A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Nick]

Martinez Player option at 19 million. Your stuck with the Player at DH for one more season. He is your Schwarber.

Pedroia and AB Retained salary off the books. One ridiculous retained salary in Price left for 22 and your done.

 

Don't get caught handing out more terrible contracts.

 

That is why I have preached Re-building the Minor League System with new direction. So you don't have to take a chance on a bad free agent deal (after Year one or two of the deal) or trade because your minor league system cannot develop.

 

There are zero Free-Agent Hitters under age 30 next off season worth big money, zero. You have to develop and scan the trade market

 

Well I was thinking more in line of replacement for JD, whose tax payroll is $22M. Getting Schwarber at less than $15M would help. He's as good left fielder as JD in my opinion.

 

Or we can go with the committee approach for DH. Use regulars to fill that role. That, I'm sure will be cheaper.

[Bellhorn04]

ADD, I love how Schwarber somehow doesn't have a position because he's played a few games at RF/C. He's started over 90% of his games in LF, he's a left fielder.

 

STORK is a low-level troll. Don't let him hurt your brain, put him on Ignore like I did.

[Hugh2]

OPS

 

Arroyo .777

Dalbec .740

 

Arroyo is a much better fielder, and moving Kike to CF improves our OF D and keeps JD out of the OF.

 

Ok, that's fine, but Arroyo has only been on this team for less than a week so he wasn't even in this conversation until very recently. Up until then, it made sense to put KIKE at 2nd and Schwarber in LF. So literally, up until right now, there's zero arguments for Schwarber being at 1B over Dalbec. With Arroyo back there is, but it's not like he's that much better at 2nd. He's better, don't get me wrong but it's not this big leap over Kike and he's never played in more than 34 games a season until this year.

 

Now we can say that he has a higher OPS than Bobby, but Bobby has better career numbers in a similar sample size. But, if you want to have more recency bias and use this year's state lines let's also recognize if we take out the first 2 months and look at the last 3 Bobby has been a much better hitter.

 

This opinion comes with the realization that Dalbec could very well do what he's down all season long and go on a terrible slump, which is why I've continually said we could see Schwarber at 1B at some point. But right now, when the offense is struggling, why would you remove your best hitter for the past couple weeks for marginally better defense at 2nd?

[jacksonianmarch]

The dumbest thing the sox did was moving Kike off his best defensive position and move him to one of his worst. He is an excellent defensive CFer. That is a premium defensive position. All the metrics back him up. If I was Cora, he would never need his IF glove again. He hits well, he runs well and he plays a premium D position very well

[iortiz]

Playing Kike at CF, Arroyo at 2B is the best way to go IF Shwarber can play decent D at 1B without get injured.

 

My Lup would be like this:

 

Kike (CF)

Shwarber (1B)

Xander (SS)

Devers (3B)

Renfroe (RF)

Verdugo (LF)

Arroyo (2B)

JD (DH)

Vazquez ©

[iortiz]

OTOH these days Dalbec could take 1B, Shwarber DH and JD goes to bench.

 

Kike (CF)

Shwarber (DH)

Xander (SS)

Devers (3B)

Renfroe (RF)

Verdugo (LF)

Arroyo (2B)

Dalbec (1B)

Vazquez ©

[mvp 78]

Ok, that's fine, but Arroyo has only been on this team for less than a week so he wasn't even in this conversation until very recently. Up until then, it made sense to put KIKE at 2nd and Schwarber in LF. So literally, up until right now, there's zero arguments for Schwarber being at 1B over Dalbec. With Arroyo back there is, but it's not like he's that much better at 2nd. He's better, don't get me wrong but it's not this big leap over Kike and he's never played in more than 34 games a season until this year.

 

Now we can say that he has a higher OPS than Bobby, but Bobby has better career numbers in a similar sample size. But, if you want to have more recency bias and use this year's state lines let's also recognize if we take out the first 2 months and look at the last 3 Bobby has been a much better hitter.

 

This opinion comes with the realization that Dalbec could very well do what he's down all season long and go on a terrible slump, which is why I've continually said we could see Schwarber at 1B at some point. But right now, when the offense is struggling, why would you remove your best hitter for the past couple weeks for marginally better defense at 2nd?

 

Arroyo and Dalbec are the same age. How good would Dalbec's numbers look if he had played in MLB in 17 and 18 like Arroyo did?

[Hugh2]

Can we at least wait for Dalbec to turn back into a pumpkin first? The dude has been absolutely destroying the baseball lately and this team has been struggling for offense. Not a good look taking your best hitter right now out of the lineup for marginally better defense at 2nd.

[Hugh2]

Arroyo and Dalbec are the same age. How good would Dalbec's numbers look if he had played in MLB in 17 and 18 like Arroyo did?

 

Fair point, you kind of need a recency bias with young developing players. And how has Dalbec looked lately?

[Maxbialystock]

STORK is a low-level troll. Don't let him hurt your brain, put him on Ignore like I did.

 

You're right, of course, but I don't put him on ignore. The trick is to read but not to respond.

[mvp 78]

I also don't want to understate what Arroyo has been this year. If he had the same production over 150 games, he'd be a 3 fWAR player. Dalbec over 150 games would be a 0 fWAR player.

[mvp 78]

Fair point, you kind of need a recency bias with young developing players. And how has Dalbec looked lately?

 

Dalbec has looked great. My worry is that it's just the rollercoaster ride for a guy with Dalbec's skillset. He'll go on a tear for a while and then go ice cold for just as long if not longer. I hope he can figure it out, increase his walk rate and find a defensive position. I wonder if he'd be a better fit in LF.

[Bellhorn04]

OTOH these days Dalbec could take 1B, Shwarber DH and JD goes to bench.

 

Kike (CF)

Shwarber (DH)

Xander (SS)

Devers (3B)

Renfroe (RF)

Verdugo (LF)

Arroyo (2B)

Dalbec (1B)

Vazquez ©

 

Can't just put JD on the bench.

[mvp 78]

If you exclude Arroyo's 2017 stint in MLB when he was 22, he has a career 103 WRC+. At AAA in 2017, he had a 1065 OPS.

 

Dalbec has a career 107 WRC+. When Dalbec was 22, he was in A ball with a 772 OPS and a 35% k rate.

[mvp 78]

Can't just put JD on the bench.

 

It would get him to opt out.

[Bellhorn04]

From what I've seen, Alex Cora is a guy who tries to use everybody at his disposal. So no matter what we see going forward, no one who's contributing will stay on the bench for long stretches.

[Bellhorn04]

It would get him to opt out.

 

Which might be a lose-lose.

[moonslav59]

I also don't want to understate what Arroyo has been this year. If he had the same production over 150 games, he'd be a 3 fWAR player. Dalbec over 150 games would be a 0 fWAR player.

 

This says it all.

 

Our ideal line-up has to be:

 

C: Vaz with Plawecki giving him plenty of rest.

1B: Dalbec vs LHPs/Schwarber vs RHPs

2B: Arroyo (maybe sits vs some LHPs as Schwarber plays OF and Kike 2B)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogey (get his some extra rest by playing Arroyo at SS, when Kike is at 2B & Schwarber in the OF)

LF: Verdugo (with Schwarber vs LHPs)

CF: Kike (Verdugo vs some LHPs)

RF: Renfroe (Maybe Schwarber when in parks with shorter RF's and a lefty pitching)

DH: JD

 

1. Kike CF (some 2B)

2. Devers 3B

3. Bogey SS

4. Schwarber 1B/OF

5. JD DH

6. Renfroe RF

7. Verdugo LF/CF

8. Arroyo 2B v R/Dalbec 1B v L

9. Vaz

[mvp 78]

Which might be a lose-lose.

 

Yes. I'd rather him stay for another year or two.

[moonslav59]

Can't just put JD on the bench.

 

The guy has a 10 day slump, and we're talking benching him?

 

Geesh!

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec's 2021 OPS vs. RHP is now .700 and rising. He's been getting a fair number of starts vs. righties.

[Hugh2]

Dalbec has looked great. My worry is that it's just the rollercoaster ride for a guy with Dalbec's skillset. He'll go on a tear for a while and then go ice cold for just as long if not longer. I hope he can figure it out, increase his walk rate and find a defensive position. I wonder if he'd be a better fit in LF.

 

He came up as a 3B, moved to 1B for Devers. If you're going to keep him in the lineup in LF to put.....Schwarber at 1B you mine as well keep him at 1B. You're probably right, track record tells us Bobby is probably going to go on a long slump at some point but he's been more consistent lately and more immediately has been your best hitter. Worse case scenario you ride his hot hand until you put Schwaber at 1B and Arroyo at 2nd then you're right where you want to be anyways, at best Dalbec takes a big leap forward or at least increases his trade value. I'd love to plug Schwarber at 1B to bridge to Casas and then he can replace JD as the DH/OF

[mvp 78]

Dalbec's 2021 OPS vs. RHP is now .700 and rising. He's been getting a fair number of starts vs. righties.

 

It's why it's unfair to completely abandon younger players. They need to play through their cold stretches. This goes for Duran too. Having him sit on the bench isn't going to do him any good.

 

All these posters who only want to bring players up through the farm system are going to have to learn to deal with down years when the Sox are going through growing pains.

[MADSTORK]

90 million isn't big money players are literally pushing FOUR times that amount, and we might be able to sign him for less than that. You're complaining about one poster's opinion. Even with a strong farm you still need to pay people. You can't run an all 25 under lineup you have to fill in the gaps.

 

You fill in the gaps with big money with players who are deserving of big money based on Scouting, development, future performance, positional performance and projection, past performance and consistency. That is why when you develop a Mookie Betts you don't trade the Player because you cap strapped your payroll with player signings like a Sandoval, Pedroia, Price and a Schwarber type player.

 

You cannot hand out guys like Schwarber 15 million a year because the market dictates it. Scouting and future performance and projection has a lot to do with contracts and what your going to pay. The big word here is consistency. Betts over a 7 year stretch had consistency year in and year out. Schwarber does not. Its one good year one not so good that is why stats at times are flawed. Yes schwarber has an .800 career ops but the model of consistency is a red flag!

[mvp 78]

He came up as a 3B, moved to 1B for Devers. If you're going to keep him in the lineup in LF to put.....Schwarber at 1B you mine as well keep him at 1B. You're probably right, track record tells us Bobby is probably going to go on a long slump at some point but he's been more consistent lately and more immediately has been your best hitter. Worse case scenario you ride his hot hand until you put Schwaber at 1B and Arroyo at 2nd then you're right where you want to be anyways, at best Dalbec takes a big leap forward or at least increases his trade value. I'd love to plug Schwarber at 1B to bridge to Casas and then he can replace JD as the DH/OF

 

IMO, he's not a good 1b. He's not natural over there. If you put him in LF, maybe he could be a little more comfortable. He's spent the majority of his baseball career on that side of the diamond.

 

I think Casas comes up next year. At that point, Dalbec will not have a full time role at 1b. May as well transition him off there now.

[Hugh2]

You guys are right.....not worth engaging.

[Hugh2]

You fill in the gaps with big money with players who are deserving of big money based on Scouting, development, future performance, positional performance and projection, past performance and consistency. That is why when you develop a Mookie Betts you don't trade the Player because you cap strapped your payroll with player signings like a Sandoval, Pedroia, Price and a Schwarber type player.

 

You cannot hand out guys like Schwarber 15 million a year because the market dictates it. Scouting and future performance and projection has a lot to do with contracts and what your going to pay. The big word here is consistency. Betts over a 7 year stretch had consistency year in and year out. Schwarber does not. Its one good year one not so good that is why stats at times are flawed. Yes schwarber has an .800 career ops but the model of consistency is a red flag!

 

Your post would be 100% spot on if we were talking about an unreasonable amount of money. We are not.

[notin]

I've followed Schwarber ever since his college days at IU. He caught and batted second, which I thought at the time was rather odd, catcher hitting second.

 

He has always been a hitter. I don't think that'll change.

 

And on college he was a teammate of former Sox stud 1b Sam Travis…

[notin]

Ughhh What? LOL you'r seriously going to reference one stat line, AVERAGE? you could have at least rounded up to .240 instead of down to .230.

 

Schwarber is also a .813 life time OPS hitter behind only JDM .881 and Devers .834, and that puts him ahead of Bogaerts, Verdugo, and well.....everyone else.

 

Unless of course you want to say AVG > SLG/OBP. Which would just be bonkers.

 

Also with Boston, Schwarber has 12 walks in 42 PA

 

For some perspective, Dalbec has 18 walks in 352 PA…

[MADSTORK]

Well I was thinking more in line of replacement for JD, whose tax payroll is $22M. Getting Schwarber at less than $15M would help. He's as good left fielder as JD in my opinion.

 

Or we can go with the committee approach for DH. Use regulars to fill that role. That, I'm sure will be cheaper.

 

 

 

Cheaper Yes, but there is no consistency in Schwarber's career to dictate that kind of money. Especially when you let a Player like Betts walk or in this case Traded. You take the 15 million wait until a Betts type player becomes available or you allocate that money to Devers, XB who are the next Betts type contracts to come up.

 

Do you really want to lose XB and Devers because your again cap strapped by handing out 15 or even say 10 million to a player who does not have a career of consistency under his belt?

 

Stash the Cash, go and sign an AJ Pollack next year at a fraction of the cost to bridge the gap until a better player comes along