A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

Austin Hays hits his second homer with man on. Orioles 3, Yankees 2, bottom of 8th. Can they do it?

We need for the Yankees to drop one against the worst team in baseball.

 

I just posted the same thing on the game thread!

[moonslav59]

Another lucky inning by the Yanks.

 

3-2 Yanks

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boston's season all comes down to Baltimore. The Red Sox have 14 games left, six with the Orioles. The Sox have to go 4-2 vs. the O's, and just break even in the remaining eight vs. the Mets, Yanks and Nats... that will give them 91 wins -- which just might be enough to win the second Wild Card berth.

 

Ninety-One Ws could be a best-case scenario for New York, who'd have to go 9-7 the rest of the way. The Yankees play their last nine vs. the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even if NY has a winning record in that final grind, don't be surprised to see weary pinstripes crushed in a one-and-done -- probably by Toronto, which could win 95 and have domefield advantage. Of course, the Sox-Yanks may have to play one more if they tie, to see who'll qualify for the WC game.

 

How will Kevin Cash manage those last three in the Bronx: rest regulars or go all out to win? Who would Tampa rather face in a best-of-five ALDS? Maybe a better question is: who do the Rays think has a better chance to beat the Jays on the road -- Boston or New York?

[notin]

Boston's season all comes down to Baltimore. The Red Sox have 14 games left, six with the Orioles. The Sox have to go 4-2 vs. the O's, and just break even in the remaining eight vs. the Mets, Yanks and Nats... that will give them 91 wins -- which just might be enough to win the second Wild Card berth.

 

Ninety-One Ws could be a best-case scenario for New York, who'd have to go 9-7 the rest of the way. The Yankees play their last nine vs. the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even if NY has a winning record in that final grind, don't be surprised to see weary pinstripes crushed in a one-and-done -- probably by Toronto, which could win 95 and have domefield advantage. Of course, the Sox-Yanks may have to play one more if they tie, to see who'll qualify for the WC game.

 

How will Kevin Cash manage those last three in the Bronx: rest regulars or go all out to win? Who would Tampa rather face in a best-of-five ALDS? Maybe a better question is: who do the Rays think has a better chance to beat the Jays on the road -- Boston or New York?

 

 

91 wins doesn’t matter if the Yankees and Jays both have 92.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

91 wins doesn’t matter if the Yankees and Jays both have 92.

 

Thanks for the math lesson. I'll make sure I bold-face just might be enough, could be, and may have to next time.

[moonslav59]

We need to take care of business vs the weaker teams but also vs NYY.

 

The good thing is, the Yanks and TOR play each other, so both can't go undefeated.

 

The remaining schedule:

 

BOS

3 v BAL

2 v NYM

3 v NYY

3 @ BAL

3 @ WSH

 

NYY

1 @ BAL

3 v CLE

3 v TEX

3 @ BOS

3 @ TOR

3 v TBR (who might be resting their stars)

 

TOR

3 v MIN

3 @ TBR

4 @ MIN

3 v NYY

3 v BAL

 

[mvp 78]

We need to take care of business vs the weaker teams but also vs NYY.

 

The good thing is, the Yanks and TOR play each other, so both can't go undefeated.

 

The remaining schedule:

 

BOS

3 v BAL

2 v NYM

3 v NYY

3 @ BAL

3 @ WSH

 

 

That's 10-4 there.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We need to take care of business vs the weaker teams but also vs NYY.

 

The good thing is, the Yanks and TOR play each other, so both can't go undefeated.

 

The remaining schedule:

 

BOS

3 v BAL

2 v NYM

3 v NYY

3 @ BAL

3 @ WSH

 

NYY

1 @ BAL

3 v CLE

3 v TEX

3 @ BOS

3 @ TOR

3 v TBR (who might be resting their stars)

 

TOR

3 v MIN

3 @ TBR

4 @ MIN

3 v NYY

3 v BAL

 

 

Alright: who has predictions for final victory totals for this stretch run? I got Boston at 8-6 and New York 9-7 for 91 wins each, and the Jays at 12-4 for 94.

 

I want the Sox to win more, and expect them to win more, but with the erratic way they've been playing -- including pulling out some dramatic Ws -- maybe an 8-6 finish is a realistic goal that could qualify them to play at least one more game...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's 10-4 there.

 

For that, we need Sale to be Stretched-Out Sale before his second Covid quarantine.

[notin]

Thanks for the math lesson. I'll make sure I bold-face just might be enough, could be, and may have to next time.

 

Well our win total is irrelevant.

 

Toronto has 16 games left and 10 of them are against the Twins and Orioles. That’s a huge break for them…

[mvp 78]

Alright: who has predictions for final victory totals for this stretch run? I got Boston at 8-6 and New York 9-7 for 91 wins each, and the Jays at 12-4 for 94.

 

I want the Sox to win more, and expect them to win more, but with the erratic way they've been playing -- including pulling out some dramatic Ws -- maybe an 8-6 finish is a realistic goal that could qualify them to play at least one more game...

 

Sox 10-4 (93)

Yanks 8-8 (90)

Jays 11-5 (93)

[notin]

Sox 10-4 (93)

Yanks 8-8 (90)

Jays 11-5 (93)

 

And then we also host the WC game…

[moonslav59]

Well our win total is irrelevant.

 

Toronto has 16 games left and 10 of them are against the Twins and Orioles. That’s a huge break for them…

 

The Sox have less "hard games" though:

 

9 NYY

6 TOR

3 BOS (5, if you count the 2 games vs the Mets as hard)

[moonslav59]

Alright: who has predictions for final victory totals for this stretch run? I got Boston at 8-6 and New York 9-7 for 91 wins each, and the Jays at 12-4 for 94.

 

I want the Sox to win more, and expect them to win more, but with the erratic way they've been playing -- including pulling out some dramatic Ws -- maybe an 8-6 finish is a realistic goal that could qualify them to play at least one more game...

 

I'm going:

BOS 9-5

TOR 9-7

NYY 9-7

[mvp 78]

And then we also host the WC game…

 

Ray vs Sale. Whitlock goes 3 IP.

[Maxbialystock]

Ray vs Sale. Whitlock goes 3 IP.

 

Right now I honestly think Eovaldi is our ace. In his last 7 starts--against Seattle, Tampa twice, Cleveland twice, Texas, and the Yankees--he has gone 42.2 innings while giving up 9 earned runs for an ERA of 1.92.

 

The one fly in the ointment is that in his most recent outing vs. the Jays and at Toronto, Aug 6, Eovaldi pitched 4.2 innings while giving up 7 runs. 2 months earlier vs. the Jays at Fenway, he pitched shut out ball for 6.2 innings.

[moonslav59]

Sox Days Off (and who TOR & NYY play to make up the 2 games they both have in hand):

 

9/16 NYY @ BAL

9/20 NYY v TEX, TOR @ TBR

9/23 TOR @ MIN

9/27 (all off)

[dgalehouse]

Boston's season all comes down to Baltimore. The Red Sox have 14 games left, six with the Orioles. The Sox have to go 4-2 vs. the O's, and just break even in the remaining eight vs. the Mets, Yanks and Nats... that will give them 91 wins -- which just might be enough to win the second Wild Card berth.

 

Ninety-One Ws could be a best-case scenario for New York, who'd have to go 9-7 the rest of the way. The Yankees play their last nine vs. the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even if NY has a winning record in that final grind, don't be surprised to see weary pinstripes crushed in a one-and-done -- probably by Toronto, which could win 95 and have domefield advantage. Of course, the Sox-Yanks may have to play one more if they tie, to see who'll qualify for the WC game.

 

How will Kevin Cash manage those last three in the Bronx: rest regulars or go all out to win? Who would Tampa rather face in a best-of-five ALDS? Maybe a better question is: who do the Rays think has a better chance to beat the Jays on the road -- Boston or New York?

 

Going 4-2 against the Orioles would be a disappointment . I expect to win all six games. The schedule clearly favors the Sox over the Jays and Yankees. The wild card , and even home field , is there for the taking.

[moonslav59]

Here is one way we might use our starters:

 

Off

BAL Seabold (+1 day rest)

BAL Pivetta (+1)

BAL ERod (+1)

Off

NYM Eovaldi (+2)

NYM Sale (back from COVID)

Off

NYY Houck (+4)

NYY Pivetta (+1)

NYY Eovaldi

Off

@BAL ERod (+4)

@BAL Sale (+2)

@BAL Houck (+1)

@WSH Pivetta (+1)

@WSH Eovaldi (+1)

@WSH ERod

 

WC Sale (+1)

 

We could also begin using Houck in the pen or as a "piggyback) RP'er and start him just once more:

 

Off

BAL Seabold (+1 day rest)

BAL Pivetta (+1)

BAL ERod (+1)

Off

NYM Eovaldi (+2)

NYM Sale (back from COVID) Houck Piggyback

Off

NYY Pivetta

NYY ERod (+1)

NYY Eovaldi

Off

@BAL Houck

@BAL Sale (+2)

@BAL Pivetta (+1)

@WSH ERod (+1)

@WSH Eovaldi (+1)

@WSH Sale if needed or Houck/Seabold

 

WC Sale (+1)

 

[Maxbialystock]

Going 4-2 against the Orioles would be a disappointment . I expect to win all six games. The schedule clearly favors the Sox over the Jays and Yankees. The wild card , and even home field , is there for the taking.

 

Statistically, 4-2 is the right expectation. The Sox have won 56% of their games this year and the Orioles 32%. Head to head, the Sox have won 9 and lost 4 vs. the Orioles.

[mvp 78]

Statistically, 4-2 is the right expectation. The Sox have won 56% of their games this year and the Orioles 32%. Head to head, the Sox have won 9 and lost 4 vs. the Orioles.

 

Also, the Orioles might be a bad team, but even the worst of the worst still win 1/3 or their games.

[Maxbialystock]

That’s the problem.

 

Now some of that is attributable to playing in Fenway, where balls can scrape the Monster 35 feet up and no amount of defense was going to prevent a hit, but technically that’s still a ball in play.

 

But still. A BABIP if .324 tells us nearly 1 of every 3 batted balls that stays in the park falls for a hit. And our pitching staff isn’t letting up 1 out of 3 batted balls off the Monster…

 

Problem, shmoblem. No one, including me, is arguing the defense is good or even adequate this year. It might even be the worst Sox defense in 120 years.

 

What your whining continues to ignore is that defense is not, repeat not, the sum of this team--not this year and not historically.

 

Please take a quick look at the Sox won-lost record and you will be astounded to discover they have a winning record and in fact are very much in the hunt for the wild card game and exceeding our expectations from way back in April.

 

Why is this so? Well, one reason is that those low-down, rotten, terrible fielders also come to bat now and then, and this team actually hits the ball pretty well and even scores some runs. Moreover, despite the porous defense that doesn't catch much or throw very well, the Sox rotation and bullpen now and then keep opposing teams from scoring as many runs in a given game as the Sox score.

 

During the John Henry era, the most successful in Sox history, the FO has gone out of its way to acquire hitters over fielders.

[Bellhorn04]

Statistically, 4-2 is the right expectation. The Sox have won 56% of their games this year and the Orioles 32%. Head to head, the Sox have won 9 and lost 4 vs. the Orioles.

 

Yep.

 

Jays are 11-5

Yankees are 11-7

 

4-2 is par.

[Maxbialystock]

Lest people think I dislike good defense, I complained loud and long when the Sox traded away Iglesias--the very same guy who yesterday made that brilliant backhand flip to start a DP, which no one else on this team is/was capable of doing--was traded away in 2013 in order to get Jake Peavy.

 

And, like everyone else on talksox, I went nuts last week (Sep 8) when Renfroe beat the Rays with that incredible throw to prevent a guaranteed triple in the top of the 9th vs. the Rays. This was after he hit the gamewinning 2 run dinger in the bottom of the 8th and earlier nailed a Rays runner trying to stretch a single into a double.

[mvp 78]

Lest people think I dislike good defense, I complained loud and long when the Sox traded away Iglesias--the very same guy who yesterday made that brilliant backhand flip to start a DP, which no one else on this team is/was capable of doing--was traded away in 2013 in order to get Jake Peavy.

 

And, like everyone else on talksox, I went nuts last week (Sep 8) when Renfroe beat the Rays with that incredible throw to prevent a guaranteed triple in the top of the 9th vs. the Rays. This was after he hit the gamewinning 2 run dinger in the bottom of the 8th and earlier nailed a Rays runner trying to stretch a single into a double.

 

So it's ok to go nuts for Renfroe throwing a runner out, but we must keep our mouths shut when he drops a catchable ball? That's the argument?

[mvp 78]

Problem, shmoblem. No one, including me, is arguing the defense is good or even adequate this year. It might even be the worst Sox defense in 120 years.

 

What your whining continues to ignore is that defense is not, repeat not, the sum of this team--not this year and not historically.

 

Please take a quick look at the Sox won-lost record and you will be astounded to discover they have a winning record and in fact are very much in the hunt for the wild card game and exceeding our expectations from way back in April.

 

Why is this so? Well, one reason is that those low-down, rotten, terrible fielders also come to bat now and then, and this team actually hits the ball pretty well and even scores some runs. Moreover, despite the porous defense that doesn't catch much or throw very well, the Sox rotation and bullpen now and then keep opposing teams from scoring as many runs in a given game as the Sox score.

 

During the John Henry era, the most successful in Sox history, the FO has gone out of its way to acquire hitters over fielders.

 

The 2011 Red Sox won 90 games. They didn't need to give that rotation any help down the stretch!!!!!!

[notin]

Problem, shmoblem. No one, including me, is arguing the defense is good or even adequate this year. It might even be the worst Sox defense in 120 years.

 

What your whining continues to ignore is that defense is not, repeat not, the sum of this team--not this year and not historically.

 

Please take a quick look at the Sox won-lost record and you will be astounded to discover they have a winning record and in fact are very much in the hunt for the wild card game and exceeding our expectations from way back in April.

 

Why is this so? Well, one reason is that those low-down, rotten, terrible fielders also come to bat now and then, and this team actually hits the ball pretty well and even scores some runs. Moreover, despite the porous defense that doesn't catch much or throw very well, the Sox rotation and bullpen now and then keep opposing teams from scoring as many runs in a given game as the Sox score.

 

During the John Henry era, the most successful in Sox history, the FO has gone out of its way to acquire hitters over fielders.

 

Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz might not agree…

[Bellhorn04]

Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz might not agree…

 

2 rentals. We can add Ian Kinsler to make it 3.

 

I don't necessarily agree with Max's theory, but it's an interesting one.

[mvp 78]

Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz might not agree…

 

They rolled out Alex Gonzalez in 2006 and he was met with a collective shrug from the Nation (this was the year after "rentawreck"). There's no pleasing some people.

[Bellhorn04]

They rolled out Alex Gonzalez in 2006 and he was met with a collective shrug from the Nation (this was the year after "rentawreck"). There's no pleasing some people.

 

I'd say Red Sox fans have a lot more patience with good hitters/bad fielders than with good fielders/bad hitters. Maybe it's the same with all fans.