A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I should add that from the rumors that emerged later, O-Cab was not such a great clubhouse addition in certain respects...

 

It was all worth it for the glove, the handshakes, and the way he taunted Yankee Stadium in Game Seven of the LCS.

[notin]

I should add that from the rumors that emerged later, O-Cab was not such a great clubhouse addition in certain respects...

 

I can attest that the stories about him in Chicago later in his career were far from stellar as well. He was reportedly a notorious complainer.

 

He played better D than Nomar, but anything else appears to be up for debate...

[notin]

I remember listening to Merloni when the '19 deadline passed and the Sox didn't add anyone, especially bullpen help, which was a dire need at the time. In effect, he said the message to the team of no deals at the deadline meant the FO didn't think they were good enough to go "all-in." Demoralizing.

 

On the flip side, the Astros were supposedly ecstatic when they nabbed Verlander at the end of the summer of '17. Imagine the boost of confidence to an already good team that acquires a Cy Young for the stretch drive...

 

I get that viewpoint.

 

but also at some point, when you do acquire a player at the deadline, you do have to tell someone on your team "you're not good enough," which can be interpreted as "you're the one holding us back." Even Verlander replaced somebody...

[jad]

I should add that from the rumors that emerged later, O-Cab was not such a great clubhouse addition in certain respects...

 

Maybe we talked of this before. I've heard OF those rumors, but don't know any details. I liked Cabrera a lot; he always gave really good and smart interviews. I remember he was friends with Manny and was adamant that the friction between him and (was it writers?) was because Manny was not entirely comfortable in his second language.

[dgalehouse]

I find Yankee fans don't bother me near as much since we 'righted the ship' with them in 2004 and 2018.

 

Absolutely. In the old days , it always seemed that we were being mocked , beaten and bullied by the big , bad Yankees and their obnoxious fans . That took a big hit with the great comeback in 2004 . And it went away completely by the time we won three straight A.L. East titles , culminating in 1918 with our fourth championship in fifteen years. Now , Yankee fans are only mildly annoying. The only downside being that some Sox fans have now become just a bit obnoxious themselves.

[moonslav59]

I don't want to hear management complain about our pitching staff without seeing what Houck and Whitlock can do as starters.

 

Not saying Duran is better but obviously Cordero and Franchy are not performing.

 

Houck and Whitlock will reach their innings pitched limits for this year, unless they start pitching too poorly to earn them. It's not a bad idea to spread out those innings by placing them in the situations they are most likely to succeed and possibly having some innings left for the end of the season and maybe even a playoff series or two. BTW, Whitlock is just 1/3 of an inning from leading the Sox pen in IP, this season:

11.2 Andriese

11.1 Whitlock

11.0 Barnes

 

Houck will get his chance, for sure, but we really needed to see what Richards, Pivetta and Perez could give us, and 3-4 starts each is not really enough to pull the plug on anyone, especially when all 3 of them have shown signs of being decent to good.

 

Yes, Cordero and Renfroe have obviously been playing very poorly, but again, it's not even the end of the first month. Do you really think plugs should be pulled over sample sizes under 50 PAs? Just look at some of some recent Sox players extended slumps. JBJ is the classic example, but look at JD's 60 game sample size,last year. I could find dozens and dozens of cases where pulling the plug would have been an awful idea. The second part is for whom? If Duran was hitting .875 in AAA after a month or tow and was showing he was okay on defense, maybe, but the kid isn't even playing live ball, right now, and hasn't since ST'ing.

 

When Duran is ready, he'll get his shot. If Cordero & Renfore keep playing like this for another 3-4 weeks, which to me is not likely, then maybe we look elsewhere, and my bte is they give Marwin the first chance to win the LF role, then maybe Chavis or Puello. Again, I'm not down on Duran, but it is very likely not "his time" this early in the season.

[moonslav59]

Who are you referring to?

 

Many have sucked, including Ozuna.

[moonslav59]

I was hoping we'd sign Kevin Pillar. He's hitting .091.

 

I was pining for Marisnick, mostly for his D. He's hitting over .900.

[moonslav59]

Bloom rolled the dice on the OF for a reason. If Renfroe and Cordero found their stroke in Fenway, then you’re gold. If not and the Sox are in contention, it’s very easy to snag a serviceable OFer via trade.

 

Exactly, and the other positions he rolled the dice on are:

 

1B: Dalbec (Marwin/Chavis/Casas) - also,another position where trading for one is very cheap at the deadline.

 

2B: where we have 6 guys to shuffle through to find one that is decent, and we may have struck gold on the second choice:

 

Kike

Arroyo

Marwin

Arauz

Downs

Munoz

 

Bloom is not dumb.

[Bellhorn04]

I was pining for Marisnick, mostly for his D. He's hitting over .900.

 

Unsustainable, I daresay.

[moonslav59]

Even a lot of those cheap outfielders appeared to cost more than the Sox were willing to spend. Sure, say, Eddie Rosario only cost what, $8mill for one year. But who was the last free agent the Sox signed for with an AAV that high? Right now the only one Bloom has signed is Enrique Hernandez. And while Hernandez is not exactly crushing it (99 OPS+), neither is Rosario (74 OPS+).

 

This year, putting together a quick fix team did not appear to be the priority, because spending heavily with no cheap fill-in players is a death trap for a team. The Sox took some chances with scouting report guys with weak stats, like Cordero and Pivetta. The down side is, they could easily continue to flounder or get injured. But even if that happens, there is no real commitment. They're not stuck paying them for the next 4 to 6 seasons to continue to flop.

 

But the goal was clearly to get players behind them in the minors. Players who might not becaome stars, but at the very least, can make the roster while being paid league minimum, which frees up the budget to either bring in better players or extend some of the current players like Devers and Verdugo, or both. Obviously the Sox hope Cordero and Pivetta and probably a few others can play well enough to join that list. But while that decision is being made, they did not want to be stuck with any other long term commitments, at least not now.

 

The actual real problem with that plan was the Sox started winning. And now fans can't tolerate the gambles they took because they are not all paying off right away. But this team was never expected to be in this position. It''s only been what, a little over two weeks since they got swept at Fenway by lowly Baltimore and John Tomase wrote one of the most scathing articles about this team most of us have ever seen. After reading that article, was the thought really "Well, if we did not have Renfroe and Cordero, we could contend"?

 

THere is going to have to be some patience. This team had a payroll well over $240 million two years ago and finished up in early October, and THAT was when all the really scathing articles about the long term view of the Sox and their commitments to Sale, Price and Eovaldi were gong to drag this team down further, especially given the state of the minimum wage guys aka the "Cliff". And they might have even been correct assessments, but Bloom tried to clean that mess up. Right now, the biggest complaint against him is maybe he cleaned it up too quickly and the team is trying to contend with too many players with unforeseeable futures...

 

We had about 8-10 big holes in our 26 man roster to fill, last winter, as well as one of the worst bottom of the 40 man rosters I have seen since pre- Dan Duquette. All this with a limited spending budget hampered by $57M being spent on players who are either not with the Sox, now (Price, Pedey & Beni),or on the 60 day IL (Sale).

 

I think he has done pretty well considering the budget, and it's also too early to judge one way or the other.

[moonslav59]

I wrote this the other day. The real problem for Bloom and Co. is if the Sox are still on top in July, and fell compelled to be buyers; trading prospects for a rental or two while standing in the middle of the bridge may be unpalatable for the FO... but standing pat and not addressing areas of need can destroy team morale and cause friction with Cora (though he'd never admit it publicly).

 

Bloom left about $4.5M on the spending budget, which is more than it looks like, because trading for saalry dumps at the deadline means just paying 1/3 of their contracts.

 

We don't have to trade top or even moderate prospects to get decent players that are overpaid and on teams looking to save millions.

 

Would it kill our future by trading Chavis or even Ward or Groome?

 

Who knows, maybe we can even do a deal like Ottavino, where we take on a big contract and add to the farm at the same time, while giving up nothing. Had we made the Ottavino deal at the deadline, we'd only be on the hook for $3.5M of his $10M deal, and we'd still be under the tax line by $1M, which might allow us to add another smaller piece..

[moonslav59]

Unsustainable, I daresay.

 

No doubt, but he'd have quieted the bring Duran up now fan club.

 

(I'm not sure why that club is bothering me so much.)

[Nick]

E Rod with 7 innings pitched, 0 walks...

 

Do we really need to look at any other stats?

 

You're either a grown up pitcher that has strike zone command or you're just a pretender, not knowing where the strike zone is or afraid to challenge the hitters....a whimp.

 

How can you pitch for over 10 years and can't throw strikes?

[Bellhorn04]

E Rod with 7 innings pitched, 0 walks...

 

Do we really need to look at any other stats?

 

You're either a grown up pitcher that has strike zone command or you're just a pretender, not knowing where the strike zone is or afraid to challenge the hitters....a whimp.

 

How can you pitch for over 10 years and can't throw strikes?

 

On the other hand, if it was all about throwing strikes, Porcello would have a job right now.

[dgalehouse]

A big part of success in pitching is getting hitters to swing at pitches that are NOT strikes.

[Bellhorn04]

A big part of success in pitching is getting hitters to swing at pitches that are NOT strikes.

 

True that.

 

In addition, the LAST thing you're supposed to do is throw the ball in the middle of the strike zone.

[Nick]

A big part of success in pitching is getting hitters to swing at pitches that are NOT strikes.

 

No kidding Sherlock......but if you can't throw strikes, hitters won't swing at pitches outside of strike zone......

[dgalehouse]

No kidding Sherlock......but if you can't throw strikes, hitters won't swing at pitches outside of strike zone......

 

Elementary, my dear Watson. Have a nice day.

[moonslav59]

.727 Hernandez 95 PAs

1.199 JD 92

.907 Devers 90

.976 Bogey 90

.908 Verdugo 89

.692 Vaz 75

.677 Marwin 75

.646 Dalbec 63

.771 Arroyo 58

.496 Renfroe 57

.510 Cordero 49

.471 Plawecki 27

 

What's interesting, to me, is that despite our "hot start," we have 7 of our top 12 hitters at .727 or lower.

6 of our top 12 are at .692 or lower.

4 are below .647.

3 under .510.

 

Maybe expect Arroyo and Marwin to move up on the PA chart, and Cordero & Renfroe to remain near the bottom.

[Swiharts Ghost]

.727 Hernandez 95 PAs

1.199 JD 92

.907 Devers 90

.976 Bogey 90

.908 Verdugo 89

.692 Vaz 75

.677 Marwin 75

.646 Dalbec 63

.771 Arroyo 58

.496 Renfroe 57

.510 Cordero 49

.471 Plawecki 27

 

What's interesting, to me, is that despite our "hot start," we have 7 of our top 12 hitters at .727 or lower.

6 of our top 12 are at .692 or lower.

4 are below .647.

3 under .510.

 

Maybe expect Arroyo and Marwin to move up on the PA chart, and Cordero & Renfroe to remain near the bottom.

 

Bloom has been a disaster I’m sorry but Franchy ,Renfroe are horrific sighnings and Plawecki ??? Kiki as a full time player ? Bobby is not ready for prime time and may never be .We need a better everyday option at 1b and LF I’m hoping we upgrade catcher this winter if at all possible ....these guys call a game and frame pitches like a 9 year old .

Edited April 26, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

Bloom has been a disaster I’m sorry but Franchy ,Renfroe are horrific sighnings and Plawecki ??? Kiki as a full time player ? Bobby is not ready for prime time and may never be .We need a better everyday option at 1b and LF I’m hoping we upgrade catcher this winter if at all possible ....these guys call a game and frame pitches like a 9 year old .

 

Bloom is just what this team needed.

 

Have you forgotten he had about 10 slots to fill on the 26 plus 10 more on the bottom end of the 40- all with a very limited budget?

 

Plawecki has a .768 OPS with the Sox.

 

Dalbec is at .828 since his call up- amazing for someone's first 150 PAs in MLB.

 

Kike is hitting his career OPS.

 

You should look beyond a 4 less than week sample size.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom has been a disaster I’m sorry but Franchy ,Renfroe are horrific sighnings and Plawecki ??? Kiki as a full time player ? Bobby is not ready for prime time and may never be .We need a better everyday option at 1b and LF I’m hoping we upgrade catcher this winter if at all possible ....these guys call a game and frame pitches like a 9 year old .

 

You're a disaster.

 

Do you know how to read the standings?

[oldtimer]

The Sox are likely to compile a record of 16 wins in April. It's pushing it to extrapolate such a small sample over a 162 game season, but if one does the math it would amount to a 96 win season. That would be enough to make the playoffs. We do have Sale coming back and Whitlock and Houck who could be utilized more going forward.

 

I'm a believer in reinforcing the team and making moves where there are weak spots before we take losses. So far, Codero, Renfroe, Dalbec and Plawecki haven't helped the cause a lot. We have Chavis, Duran, Santana, Downs, Wong, Mata and Seabold who may be ready. I would also think management should look at going over the CBT if they can materially strengthen the team.

 

Codero is having major struggles and has options. Renfroe is not far behind. Dalbec and Plaweki probably deserve a longer look. The time is now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox are likely to compile a record of 16 wins in April. It's pushing it to extrapolate such a small sample over a 162 game season, but if one does the math it would amount to a 96 win season. That would be enough to make the playoffs. We do have Sale coming back and Whitlock and Houck who could be utilized more going forward.

 

I'm a believer in reinforcing the team and making moves where there are weak spots before we take losses. So far, Codero, Renfroe, Dalbec and Plawecki haven't helped the cause a lot. We have Chavis, Duran, Santana, Downs, Wong, Mata and Seabold who may be ready. I would also think management should look at going over the CBT if they can materially strengthen the team.

 

Codero is having major struggles and has options. Renfroe is not far behind. Dalbec and Plaweki probably deserve a longer look. The time is now.

 

I think the front office thinks the time is then. They probably want guys like Duran, Downs and Wong to at least get in a few months of regular minor league playing time first. There's no reason to bring up any of them unless they will be full-timers, which goes against the big league club's versatile platoon plans. Unless the Red Sox are out of it mid-season -- or have injuries -- don't expect these prospects to be up until late summer.

 

Instead, as has been mentioned, position player roster changes may include names with MLB experience, like Santana or a part-time outfielder from somewhere else. As for the mound, we all expect Houck to be part of the show sooner rather than later. Mata is TJed; seeya in '23.

[Nick]

Bloom is just what this team needed.

 

Have you forgotten he had about 10 slots to fill on the 26 plus 10 more on the bottom end of the 40- all with a very limited budget?

 

Plawecki has a .768 OPS with the Sox.

 

Dalbec is at .828 since his call up- amazing for someone's first 150 PAs in MLB.

 

Kike is hitting his career OPS.

 

You should look beyond a 4 less than week sample size.

 

Everything you say have merits. But I always look for ways to improve the team. It's Houck and Whitlock at this moment.

 

Just because Cora wants Kike to leadoff doesn't mean Kike is suited to lead off. This has nothing to do with a jerk fan like me thinks he knows more than Cora. The question no one has asked Cora is why do you think Kike would make a good leadoff hitter after not leading off in his career?

[moonslav59]

I think the front office thinks the time is then. They probably want guys like Duran, Downs and Wong to at least get in a few months of regular minor league playing time first. There's no reason to bring up any of them unless they will be full-timers, which goes against the big league club's versatile platoon plans. Unless the Red Sox are out of it mid-season -- or have injuries -- don't expect these prospects to be up until late summer.

 

Instead, as has been mentioned, position player roster changes may include names with MLB experience, like Santana or a part-time outfielder from somewhere else. As for the mound, we all expect Houck to be part of the show sooner rather than later. Mata is TJed; seeya in '23.

 

Plus, guys like Houck and Whitlock will likely be on a 120-140 innings limit plan. Why use them all up before September and maybe even October, God willing?

[Bellhorn04]

Everything you say have merits. But I always look for ways to improve the team. It's Houck and Whitlock at this moment.

 

Just because Cora wants Kike to leadoff doesn't mean Kike is suited to lead off. This has nothing to do with a jerk fan like me thinks he knows more than Cora. The question no one has asked Cora is why do you think Kike would make a good leadoff hitter after not leading off in his career?

 

Simple answer: Verdugo would be the best leadoff hitter. But Verdugo is also the best number two hitter.

[moonslav59]

Everything you say have merits. But I always look for ways to improve the team. It's Houck and Whitlock at this moment.

 

Just because Cora wants Kike to leadoff doesn't mean Kike is suited to lead off. This has nothing to do with a jerk fan like me thinks he knows more than Cora. The question no one has asked Cora is why do you think Kike would make a good leadoff hitter after not leading off in his career?

 

I hear ya, and I'm not defending Kike at leadoff.

 

I'm not sure moving the hot hitters around in the line-up on a daily or weekly basis is a good plan, either.

 

1. You may be taking them out of their comfort zone and putting them in a more pressurized slot.

2. Current hot streaks do not guarantee continued hot hitting.

3. Putting our best hitters up 1-2-3-4 leaves a big gap from 5-9, and studies show the 5 slot is more important than the 3 slot.

 

Criticizing Bloom for getting players that are not great with the spending budget he had is just beyond me. Sorry, but when you can only sign guys like Renfroe, Marwin, Kike, Perez and Sawamura, it should be expected some don't do all that well. If you look at how Bloom radically changed almost half the 40 man roster in one winter with a very limited winter spending budget, I think he did a superb job, especially on the 27-40 slots on the 40 man roster and the farm. That was the top priority, this winter- not to build a team of over-priced studs.

 

Some context is needed.

 

It's almost like the more we win, the more people are getting upset we didn't build a better team. Had we started 10-12, we'd be more accepting that this is a bridge season.

 

The fact that a in a bridge year, we are off to such a good start should be a credit to Bloom & Cora, but instead we hear hyper criticisms left and right (not just from you.)

[moonslav59]

Simple answer: Verdugo would be the best leadoff hitter. But Verdugo is also the best number two hitter.

 

Yes, and moving any of our best 4 hitters into the one slot just creates a gaping hole in the slot he moves from.

 

In theory, the 3rd slot should have one of our non top 4 hitter, but who?

 

Vaz is slumping.

Dalbec looked to be coming alive, but has stumbled, recently.

Kike has been one of our hottest non 4 hitters the past couple weeks.

Arroyo looks like the best, if you go by just 2021 numbers, but does anyone really want him hitting 3rd?

The Renfroe-Cordero platoon has not really been a platoon, and is off to a horrific start. They should not be rewarded for poor hitting.

Marwin? I hate to say it, but he might be the best choice, for now.

 

1. Verdugo

2. Bogey

3. Marwin

4. JD

5. Devers

6-9 Does it matter much?