A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[notin]

Despite Vaz's nice .801 OPS in 2021, here's an eye-opener:

 

OPS 2020-2021 combined:

.790 Plawecki (190 PAs)

.700 Vaz (554 PAs)

 

Why is Vaz on pace to reach his highest PA and inning numbers?

 

Because very few people think Plawecki and his career.662 OPS are going to keep up that pace for another 350 plate appearances?

[Noles_1335]

Like I said a few weeks ago… maybe, just maybe, it’s time to evaluate the pitching coaches! In our program as a whole… from the bottom to the top and that goes for the ones who evaluate the talent!!!

[moonslav59]

Because very few people think Plawecki and his career.662 OPS are going to keep up that pace for another 350 plate appearances?

 

I didn't say give him 350, but 250, maybe.

 

BTW, Vaz has a career .692 OPS. Not much better.

[Larry Cook]

Like I said a few weeks ago… maybe, just maybe, it’s time to evaluate the pitching coaches! In our program as a whole… from the bottom to the top and that goes for the ones who evaluate the talent!!!

 

I think the pitching coaches deserve both my less than total congratulations for the incredible job they did from April through July!

 

Guys have just run out of gas!

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't say give him 350, but 250, maybe.

 

BTW, Vaz has a career .692 OPS. Not much better.

 

30 points better, nonetheless.

[mvp 78]

I didn't say give him 350, but 250, maybe.

 

BTW, Vaz has a career .692 OPS. Not much better.

 

Vaz also has much better defense according to advanced metrics.

[moonslav59]

30 points better, nonetheless.

 

But 90 points less since 2020, nonetheless, and then there is the whole CERA Pandora's Box to open.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

(Intentionally avoiding the game thread of the worst loss of the year...)

 

After today, I expect Alex Cora to be fired -- and not because he's a bad manager... but because he either physically punches out Chaim Bloom or at least calls him a slew of swearwords in both English and Spanish.

 

Some fans and media will blame Barnes and Ottavino for choking or blame Cora for using them again and again when they were burnt toast. But anyone who follows the MLB as closely as a lot of us know why today happened... it's been building to this nadir since the trade deadline. When contenders in both leagues traded for star position players or even a few starting pitchers, and those costs proved too high for Bloom, the Sox still would've been improved and reinforced if Boston only added just one more reliable bullpen arm that Cora could trust in high leverage innings.

 

Instead, Bloom acquired Hansel and Gretel.

[moonslav59]

(Intentionally avoiding the game thread of the worst loss of the year...)

 

After today, I expect Alex Cora to be fired -- and not because he's a bad manager... but because he either physically punches out Chaim Bloom or at least calls him a slew of swearwords in both English and Spanish.

 

Some fans and media will blame Barnes and Ottavino for choking or blame Cora for using them again and again when they were burnt toast. But anyone who follows the MLB as closely as a lot of us know why today happened... it's been building to this nadir since the trade deadline. When contenders in both leagues traded for star position players or even a few starting pitchers, and those costs proved too high for Bloom, the Sox still would've been improved and reinforced if Boston only added just one more reliable bullpen arm that Cora could trust in high leverage innings.

 

Instead, Bloom acquired Hansel and Gretel.

 

You think Scherzer, Rizzo & Kimbrel would have turned this putrid team (as many here now think they are) into a contender?

 

If yes, would entirely emptying the farm, because that's what it would have taken, been worth a stab in the dark for one October?

 

[moonslav59]

Vaz also has much better defense according to advanced metrics.

 

Except pitchers do worse with him than the back-up year after year. (Only Swihart did worse.)

[moonslav59]

So, would anyone here have traded:

 

Casas, Bello & Groome for Scherzer

Duran & Ward for Kimbrel

Jimenez & Seabold for Rizzo

 

Hey, we'd still have Downs & Yorke!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You think Scherzer, Rizzo & Kimbrel would have turned this putrid team (as many here now think they are) into a contender?

 

If yes, would entirely emptying the farm, because that's what it would have taken, been worth a stab in the dark for one October?

 

 

Nope, never said that. My post is that these Sox needed and could've added one more reliable reliever that Cora would actually trust to use in high leverage. They didn't, just like at the 2019 deadline for an earlier burnt out bullpen -- the last time the front office gave up on the uniformed personnel.

[moonslav59]

Nope, never said that. My post is that these Sox needed and could've added one more reliable reliever that Cora would actually trust to use in high leverage. They didn't, just like at the 2019 deadline for an earlier burnt out bullpen -- the last time the front office gave up on the uniformed personnel.

 

Would that have put us over the top?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Would that have put us over the top?

 

Top of the world? Who knows. Probably not.

 

But it would've improved the club's chances to win more games the rest of the regular season, added reinforcements by addressing an immediate need, and maybe provided a morale booster by showing the players, manager and coaches that the organization had enough faith in them this year to have their backs by rewarding them for a great first half. This year.

[Nick]

Richards pitches 5 innings, gives up 4 runs, only 3 earned runs and we do backflips for his stellar performance.

 

Such is the state of Red Sox.

 

I'm not worried as long as Cora is not worried.

 

Who was the poster that told me I was all wet for saying Barnes is regressing?

[MADSTORK]

Like I said a few weeks ago… maybe, just maybe, it’s time to evaluate the pitching coaches! In our program as a whole… from the bottom to the top and that goes for the ones who evaluate the talent!!!

 

Its time to evaluate the Minor League Developmental System as a whole.

Name the last #1 or #2 Starting Pitcher developed by the system not named Lester? You Can't. Same can be said for a high leverage reliever.

I stated years ago the problem is Ben Crockett! He must go along with the entire scouting philosophy he directs. Until that happens your in Developmental Purgatory.

 

Funny how Tampa continues to produce starting Pitching while most fans cannot name one let alone two SP's in their rotation as we speak.

Crockett must go!

[Larry Cook]

This year started out disappointing on the pitcher development front with mata and ward needing Tommy John.

 

However, some of the other guys have been very exciting and for the first time in years, I am optimistic that we have some stud starters in the pipeline.

 

1.) cutter Crawford came back from Tommy John and has looked pretty good!

 

2.) bello has finally shown he can command the strike zone. His stuff plays well!

 

3.) winkleman is so exciting to watch. It is way too early to know how he turns out, but right now he looks to have an incredible future as a starter!

[oldtimer]

Would that have put us over the top?

 

In a related question, we must be very close to the CBT limit as we sit. I'm personally not certain how close we are. My question is can we add a minor league player, not currently on the 40 man roster without exceeding that limit? If we DFA a player currently on the 40 man can we deduct a prorated amount of salary from our total?

 

I am just thinking of Munoz, Casas and any minor league pitcher, although I can't name one who might help who isn't on the 40 man.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its time to evaluate the Minor League Developmental System as a whole.

Name the last #1 or #2 Starting Pitcher developed by the system not named Lester? You Can't. Same can be said for a high leverage reliever.

I stated years ago the problem is Ben Crockett! He must go along with the entire scouting philosophy he directs. Until that happens your in Developmental Purgatory.

 

Funny how Tampa continues to produce starting Pitching while most fans cannot name one let alone two SP's in their rotation as we speak.

Crockett must go!

 

Tampa keeps trading for good prospects mostly developed. Yarbrough, Glasnow, Patino were all products of trades

[moonslav59]

In a related question, we must be very close to the CBT limit as we sit. I'm personally not certain how close we are. My question is can we add a minor league player, not currently on the 40 man roster without exceeding that limit? If we DFA a player currently on the 40 man can we deduct a prorated amount of salary from our total?

 

I am just thinking of Munoz, Casas and any minor league pitcher, although I can't name one who might help who isn't on the 40 man.

 

I'm pretty certain we are under the tax line.

 

If we cut Marwin and he clears waivers and is picked up by someone at min wage cost, we save that min wage cost, but that cost would be cancelled out by adding Munoz at min wage cost. We'd break even.

 

If someone took Marwin, or Richards, or Perez at cost, we'd save a significant amount.

 

(Bloom will not DFA Marwin. He may DFA Santana, Andriese or Richards, and long shot Perez.)

[moonslav59]

Tampa keeps trading for good prospects mostly developed. Yarbrough, Glasnow, Patino were all products of trades

 

And, conversely, they trade away pitchers just before they implode.

[jacksonianmarch]

And, conversely, they trade away pitchers just before they implode.

 

They treat pitchers like currency. They don't marry to anyone at all, so they can afford to give up on someone a year too early.

[Nick]

They treat pitchers like currency. They don't marry to anyone at all, so they can afford to give up on someone a year too early.

 

Good point. That's why not one player makes over $10M and they only have two players that have contract for 2022. Pretty amazing.

[Tedballgame]

This year started out disappointing on the pitcher development front with mata and ward needing Tommy John.

 

However, some of the other guys have been very exciting and for the first time in years, I am optimistic that we have some stud starters in the pipeline.

 

1.) cutter Crawford came back from Tommy John and has looked pretty good!

 

2.) bello has finally shown he can command the strike zone. His stuff plays well!

 

3.) winkleman is so exciting to watch. It is way too early to know how he turns out, but right now he looks to have an incredible future as a starter!

 

Bello is getting hammered at Portland in AA.

[moonslav59]

They treat pitchers like currency. They don't marry to anyone at all, so they can afford to give up on someone a year too early.

 

The thing is, they don't give 'em up a year too early. They give them up at exactly the right time, time after time. Sometimes the pitchers are young and doing very well, other times near 30 but still looking prime.

 

Age Pitcher Results (ERA+ before and after trade)

28 Snell (129 career TBR> 72 SDP in 2021 at age 28)

27 Odorizzi (108 w TBR '15-'17> 107 MN age 28-29> 82 last 2 yrs)

29 Archer (107 career TBR> 86 PIT at age 29-30)

25 Kazmir (114 career TBR> 77 LAA ages 25-27 + 94 at age 28 CLE)

27 Moore (100 career TBR> 82 SFG ages 27-28, 70 TEX age 29)

 

I do wonder why they never traded Alex Cobb.

Shields broke the mold:

107 w TBR (traded at age 30)

127 w KCR (2 years after trade)

84 next 4 years

and

28 Price (122 career TBR>Det 136 age 29 for 1 yr-2 months, 118 BOS)

[moonslav59]

Good point. That's why not one player makes over $10M and they only have two players that have contract for 2022. Pretty amazing.

 

It is, but they have a lot of good players under control for 2022 and beyond.

[Tedballgame]

So, would anyone here have traded:

 

Casas, Bello & Groome for Scherzer

Duran & Ward for Kimbrel

Jimenez & Seabold for Rizzo

 

Hey, we'd still have Downs & Yorke!

 

Downs is way over his head in AAA. Yorke is having an excellent season (.312 BA and 2 homeruns today) at Salem (High A).

[Larry Cook]

Bello is getting hammered at Portland in AA.

 

Yes he ran out of has today in the sixth inning, but his stuff is worthy, once he develops more stamina and sharpness!

[Maxbialystock]

Richards pitches 5 innings, gives up 4 runs, only 3 earned runs and we do backflips for his stellar performance.

 

Such is the state of Red Sox.

 

I'm not worried as long as Cora is not worried.

 

Who was the poster that told me I was all wet for saying Barnes is regressing?

 

Whoa, Nellie. I'm the one defending Richards, whom I despise, but not because because he was great but because our expectations were low and because he left the game when the Sox were leading 7-4 after 5 innings. This was an adequate start under the circumstances. The bullpen normally could hold a 3 run lead, which became a 4 run lead, for 4 innings.

 

About Barnes. I think his formula for success is simple: mix the fastball with knuckle curves and be able to command both pitches. When he gives up the knuckle curve, as he clearly did tonight, he is dead meat. Both dingers off Barnes--in yesterday's day game and today's game--were off of fastballs near the center of the zone.

 

I will agree with the backsliding if you agree he needs that knuckle curve working to be successful.

[moonslav59]

A 5.40 ERA is never adequate ( 3 ER in 5 IP). 6 H + 1 BB = 1.40 WHIP.

 

Yes, as bad as it looks, it's better than his previous starts, but it still sucks.

 

Just because the pen gave up more, doesn't change the fact that Richards should not have even been starting today or his last start or two (or more).