A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

At what point do we acknowledge that Dalbec is also not a seasoned first baseman?

 

I don’t think anyone expects Schwarber to step into the position and look like Kevin Youkilis over there, but at the very least I expect he can top Dalbec’s lackluster offense and come close to replacing his mediocre defense for an overall net gain against RHP. (Dalbec will probably still start vs LHP and, if Schwarber is particularly horrific at 1b, come in as a defensive replacement late in close games.)

 

Good point, and maybe Schwarber can play LF vs lefties and give Verdugo a "rest" vs lefties.

 

In a pinch, could Schwarber catch an inning or two?

[Maxbialystock]

Good to see 15 IP with just 2 runs allowed.

 

That should have been enough for a sweep, but with the troubles this offense has been having, maybe we should be glad we got a split.

 

Houck and Pivetta could hold the key to a sustained rebound, but Sale is now our best hope.

 

Actually, there's a pretty decent rotation once Richards and Perez are gone: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, and ERod. All 5 have shown they can pitch well without doctoring up the ball, and there is no way one starter, even Sale at is best, can fix a rotation. Plus the Sox are going to continue to need an excellent bullpen with 8 arms and possibly 9.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

Good point, and maybe Schwarber can play LF vs lefties and give Verdugo a "rest" vs lefties.

 

In a pinch, could Schwarber catch an inning or two?

 

I think Schwarber’s catching days took a severe hit when he tore up his knee in an outfield collision back in 2016.

 

Apparently he has caught 8 innings since then, but I don’t know the circumstances. He might be an emergency catcher, but only until/if the Sox call up Wong in September.

 

Me? I wouldn’t risk him there. But we’ll see what Cora does…

[notin]

Actually, there's a pretty decent rotation once Richards and Perez are gone: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, and ERod. All 5 have shown they can pitch well without doctoring up the ball, and there is no way one starter, even Sale at is best, can fix a rotation. Plus the Sox are going to continue to need an excellent bullpen with 8 arms and possibly 9.

 

I’d put money on Richards getting a DFA to put Sale on the roster. He’s admitted he got by using substances.

 

Perez had flopped recently, too, but for him this kind of funk just seems to happen all the time. The Sox likely hold on to him to see if it ends. But Cora has so far shown little faith with a lot of early hooks we probably would not have seen in April and May…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But if you’re going to have a player shift over to any position for the first time, first base is easily the best place…

 

Nah: centerfielder moving to left -- less running, easier throw to third, and only one "fair" side to worry about...

[notin]

Nah: centerfielder moving to left -- less running, easier throw to third, and only one "fair" side to worry about...

 

So let’s put Schwarber there…

[notin]

Good news: Sale is back Saturday!

 

Bad news: Verdugo is on paternity leave

 

(Ok, it’s not bad news that he is going to be with his wine as she has their child. Just that the Sox would miss his recently returned bat for a few days while so many others are out and struggling. Yeah that’s the selfish viewpoint.)

[moonslav59]

We are now past the two-thirds mark of the season, and although some of these sample sizes are small, here are our left-righty splits:

 

vs RHPs

.985 Devers

.976 Schwarber (.873 career)

.935 JDM

.931 Verdugo

.875 Bogey

.737 Kike

.729 Renfroe

.715 Arroyo

.710 Vaz

.655 Plawecki

.552 Dalbec

.547 Duran

.544 Santana

.532 Cordero (109 PAS!)

.494 Marwin (192 PAS!)

vs LHPs

.894 Arroyo

.874 Bogey

.864 Kike

.850 Renfroe

.820 Plawecki

.790 Dalbec

.765 JDM

.759 Marwin

.736 Schwarber (.665 career)

.588 Santana

.530 Vaz

 

Career Notes:

Arroyo is nearly identical vs R (.691) and L (.702).

Vaz has normally been pretty even R (.682)/ L (.718)

Verdugo should maybe be platooned R (.853)/ L(.666)

Renfroe's D is too important to platoon him R (.719)/ L(.899)

Marwin has been pretty even. R (.714)/ L (.726)

Plawecki has been nearly even. R (.661)/ L (.664)

 

Small sample sizes:

Dalbec R (.639)/ L (.840)

Cordero R (.705)/ L (.544)

 

For now, anyway, Cordero should not start vs LHPs, Dalbec vs RHPs and serious consideration should be given to "resting" Verdugo vs most lefties (Schwarber in LF v LHPs?).

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Let's chunk the rest of the Sox schedule into these bunches:

 

After today's Toronto game, we'll see this:

 

3 TBR, 3 BAL & 3 @NYY (5-4 would be great, esp if not 3-0 v BAL)

 

3 TEX, 3 MN & 3 @ CLE (We may need 7-2 or 6-3, here.)

 

4 @ TBR, 3 CLE & 3 TBR (This could be it. 5-5 may be enough.)

 

3 @ CWS & 3 @ SEA (Not easy to go 3-3.)

 

Then, a possible bright spot to end the season, so even if we are looking bad by September 16th, don't count us out:

 

3 BAL, 2 NYM, 3 NYY (8 home games- 6-2?)

 

3 @ BAL & 3 @ WSH (6 road games vs bad teams- 4-2 or 5-1?)

 

Of course, I don't expect all these possible outcomes to all come true, but there is reason for some hope, especially how we end September.

 

Tampa Bay's last 6 games?

3 @ HOU

3 @NYY

 

Yankees last 9 games?

3 @BOS

3 @TOR

3 v TBR

 

Don't count the Sox out, if we are 2 down with 6-9 games to go.

 

 

Interesting look, thanks.

 

However, right now the only strong suit I see for the Sox is the bullpen. Rotation (Pivetta and Houck) looked great yesterday, but the hitting, baserunning, and defense continue to look shabby. And don't forget Garrett Richards starts today. That said, starting Thursday the rotation will likely be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, and ERod, so there might be hope for the rotation. We'll see.

 

Meanwhile, however, the lineup is hurting bad. JDM was great in April, but has been well below his lifetime .883 OPS in May (.801), June (.788), July (.806) , and especially August (.561). Bogaerts' August OPS is .524, and it was .730 in July. JDM could be showing his age, and Bogaerts the effects of that wrist injury. And I am convinced Devers .603 OPS for August is the result of trying to make up for the shortfalls from JDM and Bogie. If there is slightly good news, it could be that JDM, who is struggling badly at the plate, is on the IL for awhile.

 

However, Schwarber is lost in Yonkers or somewhere else where the Sox don't have any games scheduled. Ditto Arroyo. So Cora's lineup card these days ain't exactly filled with good hitters: Kike, Verdugo, and Renfroe are about it until the big three return to form and/or Schwarber and Arroyo can get out of Yonkers.

[notin]

Don’t underestimate Verdugo’s defense as well…

[dgalehouse]

Houck clearly is legit and belongs in the rotation. All the talk about how he needs another pitch and should be in the bullpen is pure overthink and counterproductive. Together with Sale , they can revive the rotation and revive hope.

[moonslav59]

Actually, there's a pretty decent rotation once Richards and Perez are gone: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, and ERod. All 5 have shown they can pitch well without doctoring up the ball, and there is no way one starter, even Sale at is best, can fix a rotation. Plus the Sox are going to continue to need an excellent bullpen with 8 arms and possibly 9.

 

Agreed, and Pivetta become our #5 not our #3.

[moonslav59]

Good news: Sale is back Saturday!

 

Bad news: Verdugo is on paternity leave

 

(Ok, it’s not bad news that he is going to be with his wine as she has their child. Just that the Sox would miss his recently returned bat for a few days while so many others are out and struggling. Yeah that’s the selfish viewpoint.)

 

Just when it looked like Verdugo was coming back to life.

[notin]

Prediction:

 

By next Saturday, the Sox will activate both Schwarber and Sale.

 

Barring a massive turnaround, the Sox will DFA Richards to open a 40 man roster spot for Sale. (While I don’t advocate this behavior, if I’m Richards, I’m loading up on Spider Tack ASAP, as he has literally reached the point where he has nothing to lose.)

 

To fit Schwarber on the active roster, Franchy Cordero or Connor Wong will be demoted to Worcester…

[notin]

Just when it looked like Verdugo was coming back to life.

 

Yeah but this is OK.

 

It’s just a couple games and there is no need for a rehab stint. Although he might need some sleep…

[moonslav59]

Interesting look, thanks.

 

However, right now the only strong suit I see for the Sox is the bullpen. Rotation (Pivetta and Houck) looked great yesterday, but the hitting, baserunning, and defense continue to look shabby. And don't forget Garrett Richards starts today. That said, starting Thursday the rotation will likely be Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, and ERod, so there might be hope for the rotation. We'll see.

 

Meanwhile, however, the lineup is hurting bad. JDM was great in April, but has been well below his lifetime .883 OPS in May (.801), June (.788), July (.806) , and especially August (.561). Bogaerts' August OPS is .524, and it was .730 in July. JDM could be showing his age, and Bogaerts the effects of that wrist injury. And I am convinced Devers .603 OPS for August is the result of trying to make up for the shortfalls from JDM and Bogie. If there is slightly good news, it could be that JDM, who is struggling badly at the plate, is on the IL for awhile.

 

However, Schwarber is lost in Yonkers or somewhere else where the Sox don't have any games scheduled. Ditto Arroyo. So Cora's lineup card these days ain't exactly filled with good hitters: Kike, Verdugo, and Renfroe are about it until the big three return to form and/or Schwarber and Arroyo can get out of Yonkers.

 

Maybe this rest for JD will help.

Schwarber should provide a big boost.

Bogey needs a rest, which he should get once Arroyo returns. (Please do not rest Bogey for more Marwin PAs!)

Arroyo's return will also allow Kike to play CF, where is is great on D.

Vaz needs rest, so start Plawecki vs some LHPs. The split differential is massive.

 

On defense, playing Schwarber at 1B won't be an upgrade, but our 1B D has not been good, anyways, so the drop of should be minimal. A Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe OF is a solid plus defense. Devers is back to looking fine on defense, and Arroyo has looked fine at 2B, this year. SS and 1B remain problem areas on D, but the rest of the D should be ok to plus. (I won't get into my views on catcher D.)

[Nick]

Chris Sale To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

 

By Mark Polishuk | March 19, 2020 at 4:04pm CDT

Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery, as per a team announcement. Sale will be out of action for roughly the next 12-15 months, as per the usual recovery timeline, and will miss all of the 2020 season. .700hitter

 

Doesn’t make much sense as to why they waited....jacksonianmarch

 

If he had the surgery last July/August, he might be ready for the 2021 season. Moon

 

Sale slated to start Saturday vs. Orioles per mlb.com

 

Sale's last big league start was on Aug. 13, 2019. Four days later, he was placed on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation. He eventually had Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, which was also his 31st birthday.

 

Let's not forget how inept our medical staff has been over the years.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Here is my stab at what the Sox will do:

 

Promote Sale

Demote Austin Davis to AAA (2 options)

Move Richards to the pen

 

Activate Schwarber

Demote Connor Wong to AAA

 

Activate Arroyo

Demote Arauz to AAA

 

JD returns from IL

Demote Cordero to AAA (2 options remaining)

 

Duran returns from IL

DFA Hansel Robles (out of options)

 

Other possible moves:

DHern (IL)> DFA Richards or Rios (no options) or demote Valdez (NO!)

Brasier (Rehab)> DFA Richards/Rios or Perez or demote Valdez

Andriese (Rehab)> DFA Andriese or Perez

Santana (IL)> DFA Santana

 

[moonslav59]

Chris Sale To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

 

By Mark Polishuk | March 19, 2020 at 4:04pm CDT

Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale will undergo Tommy John surgery, as per a team announcement. Sale will be out of action for roughly the next 12-15 months, as per the usual recovery timeline, and will miss all of the 2020 season. .700hitter

 

Doesn’t make much sense as to why they waited....jacksonianmarch

 

If he had the surgery last July/August, he might be ready for the 2021 season. Moon

 

Sale slated to start Saturday vs. Orioles per mlb.com

 

Sale's last big league start was on Aug. 13, 2019. Four days later, he was placed on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation. He eventually had Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, which was also his 31st birthday.

 

Let's not forget how inept our medical staff has been over the years.

 

Many teams hold off on surgery for what seems to be a ridiculous amount of time.

 

Maybe jacko could explain why, better than I.

[notin]

Many teams hold off on surgery for what seems to be a ridiculous amount of time.

 

Maybe jacko could explain why, better than I.

 

Personally I get holding off surgery. No matter how routine the procedure, it’s still a big deal. And having someone cut up your life blood left arm has to be a bit intimidating..,

[moonslav59]

Personally I get holding off surgery. No matter how routine the procedure, it’s still a big deal. And having someone cut up your life blood left arm has to be a bit intimidating..,

 

I get that, but once you know surgery is needed, why hold off?

 

If they are not sure surgery is needed, I get why you wait, but in Sale's case, I think it was a given.

[jacksonianmarch]

When Sale was first injured, he wanted the rest and rehab approach. With the UCL, rest and rehab rarely works (Tanaka being one). Ultimately, the player has the right to delay or decline surgery.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe this rest for JD will help.

Schwarber should provide a big boost.

Bogey needs a rest, which he should get once Arroyo returns. (Please do not rest Bogey for more Marwin PAs!)

Arroyo's return will also allow Kike to play CF, where is is great on D.

Vaz needs rest, so start Plawecki vs some LHPs. The split differential is massive.

 

On defense, playing Schwarber at 1B won't be an upgrade, but our 1B D has not been good, anyways, so the drop of should be minimal. A Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe OF is a solid plus defense. Devers is back to looking fine on defense, and Arroyo has looked fine at 2B, this year. SS and 1B remain problem areas on D, but the rest of the D should be ok to plus. (I won't get into my views on catcher D.)

 

Today, Sunday, Aug 8, the big three look like themselves again. Against Ryu, who has been a pain in the past. 7 runs so far in the top of the 4th. Helped by a bad tag by the Jays catcher.

[cp176]

Agreed, and Pivetta become our #5 not our #3.

 

if I had two pitchers to choose from (E-Rod and Pivetta) in one meaningful game, I would go with Pivetta all day at this time. Both obviously are needed in the rotation but waiting for E-Rod to become something that I don't think he will become has tired me out. I'm not the fan that I used to be.

[moonslav59]

if I had two pitchers to choose from (E-Rod and Pivetta) in one meaningful game, I would go with Pivetta all day at this time. Both obviously are needed in the rotation but waiting for E-Rod to become something that I don't think he will become has tired me out. I'm not the fan that I used to be.

 

With his heart-related COVID issue, it's hard to know when or if he ever recovers fully.

 

The team had an incredible winning record in his starts before 2020, and it had seemed like he had overcome the 110 pitch, 5 inning routine, as well.

 

It's a close call, but I'd go with ERod, assuming they both are pitching like they have, this year when that scenario presents itself.

Edited August 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

When Sale was first injured, he wanted the rest and rehab approach. With the UCL, rest and rehab rarely works (Tanaka being one). Ultimately, the player has the right to delay or decline surgery.

 

I get that, but it also seems like once they determine surgery is needed, they still wait a month or more.

[moonslav59]

Despite Vaz's nice .801 OPS in 2021, here's an eye-opener:

 

OPS 2020-2021 combined:

.790 Plawecki (190 PAs)

.700 Vaz (554 PAs)

 

Why is Vaz on pace to reach his highest PA and inning numbers?

[a700hitter]

Because he is Cora’s pet.

[Bellhorn04]

Despite Vaz's nice .801 OPS in 2021, here's an eye-opener:

 

OPS 2020-2021 combined:

.790 Plawecki (190 PAs)

.700 Vaz (554 PAs)

 

Why is Vaz on pace to reach his highest PA and inning numbers?

 

a) Plawecki was out of action about a month.

Plawecki is catching his 4th game in August today.

[moonslav59]

a) Plawecki was out of action about a month.

Plawecki is catching his 4th game in August today.

 

A) He got hurt from being so stiff from not playing.

About time.