is shaping up. Maybe Houck or Schwarber on O or a resurgence from Pivetta, ERod and Eovalid (or at least two of these three) can take up some of the slack, but it's going to come down to Sale

 

This should be good enough to make the playoffs:

 

1. Sale at 80-90%

2. Eovaldi (like from April to mid July)

3. ERod (like over his last 8 starts)

4. Houck (SSS needs to repeat)

5. Pivetta (has shown life.)

[dgalehouse]

Although it's been said many times, many ways, ( Besides Merry Christmas) a baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Folks keep forgetting that. They live and die with every game.

[dgalehouse]

This is an ideal chance to right the ship. Do well versus the Rays , then we get the woeful Orioles. After the Yankees, it's the very beatable, playing out the string, Rangers , Twins and Guardians. This schedule provides the perfect opportunity to turn things around. If we can't succeed here , we don't deserve to be a contender .

[oldtimer]

Some posters wanted Devers demoted "to work on fielding and finding his groove" back in April. Several wanted Renfroe benched in early May. Many bitched about Kike's playing time: now, they bitch if he's given a rest day.

 

It happens every year, and the same people never seem to be surprised when players do not always repeat what they did the past week, month or several months the next month or year(s).

 

So, are you saying that Cora was appropriately patient with Dalbec, Gonzalez and Cordero?