A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

100+ IP

3.52 Eovaldi

4.55 Pivetta

4.60 Richards

4.79 Perez

5.00 ERod

 

30-99 IP

1.89 Whitlock

2.40 Sale

3.00 Sawamura

3.08 DHern

3.47 Taylor

3.68 Ottavino

3.73 Barnes

3.75 Houck

5.85 Valdez (was at 3.41 on July 26 and 3.92 on Aug 5th, then had 2 games with 12 ERs allowed)

[Bellhorn04]

Time to give credit to Bloom for staying on the job in making the pickups of old friends Shaw and Iglesias, whose contributions have been almost comically better than expected.

[Maxbialystock]

The major league strike zone defined as:

 

The official strike zone is the area over home plate from the midpoint between the batters shoulders and the top of the uniform pants - when the batter is in his stance and prepared to swing at a pitched ball - and a point just below the kneecap.

 

That top part sounds like a real PITA for an ump to figure out. Bottom of shoulder or armpits or something sounds a lot more determinate.

 

We have to remember that the rectangle only depicts the front edge of the plate. The real zone is a pentagonal prism between the above upper and lower limits. I certainly can see why some of the breaking balls just above the top of the zone could drop over the plate in the zone and look high per the rectangle. I suppose a big breaking slider could so it as well.

 

Well said--which gets back to my point that what we see on the TV screen is completely arbitrary and why I am fine with what the ump, imperfect though he may be, calls.

 

And, oh, by the way, if I were behind home plate for 3-4 hours, I would slant may calls for those pitchers who don't take forever to throw the dadgum ball. I would also give more calls to a pitcher who is both quick--doesn't waste time between pitches--and consistently near or in the strike zone.

 

The same would apply to hitters who try to slow things down. Indeed, I think home plate umpires should be empowered to call strikes on hitters who are slow to the plate, keep stepping out of the box to collect their thoughts, etc.

[Bellhorn04]

Well said--which gets back to my point that what we see on the TV screen is completely arbitrary and why I am fine with what the ump, imperfect though he may be, calls.

 

And, oh, by the way, if I were behind home plate for 3-4 hours, I would slant may calls for those pitchers who don't take forever to throw the dadgum ball. I would also give more calls to a pitcher who is both quick--doesn't waste time between pitches--and consistently near or in the strike zone.

 

The same would apply to hitters who try to slow things down. Indeed, I think home plate umpires should be empowered to call strikes on hitters who are slow to the plate, keep stepping out of the box to collect their thoughts, etc.

 

You're giving umps an awful lot of power there.

[moonslav59]

To me, the super imposed rectangle is not accurate, but it exposes unacceptable inconsistent calls.

[notin]

Well said--which gets back to my point that what we see on the TV screen is completely arbitrary and why I am fine with what the ump, imperfect though he may be, calls.

 

And, oh, by the way, if I were behind home plate for 3-4 hours, I would slant may calls for those pitchers who don't take forever to throw the dadgum ball. I would also give more calls to a pitcher who is both quick--doesn't waste time between pitches--and consistently near or in the strike zone.

 

The same would apply to hitters who try to slow things down. Indeed, I think home plate umpires should be empowered to call strikes on hitters who are slow to the plate, keep stepping out of the box to collect their thoughts, etc.

 

So… you’d be a s***** ump? I’ve seen bad umps and made my share of Angel Hernandez jokes, but at least he sucks for both teams.

 

OTOH at least you admit you’d be biased…

[Bellhorn04]

So… you’d be a s***** ump? I’ve seen bad umps and made my share of Angel Hernandez jokes, but at least he sucks for both teams.

 

OTOH at least you admit you’d be biased…

 

Max is a would-be vigilante ump.

[Nick]

Time to give credit to Bloom for staying on the job in making the pickups of old friends Shaw and Iglesias, whose contributions have been almost comically better than expected.

 

He's looked under every rock. He doesn't give up.

[moonslav59]

He's looked under every rock. He doesn't give up.

 

Now, even Robles and Davis don't look as bad as we originally thought.

 

Santana even did better.

[Nick]

Given the fact that Cora can trust that Iglesias will put up good at bats most of the time right now and provide strong defense up the middle, he doesn’t have to play around with the idea of putting Kiké Hernández at second base to shore up that spot, leaving Alex Verdugo to play center. OverTheMonster

 

I rather see him out there than Marwin and Santana. Amazing that Santana is still around.

Edited September 18, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

He's looked under every rock. He doesn't give up.

 

Would not bother me one bit if Shaw and Iglesias both stuck around for another season in some capacity…

[notin]

Given the fact that Cora can trust that Iglesias will put up good at bats most of the time right now and provide strong defense up the middle, he doesn’t have to play around with the idea of putting Kiké Hernández at second base to shore up that spot, leaving Alex Verdugo to play center. OverTheMonster

 

I rather see him out there than Marwin and Santana. Amazing that Santana is still around.

 

 

It would bother me if Santana stuck around for another season in any capacity above maybe manning the phones for ticket sales…

[moonslav59]

Would not bother me one bit if Shaw and Iglesias both stuck around for another season in some capacity…

 

We do need a nice infield utility guy that can hit better than Marwin, but I'm not sure about Shaw.

[moonslav59]

To all those who thought we had to go 10-4 or 9-5 in our last 14, because the Yanks and Jays were supposed to win as much or more, maybe they weren't as good as we thought.

 

Maybe trends don't always continue.

 

(Actually, no "maybe" about it.)

[Larry Cook]

Now, even Robles and Davis don't look as bad as we originally thought.

 

Santana even did better.

 

No, Robles is worse than even the most pessimistic person ever would have thought!

[moonslav59]

No, Robles is worse than even the most pessimistic person ever would have thought!

 

I never said he was any good- just better than before.

 

7.94 (1.012 OPS) first 21 games with us.

 

0.00 (.367 OPS) last 6 games.

 

Also, Austin Davis:

5.44 before BOS

5.11 (.753 OPS) first 12 games

0.00 (.558) last 5 games

 

Edited September 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

I am hopeful that hang’em Chaim gets us a deeper bullpen next season and few depth guts stashed at triple a.

[Nick]

I love the chorus of boos at Yankee Stadium after Guardians go up 8-0 on a 3 run homer............where's Jacksonianmarch?

[Bellhorn04]

I love the chorus of boos at Yankee Stadium after Guardians go up 8-0 on a 3 run homer............where's Jacksonianmarch?

 

On the Yankee thread.

[Nick]

It's about the loss column folks....you can't undo a game you just lost...

 

We're one game 'up' on Jays but in reality they've played two less games than us. We're all tied at 65 games lost. Yankees have lost 66 games. Just keep not losing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's about the loss column folks....you can't undo a game you just lost...

 

 

... you can lose and then lie that you really won... but there's no way intelligent fans, media and the league would ever fall for it.

[Nick]

I was making a point that "if the season was over today" crap you read really doesn't make much sense for true baseball fans on this board.

 

Season can't be over today because the Jays have played two less games. They'd have to play two more games and they could easily win them both.

 

Now we have one less loss than the Yankees so they can't catch us if the Sox has no remaining games.

[moonslav59]

It's about the loss column folks....you can't undo a game you just lost...

 

We're one game 'up' on Jays but in reality they've played two less games than us. We're all tied at 65 games lost. Yankees have lost 66 games. Just keep not losing.

 

True, but I'd rather be up 2 in the win column than tied.

 

The Jays can lose, and they are starting to show some cracks after that great run they just had.

 

Trends don't continue forever. There is a reason the Jays and Yanks are bunched up with us. They have weaknesses, too.

 

[moonslav59]

I was making a point that "if the season was over today" crap you read really doesn't make much sense for true baseball fans on this board.

 

Season can't be over today because the Jays have played two less games. They'd have to play two more games and they could easily win them both.

 

Now we have one less loss than the Yankees so they can't catch us if the Sox has no remaining games.

 

The Yanks can catch us, if they win all their games. They can even lose 1 and catch us, because they play us 3 times.

 

The Yanks AND Sox cannot both win all their remaining games. One has to lose at least 1 to 3 games.

[moonslav59]

I've never been one to admire the Quality Start stat, but I made some adjustments to my own system, and here are the results for 2021, including today. (I went through every game box score to gather these results.)

 

A Quality Start:

8+ IP 0-3 ERs/ 6+ IP 0-2 ERs/ 5+ IP 0-1 ER/ 4+ IP 0 ER

 

B Quality Start:

8+ IP 4 ER/ 6+IP 3 ER/ 5+ IP 2 ER/ 4+ IP 1 ER/ 3+ IP 0 ER

 

C Quality Start:

6.2-7.2IP 4 ER/ 5.1-5.2 IP 3 ER/ 4+ IP 2 ER/ 3+ IP 1 ER

 

D (just missed QS):

8+ IP 5 ER/ 6+IP 4 ER/4.1-5.0IP 3ER/ 3.1-3.2 IP 2ER

 

The 2021 Red Sox Starters:

 

Eovaldi 30 GS (20 QS/ 20 A+

15 QSA

5 QSB

0 QSC

2 Close

22/30 QS+ close 73.3%

 

ERod 28 GS (15 QS/14 A+

9 QSA

5 QSB

1 QSC

1 close

16/28 QS+ close 57.1%

 

Pivetta 28 GS (12 QS/ 10 QS A+

10 QSA

0 QSB

2 QSC

6 close

18/28 QS+close 64.3%

 

Perez 22 GS (13 QS/ 13 QS A+

6 QSA

7 QSB

0 QSC

2 close

15/22 QS+ close 68.2%

 

Richards 22 GS (10 QS/ 8 QS A+

6 QSA

2 QSB

2 QSC

3 close

13/22 QS + close 59.1%

 

[moonslav59]

The remaining schedule:

 

BOS

2 v NYM

3 v NYY

3 @ BAL

3 @ WSH

 

NYY

3 v TEX

3 @ BOS

3 @ TOR

3 v TBR (who might be resting their stars)

 

TOR

3 @ TBR

4 @ MIN

3 v NYY

3 v BAL

 

Next Match-ups:

 

MON (Sox off)

TEX (Alexy) @ NYY (Cortes)

TOR (Ray) @ TBR (Baz- #1 prospect's debut)

M's (TBD) @ OAK (Manaea)

 

TUE

NYM (Stroman) @ BOS (ERod)

TEX (Dunning) @ NYY (Montgomery)

TOR (Manoah) @ TBR (Rasmussen)

SEA (TBD) @ OAK (Blackburn)

 

WED

NYM (Megill) @ BOS(Seabold?)

TOR (TBD) @ TBR (Wacha)

TEX (Hearn) @NYY (Kluber)

SEA (TBD) @ OAK (Irvin)

 

THUR (Sox, NYY, TBR off)

TOR @ MIN

 

 

 

[Nick]

Next Match-ups:

 

MON (Sox off)

TEX (Alexy) @ NYY (Cortes)

TOR (Ray) @ TBR (Baz- #1 prospect's debut)

M's (TBD) @ OAK (Manaea)

 

TUE

NYM (Stroman) @ BOS (ERod)

TEX (Dunning) @ NYY (Montgomery)

TOR (Manoah) @ TBR (Rasmussen)

SEA (TBD) @ OAK (Blackburn)

 

WED

NYM (Megill) @ BOS(Seabold?)

TOR (TBD) @ TBR (Wacha)

TEX (Hearn) @NYY (Kluber)

SEA (TBD) @ OAK (Irvin)

 

THUR (Sox, NYY, TBR off)

TOR @ MIN

 

 

 

 

It's tough to rest your roster when the roster expands only to 28. Rays use several players to begin with. They are always well rested.

[moonslav59]

Games Remaining & Strength of Schedule:

 

A: .550+

B: .500-.549

C: .450-.499

D: <.449>

 

BOS 11

3 A

0 B

2 C

6 D

 

TOR 13

6 A

0 B

0 C

7 D

 

NYY

9 A

0 B

0 C

3 D

[moonslav59]

It's tough to rest your roster when the roster expands only to 28. Rays use several players to begin with. They are always well rested.

 

The whole covid thing allowed us to call up numerous players- some not even on our 40 man roster.

 

While some who sat out due to Covid might not have really gotten much "rest," it seems like several did- like Bogey.

 

We have this Monday and Thursday off, then next Monday, so IMO, we don't need to rest anyone, except pitchers recently used, but even the staff should be allowed better usage due to the 3 days off.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I never said he was any good- just better than before.

 

7.94 (1.012 OPS) first 21 games with us.

 

0.00 (.367 OPS) last 6 games.

 

Also, Austin Davis:

5.44 before BOS

5.11 (.753 OPS) first 12 games

0.00 (.558) last 5 games

 

 

Robles is on a great run now.