A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

They lead in runs because the BABIP is unsustainably high for some of the hitters. They don't lead in runs because Kiké hits a leadoff HR and then goes 4 AB's without getting on base.

 

Unless you think he is like Liquid Plumber and he keeps those bases free for Verdugo, Bogaerts, etc, to flow freely around them and bypass that nasty hair clog...

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW - a lot in this case - Kimmi says the lineup doesn't really have a big impact on runs over the course of the season and it's more important to have players in the spots they're comfortable with.

[mvp 78]

FWIW - a lot in this case - Kimmi says the lineup doesn't really have a big impact on runs over the course of the season and it's more important to have players in the spots they're comfortable with.

 

But how about the lineups I'm comfortable with? That has merit too.

[Bellhorn04]

But how about the lineups I'm comfortable with? That has merit too.

 

It has a lot of merit, for you.

[mvp 78]

It has a lot of merit, for you.

 

That's what I'm saying!

[moonslav59]

That's what I'm saying!

 

Kinda what we all think.

[mvp 78]

Kinda what we all think.

 

Everyone should discuss what they are thinking has merit.

 

Saying "well, Bloom/Cora knows more than you or I" or "who cares, they are winning" really just stifles conversation.

[kenmeister]

I find it hard to believe the metrics that say the 4 and 5 slots are more important than the 3 slot and that even #6 is close to #3, but I do think it is right.

 

I like Devers 5th. JD seems like the perfect clean-up hitter. Since the 2 slot should be your best hitter- put Bogey there. That leaves Verdugo for the 1, 3 or 6 slot. I choose 1. So....

 

1. Verdugo

2. Bogey

3. Vaz

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Arroyo (for now, anyway)

7. Hernandez

8. Cordero/Renfroe

9. Dalbec

 

As the season goes on, maybe the 6-9 slots are juggled. Maybe Dalbec or Cordero/Renfroe move to the 3 slot, if Vaz slumps.

 

We don't really have 5 clear best hitters: we have 4, so one slot always seems to get short-changed.

 

Slight tweak.

 

 

1. Verdugo

2. Bogey

3. Vaz

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Arroyo/Gonzalez

7. Dalbec

8. Cordero/Renfroe

9. Hernandez

[Maxbialystock]

They lead in runs because the BABIP is unsustainably high for some of the hitters. They don't lead in runs because Kiké hits a leadoff HR and then goes 4 AB's without getting on base.

 

Actually, my argument is that maybe Hernandez is "taking a bullet" for everyone else. Maybe nobody wants to lead off or maybe no one is suited for it. Too much pressure. So the other 8 hitters benefit by not having to lead off.

 

I completely agree that Hernandez's stats are not at all what you want leading off.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, my argument is that maybe Hernandez is "taking a bullet" for everyone else. Maybe nobody wants to lead off or maybe no one is suited for it. Too much pressure. So the other 8 hitters benefit by not having to lead off.

 

I'm not too keen on that argument.

[Maxbialystock]

Everyone should discuss what they are thinking has merit.

 

Saying "well, Bloom/Cora knows more than you or I" or "who cares, they are winning" really just stifles conversation.

 

You're right, of course. It's talksox, not smileandnodyourheadsox, which would be absolutely no fun at all.

[mvp 78]

Actually, my argument is that maybe Hernandez is "taking a bullet" for everyone else. Maybe nobody wants to lead off or maybe no one is suited for it. Too much pressure. So the other 8 hitters benefit by not having to lead off.

 

I completely agree that Hernandez's stats are not at all what you want leading off.

 

Verdugo was great at it last year.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo was great at it last year.

 

He did better than kike is now, but it was not his best slot.

 

.804 in the one slot/.844 overall.

 

.362 OBP/ .367 overall.

 

Career (OBP/OPS) 140+ PAs listed

.380/939 8th

.344/.760 1st

.331/.748 6th

.317/.799 2nd

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I'm not too keen on that argument.

 

Hey, it’s possible. I agree, not likely. But possible...

[notin]

Everyone should discuss what they are thinking has merit.

 

Saying "well, Bloom/Cora knows more than you or I" or "who cares, they are winning" really just stifles conversation.

 

At some point, defending the status quo is part of the conversation...

[Bellhorn04]

At some point, defending the status quo is part of the conversation...

 

Agreed. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is just an opinion too.

[notin]

Agreed. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is just an opinion too.

 

I know.

 

We don't have to change everything. And the only things we all agree on are 1) Josh Taylor needs to go to Worcester very quickly, 2) Hunter Renfroe need not face RHP, and 3) any beer purchased at the ballpark tastes like a melted candle.

 

Other than that...

[moonslav59]

I know.

 

We don't have to change everything. And the only things we all agree on are 1) Josh Taylor needs to go to Worcester very quickly, 2) Hunter Renfroe need not face RHP, and 3) any beer purchased at the ballpark tastes like a melted candle.

 

Other than that...

 

At this moment, I do think sending Taylor packing is more important than finding someone else to lead off or take the rotation slot held by Richards.

 

I also think Renfroe should just face lefties. The way Arroyo, Marwin and Cordero are playing, there's no reason for him to start ve a righty.

 

I don't drink beer at the ballpark, and part of the reason is just what you pointed out- it has melted candle wax finish.

 

[Kimmi]

Everyone should discuss what they are thinking has merit.

 

Saying "well, Bloom/Cora knows more than you or I" or "who cares, they are winning" really just stifles conversation.

 

When Cora first announced that Kike' was going to lead off, I was so against the idea that I posted something to the effect of disowning Cora as my manager. Statistically speaking, Kike' has no business being a leadoff hitter. FTR, like you, I would have left Verdugo in the leadoff spot.

 

That said, my belief has always been that the way a manager manages his players is far more important than any in game decisions. When I say that I trust Cora's judgment, it is because of his ability to relate to his players and get the most out of them. He knows best how to put them in a position to make them successful.

 

As Bell pointed out, batting order really doesn't make as big a difference as most people think it does. Because of that, it's probably more beneficial to bat players where they feel comfortable as opposed to batting them where they should statistically bat.

 

There will likely come a time when Kike' needs to be dropped down in the order.

[Nick]

All of you keep talking about hitting where they're most comfortable.

 

Has anyone ever asked Kike where he wants to bat? It was not his idea to lead off. It was his coach.

 

We're not consistent in our thought process.

[Nick]

Pivetta with 63 pitches through first 5 innings, one walk, 0 hits. Our overall pitching is not that bad. Edited April 23, 2021 by Nick

[kenmeister]

Ottavino sucks.

[a700hitter]

Ottavino sucks.

Terrible fielder.

[moonslav59]

I'm sure many pitchers could say some what ifs like Pivetta can, but had Cora pulled him after 5 innings in game 2 and 4, his numbers would be:

 

IP H ER BB

5.0 2 0 4

5.0 5 1 2

3.2 4 2 4

5.0 0 0 1

 

Total

18.2 IP

11 hits

3 ERs

11 BB

 

The BB rate is still really bad, but 11 hits in 18.2 is better than decent, and his ERA might have been 1.45.

[illinoisredsox]

Terrible fielder.

 

Also Yankee stench

[Bellhorn04]

All of you keep talking about hitting where they're most comfortable.

 

Has anyone ever asked Kike where he wants to bat? It was not his idea to lead off. It was his coach.

 

We're not consistent in our thought process.

 

What gives you the idea Kike didn't tell Cora he liked to bat leadoff. You have some further info on that?

[notin]

Pivetta with 63 pitches through first 5 innings, one walk, 0 hits. Our overall pitching is not that bad.

 

His 18/14 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired...

[moonslav59]

His 18/14 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired...

 

It sure does.

 

He's always had issues with the high BB/9 rate (3.4 before this year). At this age, I doubt he "gets over it."

 

I still like him more than Perez, and so far, he's done better than Richards.

[mvp 78]

What gives you the idea Kike didn't tell Cora he liked to bat leadoff. You have some further info on that?

 

Kiké has spent the vast majority of his career hitting either 1st or 7th - 8th. His WRC+ is the same for 1st and 8th. His numbers are about the same at both spots. My guess is that he doesn't have a preference for where he hits, but Cora likes his skillset at leadoff.

[mvp 78]

All of you keep talking about hitting where they're most comfortable.

 

Has anyone ever asked Kike where he wants to bat? It was not his idea to lead off. It was his coach.

 

We're not consistent in our thought process.

 

I don't like Kiké hitting leadoff, but I also don't necessarily want the players filling out the lineup card.