A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

People often talk about the loss column and what if team A or B wins out. Here's an interesting scenario playing off that concept.

 

Say the Yanks and Rays win every game the rest of the way. That would mean 6 losses for the Rays, and we are just 7 down in the loss column. (Of course, if the Yanks win out, it would mean they beat us 3 times, too.)

[moonslav59]

Robles is on a great run now.

 

So, thanks Bloom?

[moonslav59]

86-65 BOS

84-65 TOR (extra games: TBR Mon & MIN Thur)

83-67 NYY (extra game: TEX mon)

[Bellhorn04]

So, thanks Bloom?

 

I'm down with that.

[Nick]

The whole covid thing allowed us to call up numerous players- some not even on our 40 man roster.

 

While some who sat out due to Covid might not have really gotten much "rest," it seems like several did- like Bogey.

 

We have this Monday and Thursday off, then next Monday, so IMO, we don't need to rest anyone, except pitchers recently used, but even the staff should be allowed better usage due to the 3 days off.

 

 

 

 

I was talking about the Rays.

[Nick]

86-65 BOS

84-65 TOR (extra games: TBR Mon & MIN Thur)

83-67 NYY (extra game: TEX mon)

 

Yanks have 9 games vs Boston, Toronto and Tampa Bay.

 

I think if we take 2 out of 3 vs Yankees, we're in.

[Nick]

Gerrit Cole booed off mound as Yankees get pummeled by Guardians again NY Post....

 

The $324 million pinstriped ace heard boos while exiting the Stadium mound Sunday after getting pelted for a season-high tying seven earned runs, as the Guardians blasted the desperate Yanks for a second consecutive day 11-1 at the Stadium.

[moonslav59]

Yanks have 9 games vs Boston, Toronto and Tampa Bay.

 

I think if we take 2 out of 3 vs Yankees, we're in.

 

I think 1 out of 3, we win and 0 out of 3 might makes it 50-50.

[Larry Cook]

I think 1 out of 3, we win and 0 out of 3 might makes it 50-50.

 

We got to theme the remainder of this season one game at a time. Got to beat the mets on Tuesday.

[notin]

I'm down with that.

 

Maybe his deadline plan wasn’t so horrible after all?

[moonslav59]

We got to theme the remainder of this season one game at a time. Got to beat the mets on Tuesday.

 

Agreed. That's how the team has to look at it, but fans can look ahead without messing up any chances of winning the next game.

 

Nice time to start streaking, though, right?

 

Not long ago, the Yanks looked unbeatable, and it looked like we had no chance at holding them off, then they slumped worse than we ever have.

 

Then, the Jays looked unbeatable. They are still playing well, but they look beatable, now.

 

Here are some looks at recent ups and downs by the contenders:

 

Sox:

2-10

4-1

1-4

5-1

0-3

4-0

2-6

5-0

 

Jays

2-6

9-1

7-12

12-1

3-2

 

Yanks

1-7

9-3

1-3

10-2

2-2

13-0

2-11

4-1

1-3

 

The only patterns I see are that ups are followed by downs and vice versa.

 

BTW, we are now tied with the CWS for the 3rd best AL record! (3 games behind HOU for 2nd best)

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Maybe his deadline plan wasn’t so horrible after all?

 

Knee jerk reactions often prove wrong.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Here is something I would like to know: what is the Red Sox record and team ERA with Hernandez in CF versus with someone else in CF?

 

It just seems like they play better and are a better defensive team with Kike in CF.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Bloom has genuine constraints on what he could do o/a July 31, so I'm fine with Schwarber and whoever. Adding Shaw and then Iglesias also smart.

 

The larger picture is that this team has played better than expected and is now a good bet for the postseason despite being neck and neck with both the Yankees and Jays--to say nothing of the A's.

 

Two comebacks by the Orioles in today's game, with Eovaldi (our presumptive ace) starting, are reminder that neither our rotation nor our bullpen is invulnerable. So my thought is that Bloom's best acquisition was bringing Cora back.

[Maxbialystock]

Here is something I would like to know: what is the Red Sox record and team ERA with Hernandez in CF versus with someone else in CF?

 

It just seems like they play better and are a better defensive team with Kike in CF.

 

moonslav has been saying Kike makes the biggest difference in CF for months. Recently, however, the defense has also improved with Iglesias at 2b, Dalbec (much improved over earlier this year--and a former third baseman) at 1b, and even Devers at 3b and Bogey at SS.

[moonslav59]

Here is something I would like to know: what is the Red Sox record and team ERA with Hernandez in CF versus with someone else in CF?

 

It just seems like they play better and are a better defensive team with Kike in CF.

 

We are 67-52 (.563) in games Kike starts. The team has a .570 winning %.

 

He started 72 games in CF.

 

He started 42 games at 2B.

 

I count the team at 19-19 when Kike plays 2B.

4-2 when he plays both in the same game.

2-3 when he plays SS

 

42-28 in CF.

[moonslav59]

moonslav has been saying Kike makes the biggest difference in CF for months. Recently, however, the defense has also improved with Iglesias at 2b, Dalbec (much improved over earlier this year--and a former third baseman) at 1b, and even Devers at 3b and Bogey at SS.

 

Iggy at 2B has been a big plus. It also forces Kike to CF.

Dalbec has improved immensely in just the past 4-6 weeks.

Bogey missed time with Covid, but seems to be the same steady, below average defender. (Iggy has played some SS, too.)

Devers was a mess, but the last few days has looked better.

 

Am I wrong on any of this?

 

Motter, Lopez, Schwarber, Santana and others playing in the infield have hurt our D more than helped.

[Maxbialystock]

Iggy at 2B has been a big plus. It also forces Kike to CF.

Dalbec has improved immensely in just the past 4-6 weeks.

Bogey missed time with Covid, but seems to be the same steady, below average defender. (Iggy has played some SS, too.)

Devers was a mess, but the last few days has looked better.

 

Am I wrong on any of this?

 

Motter, Lopez, Schwarber, Santana and others playing in the infield have hurt our D more than helped.

 

How can you be wrong if you are agreeing with me?

[moonslav59]

How can you be wrong if you are agreeing with me?

 

We could both be wrong!

 

There's a first time for everything, right?

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS:

 

1.022 Iggy

.933 Shaw

.884 Devers

.878 Bogey

.867 JD M

.863 Schwarber

.819 Renfroe

.804 Dalbec

.793 Verdugo

.782 Kike

.776 Arroyo

.704 Plawecki

.668 Vaz

.643 Arauz

.597 Santana

.578 Duran

.567 Marwin

.549 Chavis

.497 Cordero

 

XBH

71 Devers (616 PAs)

68 JD M (593)

60 Renfroe (531)

57 Bogey (557)

54 Kike (532)

48 Dalbec (428)

45 Verdugo (570)

27 Vaz (468)

18 Arroyo (175)

 

We may end up with 7 players with 50+ XBHs.

 

[moonslav59]

Players with .800+ OPS/ .775+ OPS

 

6/6 HOU

5/7 BOS

4/5 TOR

2/2 TBR

2/2 NYY

1/3 CWS

1/2 SEA

1/1 OAK

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dalbec has improved immensely in just the past 4-6 weeks.

 

How can we not like a guy whose walk-up song is "Soul Kitchen" by the Doors? A song written almost 30 years before he was born... there's a throwback guy focused on getting a pitch to hit in his zone.

[jacksonianmarch]

When the Sox started their swoon post trade deadline, I think everyone thought the other shoe was finally dropping. The Sox are a talented yet tremendously flawed team who have been relying on better than norm performances from a lot of their auxiliary players. That usually doesn’t hold. Major credit to Cora for pushing the right butttons. Most people thought the Sox were a 75-80 win team. Bloom and Cora proved them all wrong. No matter the outcome, the resurgence after the swoon seals my vote for Cora as MOY this year

[moonslav59]

How can we not like a guy whose walk-up song is "Soul Kitchen" by the Doors? A song written almost 30 years before he was born... there's a throwback guy focused on getting a pitch to hit in his zone.

 

Exactly!

 

I’m one of his biggest fans.

[moonslav59]

When the Sox started their swoon post trade deadline, I think everyone thought the other shoe was finally dropping. The Sox are a talented yet tremendously flawed team who have been relying on better than norm performances from a lot of their auxiliary players. That usually doesn’t hold. Major credit to Cora for pushing the right butttons. Most people thought the Sox were a 75-80 win team. Bloom and Cora proved them all wrong. No matter the outcome, the resurgence after the swoon seals my vote for Cora as MOY this year

 

I caught a lot of flack for calling him the best Sox manager, ever. It was not meant to show any disrespect towards Tito, but the guy is a great manager.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I caught a lot of flack for calling him the best Sox manager, ever. It was not meant to show any disrespect towards Tito, but the guy is a great manager.

 

Cora does his best with what he's given for a roster. Robles is good now, and maybe he'll be lightning in a bottle through October, but if he morphs back into Gagne circa '07 in a crucial moment, it won't be Cora's fault.

[moonslav59]

Cora does his best with what he's given for a roster. Robles is good now, and maybe he'll be lightning in a bottle through October, but if he morphs back into Gagne circa '07 in a crucial moment, it won't be Cora's fault.

 

If anyone, that blame or praise would be on Bloom, unless Cora botches who he calls into big games.

 

Cora still has a ways to go to prove he's the best of all time, but he's off to a winning start.

[Maxbialystock]

When the Sox started their swoon post trade deadline, I think everyone thought the other shoe was finally dropping. The Sox are a talented yet tremendously flawed team who have been relying on better than norm performances from a lot of their auxiliary players. That usually doesn’t hold. Major credit to Cora for pushing the right butttons. Most people thought the Sox were a 75-80 win team. Bloom and Cora proved them all wrong. No matter the outcome, the resurgence after the swoon seals my vote for Cora as MOY this year

 

Agree. Cora has made a huge difference.

 

Now, with 11 games to go, the Sox have these strengths (in addition to Cora): remaining schedule with extra days off and mostly weak (except for the NYY) opponents; hitting (3d best OPS in MLB); bullpen (thanks to Cora and his pitching coach); and an improved defense thanks to Kike back in CF, Iglesias at 2b, and an improved Dalbec at 1b.

 

The weaknesses are the rotation and the fact that the bullpen, which has done yeoman service all season long, is not rock solid. That means that Cora gets to make a lot of big decisions on when to pull his starter, when to insert a long reliever like Houck, Whitlock (now day to day), or Richards, who (and when) to send in to stop the bleeding, and who to close.

 

As good as Eovaldi has been this season, his latest start--5 innings, 3 ER's vs. the lowly Orioles--underscores the importance of the bullpen, the hitting, and the defense. #2 starter Sale is still a superb craftsman but does not yet have the great stuff or velocity he had in 2018. #3 starter in my opinion is ERod because he has been better in Aug-Sep than Pivetta.

 

Thus, while I now think the Sox are a good bet for the postseason and could even get beyond the wild card game, I think weak pitching overall will make winning an ALDS series, probably vs. the Rays, problematical.

[mvp 78]

https://community.fangraphs.com/solving-adam-ottavino/

 

When Ottavino’s sliders miss glove-side to lefties, they hang up, right in the middle of a lefty’s bat path. Ottavino’s other big miss is a yanked slider, which has become the root cause of his walk rate. It is a different story for righties; when Ottavino misses the initial glove-side target, the slider is still far enough away from a righty batter (in most cases) in which they would either swing right over it, make weak contact to the right side, or take it for a ball. Despite having 8.1 inches above average of horizontal break, Ottavino has had a -6 run value from his slider in 2021.

 

If you look at Ottavino’s best years from an ERA standpoint, you notice that his two seasons with the Yankees in 2018 and 2019 were elite. A critical difference between those campaigns and the current one is his pitch repertoire. Although most of it has stayed the same, he has almost stopped throwing his cutter entirely. In 2018 and 2019, he threw his cutter 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively. In 2021 he has thrown it just 1.9% of the time. This is notable because his cutter is essentially a shorter, tighter version of his slider that would seemingly be easier to control. On top of that, in 2018 and 2019, his cutter produced a whiff percentage of almost 50% and nearly 40%, respectively.

 

Also, in 2018 his cutter had 6.1 horizontal inches of break, or 3.6 inches above average (143% break above average). It wasn’t nearly as good in 2019 but was still respectable at 3.2 inches of horizontal break, 1.2 inches above average. Ottavino has thrown his cutter 20 times in 2021 and it has had a similar break to 2019.

 

If Ottavino were to increase his cutter usage, he could have a complementary put-away pitch that could be an excellent 1-2 punch when combined with a slider that fools batters. Given that they move in the same direction, hitters would have to make an early decision whether to swing based on whether they think the ball will stay in the zone or not.

[iortiz]

86-65 BOS

84-65 TOR (extra games: TBR Mon & MIN Thur)

83-67 NYY (extra game: TEX mon)

 

Who are likely going to pitch this week against the Mets and NYY?