A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Elktonnick]

If anyone, that blame or praise would be on Bloom, unless Cora botches who he calls into big games.

 

Cora still has a ways to go to prove he's the best of all time, but he's off to a winning start.

 

One thing is for certain Cora is a heck of a lot better than the guy they had last year.

[mvp 78]

One thing is for certain Cora is a heck of a lot better than the guy they had last year.

 

Roenicke should have just told ERod to get better and figured out how to make Mazza and Weber into MLB pitchers!

[moonslav59]

Who are likely going to pitch this week against the Mets and NYY?

 

ERod TUE vs Mets and maybe Seabold WED (could be Sale).

 

(THU off)

 

vs NYY

Fri -Sale (+2 days rest)

Sat -Pivetta (+2 days rest)

Sun -Eovaldi (+2 days rest)

 

If we pitch Sale on normal rest, Wednesday:

 

NYM ERod

NYM Sale

off

NYY Pivetta (+1)

NYY Eovaldi (+1)

NYY ERod

off

6 game road trip

[mvp 78]

ERod TUE vs Mets and maybe Seabold WED (could be Sale).

 

(THU off)

 

vs NYY

Fri -Sale (+2 days rest)

Sat -Pivetta (+2 days rest)

Sun -Eovaldi (+2 days rest)

 

If we pitch Sale on normal rest, Wednesday:

 

NYM ERod

NYM Sale

off

NYY Pivetta (+1)

NYY Eovaldi (+1)

NYY ERod

off

6 game road trip

 

They are going to try to lean heavily on Sale and Eovaldi down the stretch rather than give them extra games off. That's what I've heard anyway.

[jacksonianmarch]

https://community.fangraphs.com/solving-adam-ottavino/

 

When Ottavino’s sliders miss glove-side to lefties, they hang up, right in the middle of a lefty’s bat path. Ottavino’s other big miss is a yanked slider, which has become the root cause of his walk rate. It is a different story for righties; when Ottavino misses the initial glove-side target, the slider is still far enough away from a righty batter (in most cases) in which they would either swing right over it, make weak contact to the right side, or take it for a ball. Despite having 8.1 inches above average of horizontal break, Ottavino has had a -6 run value from his slider in 2021.

 

If you look at Ottavino’s best years from an ERA standpoint, you notice that his two seasons with the Yankees in 2018 and 2019 were elite. A critical difference between those campaigns and the current one is his pitch repertoire. Although most of it has stayed the same, he has almost stopped throwing his cutter entirely. In 2018 and 2019, he threw his cutter 9.8% and 13.8%, respectively. In 2021 he has thrown it just 1.9% of the time. This is notable because his cutter is essentially a shorter, tighter version of his slider that would seemingly be easier to control. On top of that, in 2018 and 2019, his cutter produced a whiff percentage of almost 50% and nearly 40%, respectively.

 

Also, in 2018 his cutter had 6.1 horizontal inches of break, or 3.6 inches above average (143% break above average). It wasn’t nearly as good in 2019 but was still respectable at 3.2 inches of horizontal break, 1.2 inches above average. Ottavino has thrown his cutter 20 times in 2021 and it has had a similar break to 2019.

 

If Ottavino were to increase his cutter usage, he could have a complementary put-away pitch that could be an excellent 1-2 punch when combined with a slider that fools batters. Given that they move in the same direction, hitters would have to make an early decision whether to swing based on whether they think the ball will stay in the zone or not.

 

He stopped throwing the cutter in 2020 because it was leaking dead center and he got shellacked.

[jacksonianmarch]

ERod TUE vs Mets and maybe Seabold WED (could be Sale).

 

(THU off)

 

vs NYY

Fri -Sale (+2 days rest)

Sat -Pivetta (+2 days rest)

Sun -Eovaldi (+2 days rest)

 

If we pitch Sale on normal rest, Wednesday:

 

NYM ERod

NYM Sale

off

NYY Pivetta (+1)

NYY Eovaldi (+1)

NYY ERod

off

6 game road trip

 

Sale’s stuff isn’t crisp yet. You don’t throw him vs a RH heavy Yankees lineup. I’d also look to Houck for the final Yankee game over ERod. I’d go all RH power vs the Yanks

[Bellhorn04]

Sale’s stuff isn’t crisp yet. You don’t throw him vs a RH heavy Yankees lineup. I’d also look to Houck for the final Yankee game over ERod. I’d go all RH power vs the Yanks

 

E-Rod has pitched well against the Yankees this year, and in his career.

[mvp 78]

Sale’s stuff isn’t crisp yet. You don’t throw him vs a RH heavy Yankees lineup. I’d also look to Houck for the final Yankee game over ERod. I’d go all RH power vs the Yanks

 

Sale has a 120 OPS against LHB this year.

[iortiz]

ERod TUE vs Mets and maybe Seabold WED (could be Sale).

 

(THU off)

 

vs NYY

Fri -Sale (+2 days rest)

Sat -Pivetta (+2 days rest)

Sun -Eovaldi (+2 days rest)

 

If we pitch Sale on normal rest, Wednesday:

 

NYM ERod

NYM Sale

off

NYY Pivetta (+1)

NYY Eovaldi (+1)

NYY ERod

off

6 game road trip

 

Thanks for the info Moon. Going to be interesting how they manage the rotation.

[notin]

Sale’s stuff isn’t crisp yet. You don’t throw him vs a RH heavy Yankees lineup. I’d also look to Houck for the final Yankee game over ERod. I’d go all RH power vs the Yanks

 

The Yankees couldn’t hit on a soft 16 right now…

[moonslav59]

The Mets are no push-overs, but we should be able to beat them.

 

Any series is hard to sweep, but 2 games are easier than 3.

 

One at a time, boys!

[iortiz]

I like our chances on winning all the series moving forward.

 

2 W vs Mets

2/3 vs NYY

2/3 vs WSH

3/3 vs Os.

 

It's a 9-2 record there, meaning ending the season at 95 Ws, and with all the momentum entering to the POs.

[Nick]

Standings Update

 

65 losses Sox (3 vs Yanks)

66 losses Jays (2 vs Rays, 3 vs Yanks)

--------------------------------------------------------

67 losses Yanks (3 vs Sox, 3 vs Rays, 3 vs Jays)

68 losses A's (5 vs Mariners)

69 losses Mariners

 

Yanks got tough road....

Edited September 21, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Taking 2 from the Mets, while our contenders bash each other up really would position us nicely going into the series of the season v the Yanks.

[moonslav59]

We passed the CWS to become the 3rd best team, by record, in the AL, and 3 down from HOU.

[moonslav59]

93-58 TBR

89-61 HOU

86-65 BOS WC1

85-65 CWS

 

84-66 TOR WC2 (-1.5 WC1)

 

84-67 NYY -0.5 WC2

82-68 OAK -2.0

81-69 SEA -3.0

 

SEA 0r OAK needs to basically sweep the other to have a chance.

 

The Yanks have a very tough last 9 games.

 

TOR has a tougher schedule than BOS.

 

One game at a time, Boys. Beat the Mets, tonight.

[mvp 78]

Standings Update

 

65 losses Sox (3 vs Yanks)

66 losses Jays (2 vs Rays, 3 vs Yanks)

--------------------------------------------------------

67 losses Yanks (3 vs Sox, 3 vs Rays, 3 vs Jays)

68 losses A's (5 vs Mariners)

69 losses Mariners

 

Yanks got tough road....

 

If the Sox can sweep the Yanks, it should really end their season.

[moonslav59]

fWAR

11. Bogey 5.1

18. Devers 4.5

31. Moncada 4.0

35. Betts 3.9

48. Kike 3.5

68. JD 2.6

74. Verdugo 2.5

97. Renfroe 1.8

98. Beni 1.8

120. Iggy 0.9

 

3. Eovaldi 5.5

20. Montas 3.8

31. ERod 3.2

39. Miley 2.9

64. Kimbrel 2.2

77. Houck 1.9

83. Pivetta 1.7

92. R Hill 1.6

101. Whitlock 1.5

110. Barnes 1.4

122. Kopech 1.3

140. Richards 1.1

143. Ottavino 1.1

165. Taylor 1.0

182. Price 0.8

218. Perez 0.6

226. Kelly 0.6

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

fWAR

11. Bogey 5.1

18. Devers 4.5

31. Moncada 4.0

35. Betts 3.9

48. Kike 3.5

68. JD 2.6

74. Verdugo 2.5

97. Renfroe 1.8

98. Beni 1.8

120. Iggy 0.9

 

3. Eovaldi 5.5

20. Montas 3.8

31. ERod 3.2

39. Miley 2.9

64. Kimbrel 2.2

77. Houck 1.9

83. Pivetta 1.7

92. R Hill 1.6

101. Whitlock 1.5

110. Barnes 1.4

122. Kopech 1.3

140. Richards 1.1

143. Ottavino 1.1

165. Taylor 1.0

182. Price 0.8

218. Perez 0.6

226. Kelly 0.6

 

Great stats aligned. If the Red Sox can win the WC game and get into a playoff series, Cora's weapon of choice won't be Whitlock, but Houck.

 

I'd still rather have Betts than Moncada (bWAR: Mookie 4.6, Yoan 4.0), but I'll take Verdugo over Benintendi (bWAR: Dugie 2.6, Beni 2.7).

 

On the mound, Miley and Kimbrel have dropped off the second half. The bronze plaque that runs the White Sox can win it all if someone can somehow convince him to use Kopech like Andrew Miller of the mid-teens.

[moonslav59]

Great stats aligned. If the Red Sox can win the WC game and get into a playoff series, Cora's weapon of choice won't be Whitlock, but Houck.

 

I'd still rather have Betts than Moncada (bWAR: Mookie 4.6, Yoan 4.0), but I'll take Verdugo over Benintendi (bWAR: Dugie 2.6, Beni 2.7).

 

On the mound, Miley and Kimbrel have dropped off the second half. The bronze plaque that runs the White Sox can win it all if someone can somehow convince him to use Kopech like Andrew Miller of the mid-teens.

 

In theory, Beni > Arroyo, but had we played Kike at 2B FT, our OF D would have been much worse.

 

I don't think we really missed Beni, but one can pull up Cordero, Santana and Marwin's numbers and argue otherwise.

 

The money saved was also part of the trade, and we did get 5 guys for him. The jury is still out on them.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In theory, Beni > Arroyo, but had we played Kike at 2B FT, our OF D would have been much worse.

 

I don't think we really missed Beni, but one can pull up Cordero, Santana and Marwin's numbers and argue otherwise.

 

The money saved was also part of the trade, and we did get 5 guys for him. The jury is still out on them.

 

 

Marwin blasted a grand salami for Houston last night. Of course he already has more homers (3) in seven games for the Astros than he did in 77 games in Boston. He must hate baked beans.

[moonslav59]

Marwin blasted a grand salami for Houston last night. Of course he already has more homers (3) in seven games for the Astros than he did in 77 games in Boston. He must hate baked beans.

 

Trash cans.

[Maxbialystock]

Marwin blasted a grand salami for Houston last night. Of course he already has more homers (3) in seven games for the Astros than he did in 77 games in Boston. He must hate baked beans.

 

Interesting. Looks to me--as an ignorant fan--as though the Astros saw a flaw in Marwin's swing, signed him, and fixed it.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting. Looks to me--as an ignorant fan--as though the Astros saw a flaw in Marwin's swing, signed him, and fixed it.

 

Could be, but it's a rather small sample.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. Looks to me--as an ignorant fan--as though the Astros saw a flaw in Marwin's swing, signed him, and fixed it.

 

Maybe, but it's a 22 PA sample size that was at .676 before last night.

 

He had these stretches with the Sox:

 

.696 in 27 PAs in April.

1.020 in 22 PAs later in April.

.878 in 25 PAs in May.

1.108 in 16 PAs in June

.765 in 36 PAs at the end of June into July.

Edited September 21, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Marwin and Santana can become MVP players for another team. I still don't want them. I've had enough of two. Pissed me off to no end whenever I saw their names in the lineup. Edited September 21, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Marwin and Santana can become MVP players for another team. I still don't want them. I've had enough of two. Pissed me off to no end whenever I saw their names in the lineup.

 

Santana is giving us an MVP stretch that is better than Marwin's 22 PAs with HOU.

 

Last 23 PAs:

.948 OPS

1 2B

2 HRs

4 RBI

3 BB

[mvp 78]

Santana is giving us an MVP stretch that is better than Marwin's 22 PAs with HOU.

 

Last 23 PAs:

.948 OPS

1 2B

2 HRs

4 RBI

3 BB

 

Two of Santana's games are from July. Quite the stretch to call that a stretch, stretch.

[mvp 78]

Santana SEPT: 3 H, 974 OPS, 164 WRC+

Marwin SEPT: 4 H, 846 OPS, 123 WRC+

 

Marwin has been unlucky with his BABIP though going 077.

[moonslav59]

Two of Santana's games are from July. Quite the stretch to call that a stretch, stretch.

 

Well, he's still .974 in Sept (14 PAs).

 

Also, Marwin only has 47 PAs since July 11th.